Happy Sunrise Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: So if Brodie pitches up next week and puts $1,000 to win on the Spitfire at 80 to 1 should the TAB take his bet or restrict him? Should they? I don't believe the TAB would take the bet without knowing who was putting it on. If it was Brodie the restricted one there is no way they would take it. Then slash the odds. If it was a known losing punter they may take it but slash the odds regardless as they wouldn't be willing to wear the 80 000 loss. 80 to 1 is miles outside their comfort zone so it not a possibility in my eyes regardless of the race. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: He still hasn't answered why wouldn't the TAB override a restriction when the punter puts up a decent size bet on a horse that the TAB has priced as the rank outsider. If the TAB gets the pricing wrong they will change it when a big bet is attempted to be placed on it. In effect, the odds on offer do not exist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Happy Sunrise said: Should they? I don't believe the TAB would take the bet without knowing who was putting it on. Now you are contradicting Mardigras who has posted that the TAB wouldn't do that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said: If the TAB gets the pricing wrong they will change it when a big bet is attempted to be placed on it. In effect, the odds on offer do not exist. Yes but you could argue that they often get the price wrong. That's why Mardigras spend their entire day looking for value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Now you are contradicting Mardigras who has posted that the TAB wouldn't do that. Can you quote where he said that please. I am not sure I am right. Mardigras seems to be very logical in his thinking so it worth listening too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Yes but you could argue that they often get the price wrong. They often get it wrong by opening the horses at odds way under what they should be. A lot of things have to go the punters way for them to get the price favourably wrong for the punter and when a restricted punter tries to take the value there is no guarantee they will get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 16 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Except he is selective in what he chooses to answer. I am selective. I tend to answer on topics I fully understand. I leave the rest to the rest. 17 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: He still hasn't answered why wouldn't the TAB override a restriction when the punter puts up a decent size bet on a horse that the TAB has priced as the rank outsider. Because if the punter has demonstrated they are successful, then why expose the business to unnecessary losses. The TAB doesn't know beforehand which of the bets are going to be winners, they just know that the punter has a record that defies the supposed chance the TAB has given the runners, at the time the bets were placed. That's a significant thing - the odds provided by the TAB have already got margin built into them, yet some punters are able to over-come that margin and well beyond that, to be successful. And now you think they should pick and choose which bets are the ones they are going to lose on. And are you saying winning punters don't bet on rank outsiders? I do. And I'm pretty sure I meet the criteria of a successful punter. In fact, I rarely bet on any runner below 15s and often at 50s to 100s. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 16 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Now you are contradicting Mardigras who has posted that the TAB wouldn't do that. I don't think they would take a thousand on an 80 to 1 horse regardless of any factors. Not in a million years. Have you ever heard the TAB say someone has 1000 on at 80 to 1! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Now you are contradicting Mardigras who has posted that the TAB wouldn't do that. I don't think so. I think you can substitute 'Brodie' with successful punter. Why would they take such a bet from a punter they know to be successful over all. And I doubt they would take it from anyone - although not being privy to their risk management approach, who knows 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Happy Sunrise said: Have you ever heard the TAB say someone has 1000 on at 80 to 1! Actually I have but can't prove that. I know when a horse I had a share in won most of us got on big at 17's. Eventually it was backed into 6's and favourite. The TAB hurt that day. Recently though didn't we have the BGP place a large bet? Sure the odds weren't high but their potential win was considerable. But obviously they are the type of losing punter the TAB likes and doesn't restrict. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, mardigras said: In fact, I rarely bet on any runner below 15s and often at 50s to 100s. Do you take odds on opening or do you wait until for more opportune moments eg just before the start? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said: Do you take odds on opening or do you wait until for more opportune moments eg just before the start? I bet 98% on betfair, so I assess chance and I also try and assess expected punter chance. So depending on offer, I'll definitely wait if the price is less than my assessment of what the punters will ultimately think, and I'll bet earlier if I think the price will shorten. With that last bit, on betfair, prices in the price bracket I operate in tend to drift (except in the odd case of a big plunge), so I take that into consideration as well on the basis that the layers are often doing whatever they can to take the bets. So I tend to only bet early when the liquidity is strong on a market already and the price is beyond my expectation of punter price. And on NZ racing, I nearly always bet last second, as the prices and volumes are tiny (still quite small at start time as well though). Nearly all my betting is done through a program I wrote that collects the price information on markets continually and assesses those prices against my assessments. I pay an effective commission rate of around 23% on betfair, so if the TAB had APIs to execute to bet through a program, I'd bet on the tote with them. Edited December 7, 2020 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 hours ago, mardigras said: Because they are treated based on a justification as to what level of risk they are prepared to take. All of them under the same process. All treated equally. Do realise how stupid what you are saying is? They are all treated equally but differently depending on the risk lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Brodie said: Do realise how stupid what you are saying is? They are all treated equally but differently depending on the risk lol Talking about realising, I didn't realise English was a second language for you. That does explain a lot though. Since you still haven't understood. They are all treated equally, not different. The resulting restriction can be different. I know this is confusing for you. Words like equal beside words like different. As I say, it does explain a lot though. Edited December 7, 2020 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, mardigras said: Funny. Now you're the bigiam. You've got problems, and being restricted is only a minor one. You're becoming the site joke. very entertaining at times. Are you up for the challenge MardiGras to back your claim that Brodie is a fraud or are you one that just accuses? Surely, you would love tO take $10k off the clueless one Edited December 7, 2020 by Brodie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunterthepunter Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Check this post. who gives a shit that mick is restricted 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, Chief Stipe said: "Common sense" isn't fact. You have admitted that you don't know yet you continue to promote the impression that you do know. That's classic tautology. What you are saying is if I don't agree with your "common sense" argument which is devoid of any evidence then I must support the following rhetorical questions that you post! I don't know. I'm giving my opinion. An opinion that if wrong would mean the TAB could be making people restricted that have never won any money from any bet. It's a stupid theory with nothing supporting it, when what is supposedly happening is in line with standard business practice. Yet he thinks they aren't following a standard business practice - because he is being treated differently. Gotta love these conspiracy theories. Just try and answer this. What does the TAB gain from treating Brodie any different to any other punter? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Just now, mardigras said: I don't know. I'm giving my opinion. An opinion that if wrong would mean the TAB could be making people restricted that have never won any money from any bet. It's a stupid theory with nothing supporting it, when what is supposedly happening is in line with standard business practice. Yet he thinks they aren't following a standard business practice - because he is being treated differently. Gotta love these conspiracy theories. Just try and answer this. What does the TAB gain from treating Brodie any different to any other punter? Provide evidence to the contrary. Let's face it you have no idea what TAB NZ's business practice is. Now given their performance comparative to other wagering outlets one would be justified in thinking that TAB NZ DOESN'T follow "standard business practice." Who knows what "the TAB gains from treating Brodie any different to any other punter" - you don't know that he isn't treated any different - perhaps if they do treat him differently that is because he costs them too much. In fact we do know that the TAB treats some punters differently than others. You yourself have confirmed that. Some VIP punters get rebates and most do not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Mehe - it is obvious to everyone that you are a troll. You one and only specialist subject which you are motivated to post on is that Attack Brodie Topic. BTW I'm not backing up Brodie I'm pointing out the inconsistency in Mardigras's argument. He may sound authoritative but provides no evidence - now if YOU were consistent with your specialist subject you would point that out to him! What inconsistency? My argument is based on standard business practice fits in with what Brodie describes happens to him. Don't see any problem there. My argument is further backed up by asking what would the TAB gain by treating Brodie different to other punters? His argument is, I'm being treated differently, even though his treatment seems to be in line and consistent with other punters. And as I say, why would they specifically treat Brodie different to other punters. For a laugh? What are they gaining by doing so? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Fact is, that the NZ TAB are hypocritical in their actions!!! Firstly they restrict certain punters from being able to place bets with them, despite the fact they used to advertise, “you know the odds now beat them” Then it was “are you in” Despite this they treat punters differently, some get on as much as they want and others next to nothing! Then they advertise that they care about punters that lose!!!!! What a load of BS, all they want is losing punters ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunterthepunter Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 hunter is the only one that's on the money lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Provide evidence to the contrary. Let's face it you have no idea what TAB NZ's business practice is. Now given their performance comparative to other wagering outlets one would be justified in thinking that TAB NZ DOESN'T follow "standard business practice." Who knows what "the TAB gains from treating Brodie any different to any other punter" - you don't know that he isn't treated any different - perhaps if they do treat him differently that is because he costs them too much. I don't. I don't really need to either. I don't typically walk around with an aluminium hat on either. 8 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: In fact we do know that the TAB treats some punters differently than others. You yourself have confirmed that. Some VIP punters get rebates and most do not. That's also not different treatment. All punters are being treated the same, it's the outcome from that treatment that varies. So no, I have not confirmed that they treat punters differently. I've confirmed they offer rebates which in my opinion is a stupid idea, and the equal treatment of punters should be that no punter gets rebates, as opposed to the equal treatment of punters resulting in some punters getting rebates. Both equal treatments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Brodie said: Fact is, that the NZ TAB are hypocritical in their actions!!! Firstly they restrict certain punters from being able to place bets with them, despite the fact they used to advertise, “you know the odds now beat them” Then it was “are you in” Despite this they treat punters differently, some get on as much as they want and others next to nothing! Then they advertise that they care about punters that lose!!!!! What a load of BS, all they want is losing punters ! Bad luck. Bet somewhere else. Of course they want losing punters, so they treat punters the same by having a process of ensuring they don't lose too much from winning punters. As is the case with bookies/TABs everywhere when it comes to risk management. Certainly would agree they are hypocritical. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, mardigras said: What inconsistency? My argument is based on standard business practice fits in with what Brodie describes happens to him. Don't see any problem there. My argument is further backed up by asking what would the TAB gain by treating Brodie different to other punters? His argument is, I'm being treated differently, even though his treatment seems to be in line and consistent with other punters. And as I say, why would they specifically treat Brodie different to other punters. For a laugh? What are they gaining by doing so? FFS, MardiGras, if anyone has difficulty with understanding, it is you! The point is, and you can not comprehend, is that the TAB is a betting organisation that is meant to accept bets! The only problem is that they will accept bets from most punters and yet others they will only take small ones or not at all sometimes. Punters are being treated not equally! The fact of the matter also is that it is very ironic that you state that you do not really bet in NZ, so it is rather hard to take your opinion that seriously. You may have an agenda to belittle Brodie, but truth is that you shoot off a BS comment and then not prepared to support it when I offer you the chance to make money! Says it all really! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Thanks - I'm flattered that NZ reads BOAY! Because it doesn't matter to me if evidence is provided or not. What does concern me is balance. Now Mehe you are quick to jump in and join the mob but don't even question the veracity of what Mardigras is saying. I would have thought that you would be asking Mardigras for evidence or do you believe everything he says and treat his opinion as fact? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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