Mk2_Zephyr Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 What a difference in two weeks, I was humming after the Caulfield Cup, but now most of my top likes have been gutted. The Lexus is going to be a rippa tomorrow, but the race is not like the old Mackinnon, where the horses storming home, were always good for the next Tuesday. The latest list of acceptances, has the Caulfield winner (still a Grp 1 winner ... ) at 15s, great money to follow up on I now realise why all that money was on Ace High in the Caulfield, because he won last years Vic Derby, but now instead of $10 (CCup) he is at 70s ! They still have at least one Japanese horse in and a few early punted horses have drifted to $15 - 20 ... so there is plenty of money if you follow your early tip. Red Card ($100) stills owes me from last year and now trained by Weir, but I realised that all the wins overseas (last year) seem to have been on right hand tracks and his only decent run this season was in SYDNEY. So a couple of bucks will be all he gets, 1 for my money back and 1 because of the trainer .. And still a few overseas horses that have not started yet, not really a good thing, yet the money is good. That leaves a couple of early punts, Yucatan and Magic Circle, neither of which I particularly like, but the money is ON, so we will see if I can get a ear on these two ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Another nice return foiled by a poor friday track work-out, TOSEN B is scratched by Mr Weir ... I am getting scuppered by all these late withdrawals ...... If I up the bet on RED CARDINAL, guaranteed he will be pulled too ..... Checked out YUCATAN's Herbert Power run, not bad And MAGIC CIRCLES run in the Chester Cup (G2) was enormous !!! And the Irish Derby at Curragh was interesting, what a course, up and down hills, and a very close finish between LATROBE, ROSTRO and PRINCE of ARRAN ... So this Cup is getting weirder by the day ... gonna stick a couple on ACE HIGH, to see what happens ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Obviously not ARRAN in the Derby, he was in the Chester Cup. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weasel Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 I now realise why all that money was on Ace High in the Caulfield, because he won last years Vic Derby, but now instead of $10 (CCup) he is at 70s ! Remember Efficient ??...didn't win a race between the Derby and the Cup victory the next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Early picks: There are 5 in it for me, Yucatan is a great chance but is too short in the odds. Best Solution, Avilius, The Cliffsofmoher and A Prince Of Arran are the others. On a good track I like Best Solution and Avilius. However, rain is expected and a soft track sees Avilius and The Cliffsofmoher on top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 "The forecaster advised punters heading to Flemington tomorrow to prepare for a wet day, with up to 30mm of rain expected for Melbourne over the next 48 hours.But the wild weather should clear for the main event.“The risk of a thunderstorm should cease by race time,” Mr Carlyon said.“The heaviest rain for Cup Day is looking like it will come through the morning.”Melbourne is forecast to reach 20C tomorrow and 16C on Wednesday.It will be 18C and partly cloudy on Oaks Day." https://www.news.com.au/.../8868a21f9f3f303e3c57e2b5d1a05334 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Rain ? ? ? ... ? Now that really fudges things ... ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Diceman's Been Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Each way - all day Both Moroney runners Get on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Sunrise Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Who loves the wet? Help me you galloping boys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagship uberalles Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 42 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said: Who loves the wet? Help me you galloping boys If it's anything to go on, magic circle backed right in to fav due to his appreciation of mud happy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 It is not that wet ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 Totally confused now, with all the withdrawals and differing track conditions, but .... here goes CROSS COUNTER to win, with AVILIUS and MAGIC CIRCLE flying home late ... Can't believe RED CARDS money, 100-1 all week and today only 30-1, with the crook in the saddle ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Sitting in the armchair, on my second large bourbon on the rocks, watching Melbourne Cup day races. Backed 5 in the big one, managed to get $7.50 for Yucatan so he is my insurance bet. The other 4 are Best Solution, Avilius, The Cliffsofmaher and A Prince of Arran. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Unreal. Back 5 in the Cup, get a third. Wife once again picks by the horses name in each race. Picks up 1st race @$7.00, misses next then proceeds to get every race for a place afterwards. Unfortunately they were win bets including Moonlover beaten a head at $19. She had Marmelo each way and her biggest bet A Prince of Arran at $5.00 each way. Got back almost all the bets so good but frustrating afternoon. She picked Prince of Penzance when it won the Cup 3 years ago because a woman was riding it. I give up. Taking up dxarts. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 One for the black book. Race 8 Listed Furphy Plate over 1800m. Waller's Black On Gold resuming. 9th on turn, huge run along inside, beaten 2.1 lengths 4th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mk2_Zephyr Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 Good day, got the quinella, and 20 win on CC, should have had a shot at the Tri, with the Prince ... ! but lost 30 place on BEST SOLUTION, (had to throw a biscuit on my C Cup winner .. ) Also think Best Solution was one of the runs of the day, when you see how much he lost at the start !!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 (edited) Another couple of days of brilliant Flemington racing. Sad about cliffsofmoher. And the rain was extreme which was slightly disappointing. It was easily the most rain I've experienced at the track in the 20 odd years of cup attendance. But wow, the ability to recover so quickly was amazing. As expected, the European horses are just too good, although I thought Our Charles Road ran well - fitness possibly being an issue due to interrupted prep. Godolphin horses have really delivered the entire carnival. Brilliant. I expect we'll see more European 3yos entered from here on in. Edited November 7, 2018 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 On 6/11/2018 at 4:33 PM, Mk2_Zephyr said: Totally confused now, with all the withdrawals and differing track conditions, but .... here goes CROSS COUNTER to win, with AVILIUS and MAGIC CIRCLE flying home late ... Can't believe RED CARDS money, 100-1 all week and today only 30-1, with the crook in the saddle ... Excellent tipping Mork...you know the Blue print Less convictions...young legs with a light weight... Something needs to be done about the Handicapping with these NH neddys...it just ain't cwicket Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 (edited) 18 hours ago, Thomass said: Something needs to be done about the Handicapping with these NH neddys...it just ain't cwicket Who are you referring to? Hopefully not Cross Counter. Weighted at a point relative to a derby winner 0.5 kilo lighter, 0.5 kilo higher than an oaks winner and 0.5 kilo below a multiple G1, multiple G2 winner. A horse that had won a single G3 race and second in a G2 race. I like the less convictions idea with Cross Counter. A horse that was injured at Werribee, missed a weeks work, never having raced on a track as soft as that before and never over a distance longer than 2400m and UP in grade. That pretty much brings every horse racing into the 'less convictions' category. I'll add those to the 'formula'. Edited November 8, 2018 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Of course the allowance 3yo's get... Carpenter will undoubtedly change his assessments in future ..after the VRC have a meeting...although Carp has alreaded signalled such a move ..and then the review of the Werribee training facility..which appears to be a harbinger for injuries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Thomass said: Of course the allowance 3yo's get... Carpenter will undoubtedly change his assessments in future ..after the VRC have a meeting...although Carp has alreaded signalled such a move So, be explicit. Which of a to d is going to happen? A) the 3yos are going to be weighted higher B) the 3yos are going to be weighted lower C) the comparison against 'benchmark' weights is going to be removed D) some other option Can't wait to hear. If it's D, please elaborate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 The only crystal ball I like or want to read is the Princess's.... My advice to you...is leave it up to the EXPERTS Now we all know you consider yourself to be Lord f in JC himself.....in perpetuity.. ...and you'll suggest something wildly inaccurate...like the complete opposite of what Trainers think... ....but fill ya boots anyway JC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 I do leave it to the experts. I am an expert when it comes to punting, verifiably so. Which is why I call you out on all your trash. I don't question trainers doing what they do. I leave training to them, but we are usually talking about punting, and the two are different topics. Back to your post. You referred to changes about 'allowances' and stated something was already planned. Seems you don't know what. Par for the course with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 5 hours ago, mardigras said: I do leave it to the experts. I am an expert when it comes to punting, That wasn’t you who backed Rostropovich at the “Call of the Card”? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 19 minutes ago, Ghost said: That wasn’t you who backed Rostropovich at the “Call of the Card”? wasn't me but I did back him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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