Ben from Betcha?

[Gammalite]

1 hour ago, the galah said:

i thought it was pretty hard to have,even with the driver change.

It had finished a beaten off last,just stopping,being 40 lengths,6 lengths and 40 lengths behind the second last horses in its last 3 starts.

i think opening it at $30 most probably had priced the driver change in. 

well done if you backed it,your a punting genius today.

haha someone should pay you $30 just to consider backing those 'one win per year' horses. 😆. good to see someone supporting them though but not hard to see why 90% of people punting on these things lose their money.

I've got a special for you Mr Galah . you're a good judge who does know a good horse when you see one ,that is actually worth investing on.  100-1 Leap To Fame. you're a big chance.

He won brilliantly last night yet again . burying them off starting off a 30m handicap over the short 2100m . 

you're asking how do we get 100-1. ?  

well I went along last night to see him go and Grant said he has the winner of the Rising Sun as well . FATE AWAITS. he won quite brilliantly last night too. ( and won this time last year in 1.50 as a 2 year-old) he is certainly the real deal.

Our Best trainer driver here Pete McMullen also won with Fast trotter GUS. Gus waltzing away from them in a 2100m stand off 30m as well. Not an easy feat by any stretch of the imagination. Pete said he has him 'cherry ripe for the Interdominion'  trot home town advantage next month. Make no mistake, without the defending Champion The Locomotive nor Keayang Zahara attending this Interdom Trot , he is a huge chance.

so there you go. 

I've only put a tenner on so far to win 1000 but will likely take more. ( plus some Emma Stewart and the Janitor savers)

Fate Awaits ($7.00 in the Rising Sun July5th) x GUS ($11.00 for the Interdomion trot Grand Final July 19th)

into Leap To Fame  ( $1.30 for the Interdominion Pacers Grand Final July 19th) 

7 x 11 x 1.3 = 100-1  riding on Leap To Fame . you won't get that everyday 😆. our winning Fate Awaits lol 😉💰 

don't say I don't look after you  . better keep it quiet from the Brodster though 😉.

 

[Nowornever]

2 hours ago, the galah said:

i thought it was pretty hard to have,even with the driver change.

It had finished a beaten off last,just stopping,being 40 lengths,6 lengths and 40 lengths behind the second last horses in its last 3 starts.

i think opening it at $30 most probably had priced the driver change in. 

well done if you backed it,your a punting genius today.

John Dunn has driven it now 6 times for three wins and three good runs from terrible draws  I remember an interview with Lionel Dobbs after the first of the Dunn wins where he said it was going too well for me to drive it so I thought I better put John on. I backed it on the premise he might be doing the same again. If the bookies were any good they would have had it sub 10.00 on opening just in case. The driver change alone without the background info should have made it sub 15.00 on opening.

[Nowornever]

37 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

haha someone should pay you $30 just to consider backing those 'one win per year' horses. 😆. good to see someone supporting them though but not hard to see why 90% of people punting on these things lose their money.

I've got a special for you Mr Galah . you're a good judge who does know a good horse when you see one ,that is actually worth investing on.  100-1 Leap To Fame. you're a big chance.

He won brilliantly last night yet again . burying them off starting off a 30m handicap over the short 2100m . 

you're asking how do we get 100-1. ?  

well I went along last night to see him go and Grant said he has the winner of the Rising Sun as well . FATE AWAITS. he won quite brilliantly last night too. ( and won this time last year in 1.50 as a 2 year-old) he is certainly the real deal.

Our Best trainer driver here Pete McMullen also won with Fast trotter GUS. Gus waltzing away from them in a 2100m stand off 30m as well. Not an easy feat by any stretch of the imagination. Pete said he has him 'cherry ripe for the Interdominion'  trot home town advantage next month. Make no mistake, without the defending Champion The Locomotive nor Keayang Zahara attending this Interdom Trot , he is a huge chance.

so there you go. 

I've only put a tenner on so far to win 1000 but will likely take more. ( plus some Emma Stewart and the Janitor savers)

Fate Awaits ($7.00 in the Rising Sun July5th) x GUS ($11.00 for the Interdomion trot Grand Final July 19th)

into Leap To Fame  ( $1.30 for the Interdominion Pacers Grand Final July 19th) 

7 x 11 x 1.3 = 100-1  riding on Leap To Fame . you won't get that everyday 😆. our winning Fate Awaits lol 😉💰 

don't say I don't look after you  . better keep it quiet from the Brodster though 😉.

 

Fate Awaits probably, and Leap To Fame definite yes but hard to see how they will beat Bet N Win or Arcee Phoenox on a leaders track in the trotters final

[Gammalite]

22 minutes ago, Nowornever said:

Fate Awaits probably, and Leap To Fame definite yes but hard to see how they will beat Bet N Win or Arcee Phoenox on a leaders track in the trotters final

yes I like Bet N Win. he has had one start here in Brisvegas and won too. so hope he can win for NZ.  well worth a saver by me. thanks for the tip. 

Arcee Phoenix is a Victorian who has won 3 of his 5 starts this year , but all over Sprint distances. He's not a stayer and will get mugged in Brisbane. (in the final over distance, might win a heat though ? 🤔)

Pete McMullen is a farrier himself and has GUS right.   Gus is NZ-bred Majestic Son so is a real ripper. 

Last Winter GUS had a 10 start campaign , and bolted in 7 times including our Group2 Championship,  but broke the other 3 times 🙄. He won over the Interdom distance in the final by 4 lengths too. He is gunna be real tough to beat. 

 

[Nowornever]

34 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

yes I like Bet N Win. he has had one start here in Brisvegas and won too. so hope he can win for NZ.  well worth a saver by me. thanks for the tip. 

Arcee Phoenix is a Victorian who has won 3 of his 5 starts this year , but all over Sprint distances. He's not a stayer and will get mugged in Brisbane. (in the final over distance, might win a heat though ? 🤔)

Pete McMullen is a farrier himself and has GUS right.   Gus is NZ-bred Majestic Son so is a real ripper. 

Last Winter GUS had a 10 start campaign , and bolted in 7 times including our Group2 Championship,  but broke the other 3 times 🙄. He won over the Interdom distance in the final by 4 lengths too. He is gunna be real tough to beat. 

 

Yes Arcee Phoenix has mainly raced over sprints but did break the New Zealand record over 2200m on a slushy track beating Bet N Win when he won here in what I though was a good staying run, but 3157m might be too far.

Bet N Win proven over the distance but I think the final might come down to draws on that track so a real guess at this early stage.

[the galah]

On 4/05/2025 at 9:24 PM, Nowornever said:

As long as the Aussie guys keep doing the pricing. The gap between opening and closing odds is night and day. It is almost like the computer is doing it based on form or something.

I have never seen it so good for the punters.

ben from betcha saying moonlite blood the biggest liabilty he'd seen for a sunday meeting.

somehow the bookies  opened the horse at $23,when it should really have been about its closing price of about $5,based on its form.

it just goes to show if you have done your form and keep an eye out for when the markets come out,theres good money to be made sometimes.Maybe i should start doing that. 

I actually had it rated to win easily,but unfortunately the gap between the races went from 40 minutes to 25 minutes so i didn't back it.  I would have only backed it on the tote anyway.I'm not sure what form book the bookies used for that race.

all 4 winners have been backed in today. I suppose the whale tipped the first 2, may explain that to some extent,but its been one of those days so far when the obvious winners actually win .  Doesn't happen much i suppose.

I wonder if the bookies are on profit/loss linked wages.

 

[the galah]

8 minutes ago, the galah said:

ben from betcha saying moonlite blood the biggest liabilty he'd seen for a sunday meeting.

somehow the bookies  opened the horse at $23,when it should really have been about its closing price of about $5,based on its form.

it just goes to show if you have done your form and keep an eye out for when the markets come out,theres good money to be made sometimes.Maybe i should start doing that. 

I actually had it rated to win easily,but unfortunately the gap between the races went from 40 minutes to 25 minutes so i didn't back it.  I would have only backed it on the tote anyway.I'm not sure what form book the bookies used for that race.

all 4 winners have been backed in today. I suppose the whale tipped the first 2, may explain that to some extent,but its been one of those days so far when the obvious winners actually win .  Doesn't happen much i suppose.

I wonder if the bookies are on profit/loss linked wages.

 

well blow me down,lookslikeatrixster win after opening at $5 and blowing out to $18. 

I'm going to  give up posting on bit of a yarn as that was my bet of the day,but had nothing on as was posting on bit of a yarn and had sky my tv on delay. Bugga.

the change from 40 minutes to 25 minute gaps doesn't help either.i bet that catches a few people out and they don't get bets on.

Edited Sunday at 03:30 AM by the galah

[Rangatira]

5 minutes ago, the galah said:

 had sky my tv on delay. Bugga.

Yes un pausing and not fast forwarding fatal on 62

[Nowornever]

5 hours ago, the galah said:

somehow the bookies  opened the horse at $23,when it should really have been about its closing price of about $5,based on its form

The pricing has been terrible for years now. Never been a better time for turning a profit. Hardest part is trying not to to get banned when taking advantage. I need a bigger family group of accounts to use lol.

When they get those prices like Moonlight Blood completely wrong on opening they also get a double hit with the attention it gains through the commentators waffling on about it as well as Ben from Betcha etc. If they opened it at its true price of around 5.00 - 6.00 there would have been nowhere near as much bet on it. It may even have gone out in the odds a bit but so many noticed the move they all piled on. 

[the galah]

21 hours ago, Nowornever said:

The pricing has been terrible for years now. Never been a better time for turning a profit. Hardest part is trying not to to get banned when taking advantage. I need a bigger family group of accounts to use lol.

When they get those prices like Moonlight Blood completely wrong on opening they also get a double hit with the attention it gains through the commentators waffling on about it as well as Ben from Betcha etc. If they opened it at its true price of around 5.00 - 6.00 there would have been nowhere near as much bet on it. It may even have gone out in the odds a bit but so many noticed the move they all piled on. 

the thing i found strange about the moonlight blood price,was there you had that ben from betcha going on about the liability being $59,000 with several minutes to go and him saying it was going to end up the highest he had seen for a sunday.

So what did the bookies do. They kept the price at an appealing level.

So why didn't they turn the tap off by reducing the odds they were offering more,or increase the price of others a wee bit to take more money on those runners,thus mitigating their losses if moonlight blood won..

aren't bookies supposed to do that.

i've always thought thats how bookies should operate,treat everyone the same and just try and run a book that comes out with a nice profit..Like don't restrict anyone,just don't offer them attractive odds if that runner has been heavily backed and is going to lead to a loss.

Its like you get the impression the bookies are more into gambling than the gamblers.

after all,if the bookies are losing like they seem to often,then doesn't that mean that the racemeetings end up running at a profit and that will impact money available for the indstry to fund things.

i mean its nice to see punters get a win,but the level of that was more an own goal.I 

Edited 20 hours ago by the galah

[the galah]

5 minutes ago, the galah said:

then doesn't that mean that the racemeetings end up running at a profit and that will impact money available for the indstry to fund things.

 

that should have read they run at a loss/not profit.

[Nowornever]

3 hours ago, the galah said:

So why didn't they turn the tap off by reducing the odds they were offering more,or increase the price of others a wee bit to take more money on those runners,thus mitigating their losses if moonlight blood won..

aren't bookies supposed to do that.

i've always thought thats how bookies should operate,treat everyone the same and just try and run a book that comes out with a nice profit..Like don't restrict anyone,just don't offer them attractive odds if that runner has been heavily backed and is going to lead to a loss.

Yes thats how they used to do it but the UK style of risk management that has slowly crept in over the years is slash anyone that looks like they can beat you.

One of my mates who just shifted to Australia this year opened an account with Ladbrokes when he got over there and not long after put 50EW on a horse at New Plymouth he got told to back. It won and paid $18 and the day after he took his money out he just got an email saying they were closing his account. Thing is he a hopeless punter and would have given that back 10 fold if they let him keep going. He was just unlucky he got lucky just after opening his account. Or his mistake was taking the money out not sure what was the trigger for the account closure.

I believe it has the opposite effect they are going for and has dramatically reduced turnover to the point they are now offering every tom dick and harry bonus bets to entice them to spend up. That is a spiraling downward trend over time. Because most punters have a good collect every now and then but if you keep restricting anyone who has  good collect you end up restricting everyone.

Pretty sure that will happen here sooner than later. Blanket restrictions and bans.

[Gammalite]

15 hours ago, the galah said:

So why didn't they turn the tap off by reducing the odds they were offering more,or increase the price of others a wee bit to take more money on those runners,thus mitigating their losses if moonlight blood won..

aren't bookies supposed to do that.

yes it is. and they do . at small scale country meetings and that. 

On the city meetings , they take biggish bets all the time. There's a 1000 Brodies trying to get a Brodie size bet on at the gallops . and just him and that Stonewall Bloke at the TROTS lol. and they've got Brodie under control.

I haven't Bet on the TAB in years. there's way to many Corporate on-line bookies that have better deals. They even pay you in full for dead-heats . something the TAB gleefully cuts in half. 

15 hours ago, the galah said:

Its like you get the impression the bookies are more into gambling than the gamblers.

after all,if the bookies are losing like they seem to often,then doesn't that mean that the racemeetings end up running at a profit and that will impact money available for the indstry to fund things.

Of course they are Gambling (the corporate bookies) . they're addicts 100% of the time and day lol 😂🤣.

The ONLY reason you think the Bookies are losing, (which they're Not) is because of all the winning odds spotted by Brodster and NoworNever and the Stonewall bloke that you are reading in the threads. They are NOT however , saying what their Staking plan is and how many LOSING Bets they are making . thus you are being Duped by not having the FULL report . The Bookies are RACKING in the CASH . make no mistake. I'd BET that Stonewall Bloke is behind , but he's having some fun with his Millions , while he's still alive  😉. Buys a whack of horses too. so do hope some of them Win for him. 

[Nowornever]

39 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

The ONLY reason you think the Bookies are losing, (which they're Not) is because of all the winning odds spotted by Brodster and NoworNever

Word on the street is the yield is trending down for harness currently. 

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Nowornever said:

Word on the street is the yield is trending down for harness currently. 

They are too obsessed with the damn yield!

Do the successful big retail business worry about yield as much as turnover?

They want turnover snd that is what drives successful business, you get people coming to your business and you make profit!

Without enough people coming to your business then you wont make profit!

Many of the successful businesses have loss leaders but that is why they get people to their business as they make money on all the other bits!

Just as the TAB should be acting!

Continue to drive punters away and u have no business, end of story

[Nowornever]

35 minutes ago, Brodie said:

They are too obsessed with the damn yield!

Big businesses prioritize the interest of shareholders unfortunately and that revolves around maximizing profit.

Banks are a prime example. They could choose to not make as much money as they do, but instead choose to screw over customers in the pursuit of more profits.

 

[the galah]

4 hours ago, Gammalite said:

 

The ONLY reason you think the Bookies are losing, (which they're Not) is because of all the winning odds spotted by Brodster and NoworNever and the Stonewall bloke that you are reading in the threads. They are NOT however , saying what their Staking plan is and how many LOSING Bets they are making . thus you are being Duped by not having the FULL report . The Bookies are RACKING in the CASH . make no mistake. I'd BET that Stonewall Bloke is behind , but he's having some fun with his Millions , while he's still alive  😉. Buys a whack of horses too. so do hope some of them Win for him. 

I don't think anyone is duping me gamma.

i'm of the understanding that when bookies suffer big losses on runners on the ff book ,e.g.moonlite blood ,that means they will most likely have suffered a loss on that race.And if you have a run of well backed ff favorites winning at a meeting,that means the bookies will not be generating much of a profit,if any on the races where well backed favorites win.

so theoretically,hrnz may have put on a race meeting,pay out x amount in stakes,expecting to receive x amount of funding from the tab for that meeting,but end up getting next to nothing,because of how the profit/loss  ff betting turned out,no matter what the turnover figure.

Of course i realise the bookies will turn a profit in the end,but that profit varies and that impacts the amount hrnz receive from the tab for funding.

Thats how i understand  ff betting/funding from, works. 

 

Edited 15 minutes ago by the galah