Thomass Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 So the connections of this honest Mare appear to be getting 'excited' about their Tazzie sojourn... ...actually...almost euphoric..such is their excitement... Perhaps in part their thinking she'll get a turbo boost from being...'up da duff'.... They can be forgiven for thinking this though...most do Unfortunately for them the 'analysis' has been done and it's found to be a NEGATIVE Thats right....they mostly reverse performance... The only 'get out' they have...is that those that do improve...a small %...improve consistency and performance nicely.... Good luck with that then...you'll need it...otherwise 'custard face' is looking the winning % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 To be fair that race tomorrow at Caulfield isn't particularly strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagship uberalles Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 (edited) 7 hours ago, Thomass said: So the connections of this honest Mare appear to be getting 'excited' about their Tazzie sojourn... ...actually...almost euphoric..such is their excitement... Perhaps in part their thinking she'll get a turbo boost from being...'up da duff'.... They can be forgiven for thinking this though...most do Unfortunately for them the 'analysis' has been done and it's found to be a NEGATIVE Thats right....they mostly reverse performance... The only 'get out' they have...is that those that do improve...a small %...improve consistency and performance nicely.... Good luck with that then...you'll need it...otherwise 'custard face' is looking the winning % Good to see you back thommo, I'd heard you had run out of puff!! Are you having a dig at the short gay blond one out of Hudson and Hall? Leo does resemble him Edited October 15, 2019 by Flagship uberalles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 Cheers flag....Ive been away seeking treatment for ellipsisdosis...alas it failed... Yes both resemble a pregnant Mare to be fear...too many Custard squares possibly? But just for you and the non believers out there...some light reading As is the case with any statistical study, one of the most important requirements is that there is enough data collected to make the conclusions drawn from it as reliable as possible. With this in mind, I examined all the data from the seven years from the beginning of 2009 through to the end of 2015. This resulted in the identification of a total of 443 qualifiers that raced on the Flat in Great Britain and Ireland while in foal. Once this set of data was isolated, the next step was to come up with a fair methodology to assess their racing performance whilst pregnant. In terms of the basics, the number of runs and wins after their last covering date was recorded in each case. After that, ‘improvement’ was defined as registering a career-best Racing Post Rating while in foal. This improvement was then measured by the difference between their best pre-pregnancy rating and their best rating whilst pregnant. The research revealed that 443 in-foal fillies and mares had a total of 1,549 starts while pregnant, an average of 3.5 starts each, and they achieved a win strike-rate of 8.26%. To put that into context, the win strike-rate of the entire population of 3-year-old and older fillies and mares in Great Britain and Ireland in the same period was 9.35%. Thus, the strike rate of pregnant runners was 11.7% lower than non-pregnant fillies and mares. This is a statistically significant difference that would not have been at all expected by many. What makes this so surprising is that even if pregnancy had no positive effect on racing performance, it would have been expected that the strike-rate of pregnant runners would have been higher than that of non-pregnant runners, as there is almost certainly a positive selection bias at play in the pregnant group. As well as it being likely that the quality and pedigree of those chosen to race while pregnant would be above average, what is certain is that with trainers having a maximum of just 120 days to race them while pregnant, they would be pulling out every stop to get them in the winner’s enclosure and/or show improvement. Thus, for them to have a below-average strike rate is very much an unexpected eye-opener. There were more surprising results to be found when the sample was examined in search of how many of the pregnant runners showed improvement. Just 67 (15.1%) produced career-best efforts while pregnant, with the average rate of improvement being 5.8lb. A total of 13 (2.9%) improved by 10lb or more and 23lb was the most improvement shown by an individual. While there isn’t an appropriate means to compare these percentages against the overall population as was done with the win strike-rates above, given just how widely it is considered that pregnancy brings about improvement in racing performance, that 84.9% of the fillies/mares in this sample did not show any improvement is surprising. Similar statistics were revealed when the performance of fillies/mares that raced over jumps while in-foal during the same period were examined as part of this study. While the sample is smaller with just 169 qualifiers, their strike-rate over jumps was 7.4% compared to 7.81% for all 4-year-old and older fillies/mares over jumps in the same period. The percentage of those that produced career-best efforts over jumps while pregnant was just 12.4%. Thus, rather than supporting the commonly-held view that being in foal is a positive for a racing filly/mare, this data suggests that being in foal could actually have a negative influence on racing performance. While it remains to be seen whether this significant new evidence will have any effect on the popularity of putting fillies and mares in foal while they are in training, it will hopefully serve to better inform breeders, pundits and the racing public in how they consider such situations. Kevin Blake TDN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 So I guess you have changed your mind and you are now in the camp where you don't need to be told if a mare is in foal if it is racing? Afterall in terms of selecting a winner it has no significantly measurable impact. Finally he learns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 I don't want to inform you of the bleedin' obvious.... ...but I'm selecting the option of reducing said BP selections by a unit until those that do race well 'in foal' arrive at the 'bleedin' obvious queue... Besides this is my baby after convincing Ross Neal of the need to inform Punters of this important consideration...so it resonates strongly in moi's thinking process Unfortunately the likes of Red Sharrock thinks he doesn't need to inform the Feds of his Mare ART DECO being "safely in foal"... ...he should be instantly fined for being ignorant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Statistics are a stupidity These mares are past their best and have been sent to stud -obviously a better career choice than racing them for another season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 But many of these owners think they'll get a kick out of the go fast hormones fred? ...mainly Stud farms who love dealing in hormones... CONSENSUS battled away ok once headed...but it looks as if the go slow pregnant hormones are starting to kick in...40 plus days isn't she?...and she's heading to the losing % block for up the duff Mares ...good luck racing with losing hormones then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Thomass said: But many of these owners think they'll get a kick out of the go fast hormones fred? ...mainly Stud farms who love dealing in hormones... CONSENSUS battled away ok once headed...but it looks as if the go slow pregnant hormones are starting to kick in...40 plus days isn't she?...and she's heading to the losing % block for up the duff Mares ...good luck racing with losing hormones then.. Thanks for the advice Thomass From someone who has owned so many group one winners, made such a mark in the industry and who backs the winner in every race (not to mention your literary skills) it is very much appreciated. I've passed it on to McKee(who after all knows nothing about training compared to you) with a recommendation that the plug will be pulled immediately. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, Reefton said: Thanks for the advice Thomass From someone who has owned so many group one winners, made such a mark in the industry and who backs the winner in every race (not to mention your literary skills) it is very much appreciated. I've passed it on to McKee(who after all knows nothing about training compared to you) with a recommendation that the plug will be pulled immediately. I only wish the best for you and the Mare reefer... Moi's point was the wee fella was spruiking up the excitement factor to levels not even he's ever reached.... ...I wanted to warn him that the oft repeated narrative with up da duff Mares was that it's a fools belief... ...while keen in the lead...the go slow preggers hormones appeared to click in... ...I hope I'm Wong...but I've never ever been before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Thomass said: I only wish the best for you and the Mare reefer... Moi's point was the wee fella was spruiking up the excitement factor to levels not even he's ever reached.... ...I wanted to warn him that the oft repeated narrative with up da duff Mares was that it's a fools belief... ...while keen in the lead...the go slow preggers hormones appeared to click in... ...I hope I'm Wong...but I've never ever been before... He's got a veterinary science degree Thomass so I guess is as well qualified as any to have an opinion. But given he doesn't frequent this site why don't you hop down to the Viaduct and express your thoughts in person? Perhaps we could get Morty along to record the event(the audio will do little man as the visual might contravene Jacinda's new rules about carnage being replayed on the internet). I have heard back from McKee who has immediately given himself one hell of an uppercut for being so stupid and expressed his deep regret that in his time with Sunline he did not have access to your wise counsel in all things racing for he feels she might well have gone unbeaten throughout her career. In fact he did enquire whether you might be prepared to put your thoughts on the topic on paper and deliver them out to Ardmore? Apparently they are in the rather embarrassing position of having run out of bog rolls out there today and are quite desperate for a suitable substitute. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 Oh that degree... Let me tell you there was general mass mirth around the sales yards when he walked the aisles...when we showed him around...it's sort of carried over into 'hospo' with bizarre behaviours being displayed in the Media... Back to neddys though and their hormones... WRT Maiden Mares and their first venture into making love... One of moi's first jobs was as head teaser operator...to prepare a maiden for her first service we'd slap the wee fella on...and off..on again...his wee fella getting close but not close enough...poor Welsh sod.... ...sometimes when our 3rd stand by Welsh pony became soured at the end of the season... ...I'd have to resort to pinching the Fillies flanks myself with said soured pony...head bowed...alongside the masterful lover...Moi But let me tell you where this leads...the change in attitude of a Maiden Mare after all of this hanky lanky and the service by the Stud...was remarkable Hence I told Ross Neal Punters need to know when a service date had been actioned...and today's rule mirrors that...thanks Mr. Neal ..although ignorami like Big Red simply ignores the rule...hence his Mare went unreported on Saturday...let's hope he gets fined ..anyway...I digest Tell Stick the only kick back he may have got was in the first 2 weeks before the hormones kicked in... ...Thats now gone...and the slow hormones of 40 days plus appeared to have slowed things a bit...and you only need a bit in town hall company.. ...best anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 8 hours ago, Thomass said: Oh that degree... Let me tell you there was general mass mirth around the sales yards when he walked the aisles...when we showed him around...it's sort of carried over into 'hospo' with bizarre behaviours being displayed in the Media... Back to neddys though and their hormones... WRT Maiden Mares and their first venture into making love... One of moi's first jobs was as head teaser operator...to prepare a maiden for her first service we'd slap the wee fella on...and off..on again...his wee fella getting close but not close enough...poor Welsh sod.... ...sometimes when our 3rd stand by Welsh pony became soured at the end of the season... ...I'd have to resort to pinching the Fillies flanks myself with said soured pony...head bowed...alongside the masterful lover...Moi But let me tell you where this leads...the change in attitude of a Maiden Mare after all of this hanky lanky and the service by the Stud...was remarkable Hence I told Ross Neal Punters need to know when a service date had been actioned...and today's rule mirrors that...thanks Mr. Neal ..although ignorami like Big Red simply ignores the rule...hence his Mare went unreported on Saturday...let's hope he gets fined ..anyway...I digest Tell Stick the only kick back he may have got was in the first 2 weeks before the hormones kicked in... ...Thats now gone...and the slow hormones of 40 days plus appeared to have slowed things a bit...and you only need a bit in town hall company.. ...best anyway Go and tell him all this Thomass. there is no point you being on here playing the big man - most people here(because they are here) agree with your views on him so you are preaching to the converted You are now somehow venturing into the areas of how they get the mares in foal(clearly you get off on that from the detailed way you describe it). It may surprise you but the way mares get in foal has not changed for thousands of years(if not millions) and I think most of us have a vague idea. For your info Consensus was not a maiden mare anyway(in terms of never having been to a stallion before) having been to Tavistock twice two years ago but didn't get in foal either time. Your tread started by disputing the effect being in foal had on mares - now you are trying to tell us how to get them in foal. And you once again shoot yourself in the foot by whinging about Sharrock not declaring this mare being in foal. After droning on about being in foal not affecting a mare's performance why are you demanding Sharrock disclose?(Don't answer that - it is a rhetorical question - have a look in the dictionary what rhetorical means but I am sick of your piffle(again!)) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 Soz for being a tad esoteric reefer... Alors...the intention of the Teaser pony example was to show how a physical experience such as mating can produce a marked behavioural change.. ...obviously this worked in C's case with her excellent form after getting rodgered 2 years ago... Sooooo.... Sharrock's Mare should have been reported, as required, so Punters can DOWNGRADE her chances as per the new study... ...NB...being rodgered can have a positive affect...in Foal a negative..savvy? Lets hope C has the reverse affect because being up the duff certainly settles some Mares allowing a previous highly strung maniacal half wit...to become a deadset normal race horse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 6 hours ago, Thomass said: Soz for being a tad esoteric reefer... Alors...the intention of the Teaser pony example was to show how a physical experience such as mating can produce a marked behavioural change.. ...obviously this worked in C's case with her excellent form after getting rodgered 2 years ago... Sooooo.... Sharrock's Mare should have been reported, as required, so Punters can DOWNGRADE her chances as per the new study... ...NB...being rodgered can have a positive affect...in Foal a negative..savvy? Lets hope C has the reverse affect because being up the duff certainly settles some Mares allowing a previous highly strung maniacal half wit...to become a deadset normal race horse... What a load of shyte! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: What a load of shyte! load of shyte all right the year she got served is the only season she has had(except this one) where she didn't win a race. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theshu Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Good to see the village idiot (thomas) is back and talking crap as usual and winding everyone up. He cannot help himself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 On 16/10/2019 at 9:06 AM, Thomass said: The research revealed that 443 in-foal fillies and mares had a total of 1,549 starts while pregnant, an average of 3.5 starts each, and they achieved a win strike-rate of 8.26%. To put that into context, the win strike-rate of the entire population of 3-year-old and older fillies and mares in Great Britain and Ireland in the same period was 9.35%. Thus, the strike rate of pregnant runners was 11.7% lower than non-pregnant fillies and mares. This is a statistically significant difference that would not have been at all expected by many. This of course is completely useless information and the writer obviously failed research methods 101 and more probably like you is still tring to get through primary school maths. It's laughable that some people believe this garbage. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 The bottom line with Consensus is this. Julie likes racing her. As she said she knows nothing about breeding(relying on the expertise of others) and does not have a property where she can graze her nor does she need the money a foal might bring. She has obviously never had a decent horse before let alone a Group one winner and there is a sentimental element to her in that we originally leased her so that our(now late) Mother could have an interest(even though she was not terribly keen on racehorses and certainly never had the money or inclination to own one). She got talked into sending her to Tavistock two years ago after she won the Zabeel and certainly wasn't too concerned when no positive test eventuated. After all since then the horse has had three Aussie trips and did not disgrace herself when she lined up against the very very best in the QE2 two years ago. Even I got within metres of the the best horse of the generation (Winx) in the Theatre of the Horse at Randwick that day. The horse owes us nothing but given she was healthy and seemed happy it was elected to give her one last campaign this season. Commercial reality(she is a G1 Mare who has won $800k so the foal ought to be worth a dollar assuming it is healthy and correctly formed) is the reason she went to Iffraaj not some hope of turbo charging her performance. And obviously it is very shortly coming to an end. Realistically none of us is going to get one half as good again and so it will be the end of a nice little ride in racing. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 20, 2019 Author Share Posted October 20, 2019 As I said reefer....only wish her and connections the best of success... Never ever said she was sent to Stud to get a "turbo boost" however... It's entirely to do with the BELIEF from connections of Mares that they'll get a boost from the pregnant hormone.. once in foal... ...and your Bro appears to believe that... ...which has very clearly been proven wrong from the analysis FYI when she was first served in December 17, very strange date to be serving a Maiden Mare to be fair, her performances increased from her previous form...as per the 'mental change' I talked about 2 G1 2nds to Kawi and Devise...then to Australia for 4 th in the Ranvet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reefton Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Thomass said: As I said reefer....only wish her and connections the best of success... Never ever said she was sent to Stud to get a "turbo boost" however... It's entirely to do with the BELIEF from connections of Mares that they'll get a boost from the pregnant hormone.. once in foal... ...and your Bro appears to believe that... ...which has very clearly been proven wrong from the analysis FYI when she was first served in December 17, very strange date to be serving a Maiden Mare to be fair, her performances increased from her previous form...as per the 'mental change' I talked about 2 G1 2nds to Kawi and Devise...then to Australia for 4 th in the Ranvet... I've told you several times to take the topic up with him directly Thomass. Are you having difficulty comprehending that? You're brave having a crack at him on a forum you know he doesn't frequent. As for being served in December 17 who said that? She was served early November 2017 then again late November and(obviously) never got in foal either time. But if she had been served in February that is the owner's business not your's so nobody is interested in your opinions on that. And you reckon finishing second to Devise and Kawi indicated her form improved - neither of them will go down as a great of NZ racing and again you are talking utter tripe. The year before she won an NZ G1 and the year after she won an Aussie G2 both of which were far superior performances than running second to those two(especially given the favourable treatment Kawi used to receive at starting gates time) You are confused, incoherent and you know nothing about Consensus Thomass so shut up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 According to the NZTR website she was served by Tavistock on 28/11/2017. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, All The Aces said: According to the NZTR website she was served by Tavistock on 28/11/2017. Yes but she missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 21, 2019 Author Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Reefton said: I've told you several times to take the topic up with him directly Thomass. Are you having difficulty comprehending that? You're brave having a crack at him on a forum you know he doesn't frequent. As for being served in December 17 who said that? She was served early November 2017 then again late November and(obviously) never got in foal either time. But if she had been served in February that is the owner's business not your's so nobody is interested in your opinions on that. And you reckon finishing second to Devise and Kawi indicated her form improved - neither of them will go down as a great of NZ racing and again you are talking utter tripe. The year before she won an NZ G1 and the year after she won an Aussie G2 both of which were far superior performances than running second to those two(especially given the favourable treatment Kawi used to receive at starting gates time) You are confused, incoherent and you know nothing about Consensus Thomass so shut up Sorry you've taken this badly mate... fyi though...KAWI's 7 G 1's does mark him down as a modern great obviously... ...to say anything else is "utter tripe" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, Thomass said: Sorry you've taken this badly mate... fyi though...KAWI's 7 G 1's does mark him down as a modern great obviously... ...to say anything else is "utter tripe" Kawi is a bit like Melody Belle - good horses in NZ but did they really beat anything? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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