Good that rod & curious started this thread all alone, they can feed each other’s ego for the next 12 months or so, Thomarse will pipe in with his thoughts, should be entertaining to say the least.
But rather than people trying to convince others that they are a maths genius, how about this. Most on here are not going to delve into racing stats as much as rod & curious, so help with ways the small sat punter can improve his chances of winning. No system is wrong, I worked with a guy once that bet on NZ gallops & harness. He took no notice of draws, track conditions, weights, drivers etc. Only rule was, horse must have won same time as previous year, one month either side. We thought he was mad, we wrote down each week his horses, he returned a profit each year, for the 3 years I worked with him.
So he had his system, stake was always same, $5ew on every runner, but he stuck to his plan. To this day, I still look back to how a horse was performing 12 months back.
So my advice to the small punter, stick to what you follow. If it’s league, know the time to bet after an intercept try against play, darts , horses what ever. All you have to do is gain a slight edge, and your winning.
Do agree with Barry, getting best odds is important, but also understand that many NZ punters will only be with tab, so their pretty limited.
MOST IMPORTANT, listen to others, but make your own decisions.