wally Posted October 11, 2018 Author Share Posted October 11, 2018 any tips for timaru today im heading down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagship uberalles Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 hour ago, wally said: any tips for timaru today im heading down Take your raincoat and thermals! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wally Posted October 11, 2018 Author Share Posted October 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Flagship uberalles said: Take your raincoat and thermals! just stopping at temuka to see if anyones seen tommy word has it he was seen whitebaiting at orari mouth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poisoned Dwarf Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 20 hours ago, wally said: just stopping at temuka to see if anyones seen tommy word has it he was seen whitebaiting at orari mouth " whitebaiting " or another kind of " bating " ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Poisoned Dwarf said: " whitebaiting " or another kind of " bating " ? that would be from his master class Mr (or Ms) Dwarf. Edited October 11, 2018 by FeelTheFear 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weasel Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 11 hours ago, Flagship uberalles said: Take your raincoat and thermals! Isn't there a statue of Phar Lap there? If there is, put $1 each way on it..even giving them 90 years head start the Red Terror would probably still beat all them maidens ... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wally Posted October 12, 2018 Author Share Posted October 12, 2018 trapeze artist in the everest the cliffsof moher caulfield and real longshot outrageous caulfield race 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Caulfield race 2: Duca Valentinois should have a strong finish. Violate at $10 (Bet Easy FO) will get back but expect a move before turn and can finish strongly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Had a bet on baboonski in the last, very unlucky never got a gap on the rail, 9s for place and kolee 3 wide the trip and finished fourth, both these pick up a race in the near future. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 (edited) WOW, that's all I can say...maybe f in WOWSVILLE... What a MASSIVE betting Saturday...with almost every race here being a MAMMOTH investment opp...with BIG fields ...especially if you'd followed the 'Blue Print' too.. Where to start... Lets start with the 'Spec Maiden' form...this form is certainly 'special'.. And it started in the first at Hawera....and ended with the last at Mutts These races are indeed special wrt form...Premier days with horses set to run for bigger money, coming through the grades with fresh legs and usually younger horses... ....another key with OBRIGADO was the removal of Ear covers after having both Blinkers and EC on at the previous start...this made the difference and enabled the horse to fire up when needed... ..should have added more than the 10% for the change..Oh well But the 'Blue Print' had a double whammy in the last at Mutts...with a beaut ride by Kate...on an ultra fit neddy...with Spec Mai. Form and recently over Hurdles.. ..the hurdle race factor...back to the flat In recent weeks I can count at least 5 horses to have won back on the flat after Hurdling...3 at 30/1... Theres bad press here about 'Hurdlers' back racing on the flat...weird..they do it well in the Northern Hem...and obviously the Mel. Cup has Hurdle form history if you know anything about 'form'... ...Hurdling not only makes a neddy think...but gets it hard fit...it's no coincidence that Larneys Divine Duke had a simple Hurdle trial...then comes out to win 3 in a row.. Captain Orange was hard fit enough to lead all of the way and of course the 3kg allowance enabled the win by a snobs... And then there Larneys TWEEDDLEDEE...had raced within the week at times during its prep...part of the Blue Print...and in form...Larney "this horse was hard fit and seasoned"...yep ...and of course the fantastic course stats.... Way more to come...stand by bazz Edited October 14, 2018 by Thomass 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 What's with Te Aroha on Wednesday. The last 8 of 11 races are over 1400m. Two are over 1200m and the first race 2200m. Any stayers around? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wally Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 30 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: What's with Te Aroha on Wednesday. The last 8 of 11 races are over 1400m. Two are over 1200m and the first race 2200m. Any stayers around? tommys certainly not a stayer the princess said he is a 30second wonder 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelTheFear Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, wally said: tommys certainly not a stayer the princess said he is a 30second wonder only when on the 'juice' and blinkers added, normally 15 secs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 21 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said: only when on the 'juice' and blinkers added, normally 15 secs. Shit, now I am totally confused. I thought it was 20% for blinkers? how much for juice then?. & I guess its 18yr olds after Xmas for another 20%? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, barryb said: Shit, now I am totally confused. I thought it was 20% for blinkers? how much for juice then?. & I guess its 18yr olds after Xmas for another 20%? It's 20% for Blinkers...30% fresh up BO...that doesn't include first starts... 10% for normal changes like Ear Covers... Breslin post race "I think taking the ear covers off helped...but leaving the Blinkers on" Sure enough the horse took off after being far more excited and willing to fire up...and pissed in Bazz How was your day...Hawera being your f in go to course? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thomass said: 10% for normal changes like Ear Covers... Breslin post race "I think taking the ear covers off helped...but leaving the Blinkers on" Classic. This from the guy that states he doesn't listen to trainers yet how many times does he seem keen to quote them as if what they say should actually be listened to. I'm gonna have to add this gem to the blue print rules. 20% for x, 30% for y. Maybe some 10%. Nothing about the horse. Just the gear changes. I can't stop laughing, self humiliation is one thing, but this is ridiculous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, barryb said: Shit, now I am totally confused. I thought it was 20% for blinkers? how much for juice then?. & I guess its 18yr olds after Xmas for another 20%? It's easy Barry. You only actually have to remember one of the rules. If it wins, you backed it. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Great Saturday actually T I got Rock N Affair at $26 at Hawera Tweedledee at $18.00 & Sleeping Beauty at $5.50 at Matamata. Super weekend & none of it based on loon theories like you state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: Classic. This from the guy that states he doesn't listen to trainers yet how many times does he seem keen to quote them as if what they say should actually be listened to. I'm gonna have to add this gem to the blue print rules. 20% for x, 30% for y. Maybe some 10%. Nothing about the horse. Just the gear changes. I can't stop laughing, self humiliation is one thing, but this is ridiculous. Of course it's about the form of the horse... As said many times...after the Blue Print has identified the bet...I trust the trainer they think a gear change will make a difference... ...as in Breslin's take after the race... The only gear change I'll take solely on that fact...is Blinkers...but the price has to be at value... pretty simple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Thomass said: Of course it's about the form of the horse... As said many times...after the Blue Print has identified the bet...I trust the trainer they think a gear change will make a difference... ...as in Breslin's take after the race... The only gear change I'll take solely on that fact...is Blinkers...but the price has to be at value... pretty simple Getting funnier. This is simple. Like you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Just now, Thomass said: The only gear change I'll take solely on that fact...is Blinkers...but the price has to be at value... pretty simple What defines Value to you T?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, barryb said: Great Saturday actually T I got Rock N Affair at $26 at Hawera Tweedledee at $18.00 & Sleeping Beauty at $5.50 at Matamata. Super weekend & none of it based on loon theories like you state. Sweet...only one of note at your course then? Why didn't you follow the Blue Print wrt SUGAR RUSH?? Good G3 effort when unlucky 4 starts back...back to inferior class at bottom weight 7 units at 16's...easy The two Mutt neddys were the BP as well...Tweedle with the fit az seasoned form line...as explained...then outstanding course stats... SB Black Type form...back to inferior with the claim...home course...and outstanding fresh up record Well done on following the BP B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 T, I don't do after the races form like you do, I actually bet them before the race. Although I can see why you have a far superior s/r to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, barryb said: What defines Value to you T?. Fair question B...stay wit me I don't price every runner in every race as you know.. wast of f in time...I have a few nich Bluey's... After identifying those...I use a Unit strategy to incrementally increase those units...strength of field/class...track stats...app allowances...gear... I have a target value component....and anything beyond that is added value...so I'll increase the stake...incrementally Eg. I had Tweedle at 8 units...after the fitness Blue Print enacted itself...the course stats increased that by 40%... I identified value at 10's...then incrementally increased that to 14 units due to the $16 price tag.. And you B? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wally Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 geez this is all getting to hard may be time ill just bet on 2 up any theories there tommy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.