Chief Stipe Posted June 4 Posted June 4 12 hours ago, Shab said: Ripping out around 25% in takeout you’re never going to grow it. I was starting to think you knew what you were talking about until this comment. Quote
curious Posted June 4 Posted June 4 20 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: I was starting to think you knew what you were talking about until this comment. That's correct for trifectas, first 4s and quaddies isn't it? Quote
Chief Stipe Posted June 4 Posted June 4 6 minutes ago, curious said: That's correct for trifectas, first 4s and quaddies isn't it? Yes. It is 21 to 25% in Australia. However a serious punter wouldn't be targeting those bet type pools. Quote
curious Posted June 4 Posted June 4 15 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Yes. It is 21 to 25% in Australia. However a serious punter wouldn't be targeting those bet type pools. That's definitely true. Quote
Shab Posted June 4 Posted June 4 Ripping out UP TO around 25% in takeout - happy now? I wouldn’t know how to put those bets on but it’s not about me it’s about getting as many people betting as much as you can on racing Quote
Chief Stipe Posted June 5 Posted June 5 4 hours ago, Shab said: Ripping out UP TO around 25% in takeout - happy now? I wouldn’t know how to put those bets on but it’s not about me it’s about getting as many people betting as much as you can on racing You gave the impression that 25% takeout is the norm when it isn't. There is still value available in the markets. Quote
Murray Fish Posted June 5 Posted June 5 21 hours ago, Shab said: Ripping out around 25% in takeout you’re never going to grow it yip... I very directly brought that to one CEO at a public forum, a few years back! He was going on about getting younger people punting!! Asking how anyone with a ouch of betting logic could be betting into @25% others at 30+%, I pointed out how if anyone ever asks me about 'race betting' showing them simple stuff like that which they will be up against suggests you wouldn't touch it with others money! I can share a story about being the House, on a 20% take out. Kelly Pool, De Lux Billardsroom Palm Nth, mid 70s into mid 80's (I did have 4 years OE), sometimes games ran for 12 hours!!! It was almost embarrassing how much the house took!!! It Instantly Taught me a massive betting lesion, racing at the time, the take out was around the same! Hence, 98% of my bets would have been w and p and the odd Q.. totally avoiding all the exotics!!! I have seen friends lose Millions over the years on them! Glad to be in the process of putting my punting cue back in the rack! Amusingly, out of the blue a offer popped up in one of our acc.. feck em! no! Quote
Shab Posted June 5 Posted June 5 1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said: You gave the impression that 25% takeout is the norm when it isn't. There is still value available in the markets. Can you give any examples? Quote
Shab Posted June 5 Posted June 5 1 hour ago, Murray Fish said: Amusingly, out of the blue a offer popped up in one of our acc.. feck em! no! Are you nuts mate? Free money. Take advantage and get some eye fillet while it’s on special for less than $50 kg this week at Woolworths. Now that’s value Quote
Chief Stipe Posted June 5 Posted June 5 23 hours ago, Shab said: but it’s not about me it’s about getting as many people betting as much as you can on racing No it's not about "getting as many people betting as much as you can on racing". It is about running a profitable business to enable that profit to fund racing stakes. You want more people betting hoping the takeout (overround) margin drops so you can improve your margin with less effort. 1 Quote
Chief Stipe Posted June 5 Posted June 5 18 hours ago, Murray Fish said: yip... I very directly brought that to one CEO at a public forum, a few years back! He was going on about getting younger people punting!! Asking how anyone with a ouch of betting logic could be betting into @25% others at 30+%, I pointed out how if anyone ever asks me about 'race betting' showing them simple stuff like that which they will be up against suggests you wouldn't touch it with others money! But the takeout/overround rate is the last thing to consider. You would be better to educate young punters on how to frame a market and determine the value before adjusting for the overhead. Even young people understand that someone offering a service needs to make a profit. 18 hours ago, Murray Fish said: I can share a story about being the House, on a 20% take out. Kelly Pool, De Lux Billardsroom Palm Nth, mid 70s into mid 80's (I did have 4 years OE), sometimes games ran for 12 hours!!! It was almost embarrassing how much the house took!!! It Instantly Taught me a massive betting lesion, racing at the time, the take out was around the same! But if the house's sole source of revenue was Kelly Pool and they didn't take a percentage then eventually there wouldn't be any pool balls or pool tables or eventually a house. The key is factoring in the house percentage in race betting after you have framed the market and determined what is or isn't value. At 25% you can still find value. Quote
Shab Posted June 6 Posted June 6 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: At 25% you can still find value. Your chances of doing that and making long term profit of any reasonable amount are about the same as All Whites winning World Cup. Looking forward to the examples though Quote
Shab Posted June 6 Posted June 6 2 hours ago, Chief Stipe said: But the takeout/overround rate is the last thing to consider Probably more like the first thing to consider Quote
Chief Stipe Posted June 6 Posted June 6 25 minutes ago, Shab said: Probably more like the first thing to consider Why when you know it changes from the first market to the start time? Why when even if the percentage is 25% there can still be value? I gather you are not all that serious about wagering. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted June 6 Posted June 6 38 minutes ago, Shab said: Your chances of doing that and making long term profit of any reasonable amount are about the same as All Whites winning World Cup. Not correct. 39 minutes ago, Shab said: Looking forward to the examples though You now want me to pick winners for you or find value? Quote
Shab Posted June 6 Posted June 6 19 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: 58 minutes ago, Shab said: Your chances of doing that and making long term profit of any reasonable amount are about the same as All Whites winning World Cup. Not correct. Probably not correct. There’s a far greater chance All Whites winning World Cup Quote
Shab Posted June 6 Posted June 6 22 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: You now want me to pick winners for you or find value? Just give some runners and price you got on tab. Then we’ll compare to BSP. If you beat BSP you win. Quote
Chief Stipe Posted June 6 Posted June 6 7 minutes ago, Shab said: Just give some runners and price you got on tab. Then we’ll compare to BSP. If you beat BSP you win. BSP compares the Betfair Starting Price with the Tote final price. A 13% advantage to the BSP. I very rarely bet on the Tote. I gather you are VPN'ing to Betfair? Quote
Chief Stipe Posted June 6 Posted June 6 16 minutes ago, Shab said: Probably not correct. There’s a far greater chance All Whites winning World Cup Explain why you think that is the case. Quote
Shab Posted June 6 Posted June 6 8 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: 21 minutes ago, Shab said: BSP compares the Betfair Starting Price with the Tote final price. A 13% advantage to the BSP. You what? You have a bet BSP commission comes off your winnings. BSP is only going to be used here to measure your value. Positive or negative. That way you only have to give a few examples and no winners required. Otherwise we’ll be here forever seeing if you’re right Quote
Chief Stipe Posted June 6 Posted June 6 17 minutes ago, Shab said: You what? You have a bet BSP commission comes off your winnings. Yes which presumable reduces the Betfair SP advantage to around 5% over the Tote price. 17 minutes ago, Shab said: BSP is only going to be used here to measure your value. But it isn't a valid comparison. Are you saying that Betfair has a lower takeout rate and therefore you are more likely to win in the long run? 17 minutes ago, Shab said: Positive or negative. That way you only have to give a few examples and no winners required. On that basis Betfair has already done the comparison and the average difference is 13% before Betfair commission. Or are you asking that can I find a better Fixed Odds price that the Betfair Starting Price? What I inferred was that even at a 25% takeout/overround you can still find value. You seem to say it is impossible. Quote
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