Assessing Horses

[hesi]

Alright then, you guys have done an awesome job of rating the Bonecrusher Stakes field, but a bit more meat on the bone, how are you assessing horses in the first place?

There is a an interesting race at Waipukurau today, R3.

2 horses

Not Santa - ran second on debut, to a horse Lodhi, that ran a close second yesterday in a strong field at Trentham

Scorch - last start 6th to a horse that ran second in the Bonecrusher Stakes, also ran  second last in the Karaka million

How do you rate the comparative performances of those 2 horses, and what other starters can you rate as a chance

 

Edited December 8, 2018 by hesi

[barryb]

Hesi, firstly mate its a dreadful race to be looking at.  Secondly, stop looking at the horses last start and trying to assess its chances on that basis, the vast majority do that and they do the same as Thomarse, LOSE.

Look at race 6 today, The fav is a crazy price, plenty of great bets in that race.

[Huey]

Good call BarryB this happens a lot in the CD when usually when there is an F Auret runner  with Parkes up. I like the 8 for some e/w value in that race.

The other race you speak of the 11 also offers some great e/w value.

 

Happy punting!

[barryb]

I like it Huey, nice call on that one.

In race 6 I am going to back Keilib, haha that is the 8.

Edited December 8, 2018 by barryb

[FeelTheFear]

7 minutes ago, Huey said:

Good call BarryB this happens a lot in the CD when usually when there is an F Auret runner  with Parkes up. I like the 8 for some e/w value in that race.

The other race you speak of the 11 also offers some great e/w value.

 

Happy punting!

Hard one to rate but looking at my assessment Not Santa is on top but too short for mine. Two for value, Floral Belt and Sassanach. 

If I was to have a bet Sassanach would be the one

[Docker]

Hi All. Hard race to assess with not much exposed form.
For what it's worth, I set my market @ 130% and look for value

[01]    $1.80     Not Santa
[02]    $7.50     Scorch 
[03]    $9.00     Brantford 
[06]    $16.80     Glide Queen
[07]    $12.00     Floral Belt
[08]    $7.90     Sassenach 
[09]    $11.20     Carazzi 
[10]    $11.60     Get The Treat
[11]    $12.40     Happy Tav

Top Jockey(s)
 
Johnathan Parkes [01] 2 Not Santa 57kg 
Jason Waddell [08] 7 Sassenach 57kg 

[03] Brantford - first up 4th ran quickest 600 to smart horse.
[02] Scorch - 2 of last 3 starts have been in stronger stakes races.
[01] Not Santa - only runner to place left handed.

Bet 2 units on Not Santa to win @ 2.20 (nz tab)
Bet 1 unit on Brantford to place @3.10

[N1MUE]

I couldn't have Kellib - has won only 4 from 38 starts, hasn't run for a month, hasn't finished within 3.5 lengths of the winner in the past year (8 runs), jockey wins one in around 20-25 starts, track probably too firm.

Commanding Prince should win - impatient ride last time and gets a big jockey upgrade today and 3rd run back from a spell.  I'd take $2 but maybe not $1.80.

My bet for the day is in the first - H2H Cameo paying $2.13 to finish ahead of Akela Belle.  Cameo didn't get any favours last start - lost ground and momentum coming up to the home turn and then no room in the straight.  

[hesi]

22 minutes ago, Docker said:

Hi All. Hard race to assess with not much exposed form.
For what it's worth, I set my market @ 130% and look for value

[01]    $1.80     Not Santa
[02]    $7.50     Scorch 
[03]    $9.00     Brantford 
[06]    $16.80     Glide Queen
[07]    $12.00     Floral Belt
[08]    $7.90     Sassenach 
[09]    $11.20     Carazzi 
[10]    $11.60     Get The Treat
[11]    $12.40     Happy Tav

Top Jockey(s)
 
Johnathan Parkes [01] 2 Not Santa 57kg 
Jason Waddell [08] 7 Sassenach 57kg 

[03] Brantford - first up 4th ran quickest 600 to smart horse.
[02] Scorch - 2 of last 3 starts have been in stronger stakes races.
[01] Not Santa - only runner to place left handed.

Bet 2 units on Not Santa to win @ 2.20 (nz tab)
Bet 1 unit on Brantford to place @3.10

Thanks Docker, and welcome to Bit of a Yarn

Gee there is a lot of expertise lurking behind many of these people posting

Edited December 9, 2018 by hesi

[hesi]

16 minutes ago, N1MUE said:

I couldn't have Kellib - has won only 4 from 38 starts, hasn't run for a month, hasn't finished within 3.5 lengths of the winner in the past year (8 runs), jockey wins one in around 20-25 starts, track probably too firm.

Commanding Prince should win - impatient ride last time and gets a big jockey upgrade today and 3rd run back from a spell.  I'd take $2 but maybe not $1.80.

My bet for the day is in the first - H2H Cameo paying $2.13 to finish ahead of Akela Belle.  Cameo didn't get any favours last start - lost ground and momentum coming up to the home turn and then no room in the straight.  

Gazzac posted a day or so ago, that he is a part owner of Akela Belle

[FeelTheFear]

Sassanach has come in from $9.50 to $6.50 Bet Easy FO.

[FeelTheFear]

Brantford has come in from $17/18 to $9.00 Bet Easy FO

[N1MUE]

57 minutes ago, N1MUE said:

 

My bet for the day is in the first - H2H Cameo paying $2.13 to finish ahead of Akela Belle.  Cameo didn't get any favours last start - lost ground and momentum coming up to the home turn and then no room in the straight.  

Shocker ?

[Newmarket]

1 hour ago, FeelTheFear said:

Hard one to rate but looking at my assessment Not Santa is on top but too short for mine. Two for value, Floral Belt and Sassanach. 

If I was to have a bet Sassanach would be the one

Agree, got Sassanach $7-50, rated it $5

[Newmarket]

5 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

Agree, got Sassanach $7-50, rated it $5

Ha. I see now why i dont usually bet on nz gallops, will stick to nz harness and aus gallops. 

[barryb]

Just now, Newmarket said:

Ha. I see now why i dont usually bet on nz gallops, will stick to nz harness and aus gallops. 

Why?.

You got it at nice overs, you dont expect everyone to win do you?.

At $7.50 its a 13% chance.

[FeelTheFear]

First and third. Glide Queen I had rated equal 4th

[mardigras]

Can't see anything myself in the 6th that is enough value for me to bet on. Closest would be Serenity for me but would need to go out to about $9-$10.

As far as assessing a horse goes, I don't look at last start any more than other starts. I am looking to build up a view of the horse's ability and under what conditions it seems to present it's ability best to try and work out how each horse sits relative to the horses it's racing against. I don't think there is necessarily a right way, but my expectation would be that focusing on the most recent start is unlikely to present many options as value since most punters are assessing horses in a similar way to that.

[N1MUE]

3 hours ago, hesi said:

Gazzac posted a day or so ago, that he is a part owner of Akela Belle

Yeah I saw that, but the owner is not something I factor in to my betting decisions - perhaps I should have on this occasion

Commanding Prince drifted out to a respectable $2.20 ($2 on FF).  I can see why the jockey of Keilib only rides a winner every 20-25 rides.

 

[Newmarket]

2 hours ago, barryb said:

Why?.

You got it at nice overs, you dont expect everyone to win do you?.

At $7.50 its a 13% chance.

No, not everyone to win, just me?

[Docker]

43 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Can't see anything myself in the 6th that is enough value for me to bet on. Closest would be Serenity for me but would need to go out to about $9-$10.

As far as assessing a horse goes, I don't look at last start any more than other starts. I am looking to build up a view of the horse's ability and under what conditions it seems to present it's ability best to try and work out how each horse sits relative to the horses it's racing against. I don't think there is necessarily a right way, but my expectation would be that focusing on the most recent start is unlikely to present many options as value since most punters are assessing horses in a similar way to that.

Hi mardigras. What you say is similar to the approach I take. Value in Race 7 10 Martinelli. I have it @ $3.40 to win Trained on track, good draw, weight off, jockey has won today already. $5.50 FO place. Sorry for posting late.

 

[Weasel]

5 hours ago, N1MUE said:

I couldn't have Kellib - has won only 4 from 38 starts, hasn't run for a month, hasn't finished within 3.5 lengths of the winner in the past year (8 runs), jockey wins one in around 20-25 starts, track probably too firm.

Commanding Prince should win - impatient ride last time and gets a big jockey upgrade today and 3rd run back from a spell.  I'd take $2 but maybe not $1.80.

My bet for the day is in the first - H2H Cameo paying $2.13 to finish ahead of Akela Belle.  Cameo didn't get any favours last start - lost ground and momentum coming up to the home turn and then no room in the straight.  

I reckon Gazzac would disagree with you!

[curious]

My assessment of chance is primarily based on assessment of ability especially as that relates to the conditions of the current event. That assessment is mainly based on race times. I then convert that assessment to chance though in nowhere near as sophisticated a way as mardi does.

What I don't do is give much or any weight to variables like trainer, jockey, barrier draw, carried weight, gear changes or class of race.

I don't use sectionals or speed maps either though I do give some weight to what I call "racing style".

[mardigras]

24 minutes ago, curious said:

My assessment of chance is primarily based on assessment of ability especially as that relates to the conditions of the current event. That assessment is mainly based on race times. I then convert that assessment to chance though in nowhere near as sophisticated a way as mardi does.

What I don't do is give much or any weight to variables like trainer, jockey, barrier draw, carried weight, gear changes or class of race.

I don't use sectionals or speed maps either though I do give some weight to what I call "racing style".

Interesting curious. I don't adjust chance for any of "trainer, jockey, barrier draw, carried weight, gear changes or class of race" either.

Of all those the only thing I do is not back a runner if I think the jockey is useless. More than likely an unnecessary piece of subjectivity.

[curious]

8 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Of all those the only thing I do is not back a runner if I think the jockey is useless. More than likely an unnecessary piece of subjectivity.

I probably avoid that necessity (if it is one) by only betting on meetings where it is unlikely that any "useless" jockeys are not likely to get a ride, so I trust the connections' ability to ensure that. This means that I can start from the assumption that all jockeys are equal or at least that any variance has a very small impact on overall chance and I if I'm wrong, it's because I don't know how to reliably assess that variance.

So, for example, I've been working on assessing Oz racing for a year or two now and expect to be betting there next year. To start with, I expect that will be limited to Sydney, Melbourne metro meetings where I can reasonably apply the above assumption, though the limitation is not solely for that reason.

[mardigras]

12 minutes ago, curious said:

, it's because I don't know how to reliably assess that variance.

That's why I omit it from the assessment. It's the same with the trainer. Does a trainer improve a horse and to what degree? if it's already been racing for the trainer, then there is nothing extra to assess. If it shifts to a new trainer, how do you decide whether the new trainer is able to make the horse's performance improve from what it has shown already - and even if you could, by what exactly?