One for the Conspiracists! Nothing found at the Telfers.

[Gammalite]

9 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

at it again.

Well when one of the blokes points is that he says the RIB is saying 'Oh well, as long as it can still stand, keep racing the horse until it drops dead like the other three" you know the whole thing is Baloney of the highest order.

Just insulting to everybody including the readers and owners of racehorses.

Official report said a thorough investigation was made, post mortum completed , Toxicology reports filed  and nothing un-toward was found. the horses can be like people and just have heriditary cardiomyopathy and the like. Don't know why that is so strange. Accusing a trainer of wrong -doing for heart defect is just being mean really.

Galah is pointing out a slump in stable form ? so thinks something is up . reduced runners and winners. seems this is a reasonable observation.

2021  had about 700 starts for around 100 wins,      2022  about 500 starts for around 100 wins 

2023 to date, is about 120 starts (would be 360 by years end at this rate,  22 wins (so about only 66 wins by years end at the current rate )

so yes a serious drop off it seems?  , even with the addition of great horseman Hayden Cullen to the team. so times are tough, or getting tougher for the team ??  BD Joe, Alta Wiseguy and Kahlua Flyby (3 of their better ones who were good enough to have an Oz campaign)) are yet to win in NZ this year/season. they had moderate success in Oz.

To me,  this is because of the quality of the opponents they race, nothing to do with 3 dead horses.   

[Chief Stipe]

9 hours ago, Gammalite said:

2021  had about 700 starts for around 100 wins,      2022  about 500 starts for around 100 wins 

2023 to date, is about 120 starts (would be 360 by years end at this rate,  22 wins (so about only 66 wins by years end at the current rate )

Yet the Telfer Stable UDR is better this year than 2020 and 2021.  So the performance argument doesn't hold up does it.

So whatever it is inferred they are using isn't as good as any number of other trainers.

[Chief Stipe]

13 hours ago, the galah said:

Having said that,its my opinion the telfer stable has paid a price.

Apart from the obvious unwanted attention,one of the most obvious things any current harness racing followers must have noticed,had they given it any thought,is the  significant reduction in number of horses the stable has been lining up,in particular the North island branch of the stable. Also the recent drop off in performances of many of the horses that raced from that stable last year.Compare their starter numbers and udrs from last year to this.

Also as an indicator,look at the udr of what i thought was the number 1 north island stable driver.James stormont reportedly begun work at the telfer stable at the end of last year. In 2022 he had a udr of 2.173,with 19 wins from 158 starts. This year his udr is 1.111,with 3 wins from 52 starts.

One consistent pattern when it comes to matters like this,you see what i have mentioned above occur after scrutiny,whatever the stable in question may be.Theres been so many examples in history that it's an undeniable fact. 

Currently. I think the telfer stable has made changes and they are doing their best to not make any mistakes that could compromise their horses health.They have recognised their horses health is their top priority. 

 

9 hours ago, Gammalite said:

Galah is pointing out a slump in stable form ? so thinks something is up . reduced runners and winners. seems this is a reasonable observation.

2021  had about 700 starts for around 100 wins,      2022  about 500 starts for around 100 wins 

2023 to date, is about 120 starts (would be 360 by years end at this rate,  22 wins (so about only 66 wins by years end at the current rate )   

I don't think either of you in your analysis have accounted for the official change in season HRNZ racing calendar.  Where the season was changed from a 1 August to 31 July year to a Calendar year starting 1 January.

[the galah]

4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

 

I don't think either of you in your analysis have accounted for the official change in season HRNZ racing calendar.  Where the season was changed from a 1 August to 31 July year to a Calendar year starting 1 January.

That does apply for the year ending 2021. So that is a relevant point you make in respect to that year.In 2021,the extra 5 months boosted the telfer starts to 718 that year. Last year they had 506 starts. This year 1/3 of the way through they have had only 120 starts,a clear reduction.

Mick Guerin wrote an article last december saying the telfers would be expanding the numbers in training to 120 individual horses this season.Obviously increasing numbers in training doesn't increase the number of starts overnight,but the point is there hasn't been any reduction in numbers trained. 

[the galah]

15 hours ago, Gammalite said:

Well when one of the blokes points is that he says the RIB is saying 'Oh well, as long as it can still stand, keep racing the horse until it drops dead like the other three" you know the whole thing is Baloney of the highest order.

Just insulting to everybody including the readers and owners of racehorses.

Official report said a thorough investigation was made, post mortum completed , Toxicology reports filed  and nothing un-toward was found. the horses can be like people and just have heriditary cardiomyopathy and the like. Don't know why that is so strange. Accusing a trainer of wrong -doing for heart defect is just being mean really.

Galah is pointing out a slump in stable form ? so thinks something is up . reduced runners and winners. seems this is a reasonable observation.

2021  had about 700 starts for around 100 wins,      2022  about 500 starts for around 100 wins 

2023 to date, is about 120 starts (would be 360 by years end at this rate,  22 wins (so about only 66 wins by years end at the current rate )

so yes a serious drop off it seems?  , even with the addition of great horseman Hayden Cullen to the team. so times are tough, or getting tougher for the team ??  BD Joe, Alta Wiseguy and Kahlua Flyby (3 of their better ones who were good enough to have an Oz campaign)) are yet to win in NZ this year/season. they had moderate success in Oz.

To me,  this is because of the quality of the opponents they race, nothing to do with 3 dead horses.   

Fair enough.

Though i would say that by limiting the view of the telfer horses to just the issue of horse deaths,doesn't take into account the point i have often made about the unusual number of telfer trained horses that have dropped out in their races over the last year or so. 

I've given many examples over time. They are after all the winner of the trainers premiership last year,yet they have had many run last by long distances,some pulling up distressed.

I gave the example last month of the lead up meeting to the grins meeting. That night they had 7 starters for 4 lasts,with runners being beaten by as much as 80 lengths,47 lengths and 33 lengths. Sometimes manners has been a factor,and that happens, but sometimes its not apparent why.One of them they said that night choked down,but it had walked home a couple of starts prior as well.Then of course they lined up just the one on grins night,bd joe and he dropped out to a bad last by 36 lengths.

I can see why there are differing opinions on the subject.

Edited May 9, 2023 by the galah

[Chief Stipe]

47 minutes ago, the galah said:

That does apply for the year ending 2021. So that is a relevant point you make in respect to that year.In 2021,the extra 5 months boosted the telfer starts to 718 that year. Last year they had 506 starts. This year 1/3 of the way through they have had only 120 starts,a clear reduction.

Mick Guerin wrote an article last december saying the telfers would be expanding the numbers in training to 120 individual horses this season.Obviously increasing numbers in training doesn't increase the number of starts overnight,but the point is there hasn't been any reduction in numbers trained. 

They may have said that they intended to increase the numbers in training but that takes time as well.

If Cullen learnt anything at the Purdons he would be culling anything that was slow.  So I imagine there has been a clean out as well.

Either way I don't get your point.  Or indeed any inference you may be intending. 

[Chief Stipe]

18 minutes ago, the galah said:

Then of course they lined up just the one on grins night,bd joe and he dropped out to a bad last by 36 lengths.

BD Joe has a habit of doing that though doesn't he.  Puts in a cracker then runs like a mug the next week.

[the galah]

3 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

They may have said that they intended to increase the numbers in training but that takes time as well.

If Cullen learnt anything at the Purdons he would be culling anything that was slow.  So I imagine there has been a clean out as well.

Either way I don't get your point.  Or indeed any inference you may be intending. 

My point is i'm guessing they have been a little bit rattled by what has happened previously and have been trying to be cautious. Obviously they wouldn't take horses to the races if they thought something may go wrong and they take pride in their horses performances.Hopefully they have worked it all out by now as some,like myself,think some of the horses they care very much about have paid  a price for errors they have made. 

[Chief Stipe]

10 minutes ago, the galah said:

My point is i'm guessing they have been a little bit rattled by what has happened previously and have been trying to be cautious. Obviously they wouldn't take horses to the races if they thought something may go wrong and they take pride in their horses performances.Hopefully they have worked it all out by now as some,like myself,think some of the horses they care very much about have paid  a price for errors they have made. 

What "errors"?  Are you saying since Cullen moved from Purdon's stable to the Telfers they started making "errors"?

[the galah]

4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

What "errors"?  Are you saying since Cullen moved from Purdon's stable to the Telfers they started making "errors"?

I'm referring to the reason(error) for the stable having more race deaths in such a short space of time along with the higher number of horses dropping out of races,than any other stable i can ever think of.

Obviously i believe there has been a pattern of events. Thats indisputable, even though not everyone acknowledges it.

I think the most likely cause is the horses have been treated with something(not saying anything illegal here), and the adverse, unintentional effects of  treatment, has impacted the racing performances/health of some  of the horses from that stable.

I haven't heard any other explanation yet that makes any sense.

Its nothing to do with cullen,as you must know. i think he is a man of very high integrity. Thats probably part of why the telfers wanted him as part of their team.

As i have said before,i think this topic is fading into  past news. New horses will come through the stable,and the stable will put it all behind them.  

The topic to me is just another reason why harness racing has been on the decline.   

People place too much emphasis on defending reputations and standing. No one is perfect,people make mistakes,consequences often far outweigh actions,etc ,etc.

But for harness racing,many people in the industry have this go to defense mechanism to observations or criticism.Too often the response to mistakes made are to always paint those who transgress as  infallible, always maintaining virtuous behavior. However there is also often an undeniable double standard,depending on the level of success of the people involved. Why are the high achievers somehow incapable of errors and possessing of more virtue than the less achievers?Anyway,thats me done on this topic..

Edited May 9, 2023 by the galah

[Special Agent]

The only errors I can see have been written by the galah, and of course Basil's statistics are awry.  Sorry galah your points make no sense and, as you say, you are guessing.

[paleface adios]

4 hours ago, the galah said:

My point is i'm guessing they have been a little bit rattled by what has happened previously and have been trying to be cautious. Obviously they wouldn't take horses to the races if they thought something may go wrong and they take pride in their horses performances.Hopefully they have worked it all out by now as some,like myself,think some of the horses they care very much about have paid  a price for errors they have made. 

galah didn't your URD  drop away when pre race blood testing come in? and your good stipe friend had to give up training

[the galah]

 

8 minutes ago, Special Agent said:

The only errors I can see have been written by the galah, and of course Basil's statistics are awry.  Sorry galah your points make no sense and, as you say, you are guessing.

I obviously don't agree,but each to their own.

 

8 minutes ago, paleface adios said:

galah didn't your URD  drop away when pre race blood testing come in? and your good stipe friend had to give up training

From your posts i guess who you are thinking about,but i don't think that a fair comment about him anyway. From your posts,we wouldn't agree on that much,but i think we would actually get on well if we met.  I like a lot about how you think. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by the galah