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By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Last week, I wrote about the joy of having a “wolfpack” at the National Horseplayers Championship. A group of friends you see once a year, swap stories with, and share the roller coaster of trying to beat 700 of the best horseplayers in the world. This year, our wolfpack became an “Entourage” when Dylan Donnelly achieved fame and fortune by winning the whole thing in what everyone agrees was the most dramatic finish in NHC history. I wasn't part of the final table. Not even close. Instead of taking you through my own sob story, I thought I'd do something more interesting: tell you what it was like to sit next to the champ during the final table. Because for a few unforgettable hours inside that ballroom, the rest of us stopped worrying about our own picks and became something else entirely: friends, advisors, snack runners, amateur mathematicians and a very loud cheering section. Dylan's path to NHC glory didn't exactly start with fireworks. But, as they often do, things started to click for Dylan on day two. He began finding horses–longshots and short prices–and steadily climbing the standings. Both he and our tablemate Rich Nilsen made the cut, and by the end of day three, Dylan was sitting in fourth place. For those unfamiliar with the format, the final table contestants carry their bankroll totals with them and then play the exact same seven mandatory races. Thanks to the innovative “Silver Sunday” contest the NHC launched a few years ago, the ballroom remains packed because eliminated players–including myself–are playing the same races in a separate contest for $100,000, with $25,000 to the winner. A Roller Coaster of Emotions As we waited for the first final-table race, Dylan sat quietly at Table 147–our home away from home since the First Chance/Last Chance qualifier on Thursday. In front of him were printed past performances, meticulously marked up the night before with speed figures by his wife Meghan, who also provided both emotional and physical sustenance. At one point she pulled an energy bar out of her purse, which Dylan promptly devoured. AirPods in. Hat turned backwards. Perrier in hand. Seven races from history. I marveled at his calm and personable demeanor. Dozens of people stopped by to wish him luck. He's simultaneously one of the most-feared and most-liked competitors on the tour. As tablemates, the rest of us simply tried not to disturb the delicate equilibrium he had created between races. If Dylan was relaxed, we joked and verbally sparred like always. If he went silent and stared at the screen, everyone around him instinctively did the same. At one point I desperately wanted to ask what he was listening to in those AirPods, but I couldn't quite find the right moment. Success came early with a winner in the first race and a move into third on a historically tight leaderboard. A few more races passed without success, but no one was pulling away. With three races to go, Dylan was in fourth, only $20 behind the leader. That's when the mood at the table got tense. Dylan selected Carentan in Gulfstream's 10th. The horse worked out what looked like a dream trip along the rail and seemed ready to burst through at the top of the lane. Instead–like so many horses that get that trip over the Tapeta–the punch never came and Carentan finished out of the money. For just a moment, I thought I saw Dylan crack. A couple of expletives. An irritated look as he shuffled through his printed PPs while tournament emcee Brian Skirka announced leaderboard changes that were definitely not in Dylan's financial interest. For a fleeting second, I considered sharing the philosophical outlook from my preview column–that we should all just be happy to be here together. But it didn't seem like the right time. So before the penultimate race, I resorted to the traditional horseplayer conversation starter. “Who do you like in Oaklawn's 10th?” He shared his pick–the #9–and I mentioned I had landed on the same horse in the Silver Sunday tournament. He stared at me for a moment. “Good God… I should change my pick!” Then came the signature Dylan Donnelly smile. The irritation was gone. He was back–and despite playing for $825,000, he wasn't about to pass up the chance to jab me about my weekend of bad selections. That's what friends are for. The nine finished out of the money–carrying Dylan's hopes, and apparently the curse of my handicapping, with him. That left Dylan in fourth heading into the final race, the fifth at Santa Anita, with a gap of $29.91 between him and the leader. Dylan knew exactly what he needed: a horse whose win and place payoff would exceed that. Roughly 10-1. But the pari-mutuel gods weren't making things easy. Late odds fluctuations meant that even if he picked the right horse, the price might not hold. The NHC Goes Right Down To The Wire Frank Mustari, serving as Dylan's unofficial consigliere for the final minutes, explained the situation. “The favorite is probably going to the lead and win,” Frank said. “But that does him no good in the standings. So it's the two or the four. The question is which one–and whether the price holds.” Dylan ultimately landed on his preferred horse, #4 Crazy Cavalier. But there were still two problems. First, if one of the players ahead of him picked the same horse, Dylan would be blocked. Second… well, that part would become clear shortly. The gates opened. Soon after, the players' selections were posted. None of the competitors ahead of Dylan had selected Crazy Cavalier. He was live. As the race unfolded, Crazy Cavalier settled well off the pace down the backstretch. We kept glancing at the odds board. Still 10-1. No late CAW-driven odds changes. Around the far turn the horse began to move, and by the top of the stretch he swung wide–and suddenly our entire group was losing our minds. Crazy Cavalier ground down the leaders and just held off None Above the Law (video). We exploded. For about two seconds.I sprinted over to Dylan, searching for something remarkable to say. “Incredible (expletive) pick,” was as poetic as I could get. He looked me directly in the eyes. “I don't know if it's enough.” And that's when the room realized something. Frank Polk, sitting in second place, had selected the runner-up–and it was also a price. Suddenly the celebration stopped. Brent Schraff did some quick math in his head. “Oh my God,” he said. “He's going to lose.” Across the ballroom, announcer Brian Skirka summed it up perfectly: “It's a math equation from here.” We all stared at the television screen waiting for the payouts. I texted Sue Finley and Alan Carasso: “You're about to get one hell of a story. But it might be heartbreaking.” Finally, the payouts flashed onto the screen. For a moment nobody moved as everyone tried to do the math in their heads. Then the leaderboard updated. Dylan Donnelly. First place. The margin of victory was a mere 84 cents. He raised his arms and the ballroom erupted. People swarmed around him, but parted a moment later as Meghan stepped in and kissed him. “I'm so proud of him,” she told me later. “He works so hard and deserves this.” Most years we show up in Las Vegas chasing the same dream: Trying to be the one who solves the puzzle, finds the right horses, and survives the chaos of three long days of handicapping. Most years, it doesn't happen. But every once in a while, one of your own gets there. And when that happens, for a few unforgettable hours inside that ballroom, the wolfpack becomes an entourage. I'm still the coldest handicapper in America, but I'm leaving Las Vegas feeling like a champion. If that's how I'm feeling, I can only imagine how Dylan Donnelly is feeling. The post A NHC Nailbiter–The ‘Wolfpack’ Becomes an Entourage appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article -
I know you and your buddies at Entain wish price elasticity wasn't a thing but it is. Remember from Econ 101 as the price of having a punt increases demand decreases. Just the way it is. You gotta work out a different and better way of funding than ludicrous takeout rates. -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Dollars & Sense with Frank Angst takes a look at some ideas out there on how artificial intelligence can benefit the racing and breeding industry.View the full article -
By Wandering Eyes · Posted
Hugo Palmer has been appointed as the new president of the National Trainers Federation (NTF), succeeding Nick Alexander, whose two-year term concluded at the Federation's Annual General Meeting in London on Monday. “I am honoured and delighted to take on this important role at a time when our industry continues to face a period of significant change and am encouraged by the discussions today on a positive way forward for the sport,” said Palmer. It was also confirmed that Rebecca Menzies and Harry Eustace will serve as the NTF's next two presidents, with the latter joining the presidential triumvirate which leads its governing body. Paul Johnson, chief executive of the NTF, said, “On behalf of the NTF team and the Federation's members, I would like to congratulate Hugo on his appointment and thank Nick for his leadership, hard work and commitment over the past two years.” The AGM, which was attended by more than 60 trainers and 10 senior leaders from across British racing, was followed by a panel discussion on the future direction of British racing and how the sport can continue to strengthen its appeal to racegoers and audiences. The discussion was chaired by broadcaster Nick Luck, with trainers in attendance having the opportunity to pose questions to a panel that, along with Johnson, featured Fliss Barnard, chief executive of Ascot Racecourse; Seb Butterworth, strategic racing director for Flutter UK & Ireland; Brant Dunshea, chief executive of the British Horseracing Authority (BHA); Dido Harding, senior steward of The Jockey Club; and Nick Mills, chief executive of Racing Media Group. During the session, Dunshea outlined his key priorities for the sport as he said, “It is no secret that the sport has experienced a challenging period, but I believe there is much to be positive about. The past year has seen a growth in racecourse attendances, new initiatives to ensure more horses are raced and retained on our shores and continued improvements in horse and human welfare. “I am in no doubt that everyone in racing shares the same commitment to do what is in the best interest of the sport albeit there will be different perspectives.” He continued, “We are already seeing the benefits of the industry strategy agreed across the sport. We've just launched the second year of the national marketing campaign funded by the Levy Board, we've got the largest piece of consumer insight from Project Beacon, prize-money is rising. And as we showed last year with the campaign against the Government's proposed tax rises on betting, when the sport comes together as one it can be hugely effective.” “If we continue to demonstrate that unity of purpose then I'm confident we can tackle issues like the rise of black market betting, the declining foal crop and the long-term funding of the sport.” Johnson also discussed the NTF's developing strategy around the fixture list and race programme, highlighting a long-term approach aimed at strengthening the sport's competitive structure and maintaining strong interest among racing audiences. He said, “The strong attendance at today's AGM, from both trainers and senior figures across the sport, reflects the shared determination across racing to tackle the challenges we face and build a positive future for the sport. “Bringing together leaders from across the industry for this discussion was hugely valuable as British racing continues to evolve while protecting the qualities that make it such a distinctive and successful sport.” The post Hugo Palmer Appointed as New President of the National Trainers Federation appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article -
The exclusion of Betfair has probably killed off many large, serious punters, they offered a different form of betting that should have been kept on, I think I can still access my Betfair account, last time I tried I could but there was nothing you could wager on, there are some noveltys you can still bet on.
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