Thomass Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 3 hours ago, mardigras said: Of course you can. But what do the readers on here get from you telling them your view. They can't use the information in any way themselves. Your view has told them absolutely zero except apparently you believe blinkers work and maybe even you make money from their use. That's as useful as me saying I believe horses starting with the letter 'L' works. And I make money from them. And I often see top trainers winning with them also. So excuse me if I trust that method over yours. The readers can't use that information in any way themselves. Useful. Nope. Just like your post. Although we do like to hear that you think blinkers are useful and you make money from them. Good on you. Just as they probably like to hear I make money from horses starting with the 'L' - although I doubt readers really want to read that. It must be great to be back debating stuff?? But let's get serious...at least make sense when you come to the table...and at least bring something new and improved... Just to remind peeps about you and Bazz's concept of 'form analysis' when it comes to 'cop the f on' "when we hear the rail at Whanganui is as dead as a possum that's been road killed...we do what the rest don't...and action 'value' for those on the rail" That alone consigns yous fellas 'thinking' on punting here to total dunce class... ...and of course the idea that superior form races...back to mid weak...with Blinkers first time...is like investing on letter 'L' neddys... ...is TOTAL LOON territory But let's remind readers once again what your 'analysis' ignores while looking for peak performances and/or 'speed ratings'... ...you ignore unlucky runs, wide without cover ( "they do it in Harness..what's the diff"?) et el.... So a neddy may have finally matured...raced in career best form in a Black Type or ANY race actually...been unlucky and/or raced without cover 4 wide... ...and you've made ABSOLUTELY NO alteration to your speed 'ratings'...or it's suitability to certain tracks wrt past performances there...because " other horses who haven't raced there may also be suited...so I ignore course stats" Yea that.... ..but we know you do counterintuitive so well... ..it's GROSS IGNORANCE under another banner...just give up is my advice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 14 hours ago, mardigras said: Which leads me to repeat my previous indications. Why bother with worrying about the gear change given not a single person here is able to provide a single horse that will benefit from the application - before the races. Yep...what they do is... Form analysis...including comparing superior form race neddys cf to their opposition's form in this race. ...taking into account 'excuses' et el... ...then they 'weight' things like Blinkers On if said Trainer knows wtf they're doing... ...it's so basic....even your relative Baldrick gets it... ...and he's as thick as a pig in slops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Same old shit, different day. Those things you say I ignore. Yep. I ignore. I don't do guesses and I don't do stats. And still not a single horse mentioned before the races that is going to benefit from applied head gear. But the letter 'L is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, Thomass said: and of course the idea that superior form races...back to mid weak...with Blinkers first time Out of the hundreds of examples of this each year how do you choose which one's to back or do you back them all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, Thomass said: So a neddy may have finally matured...raced in career best form in a Black Type or ANY race actually...been unlucky and/or raced without cover 4 wide. How do you determine that a horse has "finally matured"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 29 minutes ago, mardigras said: Same old shit, different day. Those things you say I ignore. Yep. I ignore. I don't do guesses and I don't do stats. And still not a single horse mentioned before the races that is going to benefit from applied head gear. But the letter 'L is looking good. That's right...it's my mission in life to keep reminding peeps just how RIDICULOUS your 'dissertations' are...especially when you keep regurgitating the L nonsense.. Tattoo this across the old noggin "If said neddy has proven superior form, as shown in serious form analysis including 'unlucky, wide without cover et el', now racing inferior neddys, as shown in serious form analysis...then get on" Your head's way big enough for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 33 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: Out of the hundreds of examples of this each year how do you choose which one's to back or do you back them all? Oh ffs...I thought we'd done with the stupid q's? Back them all eh? For the hard of hearing... If said neddy has accomplished the 'superior form in superior class back to inferior...and said neddy gets Blinkers on...then Punters trust the Trainer thinks EVEN more juice can be squeezed from said lemon...add 20%... Turns A Lemon Tart into a lemon tart Royale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Thomass said: That's right...it's my mission in life to keep reminding peeps just how RIDICULOUS your 'dissertations' are...especially when you keep regurgitating the L nonsense.. Tattoo this across the old noggin "If said neddy has proven superior form, as shown in serious form analysis including 'unlucky, wide without cover et el', now racing inferior neddys, as shown in serious form analysis...then get on" Your head's way big enough for that Oh ffs...I thought we'd done with the stupid answers? The L to anyone reading this is exactly the same as 'Blinkers on' to anyone reading this. Not one iota of difference. Since you are incapable of explaining WHEN blinkers on works before the race. Only ever afterwards. Which I can do with the letter L the same way. Tattoo this across your noggin. "If said neddy has proven superior ability, as shown in serious form analysis excluding 'unlucky, wide without cover et el', now racing neddy's with inferior ability, as shown in serious form analysis...then get on" - An add 20% if starting with the letter L. Edited October 25, 2019 by mardigras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, Thomass said: If said neddy has accomplished the 'superior form in superior class back to inferior...and said neddy gets Blinkers on...then Punters trust the Trainer thinks EVEN more juice can be squeezed from said lemon...add 20%... Which horse do you BACK - all of them that meet this criteria? Unless you want to go broke I doubt it. Which brings us to the point. Assuming that you don't back them all at the end of the day you differentiate what you back from what you don't by assessing the horse's performance relative to the field it is racing against. You also assess value in terms of relative price albeit in a rudimentary way. So to cut a long story short you take the long way to get to the point where someone like Mardi starts and finishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 (edited) 1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said: Which horse do you BACK - all of them that meet this criteria? Unless you want to go broke I doubt it. Which brings us to the point. Assuming that you don't back them all at the end of the day you differentiate what you back from what you don't by assessing the horse's performance relative to the field it is racing against. You also assess value in term so price albeit in a rudimentary way. So to cut a long story short you take the long way to get to the point where someone like Mardi starts and finishes. Exactly. I was putting them up previously. He didn't like that since there were so many, the results even with the odd winner, were poor. Because the idea is totally flawed. Edited October 25, 2019 by mardigras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Centaur Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 hours ago, mardigras said: Exactly. I was putting them up previously. He didn't like that since there were so many, the results even with the odd winner, were poor. Because the idea is totally flawed. I've known trainers putting blinkers on when they are peaking the horse and also applying the needle. Explaining the form turnaround by way of blinkers being put on is very convenient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Here are the facts. The letter R is the most profitable with a mere -11% loss to level stakes over the past couple of years. The letter L performs well, 4th best at -15%. Certainly you could be outperforming your mates backing either of these two well-performed letters. First time blinkers performers aren't so flash, at -19%. Far better than the letter Q though which sits at a devastating -46% ROI. The most intriguing outcome is the correlation between letters and their scrabble tile value: Clearly what we are seeing here is a subconscious bias on the part of owners and trainers towards giving bad horses 'junky' names in the hope that this will somehow make them more special. Like celebrities who give their children stupid names because they are worried their spawn won't be as special as they themselves have become. Hop on board the scrabble train, what could go wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 hours ago, mardigras said: Same old shit, different day. Those things you say I ignore. Yep. I ignore. I don't do guesses and I don't do stats. And still not a single horse mentioned before the races that is going to benefit from applied head gear. But the letter 'L is looking good. J & M so far, bloody close Mardy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 23 minutes ago, The Centaur said: I've known trainers putting blinkers on when they are peaking the horse and also applying the needle. Explaining the form turnaround by way of blinkers being put on is very convenient. The only trainer in recent times to have put blinkers on and return a positive ROI is none other than Darren Weir. Just a superior trainer I guess. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, barryb said: J & M so far, bloody close Mardy. When you take a little bit either side as one does, the rewards are there for the taking barryb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 In race 4 I have found a blueprint special. Lustful Lady at $51, surely 2 Ls makes it a doublely strong bet?. Just Get On. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 & then double up on Lady Blue in the 7th. Thanks for the great insights here Mardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Oh shit, I left out Leaf in the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 hours ago, Sandpiper said: Here are the facts. The letter R is the most profitable with a mere -11% loss to level stakes over the past couple of years. The letter L performs well, 4th best at -15%. Certainly you could be outperforming your mates backing either of these two well-performed letters. First time blinkers performers aren't so flash, at -19%. Far better than the letter Q though which sits at a devastating -46% ROI. The most intriguing outcome is the correlation between letters and their scrabble tile value: Clearly what we are seeing here is a subconscious bias on the part of owners and trainers towards giving bad horses 'junky' names in the hope that this will somehow make them more special. Like celebrities who give their children stupid names because they are worried their spawn won't be as special as they themselves have become. Hop on board the scrabble train, what could go wrong. Oh my...If one lemming comes to the cliff...the rest follow I guess? Are you the same clown just starting off in this game... And gave us this gem in 'form analysis' 101... Not included: unlucky runs, wide runs, Sectionals. Overseas races next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 4 hours ago, Sandpiper said: Here are the facts. The letter R is the most profitable with a mere -11% loss to level stakes over the past couple of years. The letter L performs well, 4th best at -15%. Certainly you could be outperforming your mates backing either of these two well-performed letters. First time blinkers performers aren't so flash, at -19%. Far better than the letter Q though which sits at a devastating -46% ROI. The most intriguing outcome is the correlation between letters and their scrabble tile value: Clearly what we are seeing here is a subconscious bias on the part of owners and trainers towards giving bad horses 'junky' names in the hope that this will somehow make them more special. Like celebrities who give their children stupid names because they are worried their spawn won't be as special as they themselves have become. Hop on board the scrabble train, what could go wrong. Useful stuff Sandpiper. At least as useful as the other suggestions on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 What an absolute load of childish rubbish in this thread. Any horseman knows that blinkers can be an advantage to a horses chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fred said: What an absolute load of childish rubbish in this thread. Any horseman knows that blinkers can be an advantage to a horses chances. I have never disputed that. What I've disputed is who can tell when they will be an advantage. Not one poster has so far been able to provide the 'when'. Without the when, the information is useless to a punter. Maybe you can tell us when they will be an advantage. Since it is 100% true, that of all the horses that get them, they perform overall far worse than those that don't. But all we get is the ones that have won - after the race. Very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All The Aces Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Well the one I liked with the blinkers on for the first time finished third. Unfortunately he is still a work in progress and still did things wrong again today. He will keep. However it was still a most successful day. Mardi perhaps you would like to tell me why you agreed with Fortune Patch on the other site. Got back, never raised a gallop finishing ninth whilst the stablemate wins by five lengths. Even Andrew Scott wrote off it's chances in the pre-race interview. I am shocked an expert such as yourself could get it so badly wrong. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, All The Aces said: Well the one I liked with the blinkers on for the first time finished third. Unfortunately he is still a work in progress and still did things wrong again today. He will keep. However it was still a most successful day. Mardi perhaps you would like to tell me why you agreed with Fortune Patch on the other site. Got back, never raised a gallop finishing ninth whilst the stablemate wins by five lengths. Even Andrew Scott wrote off it's chances in the pre-race interview. I am shocked an expert such as yourself could get it so badly wrong. ? A) I never listen to trainers. B) I don't understand why you think I got it so badly wrong. I didn't say it would win. I suggested it had a better chance than 6%. I don't think it is able to be proven whether it had a better or worse chance than that. If you think that means I got it so badly wrong then that's your view. Like your view on blinkers, your view hasn't got a lot of credibility. Just a bunch of opinions backed up by nothing to date. I'm very happy for people to have a different view to me. But at least back it up with 'something'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Please Aces & Tommo can you let us know which blinkered horses are the bets tomorrow before 11am. You will certainly know by then which ones you are backing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts