boyz invasion

[the galah]

This horse starts in race 2 today at palmerston north.

The handicapping system has him ranked the 2nd lowest of the 8 starters and consequently he gets to start off the front,even though a last start winner at kakoura.From his 108 starts he has won 11 times and had 19 second or thirds. He has won more money and more races than the other 5 horses that start from the same mark have combined.

Now he looks a good thing to win given his handicap.

But it just illustrates how harshly the three 1 win horses in that race are treated. They have to start from the same mark yet everyone who may watch the race realises they have no chance of beating him.

Edited November 21, 2023 by the galah

[the galah]

1 hour ago, the galah said:

This horse starts in race 2 today at palmerston north.

The handicapping system has him ranked the 2nd lowest of the 8 starters and consequently he gets to start off the front,even though a last start winner at kakoura.From his 108 starts he has won 11 times and had 19 second or thirds. He has won more money and more races than the other 5 horses that start from the same mark have combined.

Now he looks a good thing to win given his handicap.

But it just illustrates how harshly the three 1 win horses in that race are treated. They have to start from the same mark yet everyone who may watch the race realises they have no chance of beating him.

Wins by 3 lengths under a hold with the 1 win horses well beat.

I suppose $1.90 seemed money for jam.I'm surprised it paid so much given it looked such a good thing.

[Shad]

Fairly tidy old performer, I used to take him over the coast, and he liked racing there to, the system do seem unfair, maybe needs a few tweaks to make it more fair.

[the galah]

11 hours ago, Shad said:

Fairly tidy old performer, I used to take him over the coast, and he liked racing there to, the system do seem unfair, maybe needs a few tweaks to make it more fair.

yes hes been a very good to his connections and obviously been well looked after and very well placed.

So he won yesterday,but his low rating stays as is,it was a penalty free race if driven by a junior driver.,which he was. If he wins again tomorrow,he will only get a half penalty because of the junior driver thing.

So after tomorrow he could end up a 13 win,last 3 in a row,and still be rated less than the likes of one his rivals ,kiss my pixel who has has 1 win and 1 3rd from 9 starts.

In reality the 1 win horses should have had a 20m start to be any chance and even then they most likely would struggle. They could have programmed the race like that,but those who programme races simply don't seem factor that in. As a betting product,its just another race where they dish up a red hot favorite.

Races programmed are not factoring in money won recently and the emphasis put on junior driver concessions has cmade the system even more inequitable for many. i honestly don't understand why some horses are continued to be trained. They will never get away from running in races that they have no chance.

If the  systems goal is to race like against like then it is failing. 

Edited November 21, 2023 by the galah

[Brodie]

5 hours ago, the galah said:

yes hes been a very good to his connections and obviously been well looked after and very well placed.

So he won yesterday,but his low rating stays as is,it was a penalty free race if driven by a junior driver.,which he was. If he wins again tomorrow,he will only get a half penalty because of the junior driver thing.

So after tomorrow he could end up a 13 win,last 3 in a row,and still be rated less than the likes of one his rivals ,kiss my pixel who has has 1 win and 1 3rd from 9 starts.

In reality the 1 win horses should have had a 20m start to be any chance and even then they most likely would struggle. They could have programmed the race like that,but those who programme races simply don't seem factor that in. As a betting product,its just another race where they dish up a red hot favorite.

Races programmed are not factoring in money won recently and the emphasis put on junior driver concessions has cmade the system even more inequitable for many. i honestly don't understand why some horses are continued to be trained. They will never get away from running in races that they have no chance.

If the  systems goal is to race like against like then it is failing. 

Galah, not sure it is worth pointing out that the current handicapping system is totally unfair and needs amending again!

A couple of years or more ago they had a brainstorming meeting of HRNZ and owners and trainers that was going to be full of these great ideas!

What came out of this seems to be a messed up change of season date that we couldn’t understand.

They seriously do need to once again change things and to be fair it would not be too hard!

Just crazy that these horses that have won 10 races or so race one win horses!

Not sure why HRNZ don’t come out and announce something in the wind, but there doesn’t seem to be anything!

Its OK everything must be going well?

[Michael]

11 hours ago, the galah said:

yes hes been a very good to his connections and obviously been well looked after and very well placed.

So he won yesterday,but his low rating stays as is,it was a penalty free race if driven by a junior driver.,which he was. If he wins again tomorrow,he will only get a half penalty because of the junior driver thing.

So after tomorrow he could end up a 13 win,last 3 in a row,and still be rated less than the likes of one his rivals ,kiss my pixel who has has 1 win and 1 3rd from 9 starts.

In reality the 1 win horses should have had a 20m start to be any chance and even then they most likely would struggle. They could have programmed the race like that,but those who programme races simply don't seem factor that in. As a betting product,its just another race where they dish up a red hot favorite.

Races programmed are not factoring in money won recently and the emphasis put on junior driver concessions has cmade the system even more inequitable for many. i honestly don't understand why some horses are continued to be trained. They will never get away from running in races that they have no chance.

If the  systems goal is to race like against like then it is failing. 

In a previous thread started by The Galah about the Handicapping system I didn't read it properly and got the wrong end of the stick

I also haven't had time to study the present Ratings system with it's many, many tweaks over the last 7 years but totally agree that the whole system is a major cockup

How could anyone justify a 12 win horse starting on Thursday at Palmy on the same mark as a 2 win horse (Ya Knows) and getting 20 meters from another 2 win horse (Manchester In Time)?

I don't need how it's happened explained to me, no explanation could justify it; it's just madness

When the Rating system was brought in I predicted the winners of the system would be the old stagers with plenty of starts. That appears to be right

It certainly isn't "like with like"

 

[Walt]

My comparisons are a bit left field but that's how my brain works.

Let's use crime for example. If we think a particular crime is hurting a community in say, Dunedin, we look elsewhere for answers. How did Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch for example recognize there was an impacting problem in the first place and what method did they put in place to address it? Conversely, what did they try and then see that potential solution fail?

Same mindset applies with unemployment, running hospitals and addressing road crash numbers etc etc. We look at other places to find the answers that have the best chance of success. Often those other places are offshore. 

As soon as we see NZ Harness horses being sold on mass to Australia, the red light starts flashing. Why is that a better option than racing in NZ? What is Australia doing right and what are we doing wrong? I'm incredulous that the only change I've witnessed in this very telling dynamic is that the numbers being exported are increasing and at a faster rate. Surely, this has been witnessed by the decision makers in NZ Harness Racing? Studs selling horses makes sense. Owners / trainers selling bread and butter NZ horses to Australia reflects a broken system. It's the opposite of NZ Clubs paying incentives to NZ trainers / owners to race at their NZ meeting. "Placing" horses in NZ has become an art. Some trainers are masters at it. 

We are ignoring the compelling evidence and those with the most invested in the game that have been shouting from the rooftops "THE SYSTEM IS BROKEN".....those steering the Harness train straight into the wall have so much power that they abuse it by putting punitive measures in place for those that speak out against the broken system. 

Unless urgent action is taken, R.I.P NZ Harness Racing. 

[Chief Stipe]

5 minutes ago, Walt said:

My comparisons are a bit left field but that's how my brain works.

Let's use crime for example. If we think a particular crime is hurting a community in say, Dunedin, we look elsewhere for answers. How did Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch for example recognize there was an impacting problem in the first place and what method did they put in place to address it? Conversely, what did they try and then see that potential solution fail?

My approach is to do the opposite if what you are currently doing isn't working. 

[the galah]

Its a bit like the junior driver concessions that they brought in this year.

At the time they were introduced you had the media,commentators,hrnz..everyone saying that it was a way of helping the lesser known juniors get greater opportunities.That it was a great scheme and that it would be a great success.

I suggested at the time that it would not achieve that and in reality all it would do was allow a handful of stables to gain reduced rating points for their horses,by putting on juniors that they were giving opportunities to anyway. I suggested if they really were serious about juniors earning more $ in the industry there were better and more effective ways of doing that.

Well given we are virtually 11 months through the current year what do the stats show.

In 2022 there were 36 juniors who drove. In 2023 there were 45,but of course the number increased mostly because they changed the criteria to allow people already driving as non junior,s to be reclassified as juniors.

so dar in 2023(11 months) those 45 juniors have had an average of 105 drives each compared to the 2022 figure of 132.

The total number of drives by the 36 2022 juniors currently just exceeds the total number by the 45 2023 juniors.

The bottom 21 juniors in 2023 have driben 15 winners while in 2022 the bottom 21 drove 61 winners.

So looking at those figures i think its fair to say that ,as i predicted,the change has done little to help the juniors it was targeted to help the most. Sure there have been a handful ot two who have beneffited ,but its clearly done nothing for those at the bottomof the table and less experienced juniors.

Giving half points to the horses driven by the juniors that met the criteria has just further,in a small way, created a loophole for the clever to take advantage of an already unfair rating system. Good luck to them,but it does seem unfair overall.

Edited November 23, 2023 by the galah

[the galah]

$1.90 again for the win price tonight. Seemed higher than you would have thought given he won so easy the 1st night and started off the front again.

You have to give credit to the house team. They look after their horses very well and place them where they can earn the most $.

Thats what its all about for trainers. W house driving with confidence and making the right moves. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by the galah

[Michael]

Last race at Cambridge this week

A 1 win, and a 2 win horse .... up against a horse that's run 8...

Ratings system is just wonderful, yeah right

 

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Michael said:

Last race at Cambridge this week

A 1 win, and a 2 win horse .... up against a horse that's run 8...

Ratings system is just wonderful, yeah right

 

There are far worse examples of that Michael.

Some races with horses that straight out of maidens against winners of over a dozen .

system is badly flawed and needs amending urgently.

[the galah]

2 hours ago, Michael said:

Last race at Cambridge this week

A 1 win, and a 2 win horse .... up against a horse that's run 8...

Ratings system is just wonderful, yeah right

 

Using the horse you refer to,turnpike joe as an example,we could look at him and say,what happens if he happened to win. Well he would be penalised i think 3 or 4 points,as being a 3 year old he gets reduced rating penalties. If he was older he would be penalised more.

So he would end up having run 4 times for 2 wins and be rated 53 or 54.

Compare that to say katies princess who runs earlier in the night. If she happened to win,i assume she gets the win penalty free as she hasn't won a penalty free race this season,just last season.

Anyway katies princess,if she wins her rating stays a r48 with a record of 6 wins and 8 placings from 29 starts.Thats significantly lower than the horse who had only 2 wins.

In fact hypothetically katies princess could win its next 3 in a row driven by L hibelll,thus becoming an 8 win horse from 31 starts ....and still be rated no higher than the 4 start 2 win horse turnpike joe.And thats remembering turnpike joe would have got the 3 year old concession.

If Turnpike joe was a 4 year old,katies princess could win 4 in a row,become a 9 win,8 placing horse from 32 start and still be rated no higher than a 2 win 4 start 4 year old.

As brodie says,there are actually worse examples than that.

Edited December 19, 2023 by the galah

[Spatchcock]

2 hours ago, Michael said:

Last race at Cambridge this week

A 1 win, and a 2 win horse .... up against a horse that's run 8...

Ratings system is just wonderful, yeah right

 

Until you can get your mindset past 'career wins', there is no hope for you. Just last week Peter Forsberg was soundly beaten by horses rated in the 40s, come with 1 career win.
 

[the galah]

1 hour ago, Spatchcock said:

Until you can get your mindset past 'career wins', there is no hope for you. Just last week Peter Forsberg was soundly beaten by horses rated in the 40s, come with 1 career win.
 

So if turnpike joe's rating of r50 is fair,then why have they programmed a race where he can start against the much lower rated horses.

If the rating system was fair,why not just have him run in his own rating band?

Them having to programme a race like that is clear evidence that the ratings system can not operate fairly just based on ratings.

Isn't that obvious?

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by the galah

[Spatchcock]

Those are questions for the handicappers and Cambridge's Michael Douglas. But the race conditions allowed for up to 54 raters and horses with up to two career wins, which basically allows in horses that was won a couple of races quickly and found themselves on 55 or 56.

Turnpike Joe walked up the straight in 30.7 when winning that maiden so putting him in the grade via discretion is judicious.

Putting him in the other race meant taking on Hesashorething, a horse that as recently as May beat home Beach Ball and Mossdale Ben in a stakes race at Addington.

 

[the galah]

2 hours ago, Spatchcock said:

Those are questions for the handicappers and Cambridge's Michael Douglas. But the race conditions allowed for up to 54 raters and horses with up to two career wins, which basically allows in horses that was won a couple of races quickly and found themselves on 55 or 56.

Turnpike Joe walked up the straight in 30.7 when winning that maiden so putting him in the grade via discretion is judicious.

Putting him in the other race meant taking on Hesashorething, a horse that as recently as May beat home Beach Ball and Mossdale Ben in a stakes race at Addington.

 

All that makes sense.

So you've just said "the  handicapper and cambridges  michael douglas ....have judiciously used their discretion." Judicious meaning good judgment or good sense.

Reality is more often than not ,1 win horses are not treated with judicious discretion.

So why not change the rating system so as to give them a fairer more realistic rating in the first place.R50 is too high.Treat the cause not the symptom. Also if they are to continue using discretion,how about some consistency.

Also why are some horses able to use half penalties for concession junior driver wins  over and over again. Not that i agree with it, but why not limit it to 1 per horse and if they are to keep that rule then make it up to the juniors 100th win.

Also why are some horses able to win a penalty free race each season. Why not limit it to one like they used to.

Why do they have such systems when they complain about not having enough higher rated. After all they are helping create that problem.

also those who design the rating system use the logic that a 2 year old or 3 year old need half penalties because they progress too quickly if given full penalties per win.  So it matters to them,so why the double standard for 4 year olds and older. Why don't they matter:

Edited December 19, 2023 by the galah

[Brodie]

The ratings system currently being used has been in for far too long !

The last race at Cambridge has only 6 starters and the only reason a ratings 50 gorse ks in there is to make up the numbers and nothing about discretion at all!

A ratings 50 in an up to 42 class race????

They are just lacking numbers in the North Island and things do not appear to be betting any better !

The first race the trot has the 4 with the lowest ratings that being rating 35, giving much tighter rating horses a 30 metre start?????

How the HRNZ can justify maintaining this current system and says that it is working the way it was designed to is hard to fathom!

 

[Blackie]

6 hours ago, Brodie said:

 

They are just lacking numbers in the North Island 

 

Nail on head Brodie.

Need more horses.

[Michael]

17 hours ago, Spatchcock said:

Until you can get your mindset past 'career wins', there is no hope for you. Just last week Peter Forsberg was soundly beaten by horses rated in the 40s, come with 1 career win.
 

I can get my mindset around career wins  Spatchcock, but 1 win versus 8 wins is beyond the pale

The Ratings system is crap 

Conditions can be written into any system to allow horses to drop back

[Michael]

8 hours ago, Brodie said:

The ratings system currently being used has been in for far too long !

The last race at Cambridge has only 6 starters and the only reason a ratings 50 gorse ks in there is to make up the numbers and nothing about discretion at all!

A ratings 50 in an up to 42 class race????

They are just lacking numbers in the North Island and things do not appear to be betting any better !

The first race the trot has the 4 with the lowest ratings that being rating 35, giving much tighter rating horses a 30 metre start?????

How the HRNZ can justify maintaining this current system and says that it is working the way it was designed to is hard to fathom!

 

When the Ratings system was brought in it was because "the Class system previously being used had been in far to long"

Do I hear an echo Brodie?

There was nothing wrong with the previous Class based system

The problem was the lack of innovative Conditions by Clubs

Under the Class system you could have written a Condition like "This race is for Class 2 horses. Also eligible horses up to Class 5 who have not won $1000 in their last 10 starts"

This sort of condition could have even been written after Nominations had closed to allow horses, where warranted, to drop back

Instead we got a Ratings system that was touted as the best thing since sliced bread

If it was so great when it was introduced then how come it's had at least 10 changes, and that might be generous, since it was introduced

Oh that's right, they aren't changes, they're tweaks

[Chief Stipe]

I think @Brodie is on the money when he says there arent enough horses going round.

Any rating system would struggle with a declining horse population.

[Michael]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

I think @Brodie is on the money when he says there arent enough horses going round.

Any rating system would struggle with a declining horse population.

Any system at all would struggle

However the Rating system, as Galah states, is seriously flawed

The changes all the time (sorry, the tweaks) are merely band aid after band aid to appease anyone who squeals , they are applied, then someone else squeals, and around we go

 

 

[Brodie]

The reduced no. Of horses going around in several areas is a sign that things need to change.

Current system is great for some horses that go around week in and week out and pick up stake money consistently!

However when a horse that has won 15 races and is at a 35 rating racing against other horses that have won only one race from heaos of starts there is an issue.

Costs to train are at a stage where it is just not attractive for anyone financially to race a horse so there is always going to be a shortage of horses in the future!

 

[Shad]

See he racing over the coast on boxing day, certainly likes the coast too,, small fields again but there is 12 races, there's a race on the second day, called the Durban cheif trot, shame it's taken so many years to recognize the ex champ, who won two dominions and 30 plus wins in America.