Punting 1.01

[mardigras]

Given this is a racing site. And some may think I'm overly tough on Thomass. I'm happy to have a proper debate on the topic of these things without the need to get all aggressive. 

I'm quite happy to try and explain why some approaches are flawed etc. (Which has nothing to do with my approach, just that they are flawed).

I don't have the answers. But what I do have is what are NOT the answers. 

What I can provide is insight from a punter that has been successful for decades at punting. Not just bullshit after the races crap. (not that it should be necessary, but I can prove this). And we are in an awesome position of having the likes of barryb, ftf, curious and others with real punting ability that they have so far been happy to share. 

I also don't claim to have the answers. Just take a look at the selections others put up. Brilliant. We don't always agree. It isn't able to be done that way. 

If this site wants people like barryb to offer insights, then how can that be a bad thing. If you backed all the selections barryb has put up on this site, I expect you'd be doing pretty well.

But what I'd say to any punter that wants to succeed at punting. You must bet to value AND you MUST know what value is. That is talking from a winning mindset - not all punters want to win or even really care about winning. Newmarket made a good point about that. Each to their own etc. 

But if it is about winning, then you should understand value. If you just want to have a bet and enjoy some fun, that is great. I'm not even trying to change that.

But if you come in with suggestions that things like blinkers on or down in grade relate to chance assessment, then you will have to back that up with some evidence - surely.

If someone asks me a sane question, I'm more than happy to answer it the best I can  - or others will hopefully. This isn't about who is better, this is about sharing info. We're a small group of people that ultimately won't affect the marketplace. So why not?

Thomass calls this stuff arrogant. Which is like going to the doctor and he/she diagnoses your problem and you call them arrogant. They are supposedly professionals in their field.

[VC!]

Do you bet on Sport or just racing?

[mardigras]

3 minutes ago, VC! said:

Do you bet on Sport or just racing?

Just racing. But the principles of value apply everywhere.

Edited December 1, 2018 by mardigras

[FeelTheFear]

Great idea, I sure could learn much more and apply to my betting. Over the years, I have come to a conclusion... I don't need to back more winners but back less losers....and hence a better ROI. I bet very selectively, perhaps only a couple per day. I don't expect to win every race. My goal is to win long term.

Look forward to some sharing on this thread. 

[VC!]

Is there value laying horses at 1.01 is the strike rate more than 1 in a hundred

[VC!]

I’ve read on here some people don’t do form can you find value if you don’t do form?

[VC!]

Down in class surely this is an individuals assessment it’s up to you to decide on the ability of the horse and the field it’s up against 

[VC!]

When assessing the form do you need to assess every horse in the race?

Obviously you abide and apply a set of principles to each runner then set the prices to 100% then you compare your market to the actual market to find value

What principles are a given

Track conditions

Distance

Starts at the track

Fresh up record, how many starts into its prep is its best performance 

Jockey / change of jockey

Pace or lack of it in the race

Barrier draw

Age?

Class rise or drop based on your own opinion

Time the horse ran eg a horse winning in 55.7 at Hawkesbury over 1000mtrs doesn’t mean it’s going to measure up against a horse say that wins in 56.9 over 1000mtrs at Randwick

Which are the most important above and which are irrelevant and have I missed any of note

[VC!]

Once you have assessed the form and set your market you have the choice to back or lay

Do you back more or lay more?

Is there value in betting in the running?

Have I asked too many questions?

Ok i’ll Shut up!!!

[barryb]

5 hours ago, VC! said:

I’ve read on here some people don’t do form can you find value if you don’t do form?

Absolutely, it’s often a case of other sharp punters have done the form for you and you are taking a market lead from them but you are spending all your time getting the best price rather than researching form.

And that’s not listening to Bevan when he says $20k invested on this runner as almost surely the value has gone and you are taking unders about that horse, the steam has happened and likely you are betting at the bottom of the market.

ie: Ted from BGP is obviously a sharp punter, back his longer priced first picks and get say 10% better odds than he suggests and you will probably will be in front. He’s done the form, you do the price shopping.

BF is a super market lead for Aust or even now NZ, Yesterday Espresso Martini at Ellerslie had heaps on it early which suggests a sharp punter had done the form, back it fixed elsewhere when first noticed and you are ahead of the steam.

Theres 2 Blue Print ideas which are mini pots of gold and you don’t need to do a thing wasting time doing form. Unlike other silly BP ideas they work and take seconds to do.

[barryb]

6 hours ago, FeelTheFear said:

Great idea, I sure could learn much more and apply to my betting. Over the years, I have come to a conclusion... I don't need to back more winners but back less losers....and hence a better ROI. I bet very selectively, perhaps only a couple per day. I don't expect to win every race. My goal is to win long term.

Look forward to some sharing on this thread. 

Ok how about this FTF, punting is a game of opposites, what you are suggesting is what most do and what do most do? LOSE.

Most try to eliminate losers buy getting very selective and having larger bets, great until a losing run comes and then for the majority your judgement changes and slightly marginal bets that you would take when riding a high are left out, they invariably win and you cement in loses, further buggering your mental game.Punting is largely mental toughness, it’s what undoes most and why they don’t win.

Think about this approach: turnover is key, how many times can you turnover the same  money on a Saturday, have smaller bets but plenty of them. I have given you 2 non form approaches above, here’s another that works and applies the opposite thinking to what the BP would suggest.

Look up the racing multi section of the TAB there they have the opening fixed price and they show the market changes, look for single figure openers (Below $8) that have drifted into double figures, pure gold winning Blue Print there. 

Edited December 1, 2018 by barryb

[hesi]

Great thread thanks

Further to VC's post about assessing form, how do you allow for undisclosed form, such as how well a horse is working.

In Barry's post

 "Yesterday Espresso Martini at Ellerslie had heaps on it early which suggests a sharp punter had done the form, back it fixed elsewhere when first noticed and you are ahead of the steam."

Would this not have been a case of people associated with the horse, knowing how well it was doing, and punting it early, as opposed to a sharp punter doing the form

[barryb]

10 minutes ago, hesi said:

Great thread thanks

Further to VC's post about assessing form, how do you allow for undisclosed form, such as how well a horse is working.

In Barry's post

 "Yesterday Espresso Martini at Ellerslie had heaps on it early which suggests a sharp punter had done the form, back it fixed elsewhere when first noticed and you are ahead of the steam."

Would this not have been a case of people associated with the horse, knowing how well it was doing, and punting it early, as opposed to a sharp punter doing the form

Undisclosed Form: You can only work with what is known, unlike the Blinkers on and those other nut theories.

Espresso Martini: Early on BF is 10mins before the race & yes it could well be people associated with the horse, but again you are getting market intel that the general public are not. But in the majority of cases it will be sharp punters taking value everywhere, what idiots like our friend dont understand is that you dont have to bet with just the one outlet, most bookies will let you get set for $100 regardless of price, do that across TABS, bookies and BF. Obviously the shorter the odds the more you can get set for, just to spell that out clearly for our looney friend.

Edited December 1, 2018 by barryb

[mardigras]

A good pointer is definitely price. The majority of punters likely return 85 - 95% of their investment. So obtaining an extra 10-15% every time you bet can be enough to change that dramatically.

To respond to VC! 

laying at 1.01. - it may work but the question you may have to ask is, what will you do after 200 or 300 races of losses where the 1.01 horse wins. I do see them lose, but don't know how frequently. I saw one at 1.02 yesterday that lost. If that interests you, it is easy to test. I'd call that punting on the inability of other punters to read the race.

form - what is form? In the media, the norm is to take a horse and assess its performance comparatively to the horses it raced against and then try and identify where the parameters of this race will bring it closer to being the winner. If that works, great. I don't trust the horses last start(s) are necessarily the best indicator of what it will do this start.

down in class - individual to a degree. But on the discussion on this site, not so much. As races have defined 'class' levels. Black Type down through grades. It is a useless and unrelated factor because the horse doesn't know what class it raced in. So if the race is a G1 but they race in the same fashion as a maiden race, the horse that finishes 1 length from the winner and then races in a maiden, is not superior performance in superior class. It is just a performance the equivalent of a maiden.

I price every runner - if I don't, how do I know the prices of the 'better' runners are accurate? 

6 hours ago, VC! said:

When assessing the form do you need to assess every horse in the race?

Obviously you abide and apply a set of principles to each runner then set the prices to 100% then you compare your market to the actual market to find value

What principles are a given

Track conditions

Distance

Starts at the track

Fresh up record, how many starts into its prep is its best performance 

Jockey / change of jockey

Pace or lack of it in the race

Barrier draw

Age?

Class rise or drop based on your own opinion

Time the horse ran eg a horse winning in 55.7 at Hawkesbury over 1000mtrs doesn’t mean it’s going to measure up against a horse say that wins in 56.9 over 1000mtrs at Randwick

Which are the most important above and which are irrelevant and have I missed any of note

Most of those are just personal considerations. There is no right or wrong. I would say this, none of them are important - if the consideration is applied in a general sense. Punting is about the individual horse, not the collective. If you assess the factor is important to THIS horse, then use it. If it is a factor you think applies to horses generally, my advice would be to ignore it. Generalisations about what works in form are going to lead you to where Thomass is. At the poor farm.

On the last point about time. I use time a lot. But not time from one performance. Without considering anything else, in your example, the Randwick horse would likely have greater ability.

 

[Fred]

Best advice is to read the Best Bets [or whatever] after the race -that way you can figure out why the horse won and learn accordingly.

[barryb]

Just to further on that Hesi for undisclosed form.

I will happily take the TABs opening fixed price as my price for undisclosed form or first starters, I dont have time or the desire to bother researching like that have.

[barryb]

4 minutes ago, mardigras said:

A good pointer is definitely price. The majority of punters likely return 85 - 95% of their investment. So obtaining an extra 10-15% every time you bet can be enough to change that dramatically.

To respond to VC! 

laying at 1.01. - it may work but the question you may have to ask is, what will you do after 200 or 300 races of losses where the 1.01 horse wins. I do see them lose, but don't know how frequently. I saw one at 1.02 yesterday that lost. If that interests you, it is easy to test. I'd call that punting on the inability of other punters to read the race.

form - what is form? In the media, the norm is to take a horse and assess its performance comparatively to the horses it raced against and then try and identify where the parameters of this race will bring it closer to being the winner. If that works, great. I don't trust the horses last start(s) are necessarily the best indicator of what it will do this start.

down in class - individual to a degree. But on the discussion on this site, not so much. As races have defined 'class' levels. Black Type down through grades. It is a useless and unrelated factor because the horse doesn't know what class it raced in. So if the race is a G1 but they race in the same fashion as a maiden race, the horse that finishes 1 length from the winner and then races in a maiden, is not superior performance in superior class. It is just a performance the equivalent of a maiden.

I price every runner - if I don't, how do I know the prices of the 'better' runners are accurate? 

Most of those are just personal considerations. There is no right or wrong. I would say this, none of them are important - if the consideration is applied in a general sense. Punting is about the individual horse, not the collective. If you assess the factor is important to THIS horse, then use it. If it is a factor you think applies to horses generally, my advice would be to ignore it. Generalisations about what works in form are going to lead you to where Thomass is. At the poor farm.

On the last point about time. I use time a lot. But not time from one performance. Without considering anything else, in your example, the Randwick horse would likely have greater ability.

 

Probably the most important post for anyone wanting to be sucessful seen on any racing site this year.

Form: I am with Mardi, I largely ignore the last 3 starts as like Mardi says they DO NOT convey fitness or a great indicator of the likely performance. an idiot on here laughed at me for stating this.

Excellent post Mardi, re read it 10 times guys.

[mardigras]

15 minutes ago, hesi said:

Great thread thanks

Further to VC's post about assessing form, how do you allow for undisclosed form, such as how well a horse is working.

As barryb said, you can only assess on what you know. If a horse is punted hugely, then by the time you know that and think they MUST know something, you've likely lost price advantage.

I like being different. I'm quite happy to take market drifters.

I contributed to a book and the chapter I was involved in was about insider trading in racing markets. It concluded that there was around a 15% impact due to 'knowledgeable' insider trading (from memory). That would have likely changed with the massive shift to fixed odds betting. So the level of insider trading on the tote is likely less although the impact probably still remains. The price changes there are likely as a result of the general public following the fixed price moves (some of which will be caused by insider trading).

[mardigras]

17 minutes ago, Fred said:

Best advice is to read the Best Bets [or whatever] after the race -that way you can figure out why the horse won and learn accordingly.

That's been shown to work here Fred. Thomass does that.

[barryb]

2 hours ago, barryb said:

ie: Ted from BGP is obviously a sharp punter, back his longer priced first picks and get say 10% better odds than he suggests and you will probably will be in front. He’s done the form, you do the price shopping.

 

Just to clarify this further as well, Ted knows his horses yes but often this doesn't translate into winning a thing long term (I dont know whether Ted does or doesn't), having stacks of winners and knowing horses can be of NO use at all if you cant get better than average pricing about a winner more often than not.

Betting with an egde also doesn't guarantee you will win long term either.

Both of these factors are lost on our friend as well.

Edited December 1, 2018 by barryb

[VC!]

Thanks for your reply/reply’s 

 

[SLB2.0]

I would also ignore the comments from trainers and especially commentators. Trainers will often pump up the tyres because no owner wants to hear a negative thing said about their horse.

Commentators are not professional tipsters, despite what Trackside wants you to believe. They look more at the horse, as opposed to the value and/or betting situation.

Even know I get paid by people reading my tips, you should do your own research - take the time to understand why a horse is being tipped. Don't just blindly back the favourite because "everyone" else is. Everyone else will eventually lose their money punting.

[FeelTheFear]

4 hours ago, barryb said:

Ok how about this FTF, punting is a game of opposites, what you are suggesting is what most do and what do most do? LOSE.

Most try to eliminate losers buy getting very selective and having larger bets, great until a losing run comes and then for the majority your judgement changes and slightly marginal bets that you would take when riding a high are left out, they invariably win and you cement in loses, further buggering your mental game.Punting is largely mental toughness, it’s what undoes most and why they don’t win.

Think about this approach: turnover is key, how many times can you turnover the same  money on a Saturday, have smaller bets but plenty of them. I have given you 2 non form approaches above, here’s another that works and applies the opposite thinking to what the BP would suggest.

Look up the racing multi section of the TAB there they have the opening fixed price and they show the market changes, look for single figure openers (Below $8) that have drifted into double figures, pure gold winning Blue Print there. 

Thanks mate, appreciate your insight. I never chase losses and have a betting strategy that allows for wins and losses automatically, based upon the bank.

I look for the horses that have ability and try and assess current likely fitness. I also look at low mileage maidens. I try to get a feel for what a horse might do. Does it race on the pace? Does it race well fresh? Has it had a recent trial to prepare if fresh? Does it show fighting spirit? Can it finish off races? etc. Blinkers, weight etc I don't worry about. I may take notice of track conditions if enough runs show a preference. Three wins from 5 starts on a good track means bugger all if a horse hasn't raced on other track conditions. Twenty races down the road, that 3 wins (60%) is now 15%. Many things I make a mental note of to get an overall appreciation of the horses profile. 

I am working on times. Comparison between tracks and track conditions are a challenge. 

Official class of race I ignore. A Group 3 may be the same group of horses running around in a B82 or less. How the horse raced in that G3 is far more important. Did it race up to it's ability? 

I am still struggling to frame a market and the best way to go about it. 

 

Just some quick thoughts. 

[barryb]

Read this mate, good guide on how to do it.

https://www.horseracinginfo.com.au/betting-guide/framing-your-own-market.htm

[Tonkatime!]

2 minutes ago, barryb said:

Read this mate, good guide on how to do it.

https://www.horseracinginfo.com.au/betting-guide/framing-your-own-market.htm

Thanks for that, that’s very useful.