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Bit Of A Yarn

any longshot tips for today 10 to 1 over


wally

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WOW, that's all I can say...maybe f in WOWSVILLE...

What a MASSIVE betting Saturday...with almost every race here being a MAMMOTH investment opp...with BIG fields 

...especially if you'd followed the 'Blue Print' too..

Where to start...

Lets start with the 'Spec Maiden' form...this form is certainly 'special'..

And it started in the first at Hawera....and ended with the last at Mutts

These races are indeed special wrt form...Premier days with horses set to run for bigger money, coming through the grades with fresh legs and usually younger horses...

....another key with OBRIGADO was the removal of Ear covers after having both Blinkers and EC on at the previous start...this made the difference and enabled the horse to fire up when needed...

..should have added more than the 10% for the change..Oh well

But the 'Blue Print' had a double whammy in the last at Mutts...with a beaut ride by Kate...on an ultra fit neddy...with Spec Mai. Form and recently over Hurdles..

..the hurdle race factor...back to the flat

In recent weeks I can count at least 5 horses to have won back on the flat after Hurdling...3 at 30/1...

Theres bad press here about 'Hurdlers' back racing on the flat...weird..they do it well in the Northern Hem...and obviously the Mel. Cup has Hurdle form history if you know anything about 'form'...

...Hurdling not only makes a neddy think...but gets it hard fit...it's no coincidence that Larneys Divine Duke had a simple Hurdle trial...then comes out to win 3 in a row..

Captain Orange was hard fit enough to lead all of the way and of course the 3kg allowance enabled the win by a snobs...

And then there Larneys TWEEDDLEDEE...had raced within the week at times during its prep...part of the Blue Print...and in form...Larney "this horse was hard fit and seasoned"...yep

...and of course the fantastic course stats....

Way more to come...stand by bazz 

 

 

 

Edited by Thomass
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30 minutes ago, FeelTheFear said:

What's with Te Aroha on Wednesday. The last 8 of 11 races are over 1400m. Two are over 1200m and the first race 2200m. Any stayers around? 

tommys certainly not a stayer the princess said he is a 30second wonder

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8 minutes ago, barryb said:

Shit, now I am totally confused.

I thought it was 20% for blinkers? how much for juice then?.

& I guess its 18yr olds after Xmas for another 20%?

 

It's 20% for Blinkers...30% fresh up BO...that doesn't include first starts...

10% for normal changes like Ear Covers...

Breslin post race

"I think taking the ear covers off helped...but leaving the Blinkers on"

Sure enough the horse took off after being far more excited and willing to fire up...and pissed in Bazz

How was your day...Hawera being your f in go to course?

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2 minutes ago, Thomass said:

 

10% for normal changes like Ear Covers...

Breslin post race

"I think taking the ear covers off helped...but leaving the Blinkers on"

Classic. This from the guy that states he doesn't listen to trainers yet how many times does he seem keen to quote them as if what they say should actually be listened to.

I'm gonna have to add this gem to the blue print rules.

20% for x, 30% for y. Maybe some 10%. Nothing about the horse. Just the gear changes. I can't stop laughing, self humiliation is one thing, but this is ridiculous.

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2 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Classic. This from the guy that states he doesn't listen to trainers yet how many times does he seem keen to quote them as if what they say should actually be listened to.

I'm gonna have to add this gem to the blue print rules.

20% for x, 30% for y. Maybe some 10%. Nothing about the horse. Just the gear changes. I can't stop laughing, self humiliation is one thing, but this is ridiculous.

Of course it's about the form of the horse...

As said many times...after the Blue Print has identified the bet...I trust the trainer they think a gear change will make a difference...

...as in Breslin's take after the race...

The only gear change I'll take solely on that fact...is Blinkers...but the price has to be at value...

pretty simple

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1 minute ago, Thomass said:

Of course it's about the form of the horse...

As said many times...after the Blue Print has identified the bet...I trust the trainer they think a gear change will make a difference...

...as in Breslin's take after the race...

The only gear change I'll take solely on that fact...is Blinkers...but the price has to be at value...

pretty simple

Getting funnier. This is simple. Like you.

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2 minutes ago, barryb said:

Great Saturday actually T

I got Rock N Affair at $26 at Hawera

Tweedledee  at $18.00 & Sleeping Beauty at $5.50 at Matamata.

Super weekend & none of it based on loon theories like you state.

Sweet...only one of note at your course then?

Why didn't you follow the Blue Print wrt SUGAR RUSH??

Good G3 effort when unlucky 4 starts back...back to inferior class at bottom weight

7 units at 16's...easy

The two Mutt neddys were the BP as well...Tweedle with the fit az seasoned form line...as explained...then outstanding course stats...

SB Black Type form...back to inferior with the claim...home course...and outstanding fresh up record

Well done on following the BP B

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4 minutes ago, barryb said:

What defines Value to you T?.

 

Fair question B...stay wit me

I don't price every runner in every race as you know..

wast of f in time...I have a few nich Bluey's...

After identifying those...I use a Unit strategy to incrementally increase those units...strength of field/class...track stats...app allowances...gear...

I have a target value component....and anything beyond that is added value...so I'll increase the stake...incrementally

Eg. I had Tweedle at 8 units...after the fitness Blue Print enacted itself...the course stats increased that by 40%...

I identified value at 10's...then incrementally increased that to 14 units due to the $16 price tag..

And you B?

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