Are Kiwi buyers getting priced out of Karaka 2026?

[curious]

56 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

That's not spin!!!!  The clearance rate at time of print was the same.  If they had said "the clearance rate is the same as the last 4 years but we predict by the end of tomorrow that it will be well up on the last 5 years" - then that's spin!!!!!!!

Looks like 75%+ again today which seems ok, though thought overall might have been a bit stronger.

[Chief Stipe]

31 minutes ago, curious said:

Looks like 75%+ again today which seems ok, though thought overall might have been a bit stronger.

Some nice looking yearlings went through today based on type and movement.

[curious]

2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Some nice looking yearlings went through today based on type and movement.

I thought so too though didn't watch much live. Looked like a few at buyable prices too.

[hesi]

They should have stated in the NZB release that the aggregate, average and median were higher, quoting data, all of which they did.  Then quoted the clearance rate and said it was on a par with last year.

If you just report the positive stuff then the release is spin

Edited Tuesday at 05:28 AM by hesi

[Murray Fish]

5 hours ago, hesi said:

There was a woman who called him boring and he launched  a sustained character assassination of her.

he is a deep seated misogynist! WFA

[Huey]

Per Incanto stock as usual looked outstanding!

If only I was as rich as @Chief Stipe

[curious]

https://www.ttrausnz.com.au/edition/2026-01-29/when-karaka-shrank-the-market-sharpened-a-deeper-look-at-the-metrics

 

[Chief Stipe]

When Karaka shrank, the market sharpened: a deeper look at the metrics

Written by

Renee Geelen

Australian buyers didn’t just turn up at Karaka in 2026 - they shaped it. With fewer horses on offer and the same competitive pressure, prices lifted across the board, particularly at the lower end, as scarcity did what it always does.

Cover image courtesy of New Zealand Bloodstock

Data from New Zealand Bloodstock website as at 28 January 2026

Karaka’s shift in 2026 wasn’t subtle: the catalogue was cut by 240 yearlings, the sale was compressed from five days to three, and the market responded exactly the way markets do when supply tightens. Book 1’s median lifted to NZ$140,000 (up from NZ$110,000) - but the real story was Book 2, where the median surged to NZ$60,000 from NZ$26,750.

Tightening comes with a trade-off; with fewer horses offered, headline gross growth is always going to be capped, and total turnover now reflects volume discipline rather than demand fatigue. So it was particularly notable that gross increased across both books.

A smaller sale, a tougher fight

Across both books, 848 yearlings were catalogued in 2026 compared to 1008 in 2025. After four straight years sitting around the 1100 mark, the shape of the sale materially changed. Fewer lots meant more competition per horse, and a clearer lift in the floor, reflected in the averages, medians, and clearance rates.

The biggest change came in book 2, moving from 448 lots in 2025 to 281 in 2026, a removal of 146 horses from that sector of the market and a reduction from two days to one. Book 1 tightened by 94 horses from 661 catalogued in 2025 over three days to 567 catalogued in 2026 over two days of selling.

year	catalogued	offered	sold	clearance	gross	average	median
2026	567	520	422	81%	$ 79,022,500	$ 187,257	$ 140,000
2025	661	588	457	78%	$ 75,332,500	$ 164,841	$ 110,000
2024	682	607	473	78%	$ 79,585,500	$ 168,257	$ 120,000
2023	644	582	461	79%	$ 70,063,000	$ 151,980	$ 130,000
2022	636	558	430	77%	$ 63,127,500	$ 146,808	$ 100,000

Table: Book 1 of Overall 5-year metrics NZB National Yearling Sale

year	catalogued	offered	sold	clearance	gross	average	median
2026	281	248	188	76%	$ 12,247,000	$ 65,144	$ 60,000
2025	427	355	270	76%	$ 9,759,000	$ 36,144	$ 26,750
2024	443	378	265	70%	$ 11,444,000	$ 43,185	$ 32,500
2023	435	376	267	71%	$ 11,516,000	$ 43,131	$ 32,000
2022	466	385	247	64%	$ 10,036,000	$ 40,632	$ 30,000

Table: Book 2 of Overall 5-year metrics NZB National Yearling Sale

Where the lift really occurred

Breaking Book 1 into quartiles shows where the tightening actually did its work. Rather than the gains being isolated to the very top of the market, every price band moved higher in 2026 - a sign that improved quality wasn’t confined to elite lots, but spread through the catalogue.

Looking back across the past five years helps put that shift into context. While 2023 delivered a relatively strong median, it did so with a softer top quartile and a heavier reliance on the middle of the market. In contrast, 2026 shows broader strength, with each quartile lifting year-on-year, despite fewer horses changing hands.

In 2026, every quartile average lifted by at least 12% on 2025. Rather than inflation driven by a handful of top-end outliers, the data points to a deeper, more competitive market across the whole of Book 1.

year	book 1 sold https://bitofayarn.com	book 1 median	b1 q1 average	b1 q2 average	b1 q3 average	b1 q4 average
2026	422	$140,000	$396,699	$182,736	$110,943	$64,500
2025	457	$110,000	$347,958	$149,915	$92,161	$52,648
2024	473	$120,000	$341,829	$160,164	$98,934	$59,333
2023	461	$130,000	$292,797	$156,992	$97,500	$50,936
2022	430	$100,000	$316,116	$135,670	$80,938	$44,491

Table: NZB National Yearling Sale Book 1 Quartile analysishttps://bitofayarn.com

Measured by median, 2026 stands as the strongest Book 1 result of the past five years, with NZ$140,000 marking a clear step up from the NZ$110,000 recorded in 2025.

Importantly, that lift came without an expansion in catalogue size - reinforcing that the market moved because buyers were prepared to pay more per horse, not because more horses were offered.https://bitofayarn.com

The most pronounced gains came at the lower end. The bottom 25% of Book 1 horses averaged NZ$64,500, up from the previous peak of NZ$59,333 in 2024. Over the past four years, the cheapest quartile has lifted 31%, outpacing gains in the top end and confirming that the tighter catalogue materially reset the market floor.

By reducing numbers at Karaka and diverting marginal stock into the Summer Sale and National Online Sale, New Zealand Bloodstock has effectively protected the integrity of Book 1. The result was greater consistency through the lower and middle bands, and a Book 2 market that responded even more sharply.https://bitofayarn.com

Australian money set the tone

New Zealand Bloodstock tracks buyer origin in two ways. Publicly reported results record the location of the purchasing entity, while internal data captures the end-user - the party funding the purchase. In most cases the two align, but where agents are involved, the internal data provides a clearer picture of where the capital is actually coming from.

New Zealand Bloodstock provided this internal buyer-location data to The Thoroughbred Report. Using that internal measure, Australian buyers accounted for 48% of total gross sales across both books in 2026, up from 43% in 2025.

funding buyer	2026 lots	2026 gross	2025 lots	2025 gross
Australia	242	48%	438	43%
New Zealand	283	34%	227	41%
Hong Kong	49	9%	44	10%
China	24	4%	16	0%
South Africa	9	2%	5	1%
Singapore	9	1%	8	1%

Table: NZB internal data by % of gross spend

A broader buying bench

In 2026, 218 individual buying groups competed for 422 Book 1 yearlings, purchasing an average of 1.94 horses per buyer. That compares with 217 buying groups in 2025, who purchased an average of 2.11 horses from 457 horses sold.https://bitofayarn.com

David Ellis has been the leading buyer at Karaka for more than two decades and his influence on the sale remains significant. Over the past five years, however, his purchasing profile has evolved alongside the expansion of Te Akau’s Australian operations. In 2026, Ellis purchased 17 Book 1 yearlings for NZ$4.26 million, down from 31 yearlings and NZ$8.07 million in 2022.https://bitofayarn.com

David Ellis | Image courtesy of Trish Dunell

In practical terms, a similar number of buyers were ending up with fewer horses, increasing competitive pressure and reducing the ability of any one buyer to dominate the catalogue.

year https://bitofayarn.com	lots	sold	median	buyers	lots per buyers	number of buyers who bought one lot	per cent buyers one lot	top buyer by volume	lots bought	top buyer gross
2026	567	422	$140,000	218	2	139	64%	David Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ)	17	$4,260,000
2025	661	457	$110,000	217	2	130	60%	Mr DC Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ)	26	$4,497,500
2024	682	473	$120,000	253	2	159	63%	Mr DC Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ)	25	$5,700,000
2023	644	461	$130,000	229	2	138	60%	Mr DC Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ)	26	$6,035,000
2022	636	430	$100,000	212	2	133	63%	Mr DC Ellis	31	$8,070,000

Table: Buyer behavoiur at NZB

Contracted catalogue but similar vendor figures

Despite the reduction in sale size, the number of vendors represented in Book 1 has stayed fairly static across the past five years. In 2026, the 567 yearlings catalogued were spread across 42 vendors, who presented an average of 13.5 yearlings each. The peak number of vendors was in 2023 when 48 different vendors showcased horses in book 1.

Cambridge Stud | Image courtesy of Cambridge Stud

Cambridge Stud was the leading vendors by lots sold in 2026, beating Waikato Stud into second from the top slot they’d held the previous four years.https://bitofayarn.com

Cambridge Stud sold 50 yearlings in 2026.

year	lots	sold	median	vendors	avg yearlings catalogued per vendor	biggest vendor	lots sold	gross
2026	567	422	140,000	42	14	Cambridge Stud	50	$10,640,000
2025	661	457	110,000	44	15	Waikato Stud Ltd	47	$6,010,000
2024	682	473	120,000	46	15	Waikato Stud Ltd	59	$8,730,000
2023	644	461	130,000	48	13	Waikato Stud Ltd	53	$7,792,500
2022	636	430	100,000	44	15	Waikato Stud Ltd	39	$7,860,000

Table: Vendor data over the last five years

Stallion mix in Book 1

Across the past five years, the percentage of yearlings by New Zealand based stallions has stayed static at 72% of the catalogue, with Australian-based stallions making up the remainder of the yearlings presented.https://bitofayarn.com

year	lots	nz based	aus based	international	nz %
2026	567	406	159	2	72%
2025	661	465	195	1	70%
2024	682	509	171	2	75%
2023	644	452	192	0	70%
2022	636	458	178	0	72%

Table: Sire location in NZB Book 1

[Chief Stipe]

5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Measured by median, 2026 stands as the strongest Book 1 result of the past five years, with NZ$140,000 marking a clear step up from the NZ$110,000 recorded in 2025.

Importantly, that lift came without an expansion in catalogue size - reinforcing that the market moved because buyers were prepared to pay more per horse, not because more horses were offered.

So a strong sale.

[curious]

Looks strong today too. High clearance rate.

[Murray Fish]

4 hours ago, curious said:

Looks strong today too. High clearance rate.

any estimate of the % that made a Profit? 

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, Murray Fish said:

any estimate of the % that made a Profit? 

I presume you mean sellers?  That would be impossible to accurately work out unless you knew the individual circumstances of each breeder and their costs.