another generalisation without context?

[the galah]

on the hrnz website theres a story that refers to a sub committee of a ratings ,handicapping and programming commttee. This group comprised of rob lawson,mike johnson and brett gray.

in section 6 of their report thay noted

"turnovers appear very strong.Note tis hard to compare  year on year as the number of race meetings and number of races has increased and we have also had cambridge changed from tuesday to thursday.The good news overwhelmingly is that turnovers certainly have NOT(their use of caps) dropped"

 

very generalised , vague,in many ways,but trying to be upbeat.

they say Its hard to compare year on year figures because of the major changes,but they did anyway because they believe the turnovers haven't dropped.

no mention of how geoblocking has effected nz wagering,how it has impacted income from overseas bookmakers who take betting on the nz harness product,the lower starter numbers,really no mention of lots of relevant stuff,because,lets face it,they probably don't have the data or were tasked with giving an in depth analysis of turnover and its impacts.

but they want to  put out there the message of don't panic,everythings going fine, as far the income harness racing will receive from wagering.

Anyway,the lack of context that i refer to can be drilled down to the most obvious important thing.

is the income from wagering going to generate enough income to maintain stake levels.

i mean,whats the point in saying,wagering has certainly NOT dropped,when if the wagering level of the previous year they were comparing it with was not generating enough incme to maintain stake levels.

In other words,its entirely possible,even probable,that if wagering has actuallly gone up in the last year,it still won't be generating enoough income to maintain the level of stakes.

so really this committee of 3 comments about wagering,really don't mean much at all.

they're simply trying to give a positive impression.

Theres a lot of that in almost every press release on the hrnz website these days. 

never an admission of any worrying data,never an admission of anything negative really.

It was like the press release from m peden about the bonus scheme.Like you could read that and think,if they aren't going to ever admit  that some things are trending negatively or that some highly promioted scheme was a failure,then why should anyone believe they ever will tell it as it is.                                                                                       

Edited 11 hours ago by the galah

[Chief Stipe]

23 minutes ago, the galah said:

The good news overwhelmingly is that turnovers certainly have NOT(their use of caps) dropped"

 

very generalised , vague,in many ways,but trying to be upbeat.

they say Its hard to compare year on year figures because of the major changes,but they did anyway because they believe the turnovers haven't dropped.

How is "Turnovers haven't dropped" a vague generalisation?  If they aren't less than last year then they haven't dropped.

[Chief Stipe]

24 minutes ago, the galah said:

i mean,whats the point in saying,wagering has certainly NOT dropped,when if the wagering level of the previous year they were comparing it with was not generating enough incme to maintain stake levels.

That's a different subject.  If they haven't dropped then at least the situation isn't getting worse.  Although it isn't a concern yet until 3 years hence.

[Chief Stipe]

26 minutes ago, the galah said:

so really this committee of 3 comments about wagering,really don't mean much at all.

they're simply trying to give a positive impression.

Theres a lot of that in almost every press release on the hrnz website these days. 

never an admission of any worrying data,never an admission of anything negative really.

Why present in negative terms that during a recession the wagering revenue has stayed the same?  Most businesses I know would be happy if that was the case - many of them have struggled the last two years or so.  However they do report improving economic conditions.

[the galah]

4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

How is "Turnovers haven't dropped" a vague generalisation?  If they aren't less than last year then they haven't dropped.

huh.i explained why .No point picking out bits

4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

That's a different subject.  If they haven't dropped then at least the situation isn't getting worse.  Although it isn't a concern yet until 3 years hence.

Again,that ain't neccassarily so,even probably so. i explained why if you read my whole post.

but for you again.

if you run x amount of races and those amount of races are not generating enough income from wagering to cover the stakes paid.And then you increase the amount of races from x to y,and you generate the same turnover per race on the y races as you had on the x races,then what you have done is maintained turnover but increased the deficit between turnover and stakes paid,because you have run more of them.

4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Why present in negative terms that during a recession the wagering revenue has stayed the same?  Most businesses I know would be happy if that was the case - many of them have struggled the last two years or so.  However they do report improving economic conditions.

you just miss the points i made,i can't help that.

Edited 6 hours ago by the galah

[Nowornever]

5 hours ago, the galah said:

turnovers appear very strong.Note tis hard to compare  year on year as the number of race meetings and number of races has increased and we have also had cambridge changed from tuesday to thursday.The good news overwhelmingly is that turnovers certainly have NOT(their use of caps) dropped

That is a complete copout and also a load of horse shit.  A monitoring and review group can’t meaningfully assess the turnover performance without full access to race by race turnover data. They should be able to give a very accurate assessment of everything turnover related and if they can not then the report is a waste of time.

[Brodie]

6 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

That's a different subject.  If they haven't dropped then at least the situation isn't getting worse.  Although it isn't a concern yet until 3 years hence.

 Chief, it is 2 and a 1/2 years to go, and the usage of the Entain money has been decidedly very poor.

The ones making the decisions will not be around when  the day of reckoning comes.

Anyway nothing we can do apart from pointing out the error of their ways!!

[the galah]

1 hour ago, Nowornever said:

That is a complete copout and also a load of horse shit.  A monitoring and review group can’t meaningfully assess the turnover performance without full access to race by race turnover data. They should be able to give a very accurate assessment of everything turnover related and if they can not then the report is a waste of time.

i  gave them the benefit of the doubt on the basis that as a handicapping,rating and programming committee ,they had commented  on turnovers, when it was not their area they were tasked with,thus they may not have had all the data.

my main point was they had commented on turnovers to create a positive spin ,but they deliberately used language that could be taken 2 ways to cover their arses from future criticism should information become public which showed they were wrong in how they spun it.

to be honest,i'm a bit confused as to what your saying in your post as i think it could be taken 2 ways.

1) that you  believe what they are saying, as you are saying they have access to all the data to back that up so wouldn't say it unless they knew it was true..

or 2)you don't believe what they say,because of the vagueness of the language they use in their report.

[the galah]

tomnights tote betting pools  are rather pitiful . The last 3 races at auckland haven't even made over $3000 in the win pool. Most of the others under $4000.

hrnz spokes people keep saying the turnovers are good,well it can't be betting on the tote. 

Addington had a couple of races ok ,which obviously got a couple of minutes more coverage around tea time in australia,but the rest of the pools very small.Manawatu type tote turnovers

some of the racesit seems some drivers simply aren't trying very hard. or just waiting for next week.The last 2 races, $1.90 favorite ameretto franco simply never given a chance to win by sitting last on a sprint home even though the trainer indicated before ,in a pre race interview,he thought it would be drivin positively, then one of the 2 win movers at auckland in a 6 horse race,bettor raction at $4,definetly driven to just follow them around.

oh well.

Edited 2 hours ago by the galah

[Nowornever]

1 hour ago, the galah said:

i  gave them the benefit of the doubt on the basis that as a handicapping,rating and programming committee ,they had commented  on turnovers, when it was not their area they were tasked with,thus they may not have had all the data.

my main point was they had commented on turnovers to create a positive spin ,but they deliberately used language that could be taken 2 ways to cover their arses from future criticism should information become public which showed they were wrong in how they spun it.

to be honest,i'm a bit confused as to what your saying in your post as i think it could be taken 2 ways.

1) that you  believe what they are saying, as you are saying they have access to all the data to back that up so wouldn't say it unless they knew it was true..

or 2)you don't believe what they say,because of the vagueness of the language they use in their report.

They are saying the turnover as a total has not gone down. That is probably true as they have put on more meetings.

We need to know the turnover per race data as an average which paints a true picture. I believe they have this information but are unlikely to be sharing it because I heard it is not good reading.

In fact the North Island meetings race by race data will be giving them a heart attack. They probably are doing all they can to flush the North Island data down the toilet.

[Nowornever]

30 minutes ago, the galah said:

The last 3 races at auckland haven't even made over $3000 in the win pool. Most of the others under $4000

Shit I couldn't even have a bet on the last couple. Someone pulled the pin.

 

 

 

[Nowornever]

Betcha is down for me also. Same message

[the galah]

 

21 minutes ago, Nowornever said:

They are saying the turnover as a total has not gone down. That is probably true as they have put on more meetings.

 

i quoted their exact wording earlier,which implies more than what you say.

but i agree with you they lack transparency. If things were as good as they make out,then all they would have to do is release the fugures and show that and that would silence the naysayers.