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Racing Victoria Handicapper vs Thomass


Boxie

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What is Thomass's kg's to lengths formula?

“The battle between Best Solution and Homesman in the closing stages of the Caulfield Cup produced an epic renewal of one of the world’s great handicap races and the closest finish to the race for more than a decade with the official margin just a half-head,” Carpenter said.

“Over the last 40 years, 63 horses have contested the Melbourne Cup carrying 57 kilograms or more, with only Makybe Diva (58 kilograms) able to win.

“Given the depth of quality in this year’s race and the fact that every additional half-kilogram of weight represents approximately one length over 3200 metres, I have elected not to increase Best Solution’s allocated weight of 57.5 kilograms.

“He was all-out in the finish on Saturday holding off Homesman and he now faces an enormous challenge in the Melbourne Cup, going to a track and distance he has not encountered before in one of the strongest renewals of the Melbourne Cup in its 158-year history.”

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  • 3 weeks later...

Crikey...didn't Bowie have a deadset shocker in the Cup??

Not only did he whip the poor bugger unmercifully...along with the careless riding charge...

...but he would have won the Cup if he'd not been 1Kg overweight!

According to the EXPERT...and not some shonky wonky Donkey wannabe 'handicapper'...

MARMELO wins by a Length!

I almost agree over the 3200...where I use the 1Kg=3/4L over normal distances...

So maybe by a nasal hair...or a horses whisker...

 

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59 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Has Carpenter accessed the latest peer reviewed evidence wrt weight affecting speed I wonder??

Over 3200M....1Kg=2L...

Wheres your peer reviewed evidence??

In the long drop?

Put up the link to this review. I need a good laugh.

My evidence is based around actual horse performance, no guesswork, and is peer reviewed. 

I don't even consider weight in such a fashion. It is of such low impact, and any such metric is a generalisation anyway. Stick to your stats, the TAB needs you.

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But you're on record as saying "weight is massive"...

...but that's you...a massive set of contradictions based on sticking some of your massive stats into the massive stats machine....

...which churns out b/s

Write to Carpenter...tell him you helped Haysy's training mate Dibo...insert a neddy onto a float once...then picked up its Doo dahs

He'll undoubtedly take you very seriously

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Where have I stated weight is massive?

The only time I think weight has any impact is in getting into a race. Which I have mentioned in regards things like getting into the Melbourne Cup. Certainly not while the race is running. 

Please put up a post from me stating such a thing, outside of the idea that more weight is better as per above.

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I can't be f'ed searching...but P Dee wharf can confirm....and if he can't any number of others can

The only way to put the likes of weight deniers like you to bed is through empirical treadmill based evidence....no banked turns, no wanky sectional splits between flashing red lights, no wind

...pure unadulterated EVIDENCE

...read and readjust your weird ignorant thinking......

"Our results show that at 57 seconds that 3.88 pounds is required for each horse length.  Table 1 showed that at 4f,  4.58 pounds was required and at 6f, 3.05 pounds.  Splitting the difference to get 5f puts us at 3.81 pounds.  At 98 seconds we had 2.26 pounds per length and 2.3 pounds for 8f.  So from two different methods one analytical and one based on exercise physiology test of the oxygen consumption of a TB, basically give us the same answer.  This analysis was for dead weight located at the center of gravity of the horse"

They also found larger hoofs attracted more mud and any further kickback that gathered around the feet/ legs incrementally increased the weight loading...Read energy spent...

...rather than a finely balanced Jockey in the perfect position

Hence the widely held belief in NZ that allowances in winter are f in GOLD

Read it...weep...then tattoo it across your noggin...

Carpenter looks as if he knows a thing or two...wtf knew?

Not you

 

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Thanks. I said I needed a good laugh.

I read it. And I wept ... for you.

I use actual horse performance. On track, for the same horse. You use a treadmill. 

Stick to your treadmill. I'll stick to winning.

I wonder how many races are run with a horse running on a treadmill? Perhaps you could give us those stats, Mr lover of stats. 

You've been hoodwinked again, and you don't even know it.

I especially loved the bit about oxygen consumption. 

I'll ask you a simple question. If you take two horses that race each other, and then both race each other at their next starts, over say 1 million instances of that, would the theory average out to what you claim in respect of relative performance to relative carried weight?

If not, why not?

I wouldn't use that method, but it is a simple one across a large sample which takes care of varying scenarios the horse's race under.

Real horses, in real races. Since when I punt, I punt on real races, not treadmill races - and I punt before the race starts.

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What a f in moronic diatribe....

This peer reviewed study was done by Educated men of substance and intellect...

...not drop kicks who say "don't punt on treadmills"

How stupid are you??

Its basic f in 101 research...

...you know... take the variables out of the equation to produce empirical fact based data...FACTS....

....but you don't know... f

Heres another fact...facing the breeze increases oxygen debt...never mind increased weight

clueless is praising you

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You really are stupid.

I'm not saying the research as such is wrong. It is the relationship with the research and the impact to a horse in a race that is wrong.

You know, the impact of weight to a horse in a race. 

Because there is nothing in the research to support it. Which is why you've been hoodwinked. 

Which is why you lose. You believe things that don't correlate.

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6 minutes ago, Thomass said:

 

...you know... take the variables out of the equation to produce empirical fact based data...FACTS....

I haven't seen the report. Only what you put up.

I certainly accept the factual information. It would be the correlation (which I've only seen from you) that is wrong.

You certainly cannot correlate oxygen consumption with any form of impact to race day performance. 

And you cannot correlate treadmill times with any form of impact to race day performance.

What you may be able to is correlate energy consumption under controlled situations. 

Which from a punting perspective is useless. As I would certainly expect it to be easily possible that a horse carrying an extra kilo running flat out on a treadmill to travel more than a length less over 3200m.

That 'research' can't help a punter - except for those punters that use it to make money off the punters like you that believe the research related to races.

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Wtf??

And if that horse in receipt of weight from a previous performance...gets the perfect run...and the other faces the breeze...

...it only accentuates the advantage...

...which is how moi and many others do the form...

...but you ignore without cover...MORON

Of course it helps intelligent Punters knowing that 1Kg= 2L over 3200M

And good to see you've accepted it finally

Let sleeping morons lie

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I haven't accepted what you claim since In a race, I know it is not the case for horses generally. One out of 50,000 it may be. But I expect I know it for that horse.

You do form the way you've been taught. By losers. Which is why you lose.

Answer my question. Why wouldn't the horse's that race each other in 1 million instances, not reflect on average what you claim? 

Surely it would based on your 'evidence'.

Edited by mardigras
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No f'er who gives a f would give tuppence for your 'stats' statsman...

If University Educated Dr.s have decided to once and for all time put to rest the notion that weight is your 0.1L=1Kg...

..and they decide to remove all variables during their empirical peer reviewed research...

Im with them...not you

Shoot me now if I'm wrong God....

Oh gee...I'm still here...what a f in surprise

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14 minutes ago, Thomass said:

 

If University Educated Dr.s have decided to once and for all time put to rest the notion that weight is your 0.1L=1Kg...

..and they decide to remove all variables during their empirical peer reviewed research...

Best you put up the a trial report then, since none of what you wrote states that 1kg in a race equates to anything.

What you put up seemed to suggest what difference in oxygen was needed at varying weight over varying distance.

I certainly hope there is more than that. 

Please get them to explain how they determined what speed to run the treadmill at for each horse. Can't wait.

Let us know how they decided what speed the horse should run at in order to measure the impact of the weight. 

You're so stupid, you've gone with a report on physical impact to horse, not performance impact to horse. It's like talking to a 3yo.

Put the report up since so far it is evidence of SFA.

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Here we have an idiot, pretending to be a handicapper, interpreting research that has nothing to do with racing and drawing conclusions generalising a range of studies that have nothing to do with racing performance to racing performance. Absolute crap. However the more believers we can get, the better. Wonder how much Wellman was losing back in 1999, or whether he's seen the light since?

http://www.goto4winds.com/horse/weighthorse2.html

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1 hour ago, curious said:

Here we have an idiot, pretending to be a handicapper, interpreting research that has nothing to do with racing and drawing conclusions generalising a range of studies that have nothing to do with racing performance to racing performance. Absolute crap. However the more believers we can get, the better. Wonder how much Wellman was losing back in 1999, or whether he's seen the light since?

http://www.goto4winds.com/horse/weighthorse2.html

After all that analysis, his last sentence says it all "Weight carrying ability is based on their size and their maximum oxygen consumption level." Another words, you can't just factor in a figure but need to assess each horse on what they have previously done with weight over distance/track conditions etc. A horse wins a race, not a treadmill.

 

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13 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said:

After all that analysis, his last sentence says it all "Weight carrying ability is based on their size and their maximum oxygen consumption level." Another words, you can't just factor in a figure but need to assess each horse on what they have previously done with weight over distance/track conditions etc. A horse wins a race, not a treadmill.

 

The 'research', in so far as racing performance, is worthless. But the blinkers on study is going to make great reading all the same.

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