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Bit Of A Yarn

All weather racing


mardigras

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I see Withhold won the Northumberland Plate overnight. On the AWT.

Good to see the they didn't use the track as a training ground. First up for over 8 months in a race over 2 miles long.

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And now an AWT winner is the favourite for this years Melbourne Cup in many markets.

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5 hours ago, Freda said:

Now that is good conditioning. 

True, but pretty common up there at all levels. 40 years ago now but I remember Vincent bringing Alleged back to win the Arc in the autumn after going shin sore in the spring. One lead up run over 1 1/4m at Longchamp where he smashed the course record. Mind you there were quite a few "derbys" run on those all weather gallops at Ballydoyle back then. Probably still are.

Edited by curious
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Won the Cesarewitch start before. Qualified for the cup and they've said that race is the target. Depending on rating change, may still have to win another race before hand or hope Carpenter gives him enough weight. Rating is still well below what would get him in race and even after adjustment for this win, might still only be on the 50 - 51 mark in cup weights.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I see they are indicating they may not race again before the cup. With a UK rating of 107 after its last start, I'd be thinking there is a decent chance he wouldn't make the field off that. Horses with higher ratings than that have not even managed to get 51kg so Carpenter would have to give the horse favours to get him a start. 

3 years ago, horses on 107 got 51 and 50. Two years ago, 2 horses on 109 got 51. Last year a horse on 107 got 51 and a horse on 109 got 50.5. 51 is definitely not guaranteed a start. I wouldn't touch him either way. But certainly not as the clear current favourite.

 

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3 minutes ago, Reefton said:

Surely Lloyd Williams would be demanding Rekindled return?

 

They ran first and second Williams loves the cup like no other, my mail is both will be aimed at WFA

Which makes me think he must have a couple of very promising stayers in the pipeline he rarely is without a runner in the cup

 

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Yip I wouldn’t be surprised if they have 2,3,4,5, runners

As you stated Lloyd said they were unlikely

The Williams factor holds heavy weight when assessing the form 

When you’re not considering running the quinella from last year you would think there’d be quietly maybe not quietly probably very confident one two or three of there imports can do the job

I listened to Andrew Bensley interview Lloyd the day after the cup last year

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12 hours ago, mardigras said:

I don't think he ever left. And it is Lloyd Williams saying the two of them are unlikely.

Oh sorry - I don't keep up with who says what in international racing.

If he is still in Aus why wouldn't they have aimed him somewhere last Autumn?  

 

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1 hour ago, Reefton said:

Oh sorry - I don't keep up with who says what in international racing.

If he is still in Aus why wouldn't they have aimed him somewhere last Autumn?  

 

I understand they had planned to target Autumn races, but didn't go ahead. Maybe needed a longer break. Not sure.

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  • 3 weeks later...
45 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said:

Yes FtF, but since then, they are both under a cloud. No WFA engagements for either for mid/late spring and both reported as suffering setbacks.

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32 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Yes FtF, but since then, they are both under a cloud. No WFA engagements for either for mid/late spring and both reported as suffering setbacks.

true M., I saw mentioned that they hadn't started since so thought I would throw up the whole piece to confuse plus I wondered if blinkers would give them a miraculous recovery. 

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16 hours ago, mardigras said:

Somewhat further confirmed that though they weren't planning on targeting the race, they have both had setbacks - so Cup a no go if reports are to be believed

3 interesting runners from the stable

Sir Edwin Landseer

Killimanjaro

Crocodile Rock all run Saturday

Considering Williams has won 50% of the past 6 Melbourne cups you sit back and take notice 

I would be expecting one of the latter two to be winning Saturday to lift their ratings

You would think Latrobe isn’t coming

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The NZ TAB has pre nom Cup odds available. If you can call them that.

Normally 24 runners will accept for this race. In the NZ TAB market, you only have to go down the top 25 and you've already reached 100% market perc. As a betting organisation, they are woefully out of touch.

Even though they offer refunds if not nominated. Why have horses there that won't be. Call To Mind has been retired. If they want to actually encourage punters to have a bet, why not actually put up odds that suggest that.

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