August turnover numbers

[curious]

[Huey]

Wow  ...The hills are filled with Gold!

[curious]

34 minutes ago, Huey said:

Wow  ...The hills are filled with Gold!

A 7% increase year on year on NZ racing and that's turnover, so with the trend to FO, revenue is probably down. And that's with the benefit of the online monopoly, Betcha and extensive advertising now in full swing! The sunset might be closer than I expected.

Edited Wednesday at 07:10 PM by curious

[Newmarket]

9 hours ago, curious said:

A 7% increase year on year on NZ racing and that's turnover, so with the trend to FO, revenue is probably down. And that's with the benefit of the online monopoly, Betcha and extensive advertising now in full swing! The sunset might be closer than I expected.

What happened to the surge of money from NZ punters that cant bet overseas? Lets see figures this time next year, when they dont have a new Betcha introduced 

[curious]

42 minutes ago, Newmarket said:

What happened to the surge of money from NZ punters that cant bet overseas? Lets see figures this time next year, when they dont have a new Betcha introduced 

It aint there and never was. They dreamed it up. Fabricated it if you like.

[Newmarket]

3 minutes ago, curious said:

It aint there and never was. They dreamed it up. Fabricated it if you like.

Once NZ dogs go…. Its gonna look bleak.

[Chief Stipe]

11 hours ago, curious said:

A 7% increase year on year on NZ racing and that's turnover, so with the trend to FO, revenue is probably down. And that's with the benefit of the online monopoly, Betcha and extensive advertising now in full swing! The sunset might be closer than I expected.

For you or the industry?

[curious]

42 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

For you or the industry?

Probably both but I think most would realise I was referring to the industry based on the above figures.

[PeterLambFan]

48 minutes ago, curious said:

Probably both but I think most would realise I was referring to the industry based on the above figures.

I suspect the ones I have shares in now will be the last ones I race. 

[curious]

7 hours ago, PeterLambFan said:

I suspect the ones I have shares in now will be the last ones I race. 

I'll be joining you PLF. Certainly before the Entain subsidy ends but more likely this year.

[Chief Stipe]

[Chief Stipe]

@curious since you have become an online expert on all things wagering can you please explain how KALSHI is a threat to NZ racing?

Thanks in advance.

[curious]

36 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

@curious since you have become an online expert on all things wagering can you please explain how KALSHI is a threat to NZ racing?

Thanks in advance.

No. Can you?

[Chief Stipe]

3 hours ago, curious said:

No. Can you?

But you have said elsewhere online that it IS a threat.  I'm just interested in your erudite analysis that got you to this conclusion.

[hesi]

I can't figure out why people who have a wealth of knowledge in the thoroughbred industry would talk about pulling out.

From the figures posted, there is no net profit data, but all the other data is up except for field size in thoroughbred.

Stake money is up substantially in the last 2 years.

Foal crop is down

All it points to is more opportunity for those that are already set up within the industry.  More money to go around less numbers competing for it

[curious]

50 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

But you have said elsewhere online that it IS a threat.  I'm just interested in your erudite analysis that got you to this conclusion.

I don't recall mentioning KALSHI here or anywhere. You did that. What do you think?

Edited 17 hours ago by curious

[curious]

16 minutes ago, hesi said:

I can't figure out why people who have a wealth of knowledge in the thoroughbred industry would talk about pulling out.

From the figures posted, there is no net profit data, but all the other data is up except for field size in thoroughbred.

Stake money is up substantially in the last 2 years.

Foal crop is down

All it points to is more opportunity for those that are already set up within the industry.  More money to go around less numbers competing for it

Do you realise how much further wagering revenue has to increase in order for distributions and therefore stakes to be sustained in a couple of years and how far behind original predictions they are in that regard?

[hesi]

Not off hand, but that is Entain's responsibility, they still have almost 3 years of the 5 years guaranteed to run.

You are not privy to their data yet you are making assumptions.

[Special Agent]

Question ... what happens if the 5 year guarantee becomes impossible?

[hesi]

What the public documents show about “breakability”

• The documents confirm a legally negotiated, underwritten minimum guarantee for the first five years (the MG). That means the parties intend those payments to be contractual, enforceable commitments. Regulation.govt.nz+1.

• None of the public summaries publish the full contract (the detailed Schedule of termination rights, force-majeure language, material adverse change definitions, breach/repudiation clauses, or step-in/variation rights are not public). That means you need the agreement (or specific contract clauses) to know exactly how breakable it is. Regulation.govt.nz+1.

• The public materials do flag two obvious legal levers that could enable renegotiation or termination:

  1. Legislative or regulatory change — because parts of the commercial model rely on law changes (the “legislative net”), a subsequent statutory change could make performance different or impossible and may trigger renegotiation or termination mechanics in the contract. NZTR.

  2. Force majeure / impossibility / material breach — standard commercial contracts include force majeure and breach/termination clauses; these can allow variation or termination in extreme cases, but how broad or narrow those clauses are is contract-specific. (I couldn’t find the contract wording publicly.

[hesi]

Well above my pay grade here, but in answer to your question, if the 5 year quarantee became impossible and Entain reneged, the NZ Government would sue for damages??

[curious]

45 minutes ago, Special Agent said:

Question ... what happens if the 5 year guarantee becomes impossible?

I don't see how it could possibly become impossible. To me it's about as certain as you can get.

[Chief Stipe]

39 minutes ago, Special Agent said:

Question ... what happens if the 5 year guarantee becomes impossible?

What do you mean by "impossible"?  If you mean that ENTAIN losses in NZ are such that they want to bail before the first 5 years is up then they have only one option and that is to buy out of their contract.  Unless of course there are clauses in the sales contract that are dependent upon TABNZ and the NZ Government delivering on something that made the sale worthwhile in the first place.  For example the restrictions on overseas sports and racing wagering which the NZ Government has delivered.

ENTAIN would have to weigh up the risk vs reward of bailing early and what signal that would send to the investment market.  Their financial cost (essentially the difference between the promise and net profit - if any) to TABNZ is comparatively small when looked at the overall ENTAIN accounts.

The bigger question is what happens after the first 5 years.  Will ENTAIN then sell the NZ business which is essentially a license to monopoly trade in NZ?  Well it isn't clear if it is theirs to sell.  In that situation the focus will go right back on the NZ Government who were a party to the sale in the first instance.  

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, curious said:

I don't see how it could possibly become impossible. To me it's about as certain as you can get.

Can you eliminate the tautology and explain what you actually mean?

[curious]

50 minutes ago, hesi said:

Not off hand, but that is Entain's responsibility, they still have almost 3 years of the 5 years guaranteed to run.

You are not privy to their data yet you are making assumptions.

Of course I'm making assumptions. So are you. That's the nature of predictive or futures markets. 

However, I believe my assumptions are well founded. I have exact Entain revenue data through the end of the 23-24 season. I have exact turnover data since then through August 25. I am assuming that overall margins remain the same through May 28, which is probably generous given the clear trend from tote to FO markets.

I'm also aware of the annual growth in turnover to date. So, I am assuming that will remain similar for the balance of the guarantee period. The query of course was whether the online monopoly would change that but 2 months in there is no indication of that.

As well, Entain has already written down the value of its TAB NZ operations due to missed targets and market challenges.

And they face growing competition from casino licensing and other off shore marketers, especially where their pricing is not competitive. 

Now if you want to buy a horse to race beyond the guarantee period, or breed a foal that won't even get to the races by then based on your assumptions, then good luck to you.