Portfolio Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 You did well Barry, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 11 hours ago, The Centaur said: There is another aspect to Barry's "day out". Myself at the races I keep a note of every horse entering the parade ring and as much of the behaviour afterwards until the jump When I put down "fat" as opposed to "bit fat" it usually means wait a few runs so I was surprized Barry had Colorado Bay as spot on but then there was three weeks for the trainer to get more more work into the horse something the trainer confirmed in the post race interview. Taking note of the size also important as sometimes guaging the size off the TV can be misleading. Another note I put down is "needle". Having trained a few I know what effect the needle can be. Definition of needle is not something illegal but the best legal "extra" a trainer can top a horse off with. In my day needle meant vitamin injection and there are tell tale signs to spot this like smell, special shine, demeanour etc. All trainers have a topping off routine when a horse is ready but nowadays particularly with the Baker/Forsman horses I can't seem to figure it out. Anyway Barry hope you also kept some notes from the day. The only issue I have with what you are suggesting is that it can create blinkered vision in that next time the horse runs and meets your criteria it’s easy to ignore the rest of the field. Every race is different, every horse every start is different. I don’t do what is known as traditional form study, I just can’t make it work for me and I find the edge is too small. I won’t go into what I do as it would be beyond the comprehension of the likes of Thomass. If on track I have a list of horses that I am keen to back and use the sighting of them to determine the level of investment and nothing else. Having been to hundreds of meetings you do develop a eye for what a winning horse looks like, unless you are Thomass and are looking for what colour blinkers it has. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 I would agree with barryb. I don''t do what he does. I also do my own thing which is beyond the comprehension of most. What I do try and do, is advise against listening to those that suggest certain things will help your punting when they are simply stupid suggestions that will lead people that follow to the poor house. Even if the person suggesting them says they make them money, then they have just been lucky - it happens. Ideas that suggest you can do a piece of form analysis and then apply some logic that has nothing specific related to the horse you want to back and claim it will make them a better bet. Steer clear of such nutters is the best advice I can give. One person on this site has done this a lot. But you will notice, he doesn't provide these gems pre race - or if he does, for some reason they have a history of losing. I guess they are just the rare exceptions. I'd also say, traditional form analysis is going to be far more difficult in finding an edge. More and more have at least that info and you need to outperform those people generally to get a margin allowing you to profit - if that is the goal. If you are happy just having fun and continuing on your path, then the likes of Thomass's selection theories are fine, but so would be the idea of using a dartboard be fine as well. Good luck. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 (edited) Steady boys..this has been done to death already Every Thoroughbred 'investor' has their own 'niches' Woddy goes for the algorithm niche...puts a bunch of stats in his PC program and ignores things like Visors...which he thought were sunnies for neddys...and "there's nothing wrong with the Eagle Farm track" Bazza goes for the Baker/Forsman Waterhouse idea of keeping their neddys on the pace and ready to strike...i.e. Fit f'ers...fair enough...and good on you Bazza...going to every meeting where you can view the stock as well as sell your Chippies to the hoi polloi... Bazza has previously said "I ignore weight" then comes out in another thread and says "and the 4kg claimer is great" He tipped Kyrie and didn't bother factoring in the Blinkers back on which the trainer told us yesterday "she needs badly".. after a shocking first upper without them Gibb's Daddy and a whole heap of Trainers before him...Lance's Daddy..used to take Blinkers off first up...for excellent results...on some, like Kyrie, it doesn't work... Largely my niche is form in a better class of field...back to inferior neddys...Shilllings for Jillings and his mates cliched it..."keep your horses in inferior company and yourself in superior company" And of course fit horses on bad tracks at this time of year....you know horses who can back up and take the work then enjoy the punishment... As an example I was on BLUETWENTYTWO at Te Teko ...superior form in full Premier day fields...back to midweek...then good form in Aus on unsuitable tracks...back here first up with 3 kgs off after a good trial....then I trusted trainer Collett with the TOngue Tie on first up...an extra 20% on the investment for that At 13's well overs... Woddy can't work form out here in NZ...stick to your Niche in country areas of Aus then Wod... ...leave real form analysis to the locals who have superior knowledge of local conditions and nuances here in NZ Edited June 18, 2018 by Thomass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Diceman's Been Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 Mr T Arse May I climb in where virgins generally fear to tread. I like following the money........especially those stables that LOVEAPUNT. Like today at Tamworth. Race 4. The best bred horse running round in Oz today. By a Royal Ascot winner (how timely) out of a fabulous mare who also won Royal Ascot week, the Nunthorpe Stakes to be precise, and, if not for some terrible bad luck would have won a lot more. This is a real nice filly. I loved her as a yearling but a few issues have meant she has been kept out of the top company you would normally expect a filly of this pedigree running round in. I am reliably informed she has been as fat as Tomarse's wallet for her first two runs back over sprint distances, but still the money was there to say she might get there on class alone. Today she is up to a middle distance and we should see a much improved performance. Time, and money, will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Thomass said: ..then I trusted trainer Collett with the TOngue Tie on first up...an extra 20% on the investment for that You trusted the trainer on a gear change? I thought you wanted to know what it had for breakfast and make your own judgement on that? Do you add the 20% because you trust the trainer or because the horse has a tongue tie on first up? Edited June 18, 2018 by curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 1 minute ago, curious said: You trusted the trainer on a gear change? I thought you wanted to know what it had for breakfast and make your own judgement on that? T wants to know the consistency of its shit, taken in daily samples. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 1 minute ago, barryb said: T wants to know the consistency of its shit, taken in daily samples. To be fair, I think he'd know a lot about consistency of (bull) shit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Diceman's Been Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 When an honest man speaks, he says only what he believes to be true; and for the liar, it is correspondingly indispensable that he considers his statements to be false. For the bullshitter, however, all these bets are off: he is neither on the side of the true nor on the side of the false. His eye is not on the facts at all, as the eyes of the honest man and of the liar are, except insofar as they may be pertinent to his interest in getting away with what he says. He does not care whether the things he says describe reality correctly. He just picks them out, or makes them up, to suit his purpose.” A quote from Tomarse from 2015, that I found in the HONEST PUNTERS FORUM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 That last post from thomass was hilarious. All those theories. And even the odd selection - after the event of course. Put up before the event or shut up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 Best I correct thomass since he is not one to spout facts. I don't use stats. I use facts. Thomass uses stats - especially ones that aren't even related to the horse he wants to back. Very funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 1 hour ago, The Diceman's Been said: Mr T Arse May I climb in where virgins generally fear to tread. I like following the money........especially those stables that LOVEAPUNT. Like today at Tamworth. Race 4. The best bred horse running round in Oz today. By a Royal Ascot winner (how timely) out of a fabulous mare who also won Royal Ascot week, the Nunthorpe Stakes to be precise, and, if not for some terrible bad luck would have won a lot more. This is a real nice filly. I loved her as a yearling but a few issues have meant she has been kept out of the top company you would normally expect a filly of this pedigree running round in. I am reliably informed she has been as fat as Tomarse's wallet for her first two runs back over sprint distances, but still the money was there to say she might get there on class alone. Today she is up to a middle distance and we should see a much improved performance. Time, and money, will tell. Good on you big D for finding your niche in life... I went through Tamworth once...and Tamworth went through me...after I indulged in a pint of Dr Jurds Jungle Juice...f moi Never been the same sunce... Ive 'loved' a lot of nice fillies meself over the years as well D... ...and the pay back...if I had a dollar for every particle of sand kicked in the moose as a result..I'd be rich az Lets hope this Tammy Tip doesn't do to you what I did to those fillies then D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 36 minutes ago, curious said: You trusted the trainer on a gear change? I thought you wanted to know what it had for breakfast and make your own judgement on that? Do you add the 20% because you trust the trainer or because the horse has a tongue tie on first up? Yes of course..especially as good a trainer as Jimmy.. I analysed its superior form in superior full fields on Premier days...good enough to journey to Australia and show form on unsuitable hard tracks... ..then trusted Jimmy this neddy needed a TT to perform at its best...plus 20% Read this from Kentucky Equine Research...you may even alter your bets on a maiden neddy you've signalled out as superior and with value... ...or you may simply learn something for a change.. "For group 1, exposed horses were 1.85 times more likely than unexposed horses to have improved earnings in their next three races after the date when a tongue tie was first used. For group 2, exposed horses were 3.6 times more likely than matched unexposed horses to have improved earnings in their next three races after the date when a tongue tie was first used. For group 3, exposed horses were 4.24 times more likely than matched unexposed horses to have improved earnings in their next three races after the date when a tongue tie was used, and 5.05 times more likely than matched unexposed horses to have improved earnings in their next five races after the date when a tongue tie was used." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 43 minutes ago, barryb said: T wants to know the consistency of its shit, taken in daily samples. Btw Bazza... Did you hear Chris Gibbs say " I think the rail was playing differently than usual....further out appeared to be the place" And you were complaining about the rail and on speed bias...were you pissed? If we'd had the pen. readings across the width...even to the 10M mark... ...we'd have known before the first where the fast lane was ...and it wasn't the rail... ..who knew...not you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 Funniest post ever. You love your stats, no doubt about it. How come you can't even come up with just a few selections to help the others out. Don't tell me, you don't trust your own brilliant methods. Even just before the race after your bet (with the extra 20% is already on). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wally Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, Thomass said: Good on you big D for finding your niche in life... I went through Tamworth once...and Tamworth went through me...after I indulged in a pint of Dr Jurds Jungle Juice...f moi Never been the same sunce... Ive 'loved' a lot of nice fillies meself over the years as well D... ...and the pay back...if I had a dollar for every particle of sand kicked in the moose as a result..I'd be rich az Lets hope this Tammy Tip doesn't do to you what I did to those fillies then D whats that tommy not riding them right out and leaving them feeling a little it bit deflated im sure a bullock well fulfil his engagement and ride the little filly right out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, Thomass said: Yes of course..especially as good a trainer as Jimmy.. I analysed its superior form in superior full fields on Premier days...good enough to journey to Australia and show form on unsuitable hard tracks... ..then trusted Jimmy this neddy needed a TT to perform at its best...plus 20% Read this from Kentucky Equine Research...you may even alter your bets on a maiden neddy you've signalled out as superior and with value... ...or you may simply learn something for a change.. "For group 1, exposed horses were 1.85 times more likely than unexposed horses to have improved earnings in their next three races after the date when a tongue tie was first used. For group 2, exposed horses were 3.6 times more likely than matched unexposed horses to have improved earnings in their next three races after the date when a tongue tie was first used. For group 3, exposed horses were 4.24 times more likely than matched unexposed horses to have improved earnings in their next three races after the date when a tongue tie was used, and 5.05 times more likely than matched unexposed horses to have improved earnings in their next five races after the date when a tongue tie was used." Yep, I read that study about 8 years ago Thommo. Most trainers know that I think. What's your point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, Thomass said: Btw Bazza... Did you hear Chris Gibbs say " I think the rail was playing differently than usual....further out appeared to be the place" And you were complaining about the rail and on speed bias...were you pissed? If we'd had the pen. readings across the width...even to the 10M mark... ...we'd have known before the first where the fast lane was ...and it wasn't the rail... ..who knew...not you T I found a few big winners before the races, did you?. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, curious said: Yep, I read that study about 8 years ago Thommo. Most trainers know that I think. What's your point? You appeared piqued that I'd trusted both the trainer...and that TT's have such a good ROI... Having sorted a superior needy out, imho, what's wrong with trusting the trainer an even greater performance is possible taking into account both the superior trainer and the knowledge TT's improve performances on most neddys compared with the control group? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 (edited) Thomass mate if you had known where the fast lane was from Pen readings, please tell us a how you would have used that info?. Just for your information, in NZ horses dont run in lanes, which horse would be out in the fast lane in say race 5 T. I have no idea and I would love you to tell me your theory on it. & please dont insult us all by saying the ones drawn out. Edited June 19, 2018 by barryb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, barryb said: T I found a few big winners before the races, did you?. Not the discussion B... You poo poo'd my method of selecting winners and that yours and Woddys 'niches' were far superior... ...please correct the assumption if I'm wong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Thomass said: and that TT's have such a good ROI... ROI? Any evidence of that from a punting perspective? I'm surprised that you now trust the trainer on this. I thought you relied on stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Thomass said: Not the discussion B... You poo poo'd my method of selecting winners and that yours and Woddys 'niches' were far superior... ...please correct the assumption if I'm wong? What method, you dont have one before the races are run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Thomass said: Not the discussion B... You poo poo'd my method of selecting winners and that yours and Woddys 'niches' were far superior... ...please correct the assumption if I'm wong? Your assumption is correct. Your methods are flawed whether or not you been lucky enough to win here and there. Everyone's niche is better than what you do, if they don't do the kinds of things you write about doing. Edited June 19, 2018 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 1 minute ago, barryb said: Thomass mate if you had of known where the fast lane was from Pen readings, please tell us a how you would have used that info?. Just for your information, in NZ horses dont run in lanes, which horse would be out in the fast lane in say race 5 T. I have no idea and I would love you to tell me your theory on it. & please dont insult us all by saying the ones drawn out. Obviously if the rails off..,as Gibbs told us... ...it allows back runners a far greater chance of finishing over the top out wider...as many did... ...you complained about the fierce usual bias there...but it wasn't in play last week ...and it didn't have much to do with bunnies going nuts in front either... Did the Trackman alter his usual preparation with the constant complaints of leaders bias? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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