BLINKERS first time...The DEFINTIVE stats..,

[Thomass]

First off Chef....don't close threads down when you start getting walloped...ok?

You mentioned something about "Stats proved first time wearers are losers"

yea na...

As Ive said previously here...you're not going to treat an average Trainer the same as a great strike rate Trainer when applying ANY gear...or on 25 starts maidens with no form in the Desperation Stakes...

Or in other races with absolutely no excuses on their recent form...have an open mind and apply some common sense...

 

American wonder-horse Secretariat was known for his blue and white blinkers which certainly had no negative impact on his extraordinary speed!

While the vision of horses is less sharp than that of humans (20/60 as opposed to 20/20), their eyes protrude and can see almost everything barring what is directly behind them and a tiny space in front of their face. When you put blinkers on a horse, he could react very negatively and become overwhelmed by his other senses. As such, first-time blinkers are something of an experiment. So how does this affect you, the punter?

How Do Blinkered Horses Compare to Those Without Headgear?

First of all, you can tell if a horse is blinkered by checking out the race card where there should be a small ‘b’ beside the horse’s name like this:

The ‘b1’ beside the name of Dawaaleeb indicates that it is the horse’s first time wearing blinkers. As you can see, his trainer has a 4-18 record with first-time blinkers so you should be wary about backing this horse as a favourite; or should you?

Here’s how horses with blinkers fared against their non-headgear wearing counterparts from the beginning of 2015 on all UK codes.

Blinkers?	Bets	Wins	Win %	ROI (BF)
Yes	20457	1974	9.65%	-12.05%
No	236372	26412	11.17%	-5.41%

As one might expect, horses wearing blinkers fare poorly overall against horses with no headgear in terms of win percentage and ROI. However, it is worth checking the performances of horses that wore blinkers last time out as well to eliminate first-time wearers from the equation.

Horse wearing blinkers that also wore them last time out since start of 2015

Bets	Wins	Win%	ROI (BF)
12756	1298	10.18%	-15.1%

Let’s compare the above data with horses wearing blinkers that didn’t wear them (or another kind of headgear) in their last race.

Bets	Wins	Win%	ROI (BF)
4288	349	8.14%	-12.57%

Neither set of data is encouraging in the least. At this early stage, it is tempting to dismiss horses with blinkers as a poor bet. Not so fast!

First-Timers

What the data above doesn’t take into account is the performance of horses wearing blinkers for the first time. For a clearer picture, I went as far back as the beginning of 2013, and things changed completely:

Bets	Wins	Win%	ROI (BF)
8426	726	8.62%	-2.18%

To be clear, the SP loss is appalling; over 26%, but on Betfair, it is little more than 2%. The main reason is that horses wearing blinkers (especially for the first-time) tend to have inflated odds; that’s why you almost break even on Betfair despite an incredibly low win ratio.

From a punter’s perspective, it pays to focus on handicap races as you end up with a slight Betfair ROI of 0.35%; albeit with a very low win rate of 8.41%. In terms of code, All-Weather gives you a loss of over 5% while National Hunt and Flat races provide a small profit of over 2% apiece.

Does a Horse With Blinkers Perform Better With Experience?

Since Horseracebase did not enable me to check the performance of horses wearing blinkers for a fourth, fifth or sixth time, etc., I had to rely on data I found on Matt Bisogno’s www.geegeez.co.uk website.

Matt discovered that from 2014-2016 on all UK race codes, horses wearing blinkers for the third time fared best with a 12.74% win rate and an SP ROI loss of 10%.

Overall, Matt reached a very interesting conclusion: Horses wearing blinkers for the third time are the best betting option from a punter’s perspective. He checked Irish and UK racing, handicaps, All-Weather, Flat and National Hunt racing; the data was reasonably similar each time.

In terms of trainers, Matt mentioned Gary Moore as someone with a good record when it comes to first-time blinkers.

Moore’s Record First-Time Blinkers 2013-2017

Bets	Wins	Win%	ROI (BF)
56	13	23.21%	176.64%

All I can say is: Wow! A win rate of over 23% is impressive but look at that ROI!

Final Thoughts

One of the main reasons why a trainer adds blinkers to a horse is to improve early speed. If a horse is a slow starter, blinkers could be the key to getting him in contention. Rather than focusing on the general statistics relating to blinkers, I believe it is critical to look at the record of the trainer.

As a general rule of thumb, ignore trainers with a blinkers win-ratio of below 15% because at that stage, it’s likely they are guessing and experimenting. In contrast, look at trainers such as Gary Moore with win percentages of over 20%. This is an indication that they know precisely what they are doing.

Finally, look at the horse itself. Check a horse’s history to see if it has worn blinkers on other occasions and gauge the performance. If they didn’t work the first time, they are unlikely to make a difference a second time. Look for horses that typically have poor starts without blinkers. The new headgear could be just what they need to make the leap from pretender to contender.

 

[Chief Stipe]

This article has shyte analysis and this topic has been done to death.  It appears you haven't read and or understood the article going by your Topic Title - "first time".....doesn't the article say third time?

I'll give a couple of our more intelligent posters to reply then I'll close the thread because it is becoming boringly repetitive you going over and over and over your crap theories.

[mardigras]

10 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

This article has shyte analysis and this topic has been done to death. 

It certainly has.

Just more useless stupid stats that only a moron would use to justify the ridiculous. It's not worth writing why. I've stated why using stats to assess an upcoming race is flawed. Some can't grasp that. There's little point in repeating it. The best answer is to tell them to go and get a proper education as they missed out the first time. Which is the case with the resident nutter.

[Chief Stipe]

1 minute ago, mardigras said:

It certainly has.

Just more useless stupid stats that only a moron would use to justify the ridiculous. It's not worth writing why. I've stated why using stats to assess an upcoming race is flawed. Some can't grasp that. There's little point in repeating it. The best answer is to tell them to go and get a proper education as they missed out the first time. Which is the case with the resident nutter.

Yes the fact that a horse might be wearing blinkers for the first, third or umpteemth time bears little relationship to its ability RELATIVE to the field it is racing against.

[mardigras]

5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Yes the fact that a horse might be wearing blinkers for the first, third or umpteemth time bears little relationship to its ability RELATIVE to the field it is racing against.

There are no population stats that can give you a relationship with a horses ability relative to its competitors. They don't work that way. Using them like that is flawed. 

[Thomass]

Gee boys...I hope the thread rang some bells in vacant heads when your form ''analynsis came up for the first

IVAN KANE.  (BLINKERS FIRST TIME)

Straight to the front..without tactic change notification...but wtf cares when you're ON.

Great course stats in superior fields...home track...great race Premier day first up..back to mid weak...

20% extra BO...30% extra Course stats at Home...Value at 8's I got 10's

beautiful...gee I'm sounding like Bazz!

 

[curious]

I see since your last fail at posting them before the race you've reverted to posting your successful value bets after the race.

[mardigras]

You did it the hard way. The letter 'I' and the letter 'L' are the letters of the day there today. 

When that happens, you add 100%. 

Luckily got R2 as well. Easy.

[Thomass]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

This article has shyte analysis and this topic has been done to death.  It appears you haven't read and or understood the article going by your Topic Title - "first time".....doesn't the article say third time?

I'll give a couple of our more intelligent posters to reply then I'll close the thread because it is becoming boringly repetitive you going over and over and over your crap theories.

I'm sorry you can't read....

Fyi...the arrogant ignorant 'statsman' started the thread..not moi

...again and as I've said...it's picking and choosing the best Trainers..and the horses that need them by 'observation'

Your idea is that MELODY BELLE doesn't need them and you'd be telling Jammie to get them off ASAP...correct?

[Thomass]

34 minutes ago, curious said:

I see since your last fail at posting them before the race you've reverted to posting your successful value bets after the race.

Again I'm sorry you can't read wee c....

The last tips were the TIPPING MASTERCLASS I gave...

My advice is tell your mate Bazz the same thing from last week...or you'll be called a hypocrite 

"I'm having the best day all year" Bazz...having another Whakachunga 

...yea na

[Chief Stipe]

12 minutes ago, Thomass said:

I'm sorry you can't read....

Fyi...the arrogant ignorant 'statsman' started the thread..not moi

...again and as I've said...it's picking and choosing the best Trainers..and the horses that need them by 'observation'

Your idea is that MELODY BELLE doesn't need them and you'd be telling Jammie to get them off ASAP...correct?

Maybe he should try them off in her next race in OZ after all when she races there with them on she doesn't seem to go that well.  Of course she might be now suffering from one of your Pavlova dog theories and she only thinks it's race day when she has them on.

[All The Aces]

Ivan Kane opened at $16.00FF ? yesterday.  ?

[All The Aces]

And of course blinkers going on Long Jack yesterday. I guess Muzza and Andrew know what they are doing. ☺️

[theshu]

Yes  Thomas they obviously do.

[barryb]

5 hours ago, Thomass said:

Gee boys...I hope the thread rang some bells in vacant heads when your form ''analynsis came up for the first

IVAN KANE.  (BLINKERS FIRST TIME)

Straight to the front..without tactic change notification...but wtf cares when you're ON.

Great course stats in superior fields...home track...great race Premier day first up..back to mid weak...

20% extra BO...30% extra Course stats at Home...Value at 8's I got 10's

beautiful...gee I'm sounding like Bazz!

 

Just such a f--king shame you are no good at deciphering value T.

I placed this the night before at $16, ended up with $14.40 after scr.  Just such a shame that it didn't have a claiming apprentice on as it would have run quicker and won by a wider margin.

[mardigras]

Maybe Thomass should put his bet up since he claimed to have it.

[theshu]

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Maybe Thomass should put his bet up since he claimed to have it.

You know and i know he does not bet.  Only after the races   he has a result.

[All The Aces]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

Just such a f--king shame you are no good at deciphering value T.

I placed this the night before at $16, ended up with $14.40 after scr.  Just such a shame that it didn't have a claiming apprentice on as it would have run quicker and won by a wider margin.

Good too see that you are finally learning Bazza. The horse had never led in his eleven previous starts.

BLINKERS go on for the first time, leads and bolts in. 

 

[curious]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

Just such a f--king shame you are no good at deciphering value T.

I placed this the night before at $16, ended up with $14.40 after scr.  Just such a shame that it didn't have a claiming apprentice on as it would have run quicker and won by a wider margin.

I think you forgot to add the 20% for BO and 30% for course stats?

[mardigras]

9 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

Good too see that you are finally learning Bazza. The horse had never led in his eleven previous starts.

BLINKERS go on for the first time, leads and bolts in. 

 

Love this. Thanks. But really, why do you have to make it so easy for every one else? Why don't you tell us BEFORE the races, the next time blinkers on first time is going to make a positive difference. Can't wait. For every one of these, you'll be not telling us about the 20 others that run down the track. But we do like to hear about the winners. For sure.

[All The Aces]

11 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Love this. Thanks. But really, why do you have to make it so easy for every one else? Why don't you tell us BEFORE the races, the next time blinkers on first time is going to make a positive difference. Can't wait. For every one of these, you'll be not telling us about the 20 others that run down the track. But we do like to hear about the winners. For sure.

Firstly I don't need to prove anything to anyone and secondly I don't do tips. 

But...…..If I like a horse and the blinkers are going on,  it sure as hell gives me some extra confidence for my own bet and that's all that matters in the scheme of things. It's my account balance that counts not anyone else's. ☺️  

Big Ben won well at Te Rapa when the blinkers went back on. ?  I don't give a rat's arse if you want to ignore blinkers on a horse as a factor in your selection strategy but I do and will continue to do so.  I have boosted my bet on one tomorrow as I note the blinkers are going on.  So looking forward to that.

You can ignore blinkers at your own peril, there are others that aren't so silly. ?

 

[mardigras]

3 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

Firstly I don't need to prove anything to anyone and secondly I don't do tips. 

But...…..If I like a horse and the blinkers are going on,  it sure as hell gives me some extra confidence for my own bet and that's all that matters in the scheme of things. It's my account balance that counts not anyone else's. ☺️  

Big Ben won well at Te Rapa when the blinkers went back on. ?  I don't give a rat's arse if you want to ignore blinkers on a horse as a factor in your selection strategy but I do and will continue to do so.  I have boosted my bet on one tomorrow as I note the blinkers are going on.  So looking forward to that.

You can ignore blinkers at your own peril, there are others that aren't so silly. ?

 

You are welcome to think what you like. But the notion of what you suggest has no use to anyone else. So as you basically say - it is 100% meaningless information to anyone else except yourself - since you are unwilling to share as to when it is useful. And clearly you are incapable of demonstrating that it is effective - even for yourself. Although I like the information you have provided post race. Most useful.

Which leads me to repeat my previous indications. Why bother with worrying about the gear change given not a single person here is able to provide a single horse that will benefit from the application - before the races.

Ignoring blinkers has zero affect on my account balance. I punt to win and have done so for years - mostly by ignoring the very thing you are saying I ignore at my peril. I haven't noticed any peril. But thanks for the unsubstantiated advice. 

I love these sites. Full of people with such useful opinion. But when it comes to actual substance. Nothing.

You could say you like backing horses that start with the letter 'L'. And ignoring them is at my own peril. That is how useful your post is. You may even have one tomorrow that is starting with the letter 'L' and that you are looking forward to seeing how that goes. 

Which is why I love people like you. You create the very prices that I exploit. So keep it up. I bet based on the very notion that the gear changes don't work. I bet successfully. You claim you bet based on the very same gear changes being successful for you. But aren't prepared to show that. 

I wonder why? What are you afraid of? Being found out?

[All The Aces]

?

You do it your way Mardi and I'll do it my way. 

I believe blinkers can help a horse as it would appear professional trainers do also. You will excuse me if I take trainer's such as Waller, Baker etc judgement over yours.  

[mardigras]

9 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

?

You do it your way Mardi and I'll do it my way. 

I believe blinkers can help a horse as it would appear professional trainers do also. You will excuse me if I take trainer's such as Waller, Baker etc judgement over yours.  

Of course you can. But what do the readers on here get from you telling them your view. They can't use the information in any way themselves. Your view has told them absolutely zero except apparently you believe blinkers work and maybe even you make money from their use.

That's as useful as me saying I believe horses starting with the letter 'L' works. And I make money from them. And I often see top trainers winning with them also. So excuse me if I trust that method over yours. The readers can't use that information in any way themselves. 

Useful. Nope. Just like your post. Although we do like to hear that you think blinkers are useful and you make money from them. Good on you. Just as they probably like to hear I make money from horses starting with the 'L' - although I doubt readers really want to read that.

Edited October 24, 2019 by mardigras

[barryb]

Shit I hope you are right Mardy, I have backed everything starting with L that has blinkers on today.