Sandpiper

I like SW&P, the conditions are straightforward and the race type serves as a stepping stone up to or back down from WFA. What I really do not like is changing the conditions of races which have a history to them.

By looking at this example and the one from previous page in this thread, and comparing those to nzracing.co.nz stats, it seems to be a fault in the layout where the 'slow' stats are being displayed in the 'dead' stats place. From a little experience in the field imo this is a trivial fix. Whether it should have been captured earlier is another question.

Thanks for the appeal to probability, and so eloquently put to boot. The sad thing is, these are valuable questions. Does the expected return$ to connections (e.g. Probabeel was $4.00 SP = 25% X $1m = $250k) have an impact on the success of first time application of headgear? What is the variance within that for individual trainers? But there is no sane debate to be had here: I know a troll when I see one, this post is purely to encourage others to give up the thread.

If they don't have any footage of the jiggers in use the whole thing could end being a bit of a .. bust

Has a runner in Aus ever been DQ'd or demoted owing to failure to notify? If not, whats the point? Fines dont change dividends. So stop 'protecting punters'!

They seem to be just waiting until the day has started to pan out before going in hard, not really martingaling. The amount chosen for the last punt on Madison County was a touch worrying (77k to make it a breakeven day if it lost). Should be staking based on overlay and bank, not trying to leave it tidy admin-wise.

So after failing to deliver decent results pages theyve now rushed out new faulty layouts. Eeek Why cant I place a pick 6 bet on ellerslie yet? How dumb is that. Am I missing something? Seems I have to remember to keep checking back later until the pick 6 link stops being yesterdays pick 6 results. No exactly encouraging turnover.

As a LORD of KNOWLEDGENESS on antipodean social media related to persons of EQUINISM I can categorically state that the troublesome tweeter was not even guilty under Aussie rules let alone NZ. The only unfortunate thing was she hit delete on her one tweet instead of the whole twitterland. Now Im off to stick my fingers in my ears and point my nose upwind and that is a FACT.

yeah its best not to act on this one and if it happens a lot consider using anonymous social media less frequently

I don't really get the argument that courtsiding is immoral. High frequency trading is all about setting up shop close to exchange servers so whats the difference. If it detracts from the sporting spectacle somehow that would be an issue. And flying a DIY drone over a racecourse isn't just courtsiding it's also, well, pretty dumb. Look forward to when we can watch the police drone pop up from its hidey hole and chase the other drones around town. (And bet on the winner).

The more competitive the race the more the gate can matter. These are not competitive races and the best horses have won at least 3 of the first 4 races imo. Mardigras, the concept that the gate is factored into the SP thru wisdom of the crowds is only as valid as the idea that SPs are correct and cant be beaten. If you know more than the crowd you can profit.

There's a $28k jackpot going in to Trentham on Saturday. Looking at the fields, I'm keen to go wide (~10000 lines). If anyone wants to club together @ $300 each let me know. If there's enough interest by 1pm Friday (5+) I'll sort out some proper rules and set up a Whatsapp group.

Well that didn't last long. Reopened at $11 FF. Do your own work, TAB! Plum draw helped of course...

So after Gift Of Power railed so hard she turned left at the crossing, Melody Belle got stuck in roadworks waiting for the lollipop to turn, Bostonian politely repeats his request for a spell and Hiflyer threatens but needs the run, we have an upset on the cards.....

Funny stuff from the west coast. "Prior to adjudication, the stewards noted a prevailing view of 'it's Hokitika race 1, fuck it' ... " Should be 8 late scratchings.

For Saturday not today but anyway, Gorbachev is a decent bet imo @ $21 in the Wellington Cup. Hard to see this playing out without him figuring in the finish. Seems to have really come on as a 5yo and will improve up to 2 miles. Gets 3kg from Bizzwinkle from Stratford Cup and 4.5kg from Duplicity's Manawatu Cup run. He's 11/1 in my market.

The hamster of death started appearing today. I deleted cache and cookies (not something that should need doing for site performance) and it went away.

I believe the price moved when Rusof got a holiday. She will start $1.50 ... like you say, assuming all remains well.

Id ask that the minimum number of bets per week be low as am in the category of only having time to find a few value picks per week. No multiples or exotics also just to prevent higher variance.

Well done Weasel the clues were there in hindsight. Top job!

Winner will need to be able to travel well in behind a furious pace imo. Melody Belle has everything going for her except that draw which on a G3 at Ellerslie 1200 is a real shocker. Can she race wide / circle a railway field? Sure. This railway field though? Hmmmm. Nice things can happen for Gift of Power here or in the Telegraph. Trainer has said previously right handed is a query so I backed her for trentham and disappointed she starts here but good luck to them. Bostonian an obvious chance but well found in the market. Sleeping Beauty gets 3kg from Volpe Veloce from their last start and opened $121. From the 1 gate I can see pace out wider resulting in a nice passage and shes a quality albeit tricky mare only now learning to settle as a 6yo after 18 starts for 8 wins. Good 3 not expected to particularly suit however stranger things have happened and 3 figure odds hard to turn down.

Isuzu: I had Lizzie and Love Affair a touch longer and Supera significantly shorter (8s). Problem is, only Nicoletta brings tempo and she has proven likely to play silly buggers in the lead, so the race becomes a no bet. Supera would seem to have a decent group race or three in her in the near future. Wish I knew something more concrete of their plans for her beyond 'anything is a bonus'. You have to admire how they have won a $11k r72 and decided that will probably do it as far as handicaps are concerned. Waikato Cup: An easier race for the TAB to not fuck up there has never been. With the two top chances being similarly progressive, similarly suited for distance and near identically weighted from a run together only 2 weeks ago, and the class horse being a very open book at this stage of his career, the market was always likely to have this about right, which it does. I can't see any boogiemen hiding anywhere. Igrain starting here seems a touch profligate. The City of Auckland Cup is worth $100k more (twice as much), is only two weeks away and she would carry the minimum. It is interesting to see the value connections ascribe to winning their local cup.