the galah Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 The TAB have a deliberate policy of setting his selections at reduced odds,working on the theory that he's pretty good at picking winners. It works for them and i'm sure they love the whale as they know they may take the occasional loss,but that they will come out a fair way ahead in the long run by selling bets at ridiculously short odds.. But i think its a bad thing the TAB promote his selections as if they are doing the punters a favour and are giving punters good advice. If they are to use the whale,what they should be doing is telling people his selections and at the same time telling them what the whale considers is a realistic price for his selections.That should be in brackets beside his selections whenever it features on trackside. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 11 hours ago, the galah said: The TAB have a deliberate policy of setting his selections at reduced odds,working on the theory that he's pretty good at picking winners. It works for them and i'm sure they love the whale as they know they may take the occasional loss,but that they will come out a fair way ahead in the long run by selling bets at ridiculously short odds.. But i think its a bad thing the TAB promote his selections as if they are doing the punters a favour and are giving punters good advice. If they are to use the whale,what they should be doing is telling people his selections and at the same time telling them what the whale considers is a realistic price for his selections.That should be in brackets beside his selections whenever it features on trackside. At the end of the day, it is up to the Punter whether they want to take advice from the many Tipsters! Whether it be Craig Thompson, the commentator, Trackside presenter or the online ones! Personally i would’ve thought that the fun of punting was selecting the winners yourself? Following someone elses tips and backing them is a bit boring and in most cases a surefire way of losing! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Brodie said: At the end of the day, it is up to the Punter whether they want to take advice from the many Tipsters! Whether it be Craig Thompson, the commentator, Trackside presenter or the online ones! Personally i would’ve thought that the fun of punting was selecting the winners yourself? Following someone elses tips and backing them is a bit boring and in most cases a surefire way of losing! I don't want to be mean spirited about this but the Whale turns me off. Every time I look at Harness Racing regardless of where the meeting is, I'm forced to endure the Whale. He may well be a decent man with excellent knowledge of harness racing but from my perspective he's far king boring and adds nothing to my enjoyment of the game. I've never once allowed his input to influence my wager. When he talks the mute comes on. If we want to introduce or keep younger people in the game, we need more vibrant, stimulating younger people in these roles, preferably, one based in Auckland and one in Canterbury. Craig Thompson is best suited in my opinion to a 0900 number where you only cop his input when you've sought it. I really look forward to NZ Cup day but when he is front and centre of the presentation, I cringe. The only influence he has on me is negative. I have no knowledge if his tipping is good or not bad and don't really care. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted July 28, 2023 Author Share Posted July 28, 2023 (edited) we've all seen the TAB bookmakers open his selections at realistic ff odds,then the whale obviously backs his horses as soon as the markets come out on 2 or 3 accounts,and then the bookmakers immediately slash the odds to about half of what would be a realistic price. There are occasions when his selections odds don't change at that early stage,and i believe they are the times the whale thinks his selections are too far under the realistic odds. So because of this,not long after the ff odds are out,his selections are not at realistic prices and no one should be betting on them for that reason alone. Anyone who claims they can make money from following the trackside whale watch selections overall is either living in the past or simply aren't telling the truth.In one recent period of 3 months i wrote down all his selections and did a profit/ loss record and there was no way you would come out ahead. So the upshot of it all is the whale may be able to make money by getting on at the opening prices,but those who bet on his whale watch selections will not. The question i would ask,by him being on trackside do turnovers increase or decrease.Personally i think trackside have more suitable presenters than him. No one denies his knowledge. But theres no doubt he is an asset for the TAB bookies who do the ff .Thats why they hype him so much on trackside. Harness racing betting pools are clearly dropping. Less people are participating in betting.This has been happening while we see more of the whale and the tab hype his selections more.The whales influence on ff and tote prices has become greater as the betting pools drop.Thats not a good thing. Edited July 28, 2023 by the galah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, the galah said: we've all seen the TAB bookmakers open his selections at realistic ff odds,then the whale obviously backs his horses as soon as the markets come out on 2 or 3 accounts,and then the bookmakers immediately slash the odds to about half of what would be a realistic price. There are occasions when his selections odds don't change at that early stage,and i believe they are the times the whale thinks his selections are too far under the realistic odds. So because of this,not long after the ff odds are out,his selections are not at realistic prices and no one should be betting on them for that reason alone. Anyone who claims they can make money from following the trackside whale watch selections overall is either living in the past or simply aren't telling the truth.In one recent period of 3 months i wrote down all his selections and did a profit/ loss record and there was no way you would come out ahead. So the upshot of it all is the whale may be able to make money by getting on at the opening prices,but those who bet on his whale watch selections will not. The question i would ask,by him being on trackside do turnovers increase or decrease.Personally i think trackside have more suitable presenters than him. No one denies his knowledge. But theres no doubt he is an asset for the TAB bookies who do the ff .Thats why they hype him so much on trackside. Harness racing betting pools are clearly dropping. Less people are participating in betting.This has been happening while we see more of the whale and the tab hype his selections more.The whales influence on ff and tote prices has become greater as the betting pools drop.Thats not a good thing. From what I have been told, Craig is allowed on early, and apparently he is restricted! Not sure whether he makes money on the punt or not, but doubt he does, he would seem to make money out of his Tipline and from being pain by the NZ TAB! It is pretty obvious that the NZ TAB wouldnt be wanting anyone tipping out if they were any good! What Craig is doing is clearly a CONFLICT OF INTEREST! “Whale” is a passionate harness enthusiast and we need plenty more of these in the future so HRNZ really need to be putting all their efforts into retaining and getting new enthusiasts into the sport! Without the betting turnover there is not enough profit for the harness industry to survive medium term! We need punters to be attracted to the sport and we need far more new owners. This is the biggest challenge that racing has to find the answer to! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rangatira Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Brodie said: From what I have been told, Craig is allowed on early, and apparently he is restricted! Not sure whether he makes money on the punt or not, but doubt he does, Would this be the first case of someone being restricted without being a winning punter ? Edited July 28, 2023 by Rangatira 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 So to prove the point,take this weeks whale watch selections as an example. He selected 8 starters and 1 scr. Of the 8 starters,6 have or will start hot favorites,with the other 2 starting 2/1 in the betting. All paying unrealistic short odds. When the tab slash his selections ff odds throughout the day,they never lengthen the other horses odds until the very last minute. Its extremely rare for him to tip a horse at a reasonable price. I do remember one that he did because i had thought it would win myself. It was spirited belle about a year ago and it opened at $41 and closed at $11. It could have proven one of the best whale tips ever,but s abernethy the driver failed to get the memo and drove like he was waiting for next week and every move he made blocked it in and it finished hard held.The following week in a similar field it won paying under $3,with the whale tipping it again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted July 30, 2023 Author Share Posted July 30, 2023 (edited) On 29/07/2023 at 3:24 PM, the galah said: So to prove the point,take this weeks whale watch selections as an example. He selected 8 starters and 1 scr. Of the 8 starters,6 have or will start hot favorites,with the other 2 starting 2/1 in the betting. So he got 2 winners,2 2nds and 1 3rd. from his 8 selections.The highest dividend being a $2.20 winner.That one did open at $3.20 before the whales influence crunched its odds. The hrnz website always has a video clip of his selections yet they never have the unhinged clips. Hard to work it out sometimes. Edited July 30, 2023 by the galah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 On 28/07/2023 at 11:13 AM, Walt said: I've never once allowed his input to influence my wager. I am quite the opposite. I usually back against his tips with great success. They are always paying under the odds and most of the time his picks are the hot favourite that only place or run out of the money anyway. Anyone backing his tips outright are on the losing side of it which I suppose works in the TAB's favour. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted August 3, 2023 Author Share Posted August 3, 2023 To the whales credit,he has changed things around a bit this week. Hes given a preview of the late quaddies at this weeks harness meetings. That will confuse the bookies at the tab a bit and they won't be able to use his knowledge to sucker in punters as easy. Giving a more varied preview where he says in some legs there may be a standout, but in other legs there are 3 or 4 main chances,at least gives the punters some good advice while inviting them to use some of their own brain power if they want to select just one of those mentioned. Also there is a greater possiblity of higher returns if punters do invest on his suggested quaddie and it came home.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowornever Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 21 minutes ago, the galah said: To the whales credit,he has changed things around a bit this week. Hes given a preview of the late quaddies at this weeks harness meetings. That will confuse the bookies at the tab a bit and they won't be able to use his knowledge to sucker in punters as easy. Giving a more varied preview where he says in some legs there may be a standout, but in other legs there are 3 or 4 main chances,at least gives the punters some good advice while inviting them to use some of their own brain power if they want to select just one of those mentioned. Also there is a greater possiblity of higher returns if punters do invest on his suggested quaddie and it came home.. Probably changed due to the amount of social media criticism. It used to be a lot easier for the tipsters when they could just post their tips and forget about it with no accountability. Apart from emailing them there was no way of telling the public how good or bad they were. These days with social media, you post a bad tip and it is getting thrown around facebook and twitter about a minute after the race. 😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the galah Posted August 3, 2023 Author Share Posted August 3, 2023 (edited) He might have to start driving them himself. His anchor in tonights quaddie, Le major(ben butcher) waited until the lights were almost out before making his run,flying home for 3rd. Edited August 3, 2023 by the galah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodie Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 2 hours ago, the galah said: He might have to start driving them himself. His anchor in tonights quaddie, Le major(ben butcher) waited until the lights were almost out before making his run,flying home for 3rd. Personally dont see him as being much of an asset in the cart Galah! fair weight to be pulling surely? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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