holy ravioli

Strath Ayr...another reason not to...bother betting on NZ races.🙄

Nature Strip is already rated the best sprinter in the world...not potentially.

Per Incanto flying the flag...2 in the Newmarket...Lost @ still running....and Roch'n' Horse!🙃

Every year without fail we see the hype of horses who make promising debuts...these 2 Waller runners Fangirl and Espiona are perfect examples of being over rated .Heavy track ..all the same..they were thrashed by horses with superior form. As for Moroney's $100 shot at Flemington...where are my...marbles!

Don't know who is doing the comments between races in NZ...but the race just gone at Rosehill...the woman said Shelby 66 was by Tornado,and the male comments man said it beat potentially the worlds best sprinter in Nature Strip ...last week.🙄 Min wage ...I guess.

There is a thread on neo liberalism where you state...(amongst other things😉) ' did make the debating team three years in a row as third speaker. I had a reputation for quick wit, rapier style rebuttal and immolating my opponents.' So you were not Captain,but you will notice I put ?-as I couldn't recall your exact quote.

There you go...again!🤪

At least you are predictable Chief. Having a crack at posters whose position on matters is different to mine is not confined to you at all. You happen to be the most prolific poster and the one whose take' on alot of things often differs from mine. Imagine if everyone sang off the same songsheet everyday! I always try to play the 'ball',not the...'man'.Try it.

Are you interested in putting up 4 picks for those races Chief?...or are you afraid luck may not favour...you?😉

On the off chance that someone may try their....um....hand at selecting 4,the nominated races are the Derby @Ellerslie,R4@Flemington and R10 @Randwick. This should enable plenty of time for form analysis. Any late scratching, the next starter below becomes the selection-if the last horse is scr,then no.1.

Haha....the ex Capt of the Lincoln College debating team?..show's the depth of his skills...! Such fragile confidence you have in your self.😄

So when are you going to explain your 'measurable variables' theory? On Saturday you will see my 'luck' selection strategy...it is simple and transparent.

I have already posted a definition of luck that people recognise by a reputable source. You are spinning like a top...'measurable variables' was your term,now you have decided 'measurable probabilities' is more credible. You highlight your lack of understanding with your barrier/lotto analogy. Think about it! If there are 13 runners in a field and random barrier draws have been made for 11 of the runners and the only barriers left are say 2 and 12....the odds are now 1/2 or 50/50 not 1 in 13. Barrier draws are luck...period.

And you steadfastly offer no explanation of your 'measurable variables'! Don't you think barrier draws are down to ...'luck'?

As an exercise this Saturday I will select 3 races-1 in Sydney,1 in Melbourne and 1 in NZ. Using a very transparent' luck'formula I will select 4 horses in each race.Any cumulative dividends -F4,Tri,Q,10/10 EW will be totalled. If anyone is up for the challenge they can do the same using their own form analysis. If there is no one inclined to do that,I will substitute the selections of a known media racing scribe. I find the proposition of 'measurable variables' quite fascinating tbh. I think people can agree that 'luck' is a component in every race. How is a barrier draw decided for instance? Roll on...Saturday.

Not everyone. Btw curious to know whether barrier draws are decided on...'luck'...!😉

Usual deflection....didn't ask what it wasn't based on...you really are a...grasper Chief. Try this one Chief...if you were doing your assessments and you noticed a horse at its prior run was full of running, blocked for room in the strait then flew home when clear and was considered by some a certainty beaten,would you take that into consideration...or not?😉

Very,very puerile debating technique Chief.....unbelievable ..really.🛌

I see....the default retreat for the 'stumped'.....attack the messenger...onya..Chief!🙄

ahem...is this market based on 'measurable ,variables'?🛶

Try the other thread ...I have explained...awaiting your explanations ...now...you know about 'measurable variables'!🛶

You are an each way bettor eh Chief.... 'That said La Crique has the tactical speed at both ends of the race to hold a position from the 1 draw. '

Depends on the runner. One thing is evident though...the lowest % of winners occur between barriers 2 and 8!😀

2400m Ellerslie-Racingzone -%winners/barrier 8%-1 8%-2 6%-3 10%-4 6%-5 9%-6 7%-7 9%-8 5%-9 8%-10 12%-11 5%-12 11%-13

' Odds and prices are assessments of chance based on measurable variables (unless you use your methods).' 'I haven't mentioned any factors or variables. You've mentioned one - "luck" when it isn't a variable.' As you can have good luck...or bad luck...it is variable. ' Luck Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster https://www.merriam-webster.com › dictionary › luck luck: [noun] a force that brings good fortune or adversity. the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual.' Perhaps you may reveal these 'measurable variables' you base your assessments on. Don't want all your secrets...a couple of measurable variables will do.😃