Jump to content
NOTICE TO BOAY'ers: Major Update Coming ×
Bit Of A Yarn

Punting 1.01


mardigras

Recommended Posts

Couple of great posts there VC. 

One thing I like about using APIs to bet is that there are no ifs or buts. It meets price or it doesn't 

If you use an algorithm, that's fine. But if the algorithm is flawed, then it won't matter how disciplined you are, you'll lose. I have been demonstrating that with the blue print for some time.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Couple of great posts there VC. 

One thing I like about using APIs to bet is that there are no ifs or buts. It meets price or it doesn't 

If you use an algorithm, that's fine. But if the algorithm is flawed, then it won't matter how disciplined you are, you'll lose. I have been demonstrating that with the blue print for some time.

A horror post right here

Your demo...which incidently replicated sfa of what moi does...

then proceeded to 'invest' on 6 horses in one race..FLAT STAKE

...and you think anyone does that

CLUELESS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of my main approaches to punting is that if you can't win from level stakes, there isn't going to be a staking plan that can help you overall since every bet placed should be able to be part of a sequence that is ultimately profit. So whether you back one horse or 6 horses, level stakes should still win for you. Otherwise you are throwing money away on something that is not value.

Some won't understand that. But that is at the very essence of punting to value.

Also, laying is essentially the same as backing albeit to usually massively tighter margins - which is what makes it more difficult and takes more skill imo. You can lay horses on NZ TAB if you want. Backing and laying are essentially one and the same thing. When you lay a runner in a win market, all you are doing is backing all the other runners to win in that market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting thread, not sure it needs to be this complex. 

As far as lay betting goes on betfair, try this simple criteria. 

Select fav paying less than $3 on betfair, lay  all selections to win $100 that fit below requirements. 

1, Dont lay maidens

2, Dont lay races less than 1400m

3, Dont lay horses that have won in last 3 starts. 

4, Dont lay horses that have had less than 5 race starts. 

No need for laptop and programmes, long term proven results, try over xmas and thank me. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Portfolio said:

Interesting thread, not sure it needs to be this complex. 

As far as lay betting goes on betfair, try this simple criteria. 

Select fav paying less than $3 on betfair, lay  all selections to win $100 that fit below requirements. 

1, Dont lay maidens

2, Dont lay races less than 1400m

3, Dont lay horses that have won in last 3 starts. 

4, Dont lay horses that have had less than 5 race starts. 

No need for laptop and programmes, long term proven results, try over xmas and thank me. 

 

Have you tried this? I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. You'd have to be laying before race is about to start and at odds below starting price on betfair imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Have you tried this? I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. You'd have to be laying before race is about to start and at odds below starting price on betfair imo.

Fair enough, thought you might say that. 

Yes, started using end of Jan 2018  until now. Started account $5k, 20% up, account now $6k. Not big in the scheme of things, sometimes go a week or two without betting, but intend to up my betting over xmas. 

Must add, only bet on metro races on aussie sat meetings, pretty strict to placing bets 10 mins before race. Also, forgot to add, if the fav meets criteria, but is a noted front runner, I do not bet. 

I want to upgrade car early next year, so lets see

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Portfolio said:

Fair enough, thought you might say that. 

Yes, started using end of Jan 2018  until now. Started account $5k, 20% up, account now $6k. Not big in the scheme of things, sometimes go a week or two without betting, but intend to up my betting over xmas. 

Must add, only bet on metro races on aussie sat meetings, pretty strict to placing bets 10 mins before race. Also, forgot to add, if the fav meets criteria, but is a noted front runner, I do not bet. 

I want to upgrade car early next year, so lets see

thats a lot of punting and time to win $1k...$5 to win on Winx in the Cox Plate woulda got you the same result a whole lot quicker.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Portfolio said:

Interesting thread, not sure it needs to be this complex. 

As far as lay betting goes on betfair, try this simple criteria. 

Select fav paying less than $3 on betfair, lay  all selections to win $100 that fit below requirements. 

1, Dont lay maidens

2, Dont lay races less than 1400m

3, Dont lay horses that have won in last 3 starts. 

4, Dont lay horses that have had less than 5 race starts. 

No need for laptop and programmes, long term proven results, try over xmas and thank me. 

 

That's what you don't lay. But what do you lay?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One for the Sports punters 

My two sports are NRL and Golf

I Bet 8 months of the year March through October I set myself a goal to make 20 Units profit over the 8 months

A unit can be whatever denomination you want it to be

I target 5 bets over the weekend target price is $1-90 to obtain $1-90 I will take the line in the NRL or H2H in the golf you have to be quick with the golf as these are targeted as soon as the markets are up

With the golf you look for a golfer who generally plays that course well who is up against someone who doesn’t play that course as well they also need to be in reasonable form

NRL well you generally get a feel about games certain players out certain come back when really large lines are offered check the weather forecast 

The goal is to get 3 out of your 5 selections correct this means you need to have a strike rate of60%

Getting 3 right will return you 1-90 1-90 1-90 which equates to 5.7 units level stake you have invested 5 units and made 0.7 of a unit profit of course some weeks you might get less some more the goal is to get minimum 3 out of 5 

I done this this year just gone my goal was to get 20 units profit I came up short 18.7 units profit I obtained ....my Unit stake was 1k so Imade 18.7k profit next year I will increase to 2 Uints

If you read sport well and think you can have a strike rate of around 60% it could be worth having a crack of course you could start with a stake much lower

Edited by VC!
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The issue I would have following anything even remotely like this Portfolio is that what you describe is just another form of the blue print. Call it blue print II. This one being a "betting data" based blue print on supposed trends. Versus a more generic "horse" based blue print.

When betting this year, have you changed/added/removed any of your 'factors/criteria'. If so, why?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, mardigras said:

The issue I would have following anything even remotely like this Portfolio is that what you describe is just another form of the blue print. Call it blue print II. This one being a "betting data" based blue print on supposed trends. Versus a more generic "horse" based blue print.

When betting this year, have you changed/added/removed any of your 'factors/criteria'. If so, why?

Correct, 

Tracked results for 6 months before started betting. 

No, changed nothing. Sometimes people just get far to complicated in their ways to win. Just remember, its more of fun to me, all about having a bet on a sat. It could well be a flop longterm, hard to be 100% sure, as i could go week or two without looking. Xmas time will be where i find out. 

All the advice on here is good, but not everybody walks around with laptop looking at odds 24/7. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Portfolio said:

Correct, 

Tracked results for 6 months before started betting. 

No, changed nothing. Sometimes people just get far to complicated in their ways to win. Just remember, its more of fun to me, all about having a bet on a sat. It could well be a flop longterm, hard to be 100% sure, as i could go week or two without looking. Xmas time will be where i find out. 

All the advice on here is good, but not everybody walks around with laptop looking at odds 24/7. 

 

Fun is fine. But based on the data I have, it will be a loser long term (which is actually logical). At starting divs (not 10 minutes prior), it was a big loser this year for the 43 weeks of the year I have data for. (excluding the 'noted front runner' criteria of which that is subjective, so I can't use that).

I have 223 horses meeting that criteria for 105 winners, losing $1028 to a $100 lay (so exposure laying), excluding commission from winning bets. Happy to provide the list of runners/prices. 

And laying them all to win $100 loses as well.

Edited by mardigras
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Fun is fine. But based on the data I have, it will be a loser long term (which is actually logical). At starting divs (not 10 minutes prior), it was a big loser this year for the 43 weeks of the year I have data for. (excluding the 'noted front runner' criteria of which that is subjective, so I can't use that).

I have 223 horses meeting that criteria for 105 winners, losing $1028 to a $100 lay (so exposure laying), excluding commission from winning bets. Happy to provide the list of runners/prices. 

And laying them all to win $100 loses as well.

...that's great to know you're allowing 'fun' oh Supreme Leader...

Can you run this "gold BP" through ya inner workings bot...Cheers

Ted from BGP is obviously a sharp punter, back his longer priced first picks and get say 10% better odds than he suggests and you will probably will be in front. He’s done the form, you do the price shopping.

BF is a super market lead for Aust or even now NZ, Yesterday Espresso Martini at Ellerslie had heaps on it early which suggests a sharp punter had done the form, back it fixed elsewhere when first noticed and you are ahead of the steam.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Fun is fine. But based on the data I have, it will be a loser long term (which is actually logical). At starting divs (not 10 minutes prior), it was a big loser this year for the 43 weeks of the year I have data for. (excluding the 'noted front runner' criteria of which that is subjective, so I can't use that).

I have 223 horses meeting that criteria for 105 winners, losing $1028 to a $100 lay (so exposure laying), excluding commission from winning bets. Happy to provide the list of runners/prices. 

And laying them all to win $100 loses as well.

How can you do calculations when i have stated not every week i bet? Also, how do you know what aus sat  metro meetings i bet on? 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Portfolio said:

 

As far as lay betting goes on betfair, try this simple criteria. 

 

Not sure I needed to know what metro meetings or when you bet, since you said 'try this'. 

I tried it, based on your criteria and found it was not good. Now you say there is more criteria in order for it to work.

When you trialled it for six months, how did you work out which weeks in the future it would work for?

Edited by mardigras
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Mooncoin said:

Quick question Thomas, what would your units typically transpire into $$ wise?

Cheers

Take the 3 Ex Northern neddys who won as per the BP...

I start off with these NI form gems at 2 units...increased his for a proven track record....less convictions since the superior form...and Blnkers first time in his 53 start career...

IN XX's case I added extra units for its very unlucky last start performance on Prem day in a large field...Its not only about the superior form component being analysed but rubber stamping that form in other races

I valued her at 6 units...the value being 12's...got her at 14's...so the exponential factor kicks in wrt more units being invested...

...and of course you'll notice the 'undisclosed' form in some of these horses going to different environments...it gives them an added boost...just as travelling to Australia can

...boys into men

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said:

actually plastic coins from the toy shop, like his Princess

Your bff grasshead is doing you a massive disservice 

In fact it verges on abhorrent 

Complimenting you on your approach to things PUNTING...

"I noticed it was running on...should improve with that"..et el

As grassi says..."ok if you want fun"

But it's doomed to fail...the best Pros all have algorithmic processes...as I've posted

Can you sycophants not read?

He said he "hasn't got the answers"

Bazz "follow Ted...if a neddy opens up short and drifts...get on"

ffs

WAKE THE F UP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Not sure I needed to know what metro meetings or when you bet, since you said 'try this'. 

I tried it, based on your criteria and found it was not good. Now you say there is more criteria in order for it to work.

When you trialled it for six months, how did you work out which weeks in the future it would work for?

Trialed it on races i bet on, as stated, i said my  life does not revolve around laptops and stats. 

Maybe you need to read my first post, never did i say i bet on every metro meeting, never did i say i bet every weekend. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Portfolio said:

Trialed it on races i bet on, as stated, i said my  life does not revolve around laptops and stats. 

Maybe you need to read my first post, never did i say i bet on every metro meeting, never did i say i bet every weekend. 

Ignore him mate

He's a freaken obcessive compulsive maniac without a SOH trying to tell Punters when they can fart...

...and I always do it in his general direction

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...