Doomed

Some expert on handicapping, black type etc might be able to help me out here. It is beyond my basic understanding. The despised Timaru Racing Club race today, the only club in the country with a few race-days and no feature meeting. Probably in a tight race with Reefton and Foxton as the clubs NZTR would love to see the back of. Timaru Cup, no status at all. Rating 99 top weight, 10 starters rated higher than 81. Capacity field of 14, ballot scratched. Queen Elizabeth at Auckland, group 3. Rating 95 top weight, 4 starters rated over 81. 9 acceptors, obviously no need for a ballot. Rich Hill mile, group 2. Rating 95 top weight, 5 starters rated over 81. 13 acceptors, again no need for a ballot. Does anyone understand how this works? I know the black type status was determined before these races were run, but do people think that on the basis of this year's running the Timaru Cup is likely to be promoted to Group 2 next year and the Queen Elizabeth and Rich Hill demoted to listed at best?

I don't follow this sort of thing at all, but does this mean they already have a bet on for Karaka night before they actually have people join the syndicate? Do the TAB let them bet on credit assuming they will have money in a few weeks to pay for it?

I did wonder why i kept getting those types of adverts.

Surprising, I thought just throw money at it and the industry would be all good. Perhaps the problems went deeper than that. Who would have thought. Not as bad as Trentham though, a couple of 6 horse fields every meeting there. They might have to increase all the stakes again and then I'm sure everything will come right.

I do find myself wondering how they can justify some of the stakes on offer. Most can hardly be self funding. I also wonder whether the unique harness approach whereby maidens race for higher stakes than winners of several races really does send out the right signal to participants.

It was always a stupid idea, although I see they have found 5 extra horses who don't actually met race conditions. Probably even more surprising is abandoning the 2yo race. I thought the whole idea of changing the racing season as so there would be truck loads of 2yos turning out in Dec.

Far too much like common sense, no place for that in NZ racing.

If the entire SI is considered one region for racing purposes, there surely the continual eschewing of Timaru and Oamaru makes even less sense. Their central location and good track conditions should surely make them crucial venues in the SI pattern?

I thought I would contribute a more positive post than my other one. It has occurred to me that the West Coast clubs could boost their stakes by over $58,000 per meeting just by running their last race at 6.45. That is probably only about an hour later than normal. Some pretty ugly meetings lately have been getting $25,000 stakes just for running their last race after 6.30. It seems strange that much more attractive meetings have to run for $18,500. Surely it would still be light on the Coast after 6.30?

I was going to resist the urge to get back on my hobby horse again as there are only 3 or 4 people actually interested in the subject, perhaps only 2, but there have been a couple of related comments recently so here goes. Can somebody explain to me why there are only 3 meetings in all of Canterbury for the month of December: all 3 of them low key meetings (except for the Timaru Cup race) and one of them on an AWT? So effectively only two meetings for normal horses. I said a month, but it's actually 3 meetings in just over six weeks since the conclusion of Cup Week. I am not sure if the rationale is because all of the horses are too tired after Cup Week or because they are trying to force Canterbury trainers to support Southland's two meetings for the month. I keep telling myself that surely it is a different group of horses that race in $65,000 races during Cup Week to the group that would be competitive in $18,500 races. Am I right in that assumption? As to the second possibility, does NZTR realise that the distance between Chch and Invercargill is 567ks, whereas the distance between Palmerston North and Auckland is 518ks. To Pukekohe, which is where Auckland racing actually takes place, is even shorter. Which brings me to the other perplexing point. During the month that Canty has 3 meetings the CD has 11 meetings. How can this be justified? It isn't as if the CD is over run with horses. Two $65,000 races with 6 starters at Trentham last week, more small fields this week. Even the Northern region has tiny fields, a six horse 3yo at Te Rapa this week. An embarrassment of a Waikato Cup, following on from an embarrassing Counties Cup. The open stayers race at Invercargill has a bigger field and more horses rated higher than 73 than Waikato has. The SI doesn't even get to run 3yo and 2yo races, whereas in the NI they are happy to run high staked age group races with tiny fields. Surely the CD could be told there are races coming up at Pukekohe if anyone wants a start? I also struggle with the actual programming when they finally do run a meeting in the SI. One maiden programmed at Invercargill this week on an 8 race card. They ran two maidens on each of the first two days of Cup Week! I do wonder whether we actually fully understand the concept of tiered racing in NZ. I can't think of a single example of innovative, or really just common sense programming, that has been implemented in the SI over recent years. I'm not a fan of these half arsed inventions of high staked races for horses trained at Tuatapere by trainers outside the top 100. Surely many trainers would rather they just got the basics right so they could place their horses sensibly without having to travel almost 600ks. I have always thought the Canty racing scene and the whole SI could provide a really good racing product for all concerned if it was only run properly. Sadly, I have given up hope of seeing any light at the end of that tunnel.

I often notice horses low down in the race order who get into the field and do well, especially in the SI where there are always balloted and eliminated horses. Faraglioni wouldn't have got a start on Saturday if this policy was in place, and Malt Time, no 14, would have only just snuck into the field. Will make races like the Wgtn Cup a bit less exciting with small fields and lower dividends. Might even discourage those low down in the weights from paying up.

Where do you actually get three sets of starting gates all of a sudden? Are there businesses that just have then sitting in stock waiting for someone to come in off the street wanting to buy 2 or 3?

I initially wondered why on earth George thought it relevant for him to comment on events in Sydney, then it occurred to me that perhaps he is indicating he plans to sell off Avondale and build a new state of the art track out in the countryside, and if that goes well then sell off Trentham and build a flash new track well north of Wgtn. Perhaps if both go well he might then sell off Riccarton and build a central SI track outside of Timaru. You read it here first.

Correct. Ruakaka is my other track. Wouldn't have had a bet there for over 20 years. I just find form hard to follow at those tracks. I know there are track specialists who love both tracks but I just can't get interested enough to bother. In Australia I virtually never bother at Moonee Valley.

It is one of two tracks in NZ that I wouldn't touch with a barge pole. Long time since my last bet there.

I must say, Ravioli has manged to stretch a fairly simplistic argument over 9 pages already, with no sign of it stopping any time soon. Surely there comes a time when you just have to say "what's the point" and let him drift off.

They probably thought the previous run was a fluke.

Value is a very interesting concept. I am very much a value punter and always have been. Interestingly, it is not a concept that some people understand. I once knew a very keen and very regular punter who believed that if you liked a horse you backed it, regardless of price. He would happily back a horse at $1.50 that I rated a $5 chance. Many punters in fact get extra confidence if a horse that should logically be paying $5 is only paying $1.50. A lot of punters are more likely to get scared off if a horse is paying too much.

As Curious mentioned Imperatriz has won three Group 1s over 1,400 and 1,600, plus a Group 2. So best not to consider her a 1,000m and 1,200m specialist.

Sets a dangerous precedent if they suddenly start using common sense.

Doesn't seem to have been any thought given to moving the meeting to the AWT, or even, perish the thought, Timaru. Both tracks only an hour away in either direction.

You are probably correct there. I recall thinking there were some strange anomalies. What I was probably thinking about was that it precluded southerners from racing at the March meeting at Trentham. Southern 3yos had quite a good record in the Levin Classic, but that may have been moved now anyhow. Love racing website is down so can't check that. It still means southerners can't race at Trentham in March and be eligible for their own race. Seems strange to create a race that potentially means horses have to miss a group race elsewhere so they can be eligible for a richer non group race. I do struggle to understand how that helps the racing pattern, but greater minds than mine have obviously thought it through.

Yes, but not under the original proposal. I am pretty sure they refined it when they realised it was poorly thought out. Still poorly thought out of course, but not as stupid as originally.

He also had ownership irregularities from memory and had some of his early wins taken off him. I forget the exact details.

I might even try the carrot exercise myself.