Yeah, in most cases that's spot on.
However, they don't have to dodge around unsuitable programming that can mean too long between races, or else races all on top of each other.
There are reasons other than stakemoney that lead to horses being sent over the ditch, a factor you have alluded to on more than one occasion.
In the case of P.T., I don't think that particular race was ever factored in, in the beginning. It would have taken a very strong-minded trainer indeed to have said, no, she's going to the paddock!