the galah Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I know i've said it before,by why do punters keep backing the whale tips. I say that not because he doesn't know his stuff,but because every horse he ever tips seems to get huge punter support and they always pay well below their realistic prices.As a result anyone who follows his tips is not likely to make a profit.Just work out a dollar each way on his tips and you will see what i mean. Also,because every selection he ever makes has 3 drops in prices as soon as the tab puts the fixed odd prices up,i am assuming he is one of those punters who the tab have an algorithm on his account and accounts associated that he uses. Having watched him,i think its the confidence he displays and the hype the trackside presenters give him, that sells his selections to the punters. i much prefer the mark cookson approach myself. He gives most horses a mention and while he gives selections he doesb't push as hard and doesn't effect prices like others do. I reminds me a lot of how dave mcdonald did things. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 45 minutes ago, the galah said: I know i've said it before,by why do punters keep backing the whale tips. I say that not because he doesn't know his stuff,but because every horse he ever tips seems to get huge punter support and they always pay well below their realistic prices.As a result anyone who follows his tips is not likely to make a profit.Just work out a dollar each way on his tips and you will see what i mean. Also,because every selection he ever makes has 3 drops in prices as soon as the tab puts the fixed odd prices up,i am assuming he is one of those punters who the tab have an algorithm on his account and accounts associated that he uses. Having watched him,i think its the confidence he displays and the hype the trackside presenters give him, that sells his selections to the punters. i much prefer the mark cookson approach myself. He gives most horses a mention and while he gives selections he doesb't push as hard and doesn't effect prices like others do. I reminds me a lot of how dave mcdonald did things. I saw on trackside tonight he is confident on Mandown paying $1.65 in a four horse race tomorrow night at Auckland LOL. Unbelievable hahahahaha 🤣🤣🤣 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 48 minutes ago, Nowornever said: I saw on trackside tonight he is confident on Mandown paying $1.65 in a four horse race tomorrow night at Auckland LOL. Unbelievable hahahahaha 🤣🤣🤣 The other 2 he has tipped at auckland are currently paying $1.65 to win and one he says to back for a place paying $2.50. his 3 tips at winton are currently paying to win $2.40,$2.70 and $6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Most know that you will not make money long term by backing favourites, and that is basically what Craig tips. How can his tips pay fair money at race closure time as Craig backs them at odds opening, he tips them on his paid tip line and then on Trackside????? Personally dont know why anyone would subscribe to a Tip Line as part of the fun of punting is picking the winners yourself! Making good money from punting has been made a lot harder nowadays by the TAB Bookies and the unfair policies they have brought in and the treatment to punters that have ability to WIN! However these draconian unfair policies are part of the major problems that is going to kill off racing in NZ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forbury Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 The whale is trying his best he might just go 3/3 today.3 losing favourites that is 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Forbury said: The whale is trying his best he might just go 3/3 today.3 losing favourites that is Wet track will trip up some today but he has picked form horses. Craig does does do a lot of analysis obviously but It is interesting when he picks a horse and then shows a video of the horse on a grass track when the horse is facing on an all weather track or vise versa?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Forbury said: The whale is trying his best he might just go 3/3 today.3 losing favourites that is He might be due to return a profit. He hasn't in the 3 meetings so far this week. Its not his fault that the horses he tips always drop about half their opening prices. Thats what this thread is about. Theres no denying his knowledge. i think its a worrying sign when punters know so little about what horses they bet on and follow his tips like sheep. The final dividends of his selections never are an accurate reflection of their chances. And its not like punters are getting on early at the higher prices. If you follow the fixed odds markets you would see that someone,i assume the whale,is punting them as soon as the markets come out the day before,so the sheep punters are always backing at the silly prices,irrespective of whether they win or lose. Ive often wondered if the whales tips are bet on by people who are laundering drug money or something like that. Or is he appealing to the casual punter? Commentator selections always see significant drops in prices,just not to the same extent as the whale. The whale is a great salesman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spatchcock Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 22 hours ago, the galah said: He might be due to return a profit. He hasn't in the 3 meetings so far this week. Its not his fault that the horses he tips always drop about half their opening prices. Thats what this thread is about. Theres no denying his knowledge. i think its a worrying sign when punters know so little about what horses they bet on and follow his tips like sheep. The final dividends of his selections never are an accurate reflection of their chances. And its not like punters are getting on early at the higher prices. If you follow the fixed odds markets you would see that someone,i assume the whale,is punting them as soon as the markets come out the day before,so the sheep punters are always backing at the silly prices,irrespective of whether they win or lose. Ive often wondered if the whales tips are bet on by people who are laundering drug money or something like that. Or is he appealing to the casual punter? Commentator selections always see significant drops in prices,just not to the same extent as the whale. The whale is a great salesman. quit your whinging. You obviously do your own form so what does it matter? I was watching Cookson the other night before Race 1. I dozed off almost immediately and woke up and it was Race 10. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Spatchcock said: quit your whinging. You obviously do your own form so what does it matter? I was watching Cookson the other night before Race 1. I dozed off almost immediately and woke up and it was Race 10. i could say..... stop your whinging when it comes to your comments about cookson......... But i'm not here to somehow attempt to undermine your opinion on something.I'll leave that to you. Having said that,this forum is about expressing opinions,so go for it. What does it matter you ask. Well i explained that. Obviously you didn't pick that up. I can say my first thoughts when i read your reply was to have a wee chuckle. Edited March 6, 2023 by the galah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 7 hours ago, Spatchcock said: quit your whinging. You obviously do your own form so what does it matter? I was watching Cookson the other night before Race 1. I dozed off almost immediately and woke up and it was Race 10. spatchcock. I had an idea you like commenting on people so i looked up your last 10 posts.Its not something i have done before,but it confirmed my memory still works to some extent. Heres how you have described other posters in your last 10 posts. whinging, sook, mug, throw computer into the river before they post, chip on shoulder, ludicrous, refrain from smoking drugs before posting. I think theres a pattern there. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, the galah said: spatchcock. I had an idea you like commenting on people so i looked up your last 10 posts.Its not something i have done before,but it confirmed my memory still works to some extent. Heres how you have described other posters in your last 10 posts. whinging, sook, mug, throw computer into the river before they post, chip on shoulder, ludicrous, refrain from smoking drugs before posting. I think theres a pattern there. To be fair, his name says it all! SpatchCOCK hardly ever contributes except wants to have a crack at someone! Wouldnt lose any sleep over it though. Edited March 6, 2023 by Brodie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paleface adios Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 hours ago, the galah said: whinging, sook, mug, throw computer into the river before they post, chip on shoulder, ludicrous, refrain from smoking drugs before posting. I think theres a pattern there. everything ok @ loburn galah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) Who knows,but maybe the whale reads bit of a yarn. Because this week he has gone for horses paying better prices. But this thread isn't about doubting his knowledge or selections,its about the impact he has on prices. Well tonight his 4 selections $4.50 into $3.60,$13 into $8.50,$3.80 into $2.50,$2.80 into $2.40 Tomorrow $6 into $4.50,$4.50 into $2.80,$8.50 into $6,$3 into $2.70,$2.70 into $2.20 and 1 thats price hasn't dropped. Thats just his whale watch tips above the betting markets on the tab website. So 9 of the 10 horses selected have seen significant drops in prices. All having been win and place movers 3 times in a matter of a few seconds. I would assume he is betting on 3 different tab accounts that the TAB have linked. The reality is tomorrows markets have only just come out and the price drops happened almost immediately. So i would suggest there is your answer why the TAB promote his selections each time on the website. Anyone who is betting on them is getting them at odds well below realistic value. The realistic value is gone with seconds of the odds coming out.So going by the law of averages,the TAB should always come out on top overall because punters are still investing ,despite the unrealistic odds. Maybe its trackside and its presenters who are the ones who should know better than to suggest punters back his selections,knowing they are always paying under the odds. Edited March 9, 2023 by the galah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 48 minutes ago, the galah said: So going by the law of averages,the TAB should always come out on top overall because punters are still investing ,despite the unrealistic odds. Well unrealistic odds and the fact if you punted on every horse he tipped you would be on a sinking ship because his % of winning is simply not high enough even at the opening odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Craig would be paid by the NZTAB seem he is on Trackside. Do we really think that it would be in the TAB’s best interests for their employee to actually be tipping out horses that punters would offload on with the Bookies so that the Bookies lose???? Total conflict of interest and questionable that people should be paying a TIPLINE for the same picks that he shows on the WHALE WATCH! Anyway, I suppose if you are not clever enough to do your own research and want to pay someone who also tips the whole country the same tips then it is your business! Just does not make a lot of sense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, Brodie said: Craig would be paid by the NZTAB seem he is on Trackside. Do we really think that it would be in the TAB’s best interests for their employee to actually be tipping out horses that punters would offload on with the Bookies so that the Bookies lose???? Total conflict of interest and questionable that people should be paying a TIPLINE for the same picks that he shows on the WHALE WATCH! Anyway, I suppose if you are not clever enough to do your own research and want to pay someone who also tips the whole country the same tips then it is your business! Just does not make a lot of sense. The Whale is probably only surviving on his rebates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 hours ago, Nowornever said: Well unrealistic odds and the fact if you punted on every horse he tipped you would be on a sinking ship because his % of winning is simply not high enough even at the opening odds. 1 placing from 4 tonight. To be fair we all have bad runs i suppose.Tomorrow may see his luck change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: The Whale is probably only surviving on his rebates. I had thought they pay the rebates on % of tote turnover.You need to be turning over large amounts to get much of a rebate. And i can't see the whale spending much on the tote.Every horse he tips pays so far under the odds that he won't be making much money if he is betting on the tote. As i have said before,nearly every major ff odds mover has the same thing happen to it on the tote. So a horse that closes under the odds on the ff market because the whale tipped it,will be doing the same on the tote. Maybe he does get a rebate if he loses on the ff odds. I'm not sure how it works if that were the case. The tab don't always stick to what they say as far as rewarding punters with rebates. I enquired a couple of years ago what the turnover threshold was. I did that turnover within 3 months during covid when there was no nz harness racing,betting on an australian states harness racing.They never rewarded me with rebates . When i inquired they told me the criteria had changed..So i stopped spending the $30,000 a month.I felt they mislead me.I don't spend anything on it now. I do think some of those that are lucky enough to get rebates, are well looked after by the tab people who handle the elite customers. However i would question how many of those receiving rebates from the tab, are receiving them by doing the bulk of their betting on nz harness. Thats a point that is very important to harness racing,and harness racing should not get sucked in by what the tab says around elite customer numbers. i know how it works,and nz harness racing pools have become too small to encourage larger wagering. The TAB with their algorithms on certain accounts are also killing the level of tote betting for some. In my opinion,the tab is doing harness racing a major disservice and part of the reason is because they don't care that much about harness racing anyway.They have other priorities. Edited March 9, 2023 by the galah 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, the galah said: I had thought they pay the rebates on % of tote turnover.You need to be turning over large amounts to get much of a rebate. And i can't see the whale spending much on the tote.Every horse he tips pays so far under the odds that he won't be making much money if he is betting on the tote. As i have said before,nearly every major ff odds mover has the same thing happen to it on the tote. So a horse that closes under the odds on the ff market because the whale tipped it,will be doing the same on the tote. Maybe he does get a rebate if he loses on the ff odds. I'm not sure how it works if that were the case. The tab don't always stick to what they say as far as rewarding punters with rebates. I enquired a couple of years ago what the turnover threshold was. I did that turnover within 3 months during covid when there was no nz harness racing,betting on an australian states harness racing.They never rewarded me with rebates . When i inquired they told me the criteria had changed..So i stopped spending the $30,000 a month.I felt they mislead me.I don't spend anything on it now. I do think some of those that are lucky enough to get rebates, are well looked after by the tab people who handle the elite customers. However i would question how many of those receiving rebates from the tab, are receiving them by doing the bulk of their betting on nz harness. Thats a point that is very important to harness racing,and harness racing should not get sucked in by what the tab says around elite customer numbers. i know how it works,and nz harness racing pools have become too small to encourage larger wagering. The TAB with their algorithms on certain accounts are also killing the level of tote betting for some. In my opinion,the tab is doing harness racing a major disservice and part of the reason is because they don't care that much about harness racing anyway.They have other priorities. When i talk about rebates,ir refers to money spent on someones TAB account only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Elite customers are customers who are losing punters a d that is why they like to look after them. Punters that win are not welcome by the NZ TAB, and they are not treated with any sort of fairness! Yes the TAB would love to be able to bet rid of harness racing and some of their policies is totally in line with achieving this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, the galah said: The tab don't always stick to what they say as far as rewarding punters with rebates. I enquired a couple of years ago what the turnover threshold was. I did that turnover within 3 months during covid when there was no nz harness racing,betting on an australian states harness racing.They never rewarded me with rebates . When i inquired they told me the criteria had changed..So i stopped spending the $30,000 a month.I felt they mislead me.I don't spend anything on it now. It is a points based system and if your turnover was on aussie races then the points earned used to be much less than on domestic racing so probably did not qualify you for elite status. Also fixed odds betting I think is also lower for earning points. The top points earned used to be turnover on exotic bets on domestic racing. I think if you turned over 30K a month solely on trifectas and first fours on NZ harness you would easily qualify for elite status and get a rebate on your 30K monthly turnover depending on what elite level you were on. Edited March 9, 2023 by Nowornever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, Nowornever said: It is a points based system and if your turnover was on aussie races then the points earned used to be much less than on domestic racing so probably did not qualify you for elite status. Also fixed odds betting I think is also lower for earning points. The top points earned used to be turnover on exotic bets on domestic racing. I think if you turned over 30K a month solely on trifectas and first fours on NZ harness you would easily qualify for elite status and get a rebate on your 30K monthly turnover depending on what elite level you were on. thanks for that. I understand the points are the same for every standard bet,whether they be domestic or imported. They differ slightly if they are exotic bets on domestic or imported.. Your correct in that the fixed odds has lower points,but in my case i didn't bet on fixed odds at the time because i wanted to meet the threshold,which i did going on what they told me it was.. As you say,the level of rebates paid depend on which tier threshold you are in,and what type of bet type.You may for example get one and a half % more for bets in exotic pools like trifectas than you would an each way bet on the tote. Perhaps the best way for the TAB to be held accountable on whether they really are encouraging or discouraging so called elite customer spend on harness racing,would be for harness racing to ask for a breakdown in the figures. In other words what is the total spend of elite customers specifically on harness racing. And what % of $ paid out in rebates is a result of spend on harness racing. Then compare those figures to previous years. My opinion is harness racing is not being looked after by the TAB. The TAB or any future partner needs to be held accountable by those that run Harness racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spatchcock Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 On 6/03/2023 at 6:50 PM, the galah said: spatchcock. I had an idea you like commenting on people so i looked up your last 10 posts.Its not something i have done before,but it confirmed my memory still works to some extent. Heres how you have described other posters in your last 10 posts. whinging, sook, mug, throw computer into the river before they post, chip on shoulder, ludicrous, refrain from smoking drugs before posting. I think theres a pattern there. Someone has to hold the lunatic fringe to account in here. Take away any aimed at Brodie and it's a lot more reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Spatchcock said: Someone has to hold the lunatic fringe to account in here. Take away any aimed at Brodie and it's a lot more reasonable. Lunatic fringe,thats a new one,i'll add that to your list.. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Spatchcock said: Someone has to hold the lunatic fringe to account in here. Take away any aimed at Brodie and it's a lot more reasonable. SpatchCOCK, seriously if you can not say anything that has any semblance of worth, we would have to question your intentions? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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