VC!

Newmarket google Betangel you can get a 2 week free trial Don’t sign up and within the month they will then offer you a 2 week free trial of betangel professional Betangel great tool for trading remember this Wednesday Big Bash starts with 50 million matched (25million)

I once collected on 2 winners I was at the Ayr races 1990 it was the last race of the day I had 50 pound a win on a 8-1 shot with one bookmaker and 50 pound a win on a different horse at 10-1 with another bookie they ran first and second we were in a hurry to make the next train back to Glasgow so I went and lined up straight away the horses made their way back into the birdcage and I was 2nd in line and got paid out.....made my way back to my family and girlfriend and said right let’s go I had only just said that when the siren went protest 2nd v 1st I then had to say hang on we can’t go just yet I backed the 2nd horse as well it’s worth 500 pound so we hung around 30 minutes later change of placings sent my girlfriend down to collect the 500 pounds These memories always live with you

The goal here is 2 winners to break even 3 winners $500 profit

*=my rating TeRapa R6 Lizzie L’amour *2-10/2-50 Ned’s $196W Back up Love Affair R7 Maygrove *11/23-00 NSWTab $22W R8 Southern Icon *16/27-00 $19W Awapuni R2 Soroc *3-90/5-00 $98W R5 Real Beach *6-00/$7-50 $66W NSW Tab Doomben R2 Tumultuous *7-80/9-50 $52W SBet R6 Havasay *8-90/11-00 $45W R8 Chess Style*3-20/4-50 power play $109W ....Granny Red Shoes *11-80/15-00 $33W Kembla these aren’t accurate ratings as I do the trials I have boosted both in the first R1 Vulpes *5-50/11-00 odds boos Lad $45W R1 Howra *4-60/9-36 price boost Ned’s $53W Flemington R3 Etymology *4-00/5-00 $98W R6 Five Kingdom *5-50/7-50 Bet Boost BE $66W Randwick R8 Roman Son *6-00/8-50 58W R8 The Getaway *31-00/61-00 $8W R9 Kool Vinnie *8-00/12-00 NSW T $41W Most of these bets would more than likely be placed on BF with 2/3 minutes before jump then what you couldn’t get set with you use one of the books if eventually one of your books is closed you have friends yes!!!! The last 3 weeks track conditions have done my head in Opening Balance 9,800 Closing Balance $8,791

Here is the 2 year old Brooklyn Hustle winning and coming from last at the Valley on the 1st December that I mentioned I don’t think the link worked

Speaking of Witherspoon I heard a joke a few years ago it goes like this You..........Did you hear about that actress who got stabbed the other day Reece...Reece....Reece....Reece Them.....Witherspoon????? You.........NO!!!! Not with a SPOON with a KNIFE you idiot!!!! Anywho the whole value has been an awful lot for my cognitive side to take in the more information I tried to digest the more confused I became So over the past few days I have broke it down bit by bit A new structure and the processes are in place I have had to reprogram the way I think the biases that have been my way of punting assessing races have been put to one side I am aware of them but for myself to find true value I need to look at things differently A jockey is to steer the horse the trainer is to train the horse when assessing a horse has the trainer changed NO so why rate it higher the jockey more than likely rode it last start is he going to ride it better no Do we need to rate a horse lower because of it’s barrier NO we are likely to find value because of the barrier this would have the reverse affect if we were wanting to Lay the horse we would rather that horse have a good barrier as it would be shorter in the market and we have already rated it’s chances regardless of barrier Do we have the latest stats on presumed front runners tracks eg the last 100 races run at the track I seen a very good 2yr old come from near last at the 300 at the Valley the other day are we valuing front runners incorrectly at these tracks not knowing the stats Are we driven my media gossip when assessing a price and so on and so on So I am a work in progress My imaginary bank stands at 9,800 and I have taken on board the advice given so I will be betting to win 5% of my bank Deep breathe wax on wax off inhale exhale

No need the walking talking Bear is on here

The most notable thing for me was the emergence of BGP at Karaka Millions in January the energy and atmosphere the group brought to the track......NZ racing is dead this group is unique they were a breath of fresh air NZ racing now need to capitalise on this unique situation and somehow introduce other teams and create a league similar to the Big Bash 10 teams of 5 have the media involved call it the sport of kings league where these punting teams go head to head at the tracks if each team spent 50k they would have a turnover of 500k Racing needs atmosphere they need to attract young people to the sport they need these people to understand by forming a syndicate you can afford to become an owner once you do this you will have a domino effect they will open a TAB account Racing in NZ can’t create a Everest a Melbourne Cup Winx atmosphere they need to create their own unique way which they can showcase racing to the NZ public Its time to take on BGP grow what they have created and showcase it to the NZ public create a racing league have them at the track give it that T20 atmosphere show them racing is the coolest sport to be involved in the whole country

1 Bet at Wyong Race1 Witherspoon rated her even money We will back her at Ned’s @ $2-50 1 unit Neds have a tool box we will use the option Back Up and nominate Enjoy Elsie as our back up should Witherspoon run 2nd to Enjoy Elsie we get our 1 unit stake back Balance 98 Units

We have increased our bank to 100 Units I will stick with I unit investments so we will have a 10,000 bank betting $100 1 unit Our first bet will be on Champagne Boom to win the Magic Millions at $22 with SB January 12th this is a boosted price with power play you would get on with a $100 but these power plays boost odds etc are generally designed for recreational punters Champagne Boom is in at Wyong Wednesday probably not suited at Wyong but a stepping stone towards the Gold Coast first time around a bend going from left handed to right handed the fact he is running at Wyong is a good lead he will be heading to the GC will he start at $22 MM day No the risk we are taking he might not start at all Balance 99 units

Thanks for the feedback One needs to make mistakes to learn I don’t plan to take 30-1 shots I plan to now and again back something at 30-1 that I have rated much lower if your unit stake was 1k it would be so so hard to get set for a 30k return you would need all books open and taking a little bit everywhere I wish I could do Hong Kong form betting into a 4 million win pool would be a dream I tried it but found it too tough a lot of these big punters work in teams they have analysts doing form for them in NZ Australia Europe I need to see the fields and do the ratings without the bookmakers prices next to them so I won’t be influenced in anyway I intend to be selective and have way fewer bets Hopefully I learn along the way

I will use this thread to have a crack at value I will have an imaginary 50 units and will bet level stakes 1 unit per bet regardless of price even money 30-1 1 unit will be the bet my ideal price would be overs in the 8-15 range I will do this until the end of February or once my 50 units vanish (more likely) NZ Sydney Melbourne are the locations I study I also do the trials as they are broadcast live over here I actually record trials encore as they are put into a 30 minute package I have reassessed my line of thought for selections 1) Ability 2) Track Conditions 3) Course/Distance 4) Speed Map/ Track That’s it Saturday will be my main day with the odd selection Wednesday Thursday Friday Iv’e put it up here as there is nowhere to hide I won’t be bullshiting myself more likely embarrass myself but at least I will put the effort in to try and avoid that lol ?

Masterclass ?

My first graph was based on what Don Scott would say form form form!!! The one above is done in much quicker time just based on my knowledge the thing I haven't done.... is back value Slow Burn her last start was more like a trial untested down the straight, she maps well to get a decent run midfield on a race that looks to have a fair amount of speed her fresh up record is 4/2 I'm putting her in the fresh up category as her last start was like a trial so her fresh up record should read 3/2 she is unbeaten at the distance Albumin trialled nicely at Rosehill on the 19th/11th Jay Ford rode him in the trial and has maintained the ride Saturday he has had 6 starts at Rosehill for 4 wins...…...6 starts at the distance for 4 wins a second and a third...……...track and distance 3 from 3 has won 5 from 14 on a good track with 3 minor placings maps beautifully from gate 1 with a slow beginner in gate 2 and the likely early leader drawn gate 3 should be 3 or 4 back the fence Single Bullet change of tactics last start ridden quite and finished hard to score has raced against tougher opposition on many occasions has been freshened and if they ride him similar to last start with a bit of pace in this race he could finish over the top of them These are the 3 horses that are over the odds so they represent value under my assessment Sticking to level stakes so 1 unit on each Albumin $7 back now as I expect to shorten Slow Burn $10s available Single Bullet $8s available 3 Selections from first post 1 unit on each Albumin Ever So Natural Niccolance Ever So Natural and Niccolance I actually don't like but the ratings I set have suggested they are over the odds Finally regardless of the result whether they win or lose doesn't prove anything as its only one race I need to do all Sydney and Melbourne ratings on just about all races to see how I go trial this for 3 months although I should have a fair idea after 1 month Hope you all have a profitable day punting wise make plenty!!!! its a tough game

OK here goes excitement plus, the princess is excited she wants a trip to the big apple. I was going to say she's had a trip to the big banana (Coffs Harbour) but I won't otherwise I'll start sounding like the tank! Rosehill Race 7 08/12/2019 1) Albumin $4-54 TAB PRICE $7-00 2) Coruscate $10 $5-00 3) Tango Rain $20 $12-00 4) Bon Amis $13-33 $4-80 5) Redouble $31-25 $9-00 6) Single Bullet $16-66 $8-00 7) Viceroy $57-14 $31-00 8 Jorda $15-38 $12-00 9) Slow Burn $12-50 $9-00 10) Niccobelle $50 $34-00 11) Ever So Natural $13-33 $26-00 12) Junglized $12-50 $15-00 13) Niccolance $10-52 $$17-00 14) Isorich $100 $81-00 15) Sedition $66.66 $26-00 16) Destiny's Reward $200 $126-00 So that's my market I applied for the very first time principals 1) Track 2) Distance 3) Last start/Fresh Up/2nd Up record 4) Jockey 5) Trainer 6) Track Conditions 7) How they will track in the race SPEED MAP 8 Barrier 9) Strike Rate how many starts 10) Age and how many starts into prep The prices above are a reflection of the principals I will also do another set of ratings based on my knowledge of how I read the race I would have have on top 1) slow Burn 2) Albumin 3) Single Bullet 4) Bon Amis 5) Coruscate So that's it when I attempt something there are no half measures I'm either going to be successful or fail at this …………..my money is on fail but hey it's going to be fun trying

How did you come up with the name mardigras come on mate racing is the sport of kings not queens sorry I couldn’t help myself Hesi asked me to have a crack at this in his original post there’s not enough exposed form for myself to rate this race it’s a race I couldn’t get involved in either Awesome you put this thread up though So I guess you will be laying Total Excess I might have a crack at an Australian race tomorrow when I get a bit of time I will post it on here if that’s Ok with you

Is his favourite sport Basketball

One for the Sports punters My two sports are NRL and Golf I Bet 8 months of the year March through October I set myself a goal to make 20 Units profit over the 8 months A unit can be whatever denomination you want it to be I target 5 bets over the weekend target price is $1-90 to obtain $1-90 I will take the line in the NRL or H2H in the golf you have to be quick with the golf as these are targeted as soon as the markets are up With the golf you look for a golfer who generally plays that course well who is up against someone who doesn’t play that course as well they also need to be in reasonable form NRL well you generally get a feel about games certain players out certain come back when really large lines are offered check the weather forecast The goal is to get 3 out of your 5 selections correct this means you need to have a strike rate of60% Getting 3 right will return you 1-90 1-90 1-90 which equates to 5.7 units level stake you have invested 5 units and made 0.7 of a unit profit of course some weeks you might get less some more the goal is to get minimum 3 out of 5 I done this this year just gone my goal was to get 20 units profit I came up short 18.7 units profit I obtained ....my Unit stake was 1k so Imade 18.7k profit next year I will increase to 2 Uints If you read sport well and think you can have a strike rate of around 60% it could be worth having a crack of course you could start with a stake much lower

So once you get a taste for it you think I can do this again As for Horse Racing I have no problem picking winners making consistent profit is where I’m lacking I heard the saying value value over and over again but couldn’t get my head around it So I look forward with high anticipation and optimism have I got it in me I thank Rocket Rod and Bazza for their input for what they have put forward It will be exciting the biggest challenge for me I feel is rating a horse I want to back in a race will I cheat and rate it slightly higher so it represents value?

Hesinator I used to back NZ Greyhounds professionally I recorded every race I knew which dog would jump left or right or maintain a straight line from the boxes I knew each dogs speed out of the boxes key was to know which dogs were near the lead which ones were likely to be checked Because I could make a case for 3 or 4 dogs I decided to do first 4s I would pick my main 4 chances box them for $2 cost $48 then take eg 1,2,3,4 1,234 1234, 5,6,78 =$96 then 1,2,3,4 1,2,3,4 5,6,7,8 1,2,3,4 =$96 Every race cost me $240 the only races I left out were when I knew the hot favourite was most likely to win Bet 365 at the time had a flaw in their system they paid the highest exotic on the NSW or VIC Tab the discrepancy used to be enormous and here was where I made my profit my Bet 365 account was closed after 3 months I was averaging over 1k profit a day I took 70k of them in just over 2 months After 6 weeks of having my account open I had betting restrictions placed on my account my max bet for first 4s was reduced to 0.40 that didn’t stop me All I had to do was change 1 number It just took me longer as I had to put it on 3 times instead of having 1 unit I had 1.20 units 18 months later I opened an account in my Wife’s name and did it all again I only managed 50kprofit in a tick over 3 months until her account was closed Can I do this at the TAB answer no the pools are too small!!!

You go well Alan I’m not calling you a loser BTW Like Basil said if you have the right focus and approach anyone can win you fit into that category just need to get out of your comfort zone that was more the meaning of my post you learn make mistakes and keep learning

A quote from a book I read Rich Dad poor Dad ”Winners aren’t afraid to lose losers are afraid to win”

The purists traditionalists dinosaurs they hate this form of the game (Poor Zak lol) But crowd figures TV ratings the young people they love this form of the game That young Uni kid who took that one handed catch just over the fence and won 50k made headlines over here in Aus imagine how many young kids are going to be wanting to go to the T20s in NZ now The Heat are probably the team most kiwis would be following with DV as their coach and Baz as Captain Yip the bash brothers sure can turn it on If anyone gets a chance to watch the Big Bash open the Betfair App and watch how much is matched ball by ball There is approximately a 15 second delay watching the game live in your lounge room so I sit there with my BF app open and tell my mates there’s going to be a wicket next ball or this ones going over the fence and they say how do you know that and I say I swear I think I’m getting ESP Mardi explained it perfectly people actually fly to the games around Australia just to get that edge for betting purposes they have a 15 second advantage over people punting it from their lounge rooms and with such a massive volume back or lay they make some serious $$$ as Mardi said no skill I guess they could argue and say who needs skill 2 years ago approx 40 million was matched per game Last year 50 million Could they hit 60 million this year ??????

The Big Bash (cricket) is about to start and is one of the easier trading opportunities around the T20 match goes for about 3.5 hours nearly every match 50 million is matched that equates to 200,000 per ball or 1.2 million per over you can back a team at 7 and the very next ball lay them at 5 I think it is worth doing video I watch it once at normal speed then once at +6 At +6 you notice more how less often horses are making up ground probably a good tool for someone starting out to learn how tracks play

Couple more Qs Do you study Video and Trials The other which I think you answered do you trade