Why is it too soon to tell? There is data out there from December 2019.
What we do know is that 50% of our hospital beds are empty! What we do know is that pre-Covid-19 a large proportion of the un-occupied beds were booked for a variety of reasons that deferment will lessen the quality of life and may end in death.
I would have managed each region on a regional basis not a decree for the whole nation. Why should essential workers such as surgeons, doctors and nurses be sitting at home in lockdown while the police are out stopping people from being on the beach?
I would have triaged surgery on the list (there is a huge backlog) and made sure that it kept happening based on my hospitals capacity. With most surgeries nowadays you are out of hospital and home very quickly. If critical Covid-19 cases incoming started increasing then I'd review my capacity.
Our thinking is being coloured by the USA mess. New York City has one of the highest population densities in the world. They have 70,000 homeless people and 4,000 people who live on the street each night. Primary care in the USA has been stuffed for decades. Fortunately we have a great primary care system - which we closed down for Covid-19!!!!