barryb Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Thats not nice Thomass. You are a bitter person T. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 41 minutes ago, barryb said: Thats not nice Thomass. You are a bitter person T. Cmon B...tell us why you stopped the two tipping experiments...and why you've reverted to trying out PLACE betting now... ...even though you claim you're ALL OVER this punting game? Muddygrass would be apoplectic if he heard you place betting...I'd only included a few in my 10k multi to multiply the Superior Black type form x 2 x 2... ..You however are trying straight out Place betting...each to their own if it's successful... ..but Muddy would come down hard on you if he found out..are you prepared for that...or would you enjoy the spray?? Lets forget the b/s B...come back into the bosom...and we'll let you suck on the Cloak of knowledge... You know you want to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Its to do with a concept called value which you would struggle to understand T, I will try and make it as basic as possible so you can at least get the gist. 1 or 2 bookies offer place odds significantly above competitiors and miles above NZ TAB. for example: NZ TAB might be $7.50 Other bookies between $7.50 & $10.00 These 1 or 2 $12.00 - $14.00 Now that is an opportunity to exploit T, which I have done, now the amounts they will take is low before moving so its often first in first served, it was a nice little earn whilst it existed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 (edited) 1.You haven't answered why the two tipping experiments have been shelved or do we take it that it is self evident from the terrible results? 2. Have you spoken with Greg Carpenter yet? Edited July 1, 2019 by All The Aces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, All The Aces said: 2. Have you spoken with Greg Carpenter yet? So on the basis of 2 races you conclude that weight is a very important factor in racing?. Please advise how much stock you put in it? is it 10% or 20% or higher?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Have a read of this, sums it up perfectly. https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-premium/simon-rowlands/myth-busting-weight-does-not-matter-180313-43.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 1 hour ago, barryb said: Its to do with a concept called value which you would struggle to understand T, I will try and make it as basic as possible so you can at least get the gist. 1 or 2 bookies offer place odds significantly above competitiors and miles above NZ TAB. for example: NZ TAB might be $7.50 Other bookies between $7.50 & $10.00 These 1 or 2 $12.00 - $14.00 Now that is an opportunity to exploit T, which I have done, now the amounts they will take is low before moving so its often first in first served, it was a nice little earn whilst it existed. Fear enough B...if it's gonnnne though..let's just move on from that misPlaced thinking shall we? Yea, we ALL get the value consepsis...anyone who doesn't will probably die from it... As I've stated numerous times on here...moi's value quotient cumulatively increases as the price lengthens... alors...if a superior black type former... or any superior form for that matter...is priced at 10's...and I'm on at that price...and that neddy starts at 20's...then Ive cumulatively increased the stake on that needy to double what it would have normally been... Take O'GUY....I valued him at 10 units...taking into account the course, Blinkers, recent activations criteria...and 8's was already value... ..therefore each increase above that level is even more profit from the increased investment...win win Getting back to weight though... Im all over young legs as you know...less convictions...less issues...neddys coming through the grades and on LOWER weights... usually...in big races... Cross Counter was most certainly in that category last year... So WEIGHT matters... especially on our very Heavy 11 tracks...in O'GUY's case... ...not so much..especially after proving he can handle that weight when winning previously.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 How good was Glory Days placed. Wins 2 R72 races at Hawera and New Plymouth with 56.5kgs & 58.5kgs after claiming 3kgs each time. Goes to the Waverley Cup and wins that with 54kgs by over four lengths and then easily takes out the Wanganui Cup with 55kgs making it four on the trot. Absolutely slaughtered in the Manawatu Cup before a strong second in the Wairarapa Breeders Stakes at wfa with 57kgs. Then comes out and wins the Avondale Cup with 52kgs and followed that up with an easy win in the Auckland SW & P carrying 53.5kgs. Pops across the Tasman and runs third in the Sydney Cup with 52kgs (the winner carried 51kgs). Won close to three quarters of a million now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, barryb said: So on the basis of 2 races you conclude that weight is a very important factor in racing?. Please advise how much stock you put in it? is it 10% or 20% or higher?. In respect of those two races I immediately put a line through the number 1 saddlecloth winning those races. I am well ahead on the ledger as you would have seen. PS. Why do you keep avoiding Q1 when it has been put to you (by 2 people in this thread alone)? Admission of failure is the first step....hello, my name is Barry and I'm..... Edited July 1, 2019 by All The Aces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 31 minutes ago, All The Aces said: In respect of those two races I immediately put a line through the number 1 saddlecloth winning those races. I am well ahead on the ledger as you would have seen. So no 2 that is .5kg below no 1 you don't put a line through? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 Do your homework Bazza. The average winning weight in the Melbourne Cup is 54kgs which also matches winners in the last decade. Since Makyby Diva won with 58kgs in 2005 no other winner since has carried more than 56.5kgs. But then you wouldn't know that because you never factor in weight carried. Have you rung Greg Carpenter yet....and you still haven't given an explanation for abandoning your two tipping forays showing everyone how it is done.....not!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 No I dont factor n weight in any race, I have no idea how to calculate it effectively to be able gain any value out of it. I dont do blanket removals, like never backing No1 or back markers on so called bias surfaces, blinkers on makes them run faster, the trainer says so and so or any other absurd theory I have read from you and T. I have data from over 30,000 races across Australasia and it shows me weight is not a factor that is worth me spending any time on. My energy is better spent on Predicted Pace and in running positions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 45 minutes ago, All The Aces said: Do your homework Bazza. The average winning weight in the Melbourne Cup is 54kgs which also matches winners in the last decade. Since Makyby Diva won with 58kgs in 2005 no other winner since has carried more than 56.5kgs. But then you wouldn't know that because you never factor in weight carried. Have you rung Greg Carpenter yet....and you still haven't given an explanation for abandoning your two tipping forays showing everyone how it is done.....not!! So on that analysis you wouldn't have backed Makaybe Diva in her 2nd and 3rd Cups? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 Not sure how you worked that out from the above Chief? I just mentioned what the average winning weight is for this race. To get to an average you can higher and lower weighted winners. The fact is that only one top weighted runner in the last 65 years has won the race and as I pointed out that was Makybe Diva. Didn't in the third one Chief as she was top weight and I never back the top weight in the Melbourne Cup. For the obvious reason as pointed out. There was no reason to not back her in the first and second cups, she carried 51kgs in the first and in the second one she carried 55.5kgs well off top weight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 2 hours ago, barryb said: No I dont factor n weight in any race, I have no idea how to calculate it effectively to be able gain any value out of it. I dont do blanket removals, like never backing No1 or back markers on so called bias surfaces, blinkers on makes them run faster, the trainer says so and so or any other absurd theory I have read from you and T. I have data from over 30,000 races across Australasia and it shows me weight is not a factor that is worth me spending any time on. My energy is better spent on Predicted Pace and in running positions. Absurd bazz? Absurd's telling McKee he was wrong when he said they helped the neddy win... ...if that's the case...he must have run faster with them on than if he had them off... ...btw I'm VERY sure you've spruiked up your "massive chance at odds' n sods with "3 kegs off will help big time" Ill fish it up for yous and Muddy if you want me to..Its in da notes somewhere? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 (edited) Please tell us in Handicaps why the lightest weighted doesn’t win 50% or more races, as using the logic you have given, it must be able to run faster? and if it’s got blinkers then it’s a cert. Edited July 1, 2019 by barryb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 6 hours ago, barryb said: Please tell us in Handicaps why the lightest weighted doesn’t win 50% or more races, as using the logic you have given, it must be able to run faster? and if it’s got blinkers then it’s a cert. So essentially what you are saying Barry is that winners by weight is evenly distributed relative to the number of horses at each weight. Which would infer that the handicappers are doing their job i.e. handicapping to give every horse a chance. Subsequently you can't factor in weight to determine "value" as it is pointless. However isn't it correct that over all races (not WFA) the highest weighted horses win the most races? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Correct chief, it is also correct that horses going up in weight win significantly more than horses going down in weight. The impact of weight change is small and not worthy of the emphasis placed on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Obviously that stat is connected to 'in form and out of form' horses... ...they're not robots Horses train off and drop in ratings (weight)...a drop in weight won't help an out of form horse Take two comparable performances at Set weights/WFA... Back to a handicap I'm adding 0.2 sec per 1 1/2kgs to the neddy on the lower weight... Of course I take into account wide without cover, unlucky, unsuitable conditions... Whereas Bazz and his mate take no notice of those considerations "last 3 starts ignore" Every single start I'm looking for reasons to increase/decrease the performance quotient of a neddy ...and of course our Winter bog tracks accentuates the weight advantage... ...hence the stat last week of 13 races in a row in the CD won by claimers... ...a coincidence? Yea na 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLB2.0 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Mmmhmm - if weight had little difference, then why would trainers put on 4kg apprentices who don't know how to steer a horse, as opposed to an experienced rider? Oh I know... the drop in weight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said: Mmmhmm - if weight had little difference, then why would trainers put on 4kg apprentices who don't know how to steer a horse, as opposed to an experienced rider? Oh I know... the drop in weight. Please do tell us by what % does a 4kg apprentice increase the winning chances of say a horse weighted at 59kg. How much for Good, Dead,Slow Heavy. I need to understand how to allocate the advantage or do I just take it as a given its chances will increase because a Trainer thinks so?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 (edited) 10 hours ago, barryb said: Please tell us in Handicaps why the lightest weighted doesn’t win 50% or more races, as using the logic you have given, it must be able to run faster? and if it’s got blinkers then it’s a cert. One significant reason Bazza, seeing you don't know to factor weight as stated above, is that there is minimum weight standards applied. Therefore a lot of those on the bottom of the handicap due to that minimum weight restriction are not getting the correct weight they should be getting in a real free handicap ie they are closer to the higher weighted horses than they should be. The weight spread between top weight and bottom weight being constricted. So even though they are sitting on the bottom of the handicap they are still badly weighted which is why they find it difficult to win. A perfect example is: Grey Way got beaten by a horse at Riccarton by a neck when it carried 46kgs whilst Grey Way carried 61.5kgs. I would bet you a dollar to a doughnut if the winner had to carry the minimum of 54kgs now a days that Grey Way would have won. Edited July 2, 2019 by All The Aces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, All The Aces said: One significant reason Bazza, seeing you don't know to factor weight as stated above, is that there is minimum weight standards applied. Therefore a lot of those on the bottom of the handicap due to that minimum weight restriction are not getting the correct weight they should be getting in a real free handicap ie they are closer to the higher weighted horses than they should be. The weight spread between top weight and bottom weight being constricted. So even though they are sitting on the bottom of the handicap they are still badly weighted which is why they find it difficult to win. A perfect example is: Grey Way got beaten by a horse at Riccarton by a neck when it carried 46kgs whilst Grey Way carried 61.5kgs. I would bet you a dollar to a doughnut if the winner had to carry the minimum of 54kgs now a days that Grey Way would have won. Perhaps so but a wider handicap spread isn't the current reality. If anything your latest post supports the analysis that weight isn't a factor in determining value. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, barryb said: Please do tell us by what % does a 4kg apprentice increase the winning chances of say a horse weighted at 59kg. How much for Good, Dead,Slow Heavy. I need to understand how to allocate the advantage or do I just take it as a given its chances will increase because a Trainer thinks so?. Do you ever take note of what weight a horse carries when it has won Bazza. A lo of horses are unable to carry decent weights to win. They get to a certain winning weight level, get handicapped above their maximum winning weight and then struggle to win. When they lose enough points and their allocated weight has come back down to what they can win with they can hit winning form again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Perhaps so but a wider handicap spread isn't the current reality. If anything your latest post supports the analysis that weight isn't a factor in determining value. I am not trying to determine value at all, that is a different subjective topic. Barry has stated that he never takes notice of weight ever!! I have merely pointed to two of the biggest handicap races in Australasia and shown that top weights rarely can win those races. the evidence is compelling. He doesn't factor that in whereas I factor that statistic quite significantly when assessing those races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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