Tell Me it aint So?

[Horace]

A $100,000 Group 2 race for 2 yr old fillies...11 acceptances....9 maidens...really!!

Not knocking the club concerned, but if this doesn't tell NZTR something about other clubs and big money backers hi-jacking the industry nothing will. How this race can even keep any Group status is beyond me unless some drastic moves happen real quick, fields have been pisspoor for several years. Even Teakau can only find 1 nomination?

[Chief Stipe]

53 minutes ago, Horace said:

A $100,000 Group 2 race for 2 yr old fillies...11 acceptances....9 maidens...really!!

Not knocking the club concerned, but if this doesn't tell NZTR something about other clubs and big money backers hi-jacking the industry nothing will. How this race can even keep any Group status is beyond me unless some drastic moves happen real quick, fields have been pisspoor for several years. Even Teakau can only find 1 nomination?

Happens every day of the week with 2yr old races at Metrop tracks in OZ.  The only difference is over there they are racing for twice the money.

[Huey]

Yep goes with the territory somewhat with 2yos, but I can see your point, would the field be any different running for $70k save the other $30k for 3 industry races.

[Chief Stipe]

5 minutes ago, Huey said:

Yep goes with the territory somewhat with 2yos, but I can see your point, would the field be any different running for $70k save the other $30k for 3 industry races.

Then you would be more critical of the Grp1 at Otaki on the same day.  

$200k.  7 Starters.  If you take out the two class horses with ratings of 105 and 112 then the rest of the field has an average rating of 91!

[Horace]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

Then you would be more critical of the Grp1 at Otaki on the same day.  

$200k.  7 Starters.  If you take out the two class horses with ratings of 105 and 112 then the rest of the field has an average rating of 91!

No comparison at all. I'd probably be happy to see 7 good horses some with multiple Group 1 form. Any way you try to paint it chief the Matamata situation is bloody awful.

[Chief Stipe]

8 minutes ago, Horace said:

No comparison at all. I'd probably be happy to see 7 good horses some with multiple Group 1 form. Any way you try to paint it chief the Matamata situation is bloody awful.

I can see a pattern emerging here however if you rate the Grp 1 at Otaki with only two true Grp1 horses in it running for $200k above the 2yr race at Matamata well one has to ask what your motivation is.

Do a close analysis of the Grp 2 Embrace Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday for 2 yr fillies.  $200k stake.  It isn't exactly a rock star field either.   

Or the first at Flemington on Saturday.  A LR for 2 yr olds.  $140k up for grabs.  9 starters.  2 first time to the races.  Only one winner and 2 place getters.

[Horace]

10 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I can see a pattern emerging here however if you rate the Grp 1 at Otaki with only two true Grp1 horses in it running for $200k above the 2yr race at Matamata well one has to ask what your motivation is.

Do a close analysis of the Grp 2 Embrace Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday for 2 yr fillies.  $200k stake.  It isn't exactly a rock star field either.   

Or the first at Flemington on Saturday.  A LR for 2 yr olds.  $140k up for grabs.  9 starters.  2 first time to the races.  Only one winner and 2 place getters.

I don't have any motivation. I don't own any 2 yr old fillies. I'm just a mug punter. Good on the connections of the 9 maidens in the field at Matramata-at least one of them and quite possibly more are going to get some very cheap Group 2 status. The tragedy is a heap of 2 yr olds have probably been stuffed with being put through pressure cooked preps with owners etc trying to get into the Karaka race. The Matamata race needs to be put back 6-8 weeks in my opinion or else it can't last as a Group race...club should just put on a $25k maiden for them.

[Chief Stipe]

1 minute ago, Horace said:

The tragedy is a heap of 2 yr olds have probably been stuffed with being put through pressure cooked preps with owners etc trying to get into the Karaka race.

Yeah well look at the carnage leading up to and after the Golden Slipper!

1 minute ago, Horace said:

The Matamata race needs to be put back 6-8 weeks in my opinion or else it can't last as a Group race...club should just put on a $25k maiden for them.

Then you'd clash with the Grp 1 Sistema Stakes at Ellerslie for 2 yr olds.  Then the Grp 1 Sires Produce at Awapuni.  

[Tony]

2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Then you would be more critical of the Grp1 at Otaki on the same day.  

$200k.  7 Starters.  If you take out the two class horses with ratings of 105 and 112 then the rest of the field has an average rating of 91!

How can NZ racing get any traction when people like you Chief keep bagging the quality of the horses in a race like the Otaki Group 1. In the field of 7 you have 3 Group 1 winners, 3 Group 1 placed horses, some of these are Group 2 winners and the seventh horse is a Group 2 winner. If we had a positive outlook we would be celebrating these horses and this race. One very good mare is overshadowing the other runners.

If a field like this was racing in Australia and Advantage was Winx you would be saying what an exciting spectacle this is going to be. 

People need to change their mindset. The only constant is change. Syndicates will take up a bigger and bigger part of racehorse ownership while horses owned by only one or two people will diminish. Trainers that take advantage of syndication will survive while those who don't want to syndicate will fall behind. There is a future for those who grasp the opportunities. 

Karaka this year was really positive. The sale of Yearlings and Racehorses overseas will continue to under pin the flow of money that circles around racing in NZ. 

[Chief Stipe]

9 minutes ago, Tony said:

How can NZ racing get any traction when people like you Chief keep bagging the quality of the horses in a race like the Otaki Group 1. In the field of 7 you have 3 Group 1 winners, 3 Group 1 placed horses, some of these are Group 2 winners and the seventh horse is a Group 2 winner.

The fact that these horses have won Group races says even more about the quality of our Group horses.  Two R85 horses in a Grp1 WFA doesn't give one much confidence does it?

[nomates]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

How can NZ racing get any traction when people like you Chief keep bagging the quality of the horses in a race like the Otaki Group 1. In the field of 7 you have 3 Group 1 winners, 3 Group 1 placed horses, some of these are Group 2 winners and the seventh horse is a Group 2 winner. If we had a positive outlook we would be celebrating these horses and this race. One very good mare is overshadowing the other runners.

 

People having opinions about the quality of a race will have no bearing on whether NZ racing can get some traction and start improving , our problems much deeper than opinions .

Chief posted a video of Grey Way winning the Easter Hcp , go have a look , that was NZ's G1 standard . I would think Avantage would struggle to wiegh in in that field . It's because more hasn't been said about our dropping quality that has allowed it to fall so far .

1 hour ago, Tony said:

The sale of Yearlings and Racehorses overseas will continue to under pin the flow of money that circles around racing in NZ. 

While it may under pin a flow of money , and i am guilty of it , it is because of this continuing sale of large numbers , tried and untried that has put us in the position we find ourselves in . We are in a position where we are left with a pool of horses that is very light on quality , hence we regularly see 1 or 2 outstanding horses take home all the spoils .

The mindset that needs to change is the people charged with overseeing our once great sport , they need to start coming up with incentives i.e. much improved stakes for one , and ideas to start getting people to start keeping their horses to race here and not sell the young promising horses that show some ability .

I recently had a small share in a horse that ran 4th in it's first trial , would have won with any sort of luck and showed a great turn of foot , sold for 150k to Melbourne , i voted to keep , i was out voted ,and i'm not upset with the others , christ 150k for a horse having it's first trial . What chance have we got when now even that level of horse is being sourced . 

Hard to stay positive when you see nothing being done to curb this flood out of NZ , and if it continues unchecked the things will only get worse . Take Te Akau out of the picture who keep their well bred purchases in NZ to race and the picture is even more dire .

And if you think the Chief is being negative about the quality of one of our G1's try asking an Aussie , they will laugh at you .

[Freda]

Yes, imagine things without Te Akau ?         What a depressing thought....and I'm just a battler who can not and will never be able to aspire to any sort of expensive, high-class purchase.

I don't imagine I'm much different from a number of other small operators.  I have had good  single owners, in the past - most have now passed on, sadly.  I have enthusiastic support from a number of great people who have shares in several, but - most of those are unable to go off and purchase a yearling.

Most of the few that could, practically, don't see the point with the way the outfit is being run.

But, one or two can.  Good friends and supporters;   but, they will leave me to source a horse, and then offer to take 5 per cent, or 2.5 per cent...but are quite happy to outlay thousands on a horse to send straight over to Aus.

That is what the perception does.  Now, if I had the capital, any smart horse that I owned would be over the ditch smartly.  Similarly, a client would be advised to do the same, if they had a nice animal.

But, statistically, the percentage of superstars vs slow ones doesn't alter  much from one place to another.   I have pointed out that it would make sense to develop the horse here, then send it over if it looked reasonable.   Save on plane fares at least if it was not very talented.

But, the buzz is all about racing in Aus, and it doesn't look like changing any time soon.

As I said, without Te Akau  [ and a few others ]  we would be watching a  bunch of R 65's go around most of the time.

[Huey]

5 hours ago, Freda said:

Yes, imagine things without Te Akau ?         What a depressing thought....and I'm just a battler who can not and will never be able to aspire to any sort of expensive, high-class purchase.

I don't imagine I'm much different from a number of other small operators.  I have had good  single owners, in the past - most have now passed on, sadly.  I have enthusiastic support from a number of great people who have shares in several, but - most of those are unable to go off and purchase a yearling.

Most of the few that could, practically, don't see the point with the way the outfit is being run.

But, one or two can.  Good friends and supporters;   but, they will leave me to source a horse, and then offer to take 5 per cent, or 2.5 per cent...but are quite happy to outlay thousands on a horse to send straight over to Aus.

That is what the perception does.  Now, if I had the capital, any smart horse that I owned would be over the ditch smartly.  Similarly, a client would be advised to do the same, if they had a nice animal.

But, statistically, the percentage of superstars vs slow ones doesn't alter  much from one place to another.   I have pointed out that it would make sense to develop the horse here, then send it over if it looked reasonable.   Save on plane fares at least if it was not very talented.

But, the buzz is all about racing in Aus, and it doesn't look like changing any time soon.

As I said, without Te Akau  [ and a few others ]  we would be watching a  bunch of R 65's go around most of the time.

Would we though?

Without them would the quality bloodstock be less expensive and more evenly spread out amongst the other trainers and more affordable prices?  also would the middle end drop to the lower etc 

Are TA really picking up the top end of the Aus market , they seem to get what they want in Aus at any rate, I mean would Avantage be considered as successful had it solely campaigned in Aus? 

Of course I'm only saying this as a battler myself.

[Chief Stipe]

11 minutes ago, Huey said:

Without them would the quality bloodstock be less expensive and more evenly spread out amongst the other trainers and more affordable prices?

To test that theory you just need to look at who the underbidder's were.  Very very few were NZ Trainers or connected owners.

12 minutes ago, Huey said:

also would the middle end drop to the lower etc

Does it really need to drop any lower?

Even if it did drop lower the return is so low that the moment a good offer came along the horse would be sold overseas.  How many times have you seen a Te Akau horse sold early in its career?  

Imagine the offers that would have been received for On The Bubbles, Sword of State and Imperatriz?

15 minutes ago, Huey said:

Are TA really picking up the top end of the Aus market , they seem to get what they want in Aus at any rate, I mean would Avantage be considered as successful had it solely campaigned in Aus? 

Horses for courses.  However there is enough evidence to suggest that if Avantage had started its career in OZ it would have been as successful.  I don't think Te Akau have fine tuned their Ozzie raids as well as Murray Baker.  I think the main difference there is that Baker has a much harder training regime than Te Akau.

[Freda]

23 minutes ago, Huey said:

Would we though?

Without them would the quality bloodstock be less expensive and more evenly spread out amongst the other trainers and more affordable prices?  also would the middle end drop to the lower etc 

Are TA really picking up the top end of the Aus market , they seem to get what they want in Aus at any rate, I mean would Avantage be considered as successful had it solely campaigned in Aus? 

Of course I'm only saying this as a battler myself.

Possibly, yes.   But, the racing industry as it stands now wouldn't change without Te Akau...my point was that they keep their good ones here,  mostly - yes, campaign them away, but they aren't as a general rule, sold.  So, without their model, far more horses would, through necessity, find their way overseas.    And they have plenty of slow ones too.

[Chief Stipe]

4 minutes ago, Freda said:

But, the racing industry as it stands now wouldn't change without Te Akau

It would probably be worse.  I don't think it is healthy that Te Akau are dominating many facets of the industry.  Some facets that they shouldn't have any involvement with e.g. Weigh In, Trackside.  But what would we have left if they weren't involved?

Yes I like many people get sick of syrupy hyperbole we hear some days on Trackside - that is something that Te Akau needs to manage perhaps.  Imagine the day Emily criticises Opie's ride on Trackside?  That is what is so entertaining about OZ racing - hell fair suck of the sav if someone deserves a serve they sure get it!  

All that aside many of these perception issues are a symptom of how small, inbred and insular the NZ Racing industry is becoming.  It is a symptom not the cause.  Like many things in NZ the cause is the bureaucrats not the workers.  

[Huey]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

To test that theory you just need to look at who the underbidder's were.  Very very few were NZ Trainers or connected owners.

But is that because many NZ trainers just don't bother when they see TA on a horse? 

 

Does it really need to drop any lower?

Well yes given how poor a condition the state NZ racing is in yes , yes they probably could , along with stud fees.

Even if it did drop lower the return is so low that the moment a good offer came along the horse would be sold overseas.  How many times have you seen a Te Akau horse sold early in its career?  

Fair point

Imagine the offers that would have been received for On The Bubbles, Sword of State and Imperatriz?

I don't think there would have been that many, do you honestly think any of those would be top 2yos in Aus? Sorry I don't. They look great beating the local product, I'm not sure any of them are Group Aus 2yos in the 2 main racing states.

Horses for courses.  However there is enough evidence to suggest that if Avantage had started its career in OZ it would have been as successful.  I don't think Te Akau have fine tuned their Ozzie raids as well as Murray Baker.  I think the main difference there is that Baker has a much harder training regime than Te Akau.

Can't agree with that assertion, do you really think she'd be winning G1 WFA 1200/1400m races in Aus? Or WFA mile races? Or a G1 2yo race in Aus? Sorry can't see it.

 

[Chief Stipe]

1 minute ago, Huey said:

I don't think there would have been that many, do you honestly think any of those would be top 2yos in Aus? Sorry I don't. They look great beating the local product, I'm not sure any of them are Group Aus 2yos in the 2 main racing states.

 

Yes I think all three have the potential to be Grp winners later in the season in OZ.  Not Golden Slipper horses but horses that will perform and kick on.

3 minutes ago, Huey said:

Can't agree with that assertion, do you really think she'd be winning G1 WFA 1200/1400m races in Aus? Or WFA mile races? Or a G1 2yo race in Aus? Sorry can't see it.

Yes I can.  The sectionals that she can run on a range of track conditions suggest that to me.  I'll draw an analogy....

When I was younger I could run a bit.  I cleaned up everything that my local province could provide.  I then was promoted to represent my province.  So I go and race in a bigger province.  Bigger by 10 fold.  My first race was an eye opener and a gut buster.  Instead of being a winner by 6 lengths I was 4th and sucking air.  Learnt heaps.  Had to step up the training to be competitive and get tougher.

Same with horses.  Shit some of those trials at Flemington or Rosehill would have our horses sucking air.

So Avantage.  Yep easy kills here.  So to win over there you'd need to put her under real pressure before you went there.

As an aside Aegon won on racecraft learnt behind slower horses.  

[Huey]

4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Yes I think all three have the potential to be Grp winners later in the season in OZ.  Not Golden Slipper horses but horses that will perform and kick on.

Yes I can.  The sectionals that she can run on a range of track conditions suggest that to me.  I'll draw an analogy....

When I was younger I could run a bit.  I cleaned up everything that my local province could provide.  I then was promoted to represent my province.  So I go and race in a bigger province.  Bigger by 10 fold.  My first race was an eye opener and a gut buster.  Instead of being a winner by 6 lengths I was 4th and sucking air.  Learnt heaps.  Had to step up the training to be competitive and get tougher.

Same with horses.  Shit some of those trials at Flemington or Rosehill would have our horses sucking air.

So Avantage.  Yep easy kills here.  So to win over there you'd need to put her under real pressure before you went there.

As an aside Aegon won on racecraft learnt behind slower horses.  

Hopefully we get to see if she ventures over, I think Aegon looks special has done since his Guineas win, as an older horse he maybe something very special to watch out for.