curious Posted Tuesday at 04:48 AM Posted Tuesday at 04:48 AM 56 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: That's not spin!!!! The clearance rate at time of print was the same. If they had said "the clearance rate is the same as the last 4 years but we predict by the end of tomorrow that it will be well up on the last 5 years" - then that's spin!!!!!!! Looks like 75%+ again today which seems ok, though thought overall might have been a bit stronger. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted Tuesday at 05:20 AM Author Posted Tuesday at 05:20 AM 31 minutes ago, curious said: Looks like 75%+ again today which seems ok, though thought overall might have been a bit stronger. Some nice looking yearlings went through today based on type and movement. Quote
curious Posted Tuesday at 05:24 AM Posted Tuesday at 05:24 AM 2 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Some nice looking yearlings went through today based on type and movement. I thought so too though didn't watch much live. Looked like a few at buyable prices too. 1 Quote
hesi Posted Tuesday at 05:26 AM Posted Tuesday at 05:26 AM (edited) They should have stated in the NZB release that the aggregate, average and median were higher, quoting data, all of which they did. Then quoted the clearance rate and said it was on a par with last year. If you just report the positive stuff then the release is spin Edited Tuesday at 05:28 AM by hesi Quote
Murray Fish Posted Tuesday at 07:48 AM Posted Tuesday at 07:48 AM 5 hours ago, hesi said: There was a woman who called him boring and he launched a sustained character assassination of her. he is a deep seated misogynist! WFA Quote
Huey Posted Tuesday at 08:32 AM Posted Tuesday at 08:32 AM Per Incanto stock as usual looked outstanding! If only I was as rich as @Chief Stipe Quote
curious Posted 17 hours ago Posted 17 hours ago https://www.ttrausnz.com.au/edition/2026-01-29/when-karaka-shrank-the-market-sharpened-a-deeper-look-at-the-metrics 2 Quote
Chief Stipe Posted 12 hours ago Author Posted 12 hours ago When Karaka shrank, the market sharpened: a deeper look at the metrics Written by Renee Geelen Australian buyers didn’t just turn up at Karaka in 2026 - they shaped it. With fewer horses on offer and the same competitive pressure, prices lifted across the board, particularly at the lower end, as scarcity did what it always does. Cover image courtesy of New Zealand Bloodstock Data from New Zealand Bloodstock website as at 28 January 2026 Karaka’s shift in 2026 wasn’t subtle: the catalogue was cut by 240 yearlings, the sale was compressed from five days to three, and the market responded exactly the way markets do when supply tightens. Book 1’s median lifted to NZ$140,000 (up from NZ$110,000) - but the real story was Book 2, where the median surged to NZ$60,000 from NZ$26,750. Tightening comes with a trade-off; with fewer horses offered, headline gross growth is always going to be capped, and total turnover now reflects volume discipline rather than demand fatigue. So it was particularly notable that gross increased across both books. A smaller sale, a tougher fight Across both books, 848 yearlings were catalogued in 2026 compared to 1008 in 2025. After four straight years sitting around the 1100 mark, the shape of the sale materially changed. Fewer lots meant more competition per horse, and a clearer lift in the floor, reflected in the averages, medians, and clearance rates. The biggest change came in book 2, moving from 448 lots in 2025 to 281 in 2026, a removal of 146 horses from that sector of the market and a reduction from two days to one. Book 1 tightened by 94 horses from 661 catalogued in 2025 over three days to 567 catalogued in 2026 over two days of selling. year catalogued offered sold clearance gross average median 2026 567 520 422 81% $ 79,022,500 $ 187,257 $ 140,000 2025 661 588 457 78% $ 75,332,500 $ 164,841 $ 110,000 2024 682 607 473 78% $ 79,585,500 $ 168,257 $ 120,000 2023 644 582 461 79% $ 70,063,000 $ 151,980 $ 130,000 2022 636 558 430 77% $ 63,127,500 $ 146,808 $ 100,000 Table: Book 1 of Overall 5-year metrics NZB National Yearling Sale year catalogued offered sold clearance gross average median 2026 281 248 188 76% $ 12,247,000 $ 65,144 $ 60,000 2025 427 355 270 76% $ 9,759,000 $ 36,144 $ 26,750 2024 443 378 265 70% $ 11,444,000 $ 43,185 $ 32,500 2023 435 376 267 71% $ 11,516,000 $ 43,131 $ 32,000 2022 466 385 247 64% $ 10,036,000 $ 40,632 $ 30,000 Table: Book 2 of Overall 5-year metrics NZB National Yearling Sale Where the lift really occurred Breaking Book 1 into quartiles shows where the tightening actually did its work. Rather than the gains being isolated to the very top of the market, every price band moved higher in 2026 - a sign that improved quality wasn’t confined to elite lots, but spread through the catalogue. Looking back across the past five years helps put that shift into context. While 2023 delivered a relatively strong median, it did so with a softer top quartile and a heavier reliance on the middle of the market. In contrast, 2026 shows broader strength, with each quartile lifting year-on-year, despite fewer horses changing hands. In 2026, every quartile average lifted by at least 12% on 2025. Rather than inflation driven by a handful of top-end outliers, the data points to a deeper, more competitive market across the whole of Book 1. year book 1 sold https://bitofayarn.com book 1 median b1 q1 average b1 q2 average b1 q3 average b1 q4 average 2026 422 $140,000 $396,699 $182,736 $110,943 $64,500 2025 457 $110,000 $347,958 $149,915 $92,161 $52,648 2024 473 $120,000 $341,829 $160,164 $98,934 $59,333 2023 461 $130,000 $292,797 $156,992 $97,500 $50,936 2022 430 $100,000 $316,116 $135,670 $80,938 $44,491 Table: NZB National Yearling Sale Book 1 Quartile analysishttps://bitofayarn.com Measured by median, 2026 stands as the strongest Book 1 result of the past five years, with NZ$140,000 marking a clear step up from the NZ$110,000 recorded in 2025. Importantly, that lift came without an expansion in catalogue size - reinforcing that the market moved because buyers were prepared to pay more per horse, not because more horses were offered.https://bitofayarn.com The most pronounced gains came at the lower end. The bottom 25% of Book 1 horses averaged NZ$64,500, up from the previous peak of NZ$59,333 in 2024. Over the past four years, the cheapest quartile has lifted 31%, outpacing gains in the top end and confirming that the tighter catalogue materially reset the market floor. By reducing numbers at Karaka and diverting marginal stock into the Summer Sale and National Online Sale, New Zealand Bloodstock has effectively protected the integrity of Book 1. The result was greater consistency through the lower and middle bands, and a Book 2 market that responded even more sharply.https://bitofayarn.com Australian money set the tone New Zealand Bloodstock tracks buyer origin in two ways. Publicly reported results record the location of the purchasing entity, while internal data captures the end-user - the party funding the purchase. In most cases the two align, but where agents are involved, the internal data provides a clearer picture of where the capital is actually coming from. New Zealand Bloodstock provided this internal buyer-location data to The Thoroughbred Report. Using that internal measure, Australian buyers accounted for 48% of total gross sales across both books in 2026, up from 43% in 2025. funding buyer 2026 lots 2026 gross 2025 lots 2025 gross Australia 242 48% 438 43% New Zealand 283 34% 227 41% Hong Kong 49 9% 44 10% China 24 4% 16 0% South Africa 9 2% 5 1% Singapore 9 1% 8 1% Table: NZB internal data by % of gross spend A broader buying bench In 2026, 218 individual buying groups competed for 422 Book 1 yearlings, purchasing an average of 1.94 horses per buyer. That compares with 217 buying groups in 2025, who purchased an average of 2.11 horses from 457 horses sold.https://bitofayarn.com David Ellis has been the leading buyer at Karaka for more than two decades and his influence on the sale remains significant. Over the past five years, however, his purchasing profile has evolved alongside the expansion of Te Akau’s Australian operations. In 2026, Ellis purchased 17 Book 1 yearlings for NZ$4.26 million, down from 31 yearlings and NZ$8.07 million in 2022.https://bitofayarn.com David Ellis | Image courtesy of Trish Dunell In practical terms, a similar number of buyers were ending up with fewer horses, increasing competitive pressure and reducing the ability of any one buyer to dominate the catalogue. year https://bitofayarn.com lots sold median buyers lots per buyers number of buyers who bought one lot per cent buyers one lot top buyer by volume lots bought top buyer gross 2026 567 422 $140,000 218 2 139 64% David Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ) 17 $4,260,000 2025 661 457 $110,000 217 2 130 60% Mr DC Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ) 26 $4,497,500 2024 682 473 $120,000 253 2 159 63% Mr DC Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ) 25 $5,700,000 2023 644 461 $130,000 229 2 138 60% Mr DC Ellis CNZM (BAFNZ) 26 $6,035,000 2022 636 430 $100,000 212 2 133 63% Mr DC Ellis 31 $8,070,000 Table: Buyer behavoiur at NZB Contracted catalogue but similar vendor figures Despite the reduction in sale size, the number of vendors represented in Book 1 has stayed fairly static across the past five years. In 2026, the 567 yearlings catalogued were spread across 42 vendors, who presented an average of 13.5 yearlings each. The peak number of vendors was in 2023 when 48 different vendors showcased horses in book 1. Cambridge Stud | Image courtesy of Cambridge Stud Cambridge Stud was the leading vendors by lots sold in 2026, beating Waikato Stud into second from the top slot they’d held the previous four years.https://bitofayarn.com Cambridge Stud sold 50 yearlings in 2026. year lots sold median vendors avg yearlings catalogued per vendor biggest vendor lots sold gross 2026 567 422 140,000 42 14 Cambridge Stud 50 $10,640,000 2025 661 457 110,000 44 15 Waikato Stud Ltd 47 $6,010,000 2024 682 473 120,000 46 15 Waikato Stud Ltd 59 $8,730,000 2023 644 461 130,000 48 13 Waikato Stud Ltd 53 $7,792,500 2022 636 430 100,000 44 15 Waikato Stud Ltd 39 $7,860,000 Table: Vendor data over the last five years Stallion mix in Book 1 Across the past five years, the percentage of yearlings by New Zealand based stallions has stayed static at 72% of the catalogue, with Australian-based stallions making up the remainder of the yearlings presented.https://bitofayarn.com year lots nz based aus based international nz % 2026 567 406 159 2 72% 2025 661 465 195 1 70% 2024 682 509 171 2 75% 2023 644 452 192 0 70% 2022 636 458 178 0 72% Table: Sire location in NZB Book 1 Quote
Chief Stipe Posted 12 hours ago Author Posted 12 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Measured by median, 2026 stands as the strongest Book 1 result of the past five years, with NZ$140,000 marking a clear step up from the NZ$110,000 recorded in 2025. Importantly, that lift came without an expansion in catalogue size - reinforcing that the market moved because buyers were prepared to pay more per horse, not because more horses were offered. So a strong sale. Quote
Murray Fish Posted 6 hours ago Posted 6 hours ago 4 hours ago, curious said: Looks strong today too. High clearance rate. any estimate of the % that made a Profit? Quote
Chief Stipe Posted 4 hours ago Author Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, Murray Fish said: any estimate of the % that made a Profit? I presume you mean sellers? That would be impossible to accurately work out unless you knew the individual circumstances of each breeder and their costs. Quote
curious Posted 1 hour ago Posted 1 hour ago Stellar Summer Sale Closes out Karaka 2026 29 January 2026 Stew McGregor leads his yearling (Lot 958) around the Karaka Sales ring. The final session of NZB’s 100th National Yearling Sale took place at Karaka on Thursday, with a strong inaugural Karaka Summer Sale. 112 yearlings sold for a total aggregate of more than $3.4 million at an average of $30,612. Six lots sold for $100,000 or more which added to a solid clearance rate of 81%. NZB Managing Director Andrew Seabrook was elated for all those involved in the historic week. "To sum it up, this week we've turned over $9.6 million more than last year, with 79 less horses catalogued." "We're just over the moon, seeing these results from the new format. "The Karaka Summer Sale today was one of the strongest sessions, almost matching Book 2 results from last year. "It's just been a phenomenal week all around, celebrating such a big milestone in New Zealand thoroughbred history, and returning almost $96 million back to breeders. "Our vendors have done an incredible job presenting their yearlings, our buyers supporting the Sale so well and our whole NZB team who have all contributed to its success. "We're looking forward to the demand for our yearlings continuing to our Online Yearling Sale, where of course the outstanding filly Well Written was purchased from." The top lot of the day came when first time vendor Stew McGregor offered his sole yearling. The colt by emerging sire Armory out of Satono Aladdin mare Hanako (Lot 958), was knocked down to John Foote Bloodstock for $130,000. “We’re so, so thrilled,” commented an emotional McGregor. “To have that amount of people and trainers come through and inspect him, it’s really neat. We hope he’s got an exciting future for us to follow.” The well-known Waikato Hunt member praised his surrounding stud farms for all their help. “Dean Hawkins, Windsor Park Stud and others around me have been instrumental in helping me along the way,” added McGregor. “It’s a team sport, alright.” Westbury Stud were leading vendors & their resident stallion Redwood was leading sire. Pictured: Lot 958 The leading vendor by aggregate and average for the Karaka Summer Sale was Westbury Stud who sold seven lots for $432,000 at an average of $61,714. The leading buyer at the end of selling of the final session was Victorian trainer Patrick Payne, having purchased three lots for $236,000. This included Lot 938, a colt for $100,000 out of the leading sire of the session in Redwood. All yearlings purchased are eligible for the Karaka Millions Series featuring the $1m TAB Karaka Millions 2YO (1200m), followed by the $1.5m TAB Karaka Millions 3YO (1600m) as well as the NZB Mega Maiden Bonus Series with $1m in bonuses up for grabs across 40 maiden races each season. The Karaka Summer Sale is further boosted by a $200,000 Karaka Millions bonus. For the first Karaka Summer Sale graduate home in both the 2027 $1m TAB Karaka Millions 2YO and 2028 $1.5m TAB Karaka Millions 3YO, $100,000 will be split evenly between the vendor and purchaser for each race. Entries close Monday 2 March 2026. To enquire about Passed Lots from the Karaka Summer Sale contact Patrick Cunningham on +64 21 181 5898 or email Patrick.Cunningham@nzb.co.nz, or Andrew Buick on +64 27 555 0640 or email Andrew.Buick@nzb.co.nz. Attention now turns to the National Online Yearling Sale, where superstar filly Well Written (Written Tycoon) was purchased for $80,000. Set to take place on Gavelhouse Plus, with bidding closing from 6pm on 14 April. Entries open early February via NZB’s portal. View the full Karaka Summer Sale results here. Catch the highlights and Lot-by-Lot footage from the Karaka Summer Sale here. Quote
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