Melbourne Cup Media Reality.

[FeelTheFear]

It has been written that 3yos do not win the Melbourne Cup and that has been the case with Australian/NZ 3yos. After all, if they were born in early August, they would be only 3 years and 3 months old. On the other hand, the winner Cross Counter was born on 05 April 2015. That means he is 3 years and 7 months old. That additional 4 months of development, aligned with the staying power of northern hemisphere horses must play a part in the trend of 3yos now winning the Melbourne Cup.

Rekindling, last years winner was born on 23 Mar. 2014, making him a similar age to Cross Counter. Media show both Rekindling and Cross Counter as 4yos (based upon 1st Aug). This was taken from a a website about Melbourne Cup facts. "The Melbourne Cup is open to all horses aged 3 years plus, but is is generally won by 4 and 5 year olds. The last three year old to win the Melbourne Cup was Skipton in 1941."

Not true. Leave out visiting 3yos at your peril. 

[Ghost]

The Melbourne Cup has evolved

As a punter one needs to evolve with the times

Trainers will now be looking at their stable which horse can we beat the handicapper with

Hsve a look at the weights the first 6 home carried 

Last years Melbourne Cup winner Rekindled no weight on back

Times have changed 

The biggest challenge these trainers face is how do we qualify these lightly raced horses and get in with no weight

I know next year as a punter what end of the weight scale I will be looking at

Anything over 55kgs will be scratched in my book as will horses over the age of 6

Magic Circle 7 years lol

Best Solution 57.5kgs 

The race has evolved

[Weasel]

I agree with Ghost. Very hard for all but the most classy near-champions to compete with big weights against the lighter-weighted 3yo/4yos esp now the Northern Hemisphere owners are 'on the case' knowing they have to front with class gallopers not dour (read: slow) stayers used to 3600+ in England.
Magic Circle was a huge disappointment for me, esp when the rain came (Cross Counter wasn't!). Finche will be a big danger next year if he returns.   

[mardigras]

On 9/11/2018 at 3:09 PM, Ghost said:

The Melbourne Cup has evolved

As a punter one needs to evolve with the times

Trainers will now be looking at their stable which horse can we beat the handicapper with

Hsve a look at the weights the first 6 home carried 

Last years Melbourne Cup winner Rekindled no weight on back

Times have changed 

The biggest challenge these trainers face is how do we qualify these lightly raced horses and get in with no weight

I know next year as a punter what end of the weight scale I will be looking at

Anything over 55kgs will be scratched in my book as will horses over the age of 6

Magic Circle 7 years lol

Best Solution 57.5kgs 

The race has evolved

Some of that is inevitable. 

As for the part of getting a lightly raced horse in with no weight. For an Australasian - nearly no chance. The 3yos can't do it without placing in the derby (and a win is likely the only option). 4yos are still going to have to have won an all aged race of quality or a prior oaks/derby. Which puts them up in the weight scale straight away. older horses are likely going to have has more races on the track, given the way they are prepared here.

I don't think weight is an issue. It is the simple way that a Euro 3yo has to get in the field that is going to cause issues. They have a very serious advantage - they are better, and they are of a breeding age that puts them in a better position than an Oz 4yo. That means they can easily qualify and get in the race.

I don't think weight is the issue. The problem is that most of the higher weighted Euro horses are more likely very good handicappers. The Euro 3yos are likely very decent at WFA level. 

There aren't many horses that race at over 55kgs generally in the cup. But if you get a quality 3yo against a quality older handicapper, the 3yo is likely at an advantage in my opinion. In 2011, Dunaden won as #3 at 54.5kg.

We have short memories. Makybe Diva (NH bred), won with ever increasing weight. Won each time by the same margin. I think it is quality of horse as opposed to weight that determines outcome. And that has been the case in recent years generally.

[Ghost]

59 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Some of that is inevitable. 

As for the part of getting a lightly raced horse in with no weight. For an Australasian - nearly no chance. The 3yos can't do it without placing in the derby (and a win is likely the only option). 4yos are still going to have to have won an all aged race of quality or a prior oaks/derby. Which puts them up in the weight scale straight away. older horses are likely going to have has more races on the track, given the way they are prepared here.

I don't think weight is an issue. It is the simple way that a Euro 3yo has to get in the field that is going to cause issues. They have a very serious advantage - they are better, and they are of a breeding age that puts them in a better position than an Oz 4yo. That means they can easily qualify and get in the race.

I don't think weight is the issue. The problem is that most of the higher weighted Euro horses are more likely very good handicappers. The Euro 3yos are likely very decent at WFA level. 

There aren't many horses that race at over 55kgs generally in the cup. But if you get a quality 3yo against a quality older handicapper, the 3yo is likely at an advantage in my opinion. In 2011, Dunaden won as #3 at 54.5kg.

We have short memories. Makybe Diva (NH bred), won with ever increasing weight. Won each time by the same margin. I think it is quality of horse as opposed to weight that determines outcome. And that has been the case in recent years generally.

One thing I have never done is read the qualifying criteria on the Cup since I’m going to invest rather heavily on the Cup next year it would be in my best interest to read and understand how a horse like Cross Current Rekindled can qualify after 7 starts 

Yet a horse like Patrick Erin can win the Metropolitan and miss qualifying 

I have no issues with horses carrying weight in Sprints  

As much as I respect your opinion I’m going to disagree with you regarding carrying weight for the Melbourne Cup 

Makybe Diva was an exceptional stayer

I understand quality should be weighted accordingly 

When I say the race has evolved it has evolved favourable towards the NH horses 

With Rekindled and Cross Current winning these NH trainers are now going to go home and look at what horses are in their stable that are lightly raced can qualify for the race get in with 51 52 53 kgs that have the ability to become a Melbourne Cup contender over the next 12 months

Going back a few years I had no issues with weight I would judge them on ability half the field couldn’t get the two miles

Times have changed and I will be setting my guidelines on investing on the race a lot differently than I used to

[mardigras]

56 minutes ago, Ghost said:

When I say the race has evolved it has evolved favourable towards the NH horses 

With Rekindled and Cross Current winning these NH trainers are now going to go home and look at what horses are in their stable that are lightly raced can qualify for the race get in with 51 52 53 kgs that have the ability to become a Melbourne Cup contender over the next 12 months

I agree. I expect an influx of NH 3yo noms. They will get in with a simple G3 win or so. Without having to run in Oz. And can be set for the race the way they do in Europe.

These horses are NH derby types - compared to SH derby/oaks types - where there will be a likely disparity in ability. it will be increasingly difficult for a SH horse to even make the field let alone be competitive. Even without the NH 3yos, that would still be the case.

[Ghost]

Cross Current Cross Counter same thing

I think only 2 eight year olds have won the cup

No horse from gate 18 has won the cup

Who Shot The Barman draws gate 18 he’s 10 years old no nine year old has won the cup let alone 10 talk about stats stacked against you

I kept very quiet on my thoughts of him being in the field as I would have got shot down he passed the criteria to take his place in the field anyone give him a chance as an 11 year old next year

[globederby12]

Isn't there an underlying fear here that eventually we may see an Australasian icon highjacked totally by NH horses , which to my eyes has started already.

It's like having half the field in an Arc Dr Triomphe from down under. Or is the Melbourne Cup overrated.

[barryb]

11 minutes ago, globederby12 said:

Isn't there an underlying fear here that eventually we may see an Australasian icon highjacked totally by NH horses , which to my eyes has started already.

It's like having half the field in an Arc Dr Triomphe from down under. Or is the Melbourne Cup overrated.

Its overrated and has really become a bore fest.

The cox plate is far more entertaining and of interest.

[theshu]

First year in 40 years i not have a bet in the Melbourne Cup.Too hard ,had no idea about the european horses,  so in the end,i couldnt be bothered to have a bet. Same went for quite a few of my friends and they all like to have a bet also. 

[Mooncoin]

24 minutes ago, barryb said:

Its overrated and has really become a bore fest.

The cox plate is far more entertaining and of interest.

Barry,your thoughts on the cup being a invite only?So to find a more balanced field from around the world or a series of qualification races to justify there places in the field. 

[mardigras]

43 minutes ago, globederby12 said:

Isn't there an underlying fear here that eventually we may see an Australasian icon highjacked totally by NH horses , which to my eyes has started already.

It's like having half the field in an Arc Dr Triomphe from down under. Or is the Melbourne Cup overrated.

It's been over half the field for a while. If you look at races like the Metropolitan, over half the field was NH bred.

I prefer the race with the NH horses compared to without.

[Flagship uberalles]

1 minute ago, globederby12 said:

Isn't there an underlying fear here that eventually we may see an Australasian icon highjacked totally by NH horses , which to my eyes has started already.

It's like having half the field in an Arc Dr Triomphe from down under. Or is the Melbourne Cup overrated.

You see that in the breeder's cup in the u.s, the big asian and Arab races, choc full of European horses, all the prize money to big to resist, you can't blame them for that. 

[mardigras]

34 minutes ago, barryb said:

Its overrated and has really become a bore fest.

The cox plate is far more entertaining and of interest.

As a race, I think it is a great event. The number of starters and the track make it that way to me. The Cox plate is a race of quality, the Melbourne Cup is a race that still has huge interest no matter what the critics claim.

I've been to both the Cox Plate and the Cup many times. The atmosphere for the Cox Plate doesn't get near that of the cup for an individual race - even with the very limited space at MV.

[mardigras]

52 minutes ago, globederby12 said:

It's like having half the field in an Arc Dr Triomphe from down under. Or is the Melbourne Cup overrated.

Not judging by the increased level of interest in it for decent horses from Europe. 

[barryb]

55 minutes ago, theshu said:

First year in 40 years i not have a bet in the Melbourne Cup.Too hard ,had no idea about the european horses,  so in the end,i couldnt be bothered to have a bet. Same went for quite a few of my friends and they all like to have a bet also. 

Yes exactly, the basic problem is now we struggle to get a line on the form & field so the just cant be bothered aspect has crept in for a lot of punters.

The multitude of once a year punters are not phased by this.