Chief Stipe Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mumbles Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) How is that move to March looking now. 1 filly and no colts. Edited February 28, 2022 by mumbles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, mumbles said: How is that move to March looking now. 1 filly and no colts. How does the move to March limit the number of colts? I would have thought it would be in their favour. For that matter is the NZ Derby a race you really want to target with a Colt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mumbles Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: How does the move to March limit the number of colts? I would have thought it would be in their favour. For that matter is the NZ Derby a race you really want to target with a Colt? It doesn't, its the total number of horses lining up which is the concern.13 at my count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 hour ago, mumbles said: It doesn't, its the total number of horses lining up which is the concern.13 at my count. That's just nominations. The final field may well be smaller. Arguably if it had been held on Boxing Day the numbers might have been less. The numbers are indicative of a bigger problem not just related to the timing of the event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Appears as though she has scared a few away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Reminds me of Tidal Light....Cooksley hopped her out from a wide gate and she blitzed them in the...Derby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nod Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 On 3/1/2022 at 7:40 AM, Huey said: Appears as though she has scared a few away. I dinna think so -most are real keen to make the field and there is nothing wrong with second The small field is probably just the result of the way the breeding world has turned to sprinters 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 1, 2022 Author Share Posted March 1, 2022 La Crique has drawn 1. Not an ideal draw in this field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Perfect draw for the fav. Expect White Noise to be right in the...fight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 1, 2022 Author Share Posted March 1, 2022 1 minute ago, holy ravioli said: Perfect draw for the fav. I disagree. She'll have to be used early to keep her position in the mad dash to the first bend. She has that tactical speed. But then she will either be stuck in front or could be shuffled back. A "perfect draw" would have been between 2 and 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: I disagree. She'll have to be used early to keep her position in the mad dash to the first bend. She has that tactical speed. But then she will either be stuck in front or could be shuffled back. A "perfect draw" would have been between 2 and 8. How can 8 different draws all be perfect!!😁 Often riders are very conservative with contendors over this distance for the first time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 1, 2022 Author Share Posted March 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: How can 8 different draws all be perfect!!😁 How can 1 be perfect? Draw 1 at the 2400m at Ellerslie is a tricky draw - that is my observation over years of watching 2400m races at Ellerslie. Just as 11 is tricky over 2200m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 1, 2022 Author Share Posted March 1, 2022 That said La Crique has the tactical speed at both ends of the race to hold a position from the 1 draw. Plus the field isn't a capacity field so hopefully there won't be that mad dash and dodgems at the first bend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 1, 2022 Author Share Posted March 1, 2022 Look forward to seeing your "lucky" speed map for the Derby @holy ravioli. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nod Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 22 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: How can 1 be perfect? Draw 1 at the 2400m at Ellerslie is a tricky draw - that is my observation over years of watching 2400m races at Ellerslie. Just as 11 is tricky over 2200m. With all your years of watching Chief you will remember when Ellerslie offered a substantial prize for the leader with a round to go. Do you think they should do this again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, nod said: With all your years of watching Chief you will remember when Ellerslie offered a substantial prize for the leader with a round to go. Do you think they should do this again? Nope. I cringed everytime I saw a capacity Derby field race to that bend. Given the calibre of our Jockey's at the moment even 13 is too many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 2400m Ellerslie-Racingzone -%winners/barrier 8%-1 8%-2 6%-3 10%-4 6%-5 9%-6 7%-7 9%-8 5%-9 8%-10 12%-11 5%-12 11%-13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: 2400m Ellerslie-Racingzone -%winners/barrier 8%-1 8%-2 6%-3 10%-4 6%-5 9%-6 7%-7 9%-8 5%-9 8%-10 12%-11 5%-12 11%-13 So which one is perfect? Can you explain why the %'s add to more than 100? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huey Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 This filly ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: So which one is perfect? Depends on the runner. One thing is evident though...the lowest % of winners occur between barriers 2 and 8!😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, holy ravioli said: Depends on the runner. One thing is evident though...the lowest % of winners occur between barriers 2 and 8!😀 That's not correct however again you miss the point. I said a draw between 2 and 8 would have been better for La Crique. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: That's not correct however again you miss the point. I said a draw between 2 and 8 would have been better for La Crique. You are an each way bettor eh Chief.... 'That said La Crique has the tactical speed at both ends of the race to hold a position from the 1 draw. ' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, holy ravioli said: You are an each way bettor eh Chief.... 'That said La Crique has the tactical speed at both ends of the race to hold a position from the 1 draw. ' That is an observation based on her previous races her last one particularly. The 1 draw narrows your options in my opinion. What if the inside of the track is off by Race 9? My point is that drawing 1 is not the best draw tactically. Anyway we are all still waiting for a description of how you incorporate "luck" as a variable into pre-race assessment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy ravioli Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: That is an observation based on her previous races her last one particularly. The 1 draw narrows your options in my opinion. What if the inside of the track is off by Race 9? My point is that drawing 1 is not the best draw tactically. Anyway we are all still waiting for a description of how you incorporate "luck" as a variable into pre-race assessment. Try the other thread ...I have explained...awaiting your explanations ...now...you know about 'measurable variables'!🛶 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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