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Down In grade - $$$


mardigras

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Here's just a quick assortment of horses racing down in grade today that finished within 5 lengths of the winner. After adjusting for slow away, wide, unlucky, over-raced, needed the run, I've adjusted that performance to be within 2 lengths of the winner. Enjoy - check out any with gear changes. Could be the key.

But which ones will win? 

Track Race # Horse
Te Rapa 1 1 CALL ME ROYAL
Te Rapa 1 2 YOUWANTMORE
Te Rapa 1 5 BEAUFIGHTER
Riccarton Park 3 1 NOWHERE MAN
Riccarton Park 3 3 MANHATTAN STREET
Riccarton Park 3 5 BORN A ROYAL
Riccarton Park 3 6 HE KIN FLY
Riccarton Park 3 7 GALWAY GARRY
Riccarton Park 3 9 UPPERHAND
Riccarton Park 3 10 FIRE LILY
Riccarton Park 3 12 SHOWPIN
Te Rapa 2 3 TEMPLE TIGER
Te Rapa 2 6 STRADIVARIUS
Te Rapa 2 8 AZ GIVEN
Riccarton Park 4 2 DELACROIX
Te Rapa 3 2 MORE WONDER
Te Rapa 5 3 TRUEMAN
Te Rapa 5 4 IMPULSIVE HABIT
Te Rapa 5 6 OHCEEDEE
Te Rapa 5 7 BANROCK
Te Rapa 5 9 DIRECT CAPITAL
Te Rapa 5 11 SOUND WORKS
Te Rapa 5 13 REAL FUN
Riccarton Park 7 6 SARONIC MISS
Te Rapa 6 2 JULIUS
Te Rapa 6 5 MAGNUM
Te Rapa 7 11 JET CHARGED
Riccarton Park 9 1 HAND IT TO JONESY
Riccarton Park 9 3 PESO
Riccarton Park 9 5 MILK IT
Riccarton Park 9 6 SMILING ASSASSIN
Riccarton Park 9 8 OREPUKI LAD
Riccarton Park 9 10 GOLDEN BAY
Te Rapa 8 9 PEARLESCENCE
Te Rapa 8 10 SHERIFFS DAUGHTER
Riccarton Park 10 5 ROCK ISLAND LINE

 

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Here's just a quick assortment of horses racing down in grade today that finished within 5 lengths of the winner. After adjusting for slow away, wide, unlucky, over-raced, needed the run, I've adjusted that performance to be within 2 lengths of the winner. Enjoy - check out any with gear changes. Could be the key.

But which ones will win? 

Track Race # Horse
Te Rapa 1 1 CALL ME ROYAL
Te Rapa 1 2 YOUWANTMORE
Te Rapa 1 5 BEAUFIGHTER
Riccarton Park 3 1 NOWHERE MAN
Riccarton Park 3 3 MANHATTAN STREET
Riccarton Park 3 5 BORN A ROYAL
Riccarton Park 3 6 HE KIN FLY
Riccarton Park 3 7 GALWAY GARRY
Riccarton Park 3 9 UPPERHAND
Riccarton Park 3 10 FIRE LILY
Riccarton Park 3 12 SHOWPIN
Te Rapa 2 3 TEMPLE TIGER
Te Rapa 2 6 STRADIVARIUS
Te Rapa 2 8 AZ GIVEN
Riccarton Park 4 2 DELACROIX
Te Rapa 3 2 MORE WONDER
Te Rapa 5 3 TRUEMAN
Te Rapa 5 4 IMPULSIVE HABIT
Te Rapa 5 6 OHCEEDEE
Te Rapa 5 7 BANROCK
Te Rapa 5 9 DIRECT CAPITAL
Te Rapa 5 11 SOUND WORKS
Te Rapa 5 13 REAL FUN
Riccarton Park 7 6 SARONIC MISS
Te Rapa 6 2 JULIUS
Te Rapa 6 5 MAGNUM
Te Rapa 7 11 JET CHARGED
Riccarton Park 9 1 HAND IT TO JONESY
Riccarton Park 9 3 PESO
Riccarton Park 9 5 MILK IT
Riccarton Park 9 6 SMILING ASSASSIN
Riccarton Park 9 8 OREPUKI LAD
Riccarton Park 9 10 GOLDEN BAY
Te Rapa 8 9 PEARLESCENCE
Te Rapa 8 10 SHERIFFS DAUGHTER
Riccarton Park 10 5 ROCK ISLAND LINE

 

Good work mate,will follow with interest

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14 minutes ago, barryb said:

Bloody he'll, hoof pads on is even better.

Why has Thomass kept this from us all?.

Bloody hell. I was hoping you guys wouldn't discover that. I'm going to be in the poor house for a few weeks until I find another edge. I'm working on a theory about Lasix first time in the US which looks promising though. At this stage it appears to only work at certain tracks however, which complicates matters.

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2 hours ago, mardigras said:

Here's just a quick assortment of horses racing down in grade today that finished within 5 lengths of the winner. After adjusting for slow away, wide, unlucky, over-raced, needed the run, I've adjusted that performance to be within 2 lengths of the winner. Enjoy - check out any with gear changes. Could be the key.

But which ones will win? 

Track Race # Horse
Te Rapa 1 1 CALL ME ROYAL
Te Rapa 1 2 YOUWANTMORE
Te Rapa 1 5 BEAUFIGHTER
Riccarton Park 3 1 NOWHERE MAN
Riccarton Park 3 3 MANHATTAN STREET
Riccarton Park 3 5 BORN A ROYAL
Riccarton Park 3 6 HE KIN FLY
Riccarton Park 3 7 GALWAY GARRY
Riccarton Park 3 9 UPPERHAND
Riccarton Park 3 10 FIRE LILY
Riccarton Park 3 12 SHOWPIN
Te Rapa 2 3 TEMPLE TIGER
Te Rapa 2 6 STRADIVARIUS
Te Rapa 2 8 AZ GIVEN
Riccarton Park 4 2 DELACROIX
Te Rapa 3 2 MORE WONDER
Te Rapa 5 3 TRUEMAN
Te Rapa 5 4 IMPULSIVE HABIT
Te Rapa 5 6 OHCEEDEE
Te Rapa 5 7 BANROCK
Te Rapa 5 9 DIRECT CAPITAL
Te Rapa 5 11 SOUND WORKS
Te Rapa 5 13 REAL FUN
Riccarton Park 7 6 SARONIC MISS
Te Rapa 6 2 JULIUS
Te Rapa 6 5 MAGNUM
Te Rapa 7 11 JET CHARGED
Riccarton Park 9 1 HAND IT TO JONESY
Riccarton Park 9 3 PESO
Riccarton Park 9 5 MILK IT
Riccarton Park 9 6 SMILING ASSASSIN
Riccarton Park 9 8 OREPUKI LAD
Riccarton Park 9 10 GOLDEN BAY
Te Rapa 8 9 PEARLESCENCE
Te Rapa 8 10 SHERIFFS DAUGHTER
Riccarton Park 10 5 ROCK ISLAND LINE

 

What a laugh. Huge boxed multi?

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1 hour ago, pete said:

What a laugh. Huge boxed multi?

Yep, looking good. Especially if you know which ones to back!

Here is my rated price against the runners.

Track Race # Horse Rated SP Result Win At Value Return
Te Rapa 1 1 CALL ME ROYAL $4.46 $5.50 1 $5.50 1 $5.50
Te Rapa 1 2 YOUWANTMORE $6.98 $2.30 3      
Te Rapa 1 5 BEAUFIGHTER $3.86 $3.30        
Riccarton Park 3 1 NOWHERE MAN $6.00 $7.50     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 3 3 MANHATTAN STREET $18.29 $5.50 3      
Riccarton Park 3 5 BORN A ROYAL $6.30 $11.00     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 3 6 HE KIN FLY $3.97 $12.00 1 $12.00 1 $12.00
Riccarton Park 3 7 GALWAY GARRY $17.05 $14.00        
Riccarton Park 3 9 UPPERHAND $10.49 $3.20 2      
Riccarton Park 3 10 FIRE LILY $100.00 $7.00        
Riccarton Park 3 12 SHOWPIN $10.95 $31.00     1 $0.00
Te Rapa 2 3 TEMPLE TIGER $5.64 $3.60 3      
Te Rapa 2 6 STRADIVARIUS $7.01 $4.40 1 $4.40    
Te Rapa 2 8 AZ GIVEN $5.84 $12.00     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 4 2 DELACROIX $4.67 $2.90 3      
Te Rapa 3 2 MORE WONDER $4.30          
Te Rapa 5 3 TRUEMAN $9.87          
Te Rapa 5 4 IMPULSIVE HABIT $300.03          
Te Rapa 5 6 OHCEEDEE scr          
Te Rapa 5 7 BANROCK $6.79          
Te Rapa 5 9 DIRECT CAPITAL $17.24          
Te Rapa 5 11 SOUND WORKS $7.77          
Te Rapa 5 13 REAL FUN $11.03          
Riccarton Park 7 6 SARONIC MISS $3.61          
Te Rapa 6 2 JULIUS $2.50          
Te Rapa 6 5 MAGNUM $5.98          
Te Rapa 7 11 JET CHARGED $4.79          
Riccarton Park 9 1 HAND IT TO JONESY $30.61          
Riccarton Park 9 3 PESO $9.87          
Riccarton Park 9 5 MILK IT $7.32          
Riccarton Park 9 6 SMILING ASSASSIN $40.54          
Riccarton Park 9 8 OREPUKI LAD $62.50          
Riccarton Park 9 10 GOLDEN BAY scr          
Te Rapa 8 9 PEARLESCENCE $149.99          
Te Rapa 8 10 SHERIFFS DAUGHTER $20.83          
Riccarton Park 10 5 ROCK ISLAND LINE $78.95          

 

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6 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Yep, looking good. Especially if you know which ones to back!

Here is my rated price against the runners.

Track Race # Horse Rated SP Result Win At Value Return
Te Rapa 1 1 CALL ME ROYAL $4.46 $5.50 1 $5.50 1 $5.50
Te Rapa 1 2 YOUWANTMORE $6.98 $2.30 3      
Te Rapa 1 5 BEAUFIGHTER $3.86 $3.30        
Riccarton Park 3 1 NOWHERE MAN $6.00 $7.50     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 3 3 MANHATTAN STREET $18.29 $5.50 3      
Riccarton Park 3 5 BORN A ROYAL $6.30 $11.00     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 3 6 HE KIN FLY $3.97 $12.00 1 $12.00 1 $12.00
Riccarton Park 3 7 GALWAY GARRY $17.05 $14.00        
Riccarton Park 3 9 UPPERHAND $10.49 $3.20 2      
Riccarton Park 3 10 FIRE LILY $100.00 $7.00        
Riccarton Park 3 12 SHOWPIN $10.95 $31.00     1 $0.00
Te Rapa 2 3 TEMPLE TIGER $5.64 $3.60 3      
Te Rapa 2 6 STRADIVARIUS $7.01 $4.40 1 $4.40    
Te Rapa 2 8 AZ GIVEN $5.84 $12.00     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 4 2 DELACROIX $4.67 $2.90 3      
Te Rapa 3 2 MORE WONDER $4.30          
Te Rapa 5 3 TRUEMAN $9.87          
Te Rapa 5 4 IMPULSIVE HABIT $300.03          
Te Rapa 5 6 OHCEEDEE scr          
Te Rapa 5 7 BANROCK $6.79          
Te Rapa 5 9 DIRECT CAPITAL $17.24          
Te Rapa 5 11 SOUND WORKS $7.77          
Te Rapa 5 13 REAL FUN $11.03          
Riccarton Park 7 6 SARONIC MISS $3.61          
Te Rapa 6 2 JULIUS $2.50          
Te Rapa 6 5 MAGNUM $5.98          
Te Rapa 7 11 JET CHARGED $4.79          
Riccarton Park 9 1 HAND IT TO JONESY $30.61          
Riccarton Park 9 3 PESO $9.87          
Riccarton Park 9 5 MILK IT $7.32          
Riccarton Park 9 6 SMILING ASSASSIN $40.54          
Riccarton Park 9 8 OREPUKI LAD $62.50          
Riccarton Park 9 10 GOLDEN BAY scr          
Te Rapa 8 9 PEARLESCENCE $149.99          
Te Rapa 8 10 SHERIFFS DAUGHTER $20.83          
Riccarton Park 10 5 ROCK ISLAND LINE $78.95          

 

poor tommys head will be spinning now with all that info

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Guest CrossCodes

All the information in the world can't beat a leaders bias though.

4 races down at Te Rapa and every leader has won.

Might change now that everyone will want to lead but we will see.

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Guest CrossCodes

7 races down and 5 leaders have won,  So much Mour in front shortly after turning for home and won. 

Ingrained won but was camped in 3rd spot during the running.

What a boring days racing.

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Well, an interesting day for those down in graders. Best bet may well have been to lay off the ones well under the odds - such as Fire Lily, Impulsive Habit, Hand It To Jonesy, Smiling Assassin, Orepuki Lad, Pearlescence and Rock Island Line. Starting to question this whole down in grade malarkey. 

Track Race # Horse Rated SP Result Win At Value Return
Te Rapa 1 1 CALL ME ROYAL $4.46 $5.50 1 $5.50 1 $5.50
Te Rapa 1 2 YOUWANTMORE $6.98 $2.30 3      
Te Rapa 1 5 BEAUFIGHTER $3.86 $3.30 4      
Riccarton Park 3 1 NOWHERE MAN $6.00 $7.50     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 3 3 MANHATTAN STREET $18.29 $5.50 3      
Riccarton Park 3 5 BORN A ROYAL $6.30 $11.00     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 3 6 HE KIN FLY $3.97 $12.00 1 $12.00 1 $12.00
Riccarton Park 3 7 GALWAY GARRY $17.05 $14.00        
Riccarton Park 3 9 UPPERHAND $10.49 $3.20 2      
Riccarton Park 3 10 FIRE LILY $100.00 $7.00 4      
Riccarton Park 3 12 SHOWPIN $10.95 $31.00     1 $0.00
Te Rapa 2 3 TEMPLE TIGER $5.64 $3.60 3      
Te Rapa 2 6 STRADIVARIUS $7.01 $4.40 1 $4.40    
Te Rapa 2 8 AZ GIVEN $5.84 $12.00     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 4 2 DELACROIX $4.67 $2.90 3      
Te Rapa 3 2 MORE WONDER $4.30 $7.00     1 $0.00
Te Rapa 5 3 TRUEMAN $9.87 $15.00 2   1 $0.00
Te Rapa 5 4 IMPULSIVE HABIT $300.03 $7.00        
Te Rapa 5 6 OHCEEDEE scr          
Te Rapa 5 7 BANROCK $6.79 $34.00 4   1 $0.00
Te Rapa 5 9 DIRECT CAPITAL $17.24 $26.00     1 $0.00
Te Rapa 5 11 SOUND WORKS $7.77 $12.00     1 $0.00
Te Rapa 5 13 REAL FUN $11.03 $18.00     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 7 6 SARONIC MISS $3.61 $5.00     1 $0.00
Te Rapa 6 2 JULIUS $2.50 $1.70 1 $1.70    
Te Rapa 6 5 MAGNUM scr          
Te Rapa 7 11 JET CHARGED $4.79 $12.00 4   1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 9 1 HAND IT TO JONESY $30.61 $3.00        
Riccarton Park 9 3 PESO $9.87 $6.50 3      
Riccarton Park 9 5 MILK IT $7.32 $26.00     1 $0.00
Riccarton Park 9 6 SMILING ASSASSIN $40.54 $6.00        
Riccarton Park 9 8 OREPUKI LAD $62.50 $9.00        
Riccarton Park 9 10 GOLDEN BAY scr          
Te Rapa 8 9 PEARLESCENCE $149.99 $11.00        
Te Rapa 8 10 SHERIFFS DAUGHTER $20.83 $9.50 2      
Riccarton Park 10 5 ROCK ISLAND LINE $78.95 $6.50        
          Total 33 $23.60 15 $17.50
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Do you know what the warmth of a woman feels like Rid?

...or curious if you're that way inclined?

I feel you could do with a bit of that...

...at present you have far too much time on your hands....among other things

...besides...

You left out superior class back to inferior...He Kin F In Fly's superior HK form on dry tracks over shorter distances...12's were supremo...

and htf did you leave out Black Laces R 75 form..back to R 65 at 20's ffs

wake the f up

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What are you going on about? I had He Kin Fly in my 'selections' - which I priced at $4. I don't need to know about down in grade, I need to know about performance.

As for Black Lace, thanks - I'll update my criteria now that you're claiming a midweek R75 is superior grade to a Saturday R65. You've always stated that Saturday grade is superior to midweek. I guess not when the horse wins and you can tell us about it after the event.

Not to mention the stake of the two races which you no doubt think is a measure of 'superior'. Except not in this case. I'm going to love the new criteria. Thanks.

As for too much time. I produced that list of your down in grade horses in 10 seconds. The time it took me to copy and paste it on here.

Edited by mardigras
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38 minutes ago, Thomass said:

..He Kin F In Fly's superior HK form on dry tracks over shorter distances...12's were supremo...

 

Thanks for this also. I'll have to add that 'superior' from over a year back also counts - even after 8 starts since. And that when you claim track conditions matter, they don't matter when you assess your 'superior' form. Since the Good track Sha Tin was of no consequence to it running on a Slow track, even though you've repeatedly gone on about how much of a difference track conditions make. Thanks again. These are all great additions to the 'theory'.

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26 minutes ago, mardigras said:

What are you going on about? I had He Kin Fly in my 'selections' - which I priced at $4. I don't need to know about down in grade, I need to know about performance.

As for Black Lace, thanks - I'll update my criteria now that you're claiming a midweek R75 is superior grade to a Saturday R65. You've always stated that Saturday grade is superior to midweek. I guess not when the horse wins and you can tell us about it after the event.

Not to mention the stake of the two races which you no doubt think is a measure of 'superior'. Except not in this case. I'm going to love the new criteria. Thanks.

As for too much time. I produced that list of your down in grade horses in 10 seconds. The time it took me to copy and paste it on here.

PILLOCKS is you

HKF's HK's performances were SUPERIOR...that translates directly to 'down in grade' back here

How stupid are you?  

As for BL I'm referring to her SUPERIOR middle distance performances on Premier days...on the course...of course...in R 75 and even R 85...again on Premier superior form days...

...she was obviously over her recent problems...rubber stamped by her last performance over an unsuitable distance...

Youre not very good at this are you..

On a cursory look you appeared to think R 75 was down in class to R 72...the new rating band

dickhead

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5 minutes ago, Thomass said:

HKF's HK's performances were SUPERIOR...that translates directly to 'down in grade' back here

As for BL I'm referring to her SUPERIOR middle distance performances on Premier days...on the course...of course...in R 75 and even R 85...again on Premier superior form days...

 

As I say, thanks. I'll be able to bring in horses that raced over a year ago, in what you call 'superior' and bring them up for discussion. Cheers. You must have backed He Kin Fly for the 7 starts it had before winning, since it was 'superior' form for all of those races. Makes the 12s pretty average on that basis.

And Black Lace hadn't raced in a R85 for over 18 months. And you still count it as 'superior' . I'm gonna have a field day. 12 starts later and you're claiming it (after the event of course). Including a number of starts at a middle distance. You must have been backing it repeatedly.

I can't thank you enough for these little snippets.

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8 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Are you the sole judge of what is down in grade? Didn't think so.

Just imagine going to a Restaurant with him and he orders a Medium Rare Steak, NO not that Medium Rare, the other one, the Well Done one, but not that Well Done, the Rare one, but Blue.

What a fark stick he is.

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Guest CrossCodes

The main factor in Black Lace winning wasn't anything to do with her last start, it was the fact it was ridden handy on a day where no winners came from further back from 2nd or 3rd turning for home, it was a complete leaders bias track and no matter how much study you did it made no difference if you weren't handy in the turn!

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Are you the sole judge of what is down in grade? Didn't think so.

It shows how blatantly ignorant you is...

To be including the new rating band as a "downgrade" when its next to the same is just thick az

..but you do thick az two short planks well...planker 

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

As I say, thanks. I'll be able to bring in horses that raced over a year ago, in what you call 'superior' and bring them up for discussion. Cheers. You must have backed He Kin Fly for the 7 starts it had before winning, since it was 'superior' form for all of those races. Makes the 12s pretty average on that basis.

And Black Lace hadn't raced in a R85 for over 18 months. And you still count it as 'superior' . I'm gonna have a field day. 12 starts later and you're claiming it (after the event of course). Including a number of starts at a middle distance. You must have been backing it repeatedly.

I can't thank you enough for these little snippets.

There you go again..thinking I'm 'on' for every single start...for the same investment

idiot

I rated his 'value' at 10's yesterday...anything under I don't touch

Obviously a neddy operating on Shatin ground has to have red flashing lights on it when starting on a NZ H1...although it didn't go too bad....indicating the S 8 would be fine...trained on the course add another 20%

As for BL...she'd matured and strengthened a few starts back to run well in higher class over 2400M...

...that's her forte...if you think I'm on a stayer, to the max, for her early prep runs..and then her starts with obvious problems...then losing form for a few starts

...you're mad az...but you take no notice of excuses do you?....and treat "3 wide in the open" the same as "perfect trail"

2x idiot

...the good start 1400M run showed she was back to her previous superior form and capabilities...especially in a weaker R 65 class....I rated her value at 12's...started 22's

Bazz would have got 66's 

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43 minutes ago, CrossCodes said:

The main factor in Black Lace winning wasn't anything to do with her last start, it was the fact it was ridden handy on a day where no winners came from further back from 2nd or 3rd turning for home, it was a complete leaders bias track and no matter how much study you did it made no difference if you weren't handy in the turn!

It indicated she was fit enough to re capture her previous superior Premier form over a middle distance..in a superior class of race...

...where she raced handy throughout on the same course...

 

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