Railway field

[Weasel]

the Railway often throws up roughies who seem out of their depth but run the race of their lives ...

if you're looking for a value place bet, Santa Monica $71 and $12 FO appeals to me. Consistent and honest, has run against and finished ahead of Princess Kereru before...no weight, experienced jockey, a draw to get a smother and if the gaps come and it gets an uninterrupted passage home, could lob into the money. On class alone, its between Bostonian and Melody Belle for me. Hopefully the jockeys on Ferrando and Gift Of Power wont f**k it all up with a muddling tempo that causes midfield/back runners problems settling into a rhythm.

[curious]

16 hours ago, mardigras said:

Agreed to help a mate out with some house reno. Been pretty busy and buggered from that!. Putting up some gib tomorrow. Hope to get some time to see a few races. 

Is your mate called Thomass? I know he needs help and has also been MIA during the period of your renovation activities

[mardigras]

18 minutes ago, curious said:

Is your mate called Thomass? I know he needs help and has also been MIA during the period of your renovation activities

Yeah - although I am probably the last person he would call on for help. Maybe I could build him a little 3 x 3 unit to give him some relief from sleeping under a bridge. 

[Guest CrossCodes]

18 hours ago, Weasel said:

the Railway often throws up roughies who seem out of their depth but run the race of their lives ...

if you're looking for a value place bet, Santa Monica $71 and $12 FO appeals to me. Consistent and honest, has run against and finished ahead of Princess Kereru before...no weight, experienced jockey, a draw to get a smother and if the gaps come and it gets an uninterrupted passage home, could lob into the money. On class alone, its between Bostonian and Melody Belle for me. Hopefully the jockeys on Ferrando and Gift Of Power wont f**k it all up with a muddling tempo that causes midfield/back runners problems settling into a rhythm.

Hope you got plenty, great roughie tip.

[Newmarket]

18 hours ago, Weasel said:

the Railway often throws up roughies who seem out of their depth but run the race of their lives ...

if you're looking for a value place bet, Santa Monica $71 and $12 FO appeals to me. Consistent and honest, has run against and finished ahead of Princess Kereru before...no weight, experienced jockey, a draw to get a smother and if the gaps come and it gets an uninterrupted passage home, could lob into the money. On class alone, its between Bostonian and Melody Belle for me. Hopefully the jockeys on Ferrando and Gift Of Power wont f**k it all up with a muddling tempo that causes midfield/back runners problems settling into a rhythm.

Yeah, good picking. Santa Monica?? 

And to have a 2 win horse winning Auckland cup? I suppose it shows just how nz racing is going. 

Will a maiden win a cup race in the future the way things are going? 

Good luck to those that won on them, and good picking. But that just shows clearly why less people punt on nz racing

[Ghost]

18 hours ago, Weasel said:

the Railway often throws up roughies who seem out of their depth 

if you're looking for value Santa Monica $71 FO appeals to me. ahead of Princess Kereru and Melody Belle for me. 

Go to the top of the class!!!!

[Ronaldo]

Oh hell, rang my mum up 10 minutes before the race and told her Santa Monica would go real good and be in first 3.  Ended up not backing  it and neither did she. Was $ 101 win at F /Odds. Hard lessen to take, follow gut instinct.

[mardigras]

Great selection Weasel!

[Sandpiper]

Well done Weasel the clues were there in hindsight. Top job!

[hesi]

For so long the TAB had Melody Belle at $1.25 FF place.

Anyone who put it in their multi's at that price, must feel hard done by, as it paid $1.70 on the tote.

Poor effort on the TAB's part to offer such restrictive odds, very few would have taken anyway at that price

[mardigras]

2 hours ago, hesi said:

For so long the TAB had Melody Belle at $1.25 FF place.

Anyone who put it in their multi's at that price, must feel hard done by, as it paid $1.70 on the tote.

Poor effort on the TAB's part to offer such restrictive odds, very few would have taken anyway at that price

I can see what you are getting at. Perhaps a better example would be a horse that doesn't place.

Where the TAB let themselves down is in not taking sufficient bets due to poor pricing, allowing them the opportunity to attract customers that would otherwise not bet with them. And on the basis they price well enough for those improved odds to overall provide a decent return.

In your example, the decision to price the horse low may have been beneficial for the TAB as few would have taken the odds. So less to pay out since the horse placed.

But a horse priced at $1.25 that doesn't place where maybe the odds should have been $1.70, will result in the TAB not making much from that. So the issue is pricing across the board. They are too scared to attract decent bets by pricing more competitively. They are driving punters elsewhere - of which the most they can get from betting done elsewhere, is a form of race fields fees. But lost ongoing business where they should be able to take a bigger slice of the punter pie than what race fields fees would deliver.

They prefer to blame the competition, when the reality is, they have made their bed and it seems, they don't want to sleep in it.

[hesi]

Firstly, 3 admissions, I only bet with the TAB, secondly, horror of horrors, I mainly like to do the all up place betting mainly with faves, starting with $200, I only bet for a bit of excitement.  The only other bet type is $50 win. so Rock On was good.

The TAB cramp their FF place odds on faves so much, 1.15, 1.20 etc, that it is not worth it.

The problem is, if you go with the tote and usually get a better price(Melody Belle), then that limits you to the same meeting.  You must go with a Multi to select across different meetings.

With regard to what you say above, many times the TAB price faves at cramped place FF odds, and the horse misses a place.  But as you say, very few would have been on at 1.15, so they are not actively trying to entice you and actually act like bookmakers

[curious]

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

I can see what you are getting at. Perhaps a better example would be a horse that doesn't place.

Where the TAB let themselves down is in not taking sufficient bets due to poor pricing, allowing them the opportunity to attract customers that would otherwise not bet with them. And on the basis they price well enough for those improved odds to overall provide a decent return.

In your example, the decision to price the horse low may have been beneficial for the TAB as few would have taken the odds. So less to pay out since the horse placed.

But a horse priced at $1.25 that doesn't place where maybe the odds should have been $1.70, will result in the TAB not making much from that. So the issue is pricing across the board. They are too scared to attract decent bets by pricing more competitively. They are driving punters elsewhere - of which the most they can get from betting done elsewhere, is a form of race fields fees. But lost ongoing business where they should be able to take a bigger slice of the punter pie than what race fields fees would deliver.

They prefer to blame the competition, when the reality is, they have made their bed and it seems, they don't want to sleep in it.

You can say that again. Don't usually bet there but had a few bets at Santa Anita this morning. Managed to back the winner of the 5th at nice overs. Paid $28 (for $2) on the tote. TAB were offering $11 and had the market set to 129.5% just before the start. US racing may not attract a lot of interest here but what's the point of bothering if they don't even try to compete on price?

[mardigras]

4 hours ago, hesi said:

Firstly, 3 admissions, I only bet with the TAB, secondly, horror of horrors, I mainly like to do the all up place betting mainly with faves, starting with $200, I only bet for a bit of excitement.  The only other bet type is $50 win. so Rock On was good.

The TAB cramp their FF place odds on faves so much, 1.15, 1.20 etc, that it is not worth it.

The problem is, if you go with the tote and usually get a better price(Melody Belle), then that limits you to the same meeting.  You must go with a Multi to select across different meetings.

With regard to what you say above, many times the TAB price faves at cramped place FF odds, and the horse misses a place.  But as you say, very few would have been on at 1.15, so they are not actively trying to entice you and actually act like bookmakers

I know what you do is just for fun. But to be frank, you therefore have to take what they offer. Taking multi's is probably the worst single bet type you can do unless you are getting overs each time. If you have a horse paying 20s that is overs, and then you multi it with a horse paying $1.25 that is well unders, you've lost your advantage.

Outside of the fun aspect you talk of, you'd do better just to back what you like at the 20s (overs) and ignore the $1.25 (unders). Or put the bet on the overs and multi the return onto the tote (if that is perceived as overs).

A multi involving a selection that is unders is simply diluting your advantage. And from a profit standpoint, should be ignored.

[curious]

The other problem with multis is that they often amount to a seriously flawed staking plan which means you have way over your usual stake on the second , third or later runners in the multi, even if all are are value and at overs. In my view, place multis are worse because the FO prices make it much harder to find the overs that you might find on a win bet.

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by curious

[barryb]

However manually doing a multi is an outstanding way to bet and allows you to capitalise on overs, withdraw, change bet size etc. It does require some discipline but is worth the extra effort.

As Curious mentions most multi lock in unders early in the day and place bet ones produce horrific edges for the TAB. You would be far better taking win multi with the option of any 2,3,4 etc.

Multi’s are though a far better option than taking out dated product bets like Doubles, Trebles, Place 6, Pick 6  that produce divis often way below what a fixed odd multi would with a little effort.

[Tonkatime!]

4 hours ago, barryb said:

 

Multi’s are though a far better option than taking out dated product bets like Doubles, Trebles, Place 6, Pick 6  that produce divis often way below what a fixed odd multi would with a little effort.

How much of that do you put down to the fact there are so many of these options per meeting now?

My thoughts without any reasearch into it would be that with 2 quaddies 3 trebles 4 or 5 doubles  and a place 6 per meeting all that it happening is that the pools are being diluted. 

[barryb]

5 minutes ago, Tonkatime! said:

How much of that do you put down to the fact there are so many of these options per meeting now?

My thoughts without any reasearch into it would be that with 2 quaddies 3 trebles 4 or 5 doubles  and a place 6 per meeting all that it happening is that the pools are being diluted. 

Pool sizes dictate it, fixed odds has destroyed tote style bets.