NZ 3YOs

[Doomed]

Discussion of today's 3yo race got me thinking that recent 3yo crops have shown an appalling failure to kick on as 4yos. The fillies have been particularly bad with hardly any of the group 1 placegetters in recent years doing anything as 4yos, or even subsequently. The males have been almost as bad after sometimes showing early promise. Catalyst seems to have disappeared, Aegon didn't fire this year. Noverre won't be seen again.

Any thoughts what might be causing this? Are they being raced too hard as youngsters, is the pattern wrong, are our 3yo races just so weak that the winners just aren't that flash. They don't really seem to get raced as hard as the Aussies race their 2yos and 3yos.

I'm sure it wasn't this bad in years gone by. We used to look forward to the exciting 4yos turning up.

[Freda]

15 minutes ago, Doomed said:

Discussion of today's 3yo race got me thinking that recent 3yo crops have shown an appalling failure to kick on as 4yos. The fillies have been particularly bad with hardly any of the group 1 placegetters in recent years doing anything as 4yos, or even subsequently. The males have been almost as bad after sometimes showing early promise. Catalyst seems to have disappeared, Aegon didn't fire this year. Noverre won't be seen again.

Any thoughts what might be causing this? Are they being raced too hard as youngsters, is the pattern wrong, are our 3yo races just so weak that the winners just aren't that flash. They don't really seem to get raced as hard as the Aussies race their 2yos and 3yos.

I'm sure it wasn't this bad in years gone by. We used to look forward to the exciting 4yos turning up.

I can't answer that in detail;  however, the three good horses you mentioned have all had significant issues.

Catalyst had ongoing joint issues,  Aegon bled, Noverre broke down.    The lack of depth [ numbers]  however, means that there aren't too many that can step up and fill the gaps.

[Chief Stipe]

27 minutes ago, Freda said:

Aegon bled,

I don't believe Aegon bled.  I recall reading that he had an injury to his lower nostril.

[Doomed]

I was more talking about the fillies really, but even the Derby placegetters have hardly kicked on. Its not even as if most of them have had hard 2yo seasons either.

[Chief Stipe]

52 minutes ago, Doomed said:

is the pattern wrong

Definitely problems with it.  

53 minutes ago, Doomed said:

are our 3yo races just so weak that the winners just aren't that flash.

A few good ones have been snapped up by overseas buyers.  Plus any owner with any sense would get any decent young horse to OZ asap.

[Chief Stipe]

Just now, Doomed said:

but even the Derby placegetters have hardly kicked on

What does a staying three year old in NZ actually "kick on" to?

[Freda]

22 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I don't believe Aegon bled.  I recall reading that he had an injury to his lower nostril.

I just knew you'd argue about that.

Regardless,  he hasn't yelped since.

[Chief Stipe]

10 minutes ago, Freda said:

I just knew you'd argue about that.

Regardless,  he hasn't yelped since.

I'm not arguing about it.  I'm just stating a fact.  I recall it being discussed on BOAY and it was pointed out by someone that Aegon didn't suffer an EIPH episode but had suffered an injury to his nose.

His last decent run was a 4th in the Memsie last August.  Hasn't been to the races since December 2021 and in his two runs back in NZ he never got a clear run in either race.

So one could argue that he hasn't come back, hasn't improved or just isn't up to it.

[holy ravioli]

4 hours ago, Doomed said:

I was more talking about the fillies really, but even the Derby placegetters have hardly kicked on. Its not even as if most of them have had hard 2yo seasons either.

Same happens in aussie...Waller has a few that don't go on with it.