Chief Stipe

Hi Harness Folk I'll sort this Topic Thread out tomorrow and shift the Covid posts to the Covid forum Cheer The Chief aka "Nutcase." PS: On any other forum a couple of people would have been banned today. But BOAY doesn't work like that. ?

LOL. Lockdown really got to you eh Mardigras or you just missing your alter ego Thomaas? Never seen you this abusive, trolling or so far off the mark in your analysis.

You're out of line there Mardigras. Not your place to say who stays or goes.

As I said the Swedish Government hasn't borrowed money for cash handouts to business. They have used various tools at their disposal to make it easier for businesses to stay in business. The assistance is very targeted and much of it has not been spent or drawn down yet. For example the Swedish Government is acting as a Guarantor for LOANS provided by banks to assist private enterprises. Hardly untargeted non refundable cash handouts. They've put in place a scheme to pay for employers sick leave obligations for a limited time. Again targeted specific payments. Nor double winter warmer payments because presumably Covid-19 makes the winter twice as cold.

Where did you get that figure from? Sweden already pre-Covid-19 had a much higher unemployment rate than NZ.

I didn't say that. Now who is lying and or deluded. I said Sweden wasn't borrowing large amounts of money to handout to their citizens. Answer that one who are you into your 2nd bottle of red?

Yep particularly the way it has been managed. Not only a waste of time but after being implemented lots of lost opportunities. For example from left field. Why did new road construction need to stop? Barely any vehicles on the road. Why couldn't Auckland Airport have fixed their stuffed runway? It is apparent that the bottle neck in our hospitals is ICU beds even without Covid19. Have we used the lockdown to gear up more ICU capacity?

Typical Mardigras response. Why don't you outline for us the differences between the Swedish and NZ Government responses? The tools Sweden have used are quite different.

Why wouldn't it be? Even Adern and Bloomfield say "elimination isn't Zero." The global experience is that many who get it have no symptoms or only mild symptoms. Why is it that we have been through over two 14 day cycles and we are still getting cases albeit low numbers?

I guess that about sums it up for you Mardigras. Unlike some of us you don't give a shit. I guess that's how the Racing Industry got into the mess it is in. None of us spoke loud enough. As for moaning that criticism is only valid if it isn't associated with the suggestion of alternative action. For example you said you don't give a shit how much or what type of Covid-19 testing is undertaken. Well I consider the lack of a wider testing programme a significant gap in this Govenrments Covid-19 management programme. I've actually talked to health professionals and they agree. It is simply astounding that Medsafe NZ has banned the importation of POC Antibody tests until 22 April 2021!!! Enjoy your red wine but make sure you follow Nanny Aderns rules on who you can drink it with.

LOL they tried to do that during Lockdown but were illegally turned back!! Grandpa and Grandma might not have travelled if they were vulnerable due to pre-existing conditions. But they tend to go on overseas cruises anyway rather than bungy jumping in Taupo! I bet my last dollar that there have been more than 1,489 cases of Covid-19 in the community. But we don't test for that.

Speculation based on the "fear factor." What if it had "exploded"?

Wrong Basil. There are articles and video clips on line where Adern refers to Wigram and an 80,000 death toll and she used that as justification for the lockdown. I guess Wigram and Motu - "have revised their modelling in the light of more accurate empircal data." Cough cough -

The Domestic Tourism market is bigger than the International market. The Domestic Tourism market was locked down. $18b of the total $29b is Domestic Tourism i.e. New Zealanders travelling in NZ. The next biggest source of tourism income is Australia. Add their $3b and the total is $21b leaving $8b from the rest internationally. So at worst assuming overseas countries wouldn't have let their citizens travel we would be down $11b. Our GDP for the year end March 2020 is $310b. An impact but not as large as you are making out Mardigras. Subjective at best. You'd find that market prices would adjust to compensate for reduced demand if indeed that demand declined. New Zealand's largest export earning sector is still Primary Production i.e. produce created by our farmers and horticulturalists. Perhaps some people might thank that sector now instead of kicking the shyte out of them. The world still needs to be fed during lockdown. Food supplies were globally declared "essential items." So did the lockdown affect the Primary Sector? Not for unprocessed non value added products. However locking down businesses that added value did have an economic impact. Did you read the article about the manufacturer that makes products out of merino wool? Because of the lockdown they had to send the raw merino wool to China to be processed!! You are cherry picking here Mardigras. Sure Sweden's economy has taken a hit but no where near as bad as Finland or Norway. What's more they haven't borrowed huge amounts of money to hand out to their citizens. They still have that ace largely up their sleeve. Their health system (comparable to ours?) hasn't been over whelmed. Their hospital occupancy rate is running at 80%. NZ's has dropped to 50%!!! If what the epidemiologists and scientists are universally saying is correct then this virus is here to stay. A vaccine could be up to 18 months away if indeed an effective one can be developed. Then Sweden have taken a hit early and kept something in reserve. What have we done? Mortgaged the country, dropped hospital occupancy to 50%, put businesses under and given cash handouts to all and sundry. Now the Government is trying to pick winners in the economy! That's how we have used this grace period of lockdown BEFORE the prime flu and covid-19 season starts. Has the Government invested in more ICU beds? Nup. I could go on and on.....

I understood the logic with your horse selection system. By comparison Thomaas's was illogical and irrational. However I don't understand at all your logic around the "inevitable decline in economic activity."

Yep especially if your internet connection isn't super fast. Most telcos only give you 40Gb before they screw your bandwidth down on a mobile. 40Gb goes fast once you've updated your apps, read the news a few times during the day let alone stream the TAB'S HD trackside on your phone.

It is NOT fact. Check this out: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/05/trumps-flawed-china-travel-conspiracy/ You can go further and check the data this article uses. It is readily available online and or through most flight tracking apps. Aside from the facts about flights out of Wuhan you also need to consider that even if they did continue eevidence shows that the virus was already circulating in Europe. Also Italy didn't close it's borders until 31 January a full week after China imposed restrictions on Wuhan on 23 January. I don't oppose the criticism of a country what I do oppose is criticism that is not based on data, facts and logic. If it isn't based on those things then it is racism or xenophobia. Trump poking the Panda into a corner to suit his own ends isn't going to help the world.

NZ according to Wordometer has undertaken 168,000 Covid-19 tests. These are PCR nasal swab tests. They only test for active cases. There has been ZERO Antibody tests done in NZ. These tests are done on blood samples and test if you have HAD Covid-19 i.e. you don't have the active stage of the virus. On the 22nd April Medsafe NZ BANNED the importation of Antibody test kits.

Firstly I'm not a National supporter. I might be if they crept over the midline back towards the right. However in saying that I believe that they understand business better than the current mob. Actually I may as well declare completely where I stand politically since you are jumping to conclusions. I stood for National in the 1984 election. In 1987 I voted for Roger Douglas. The party most aligned to my current thinking is ACT. I'm currently not active in any political party. Now as for my "made up number of $60m" it has more empirical validity than the projected 80,000 deaths predicted by Wigram and Motu and used by Adern to justify her actions. The reality is the Lockdown decision and more importantly how it was implemented has cost the country billions now and in the future. Robertson's pre-Budget speech is scary in that they have indicated they will interfere in the markets and choose winners. Governments have been notoriously bad at that.

Yes I'm glad you agree. What a huge cost to the country.

This comment I really object to. Obviously you have bought into the Trump/Pompeo "blame our piss pore management on someone else" electioneering line. You blame the Chinese Government regarding their slowness in imposing an International travel lockdown but overlook the slackness displayed by Adern and co to quickly manage our border movements. China may have let flights out but other countries let them fly in. Research is showing now that deaths of people infected with Covid-19 occurred in Europe and even the USA well before anyone knew there was a Covid-19. Yet you are quick to blame the Chinese. Why not blame the Italians for telling us about Covid-19 or the French? The horse had bolted well before the Chinese knew about it. Which isn't surprising when a lot of infections are aysmptomatc, mild or similar to the flu. The last thing we need is China bashing. We poke the Panda at our peril.

The reality in NZ is that we have had 20 people die at a direct ecomomic cost of $3 BILLION each. God knows what the indirect cost will be. Sadly for those 20 they were in the exit lounge anyway. It is clear that this virus claims the most vulnerable I.e. those with pre-existing serious health conditions. This virus is NOT eradicated and the vulnerable unless protected will still die. All the lockdown has done is bought the vulnerable more time to die from what is already killing them. This time has been bought at a large expense which will create more vulnerable and cause more deaths than Covid-19. If I owned a motel or hotel business I wouldn't get Dr Bloomfield to manage it. In the best of times he can only manage 85% occupancy in his hospital beds when there is unsatisfied demand. During Covid-19 lockdown this % dropped to 50%. I don't call that good management.

Did they make the decisions based on the right data and data modelling? I don't think so. Do a Google Search on Wigram Capital Investments, Rodney Jones, Motu Nz and Dr John McDermott. Adern referred to their analysis frequently when justifying the lockdown. It was they who stated 80,000 deaths. Try googling Rodney Jones and George Soros.

LOL. ? That made me laugh out loud.

Yes and the Police Commissioner needs to be given a rap over the knuckles too. Who allowed him to write an Opinion piece for Stuff where he justified the illegal creation of road blocks by Iwi and their gang clans?