mardigras Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: do the researchers wear blinkers, the horse, or both? The 'researchers' and Thomass. It won't matter what the horses wear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 I wonder how much the 4kg affected the price of the fav. Ignore that and you have a pretty easy tri or first 4. When you stop sulking again, try and come back with some relevant data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 On 10/11/2018 at 5:48 PM, curious said: Here we have an idiot, pretending to be a handicapper, interpreting research that has nothing to do with racing and drawing conclusions generalising a range of studies that have nothing to do with racing performance to racing performance. Absolute crap. However the more believers we can get, the better. Wonder how much Wellman was losing back in 1999, or whether he's seen the light since? http://www.goto4winds.com/horse/weighthorse2.html I suggest you get a pound of butter on each shoulder...let's call them chips... Run a straight six...naked along side grassi...and see who's puffing harder post race... ...then Après in the room Moi's 1Kg = 0.1 secs as standard... is looking about right as a general rule ...although I should really add more to apps in the winter by the looks... ..it appears that mud on the hooves and over the legs really does hinder speed... ...btw...how's your 0/20 tipping record at Del Mar looking compared to your NZ one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 On 10/11/2018 at 6:55 PM, FeelTheFear said: After all that analysis, his last sentence says it all "Weight carrying ability is based on their size and their maximum oxygen consumption level." Another words, you can't just factor in a figure but need to assess each horse on what they have previously done with weight over distance/track conditions etc. A horse wins a race, not a treadmill. Haha, it's funny how some people go through their lives thinking a term such as "another words" is the correct one... In other words...you're taking this far too far... I know for sure an excellent apprentice is worth GOLD...especially in winter...after claiming 0.3 secs worth of ground made good... ...where moi's NZ niche of superior black Type form back to inferior comes into play... keep it simple stupid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 15 hours ago, mardigras said: I wonder how much the 4kg affected the price of the fav. Ignore that and you have a pretty easy tri or first 4. When you stop sulking again, try and come back with some relevant data. Wow wee wowzer... You've come up with another thumbnail...a pity you don't post a whole meeting from NZ though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Thomass said: Moi's 1Kg = 0.1 secs as standard... is looking about right as a general rule Sure is, for gullible punters that believe crap. Edited November 11, 2018 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, Thomass said: Wow wee wowzer... You've come up with another thumbnail...a pity you don't post a whole meeting from NZ though... 20181111Hastings_S5.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Those who deny Weight v distance made good.. ...are WFA deniers... Its as bad as joining the Flat Earth society... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, Thomass said: Those who deny Weight v distance made good.. ...are WFA deniers... Its as bad as joining the Flat Earth society... I have no idea of what you're trying to say, but I have no issue with the WFA scale. I expect there is generally around 0.1L per kilo difference corresponding to the scale to address the 'general' performance difference the scale is trying to nullify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, mardigras said: I have no idea of what you're trying to say, but I have no issue with the WFA scale. I expect there is generally around 0.1L per kilo difference corresponding to the scale to address the 'general' performance difference the scale is trying to nullify. Good try... "I expect" You should email Carpenter and let him put you to the sword... Better...ring him... Tell him you go to quite a lot of Cups and Cox's...and you've helped Dibo put neddys on floats... ...then picked up the Doo dahs... ...he'll think you've got skin in the game for sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, Thomass said: Good try... "I expect" You should email Carpenter and let him put you to the sword... Better...ring him... Tell him you go to quite a lot of Cups and Cox's...and you've helped Dibo put neddys on floats... ...then picked up the Doo dahs... ...he'll think you've got skin in the game for sure I don't need to ring someone that is so far out of touch. He wouldn't have any more chance of putting me to the sword than you do. I.e. none. I've done very robust modelling of it. So I know the general impact of weight. It's how I profit. And my modelling is a bit more extensive than a few thousand horses. I model hundreds of thousands of horses. Why can't you explain why when horse A meets horse B in two consecutive starts for both of them, why the variance in weight compared to the variance in margin is less than 0.15L per kilo across 230,000 horses. Is the horse getting the extra weight relief always the one being disadvantaged under the race conditions when the 2nd race comes along. By about 0.6L per kilo, it would seem. How funny. My other two forms of modelling are far superior to that - you wouldn't even understand them. But that one gives a very strong guide to weight anyway given it is real horses, real races, real weight changes and real margins. No treadmills involved. Race day advantages impacting results would be likely to be evenly spread between Horse A and Horse B. Do you want me to send you the 230,000 horses across 470,000 race results? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 7 hours ago, Thomass said: ...btw...how's your 0/20 tipping record at Del Mar looking compared to your NZ one? My NZ one is nil as you know. Del Mar was pretty ok. A 9% ROI over the meeting. 14% on the 20/1 shots that I was mostly tipping though I'm not sure that your counting has improved with the remedial classes. I doubt there were 20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 6 hours ago, mardigras said: I don't need to ring someone that is so far out of touch. He wouldn't have any more chance of putting me to the sword than you do. I.e. none. I've done very robust modelling of it. So I know the general impact of weight. It's how I profit. And my modelling is a bit more extensive than a few thousand horses. I model hundreds of thousands of horses. Why can't you explain why when horse A meets horse B in two consecutive starts for both of them, why the variance in weight compared to the variance in margin is less than 0.15L per kilo across 230,000 horses. Is the horse getting the extra weight relief always the one being disadvantaged under the race conditions when the 2nd race comes along. By about 0.6L per kilo, it would seem. How funny. My other two forms of modelling are far superior to that - you wouldn't even understand them. But that one gives a very strong guide to weight anyway given it is real horses, real races, real weight changes and real margins. No treadmills involved. Race day advantages impacting results would be likely to be evenly spread between Horse A and Horse B. Do you want me to send you the 230,000 horses across 470,000 race results? I'd sooner fly Aeroflot with a bunch of hairy legged Air Hostess's from a Gulag than read that phantasy.. You're clueless when it comes to translating even basic stuff like 'wide without cover' ...treating that run the same as a perfect trail.... ...utter imbecile... And then you say..."3L either way..don't matter to me" ...nearly as silly as bogan Bazz' ..."ignore last 3 starts...get better price" No wonder NZ's productivity is one of the lowest in the OECD with morons like you amongst us... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 hour ago, curious said: My NZ one is nil as you know. Del Mar was pretty ok. A 9% ROI over the meeting. 14% on the 20/1 shots that I was mostly tipping though I'm not sure that your counting has improved with the remedial classes. I doubt there were 20. Yea you forgot to add one actually needs to tip a winner to get 14% of sfa of nothing... Wait until your fellow Dons hear that you've dissed their good work.... A treadmill is the only way to dismiss variables.... How stupid are you and the class clown to question that study by telling us " they don't have treadmill races" f me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, Thomass said: You're clueless when it comes to translating even basic stuff like 'wide without cover Perhaps, better than just being totally clueless like you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Thomass said: A treadmill is the only way to dismiss variables.... A treadmill certainly does dismiss variables. All of them. There is nothing left to gain an understanding of, including the impact of weight. What's hilarious is one of us is successful at punting and the other one is you. Edited November 12, 2018 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, Thomass said: I'd sooner fly Aeroflot with a bunch of hairy legged Air Hostess's from a Gulag than read that phantasy.. I wasn't offering any study. I was offering the actual results of the actual races that demonstrate that for 230,000 odd horses, weight made little to no difference to consecutive results of races with matching horses. Anyone can work out the variance in weight and the resulting variance to margin - I say anyone, but I probably mean anyone except you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: A treadmill certainly does dismiss variables. All of them. There is nothing left to gain an understanding of, including the impact of weight. What was the Pen reading on the treadmill Thomass?. Hey Mardi start getting ready for the 3yr olds after Xmas that have blinkers on and were wide with no cover last start whose sires have names that are in the 2nd half of the alphabet ridden by a 3-4kg apprentice in the wet. Go you good things. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, barryb said: What was the Pen reading on the treadmill Thomass?. Hey Mardi start getting ready for the 3yr olds after Xmas that have blinkers on and were wide with no cover last start whose sires have names that are in the 2nd half of the alphabet ridden by a 3-4kg apprentice in the wet. Go you good things. I think starting with the letter P was a major factor from memory. Certainly about as useful as all of the other Thomass theories which are for punters interested in having no money in their account(s). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: I think starting with the letter P was a major factor from memory. Certainly about as useful as all of the other Thomass theories which are for punters interested in having no money in their account(s). Thankfully though there are idiots like him about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, mardigras said: I wasn't offering any study. I was offering the actual results of the actual races that demonstrate that for 230,000 odd horses, weight made little to no difference to consecutive results of races with matching horses. Anyone can work out the variance in weight and the resulting variance to margin - I say anyone, but I probably mean anyone except you. Who said anything about consecutive results with matching horses apart from you?? Your matches could have been slowing down after an easy win...but you're too blind to see... ...and now you tell us those matching horses have the greater weighted horse being even more superior ...as if increased weight makes it even faster... f me....go back to dunce class Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thomass said: ...and now you tell us those matching horses have the greater weighted horse being even more superior OMG are you for real T? You must be taking the piss surely?. I have seen similar data to what Mardi is referring too & it shows exactly what he has stated. My data is NZ/Aust only, Mardi's obviously has a wider scope than that and still shows the same results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Thomas, I ask you again Put up 4 horses for Saturday before 11.30am and let's see if your theories work Simple request Show some grit and just do it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Thommo, I'm an open minded character. Can you provide us some data set or evidence supporting your argument please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, barryb said: Thankfully though there are idiots like him about. Two University Studies by Dons baz.... The only flowchart you'd understand is whakachanga---drink--flow--repeat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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