Are Kiwi buyers getting priced out of Karaka 2026?

[Chief Stipe]

The Karaka sales 2026 look quite buoyant so far.  Good prices and not many passed in.

[hesi]

22% gone to NZ buyers so far

[Chief Stipe]

1 minute ago, hesi said:

22% gone to NZ buyers so far

They've been under bidders on a few good ones.

[hesi]

Basically a fifth are going to NZ, is that typical.

Many will be waiting for Book 2 to try and get a bargain

[curious]

32 minutes ago, hesi said:

Basically a fifth are going to NZ, is that typical.

Many will be waiting for Book 2 to try and get a bargain

I have an average about 50% across books 1 and 2 the last couple of years.

[Chief Stipe]

Booming Trade Kicks off Momentous Karaka 2026

NZB’s historic 100th National Yearling Sale kicked off with a solid first day of trade with increases across the average and median reflecting a healthy middle market.

At the close of selling for the opening session, 207 lots sold for a total aggregate of more than $38 million. The average reached $184,529, a 12% increase on the Book 1 total last year, while the median closed at $140,000, an increase of 27%.

Fittingly, Cambridge Stud who have been selling yearlings for more than 70 years at the National Yearling Sale, offered the top lot of the day.

The blue-blooded Snitzel colt out of Amarelinha (Lot 265) was knocked down to Chris Waller Racing and Mulcaster Bloodstock for $850,000.

“He’s a beautiful colt by a champion sire out of a NZB Filly of the Year in Amarelinha,” commented bloodstock agent Guy Mulcaster.

“We had a really good client who wanted to buy a good colt today, and hopefully he’s going to buy some good fillies tomorrow as well.

“Buying off Cambridge Stud, you can’t go wrong,” he added.

Another long-standing vendor, Hallmark Stud, offered the second top lot on Day One when Lot 93, a Super Seth colt out of Rozala, was purchased for $675,000 by KPW Bloodstock.

“I thought this was just an outstanding colt, one of the best moving colts on the complex,” commented KPW Bloodstock’s Kevin ‘Milly’ Walls.

NZB’s Director and Head Auctioneer Mike Kneebone commented on the first day of trade at the refreshed Book 1 Sale. 

"We've taken on a massive challenge of selling across long nine hour days. To take that risk, condensing the catalogue, it's very rewarding to see the Sale start so well."

"There are so many good horses spread across so many good stud farms. The first 20 horses were remarkable, and that flow continued all day.

"To have 19 horses make $400,000 or more on the first day, when last year there was 26 in total, it indicates how well the Sale is travelling and a very healthy middle market.

"As we know the second day is when everyone has their eye in. A lot of people came here today to buy a horse and they are still waiting.

"There has been great feedback about the refreshed format and having all the Book 2 horses on the ground early.

"It's also great to see both Australia and Hong Kong so active, and the Kiwis really stepping up. The clearance rate will continue to improve overnight, and we look forward to another strong day tomorrow."

Selling continues on Monday for Day Two of Book 1, where lots 291 – 567 will go through the ring from 10am (NZT) at Karaka.

The Sale is televised live on SKY Channel 263 and Freeview Channel 200 in New Zealand and on Racing.com in Australia, as well as on NZB’s website, online bidding platform and Facebook page.

To enquire about Passed Lots contact Patrick Cunningham at +64 21 181 5898 or email Patrick.Cunningham@nzb.co.nz or Andrew Buick at +64 27 555 0640 or email Andrew.Buick@nzb.co.nz.

 

 

READ >

New Zealand Bloodstock

 

 

Email Preferences

 

© New Zealand Bloodstock.

10 Hinau Road, Karaka, 2113, New Zealand.

 

 

 

[hesi]

Day 1 without the spin

290 lots

20 withdrawn

207 sold

63 Passed (23.3%)

72 NZ buyers (34.8% of the 207 sold)

David Ellis 11 lots ($3.15 mil av $286,400) plus 1 for Fortuna ($60K)

I think TA have about 30 syndicates, so still a few to buy today and Book 2

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, hesi said:

Day 1 without the spin

290 lots

20 withdrawn

207 sold

63 Passed (23.3%)

72 NZ buyers (34.8% of the 207 sold)

David Ellis 11 lots ($3.15 mil av $286,400) plus 1 for Fortuna ($60K)

I think TA have about 30 syndicates, so still a few to buy today and Book 2

What spin?  $38m worth of bloodstock sold Day 1.  Average and mean up.  Very bouyant.

[hesi]

32 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

What spin?  $38m worth of bloodstock sold Day 1.  Average and mean up.  Very bouyant.

Come on Chief, an article is spin when you only publish the good news.  It does not contain any info about the % passed in and how that compares with previous years

[Chief Stipe]

11 minutes ago, hesi said:

Come on Chief, an article is spin when you only publish the good news.  It does not contain any info about the % passed in and how that compares with previous years

Come on @hesi you can do better than that.  All the detail is on the website.  At the end of Day 1 the clearance rate was 77%.  Only 1% below the final clearance rate for the last 2 years.  I expect that the clearance figure will increase.  So 100-77 = 23% passed in.

[hesi]

No, it was an article put out by NZB, with all the good news.  It failed to mention what the clearance rate was and how that compared to previous years, as done with the good news.  That is spin

Edited 2 hours ago by hesi

[billy connolly]

Who's the hybrid in glasses standing next to auctioneer waving like a Hillmorton patient?

[Chief Stipe]

26 minutes ago, hesi said:

No, it was an article put out by NZB, with all the good news.  It failed to mention what the clearance rate was and how that compared to previous years, as done with the good news.  That is spin

FFS @hesi the clearance rate is on the same page as the press release!!!  It was 77% - previous 3 years 78, 78 and 79.  The clearance rate improves over the course of the sale as passed in lots are negotiared over.

23% passed in is a factor of seller unrealistic reserves, faults in horse comformation and the current market fashion.  The fact is this sale is as good as any Karaka Sale.

Spin is where someone is trying to paint a good picture of a sows ear.  The results in the article speaks for themselves.

[hesi]

The clearance rate wasn't on the press release that you posted.

Not disputing it has been a good sale so far

[Murray Fish]

40 minutes ago, hesi said:

No, it was an article put out by

This article is a couple of years old, but ponders some interesting ways to look at any sale.

"

Ever since the second half of the 17th century when farmers in Yorkshire and surrounds began selling the thoroughbred to the court of King Charles II and the Lords and gentry who created our sport on the chalklands of Newmarket, the market has rarely found the perfect balance between supply and demand.

Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

Generally the market has been cyclic, but for the last forty years the trend on foal crop production has been downwards and the 2024 season looks likely to continue the decline.

Since the short-lived, stock market driven, global peak in thoroughbred breeding in the 1980’s and the demise of the ‘Celtic Tiger’ economy in Ireland, the two powerhouses of breeding have seen substantial falls in foals on the ground. In the US it has been particularly acute, numbers over 40,000 in the 1980’s are expected to come in around 17,200 for the 2022 crop factoring in late registrations.

In Australia where we have always ranked second globally by numbers, and New Zealand, the falls haven’t been as steep but are still significant. This is down to a number of factors but primarily a reflection of racing’s position within the fabric of our societies, whereas in America the sport is very much seen by the general public almost exclusively as a gambling outlet. Irrespective, for 2023 New Zealand has registered 2,744 foals at last count and Australia is expected to finish around the 12,800 mark when at their peaks both countries were knocking out 50 per cent more.

“New Zealand has registered 2,744 foals at last count and Australia is expected to finish around the 12,800 mark when at their peaks both countries were knocking out 50 per cent more.”

Down the years it always amazed me how, with evidence to the contrary, those supposedly with their finger on the pulse across the thoroughbred world would tell you, “it’s ok the numbers have bottomed out”. For once we might actually be getting to that point as, using the statistics on the Australian Stud Book website, and excluding the Covid fuelled 2021 season, the number of live coverings for 2022 fell 1 per cent against 2020 and 4.7 per cent against 2018. A single percentage point per year drop would appear manageable as long as advances in veterinary science and training practices can keep horses on the track longer.

What are we to expect in Spring?

So what might we expect in Spring 2024? Playing devil’s advocate the statistics (yes I’m conscious of the Mark Twain phrase of ‘lies, damn lies and statistics’) suggest those dealing with stock at the lower end of the market might require a sanity check, but then the economy they will be selling to in 2027 may well be a very different beast to the one we are wrestling with at the moment. The top end seems impervious to economic pain so up in those lofty heights it will be a case of ‘steady as she goes’.

With crystal balls in short supply we have to look back to try and see forward, starting with the results from this year’s yearling sales. The 2022 crop of yearlings were conceived off the back of the Covid sugar hit where all was thought to be rosy in the thoroughbred garden.

Yearlings in a paddock | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

Wagering, and therefore prizemoney, had outstripped expectations while simultaneously some stallion owners had made the decision to reduce the pressure on breeders. A noble sentiment, not followed by all, but combined they created a stimulus to the marketplace with an extra 560 coverings, or 2.8 per cent, recorded by the ASB, bucking the decades old trend of decline. From that came an extra 252 foals with 49 more, or 1 per cent, making their way to the sale ring, a figure itself no doubt influenced by the rise of digital sales. The problem those breeders faced was they sent their yearlings to market at the same time economic factors such as mortgage rate hikes, were having the greatest effect. In the two and a bit years from conception to sale day, rates and sundry costs have spiked.

Determining a breakeven point

For the purposes of this article determining a breakeven point for the ‘average’ breeder was, as they say, very much a pineapple. Just how much a yearling costs depends on the service fee, whether the breeder owns a share in, or breeding right to, the stallion, whether the service can be acquired at below the advertised fee and at which sale the product is sold.

As individual details can’t be obtained I’ve looked at horses sold in 2024 through the live auctions of William Inglis and Magic Millions, not tried to separate the key costs by the sale date and not applied GST on the basis most commercial breeders can claim that back. I’ve also avoided insurance, but have applied the auction house 8.5 per cent to any sales and then sundry levies. Using advertised charges from a few farms I’ve applied a nominal number for production costs from births of $24,000, but that in itself doesn’t allow for expense incurred on the mare during gestation. The table below offers a brief summary of what the chances of a profit were.

returns

offered

sold

passed in

% showing roi

Up to $20,0002169175641344.40%

$20,001 to $40,0001378112125748.50%

$40,001 to $60,00067454712758.70%

$60,001 to $100,0004063495767.90%

$100,001 plus4083357370.10%

Table: Yearling returns by service fee (less GST)

Throw all that into a spreadsheet and hey presto; it makes for difficult reading, particularly at the bottom end. Using the auction house published figures for the purpose of this guide, of the 1,756 horses sold that were conceived by stallions standing at $20,000 or less, 977 or 55.6 per cent made a loss, and that doesn’t account for a further 413 lots that were passed in, the vast majority carrying reserves that would not have covered expenses.

Profitable yearlings

Surprisingly, the percentage of profitable yearlings in the $20k to $40k bracket only climbs to 48.5 per cent on smaller numbers, but from there to the elite end of the market your chances of a profit do climb significantly. Yes, there were some spectacular results achieved from modest covering fees, the $625,000 filly out of Cosmah Domination (Oratorio) from a $15,000 visit to Playing God the most notable. And there are plenty of examples where mares with modest credentials have more than held their own, but the vast majority of mares worthy of stallions at the lower reaches of the market would be significantly overbred if the breeder shelled out, say, $40,000. Spending that sort of money on mares that may have won a provincial maiden or has a few country victories to her credit demands she throws a cracking type for a fighting chance of breaking square.

Playing God | Standing at Darling View Thoroughbreds

The reality is general economic pressures have led to fewer buyers and far less demand. So just how many of those breeders will stump up again in 2024? Many play the numbers game, hoping one home run will cover any number of strike outs. But for the majority of breeders who treat the industry as a hobby, they won’t have the stock to operate in that fashion and a diminishing bank balance has to rule. That said, experience tells that the hardest thing for a breeder to truly digest is advice that that modestly bred and performed mare with the good bone and gorgeous head grazing serenely on the flats just isn’t worth sending to stud. In years past her progeny would most likely be fighting for attention from country trainers, but with prizemoney where it is they can now afford to be forage further up the thoroughbred food chain.

Using a concoction of guesswork and a smattering of anecdotal evidence, the current trend of a 2-3 per cent drop in mares covered will continue into this coming Spring. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if it was as high as a tick over 4 per cent, but let’s be optimistic. In coming articles we’ll look at what that might mean for farms standing stallions at the lower end of the market, the possibility of long term consequences for field sizes and wagering, how dependent we might become on imports, what impact advances in veterinary science and increased prizemoney levels are having on the longevity of racing careers and so the number of yearlings required each season, what it might mean for aftercare programs and what the industry might look like in five years’ time."

https://www.ttrausnz.com.au/edition/2024-08-26/foal-crop-review-what-should-we-expect-this-spring