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Bit Of A Yarn

any longshot tips for today 10 to 1 over


wally

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14 minutes ago, curious said:

Estimates are not to do with any correlation or I'm not sure what you mean by that. If there's anything that will improve a fit horse by 5% please let me know. That's the difference between a decent maiden and Black Caviar. And no, I don't use sectionals at all. I find them irrelevant, but that's just me.

What gets your algorithms moving...spit it out ffs...time over distance covered...wide without cover...nude...

what gets the juices flowing? A GPS system attached to a Jockeys knobby bits??

5% obviously corresponds to when the horse is asked for an effort...instead of star gazing and gawking around at the 200M....

...a 5% improvement could translate to 2-3 L in total concentration mode...from the point it's asked to accelerate...

ffs...this is basic stuff

..like you and Woddy in the lotus position...face to face...dreaming about what could be if only one made the first move...

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5 hours ago, Thomass said:

Threads develop don't they?

It can be like a virus (Mardi grass) at times...but just inserting a whole bunch of 'tips' at 10's for willy Wally to suck other peeps brains over is a tad f in boring isn't it?

Its best willy develop his own strategies on 'how to' select winners from other punter's years of experience methinks...

Bazza reporting fresh from the course worked well and and was 'value added'

...tips without explanation, like Mardi grasses, is like smoking a pipe full of ink weed...

Reporting from the course i believe is the best way to snag outsiders. After all the markets mostly reflect the form and not the appearance. You won't get 50:1 with a horse won last four starts in record time yet you could with horse ticking all the boxes oncourse. If the 50:1 longshot misses its usually wise to follow it for a few starts. You have got 50 starts before you are behind the eight ball contrasting with a evens favourite where you are behind after two misses.

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1 hour ago, The Centaur said:

Reporting from the course i believe is the best way to snag outsiders. After all the markets mostly reflect the form and not the appearance. You won't get 50:1 with a horse won last four starts in record time yet you could with horse ticking all the boxes oncourse. If the 50:1 longshot misses its usually wise to follow it for a few starts. You have got 50 starts before you are behind the eight ball contrasting with a evens favourite where you are behind after two misses.

I'd say that is a pretty good way of finding them. But there are certainly other ways that don't require race attendance.

One of the key ways I'd suggest is not to use standard form analysis. It simply won't give you a lot of variance to what every one arrives at. And therefore no likely value on many runners. Many punters use the same types of things when looking at a runner. Where it placed, class of race it raced in, weight carried, blinkers on/gear changes, barrier. And then there are things like raced wide, unlucky etc etc. I know many that ignore just about every one of those things. And yet they win long term.

 

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8 hours ago, Thomass said:

Threads develop don't they?

It can be like a virus (Mardi grass) at times...but just inserting a whole bunch of 'tips' at 10's for willy Wally to suck other peeps brains over is a tad f in boring isn't it?

Its best willy develop his own strategies on 'how to' select winners from other punter's years of experience methinks...

Bazza reporting fresh from the course worked well and and was 'value added'

...tips without explanation, like Mardi grasses, is like smoking a pipe full of ink weed...

geez thommass your a very negative person are you under 5ft tall

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8 hours ago, Thomass said:

As I've said before Bazz..I ignore barriers for the punt...most are way overs and good Jockeys often ride for luck...

What I do, post race, is factor in neddys caught wide..especially without cover

Thats a big part of form analysis obviously...slow, over racing, checked, unlucky et el

This is part of form analysis 101...

Keewees going to Oz better be at the top of their game...

or they'll be badly found out...as many have yet again

just like that horse  molloy was involved in what was its name

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8 hours ago, Thomass said:

Threads develop don't they?

It can be like a virus (Mardi grass) at times...but just inserting a whole bunch of 'tips' at 10's for willy Wally to suck other peeps brains over is a tad f in boring isn't it?

Its best willy develop his own strategies on 'how to' select winners from other punter's years of experience methinks...

Bazza reporting fresh from the course worked well and and was 'value added'

...tips without explanation, like Mardi grasses, is like smoking a pipe full of ink weed...

i dont need to suck peoples brains the thread started as a suggestion no one has to back the tips its a bit of fun if you dont like it  tommy keep selling the girl giude cookies on the roadside we will all still support you

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8 hours ago, Thomass said:

What I do, post race, is factor in neddys caught wide..especially without cover

Thats a big part of form analysis obviously...slow, over racing, checked, unlucky et el

This is part of form analysis 101...

I think that might be a big part of your form analysis although it would be drawing a long bow to call what you do 'analysis'. I'm not sure anyone should follow this advice either. I don't. It more likely fits in with 'form analysis to give me the same results as all the rest' - and then wonder why their betting account is requiring another deposit like yours. 

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6 hours ago, Thomass said:

What gets your algorithms moving...spit it out ffs...time over distance covered...wide without cover...nude...

what gets the juices flowing? A GPS system attached to a Jockeys knobby bits??

5% obviously corresponds to when the horse is asked for an effort...instead of star gazing and gawking around at the 200M....

...a 5% improvement could translate to 2-3 L in total concentration mode...from the point it's asked to accelerate...

ffs...this is basic stuff

..like you and Woddy in the lotus position...face to face...dreaming about what could be if only one made the first move...

Wait.... so the 5% improvement only applies to a small percentage of the race ... 200m maybe?

I'm a big fan of time over distance covered though. Every race I've ever seen was won by the horse that ran the fastest time over the race distance.

GPS data would be interesting but if everyone had it, it would probably offer no advantage from a punting perspective, just like everyone knowing a horse has blinkers on doesn't.

As to the lotus position, you could try that but if your concurrent contemplations are based on the theories you have so far suggested, I doubt that will turn around your punting performance.

Edited by curious
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12 hours ago, curious said:

Wait.... so the 5% improvement only applies to a small percentage of the race ... 200m maybe?

I'm a big fan of time over distance covered though. Every race I've ever seen was won by the horse that ran the fastest time over the race distance.

GPS data would be interesting but if everyone had it, it would probably offer no advantage from a punting perspective, just like everyone knowing a horse has blinkers on doesn't.

As to the lotus position, you could try that but if your concurrent contemplations are based on the theories you have so far suggested, I doubt that will turn around your punting performance.

Yes of course

B's obviously have some affect in enabling a neddy to settle handier and more settled in those that need them...after the trusted trainer has worked out an in form neddy needs them...not as a last throw of the dice..

Melody Belle winning the Karaka was a classic case in point...

They allowed her to settle...and exploded with a turn of foot she'd previously not shown...to win easily..

Its bizarre how you and your bff keep on wanking on about if "Punters had every bit of info it wouldn't offer any advantage"

You think everyone thinks the same obviously??

Punters use various pieces of info in very different ways...

You and yours have a very strange take on things 'punting'

Maybe why you've restricted your 'punting' to just maidens here?

Or have you branched out to amateur riders events?

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10 minutes ago, Thomass said:

Punters use various pieces of info in very different ways...

You and yours have a very strange take on things 'punting'

Just because it is used in different ways, doesn't mean it can be used. Like the way you have said you use the info you repeatedly go on about. And why you have never managed to put up a winning selection before the races like you do after. Fraud springs to mind which is not surprising given your theories. They simply cannot work.

What is strange about using actual known information to assess a horse when punting. Just because you like to introduce a while bunch of unknowns, you think punters that work with facts are 'strange'.

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10 minutes ago, mardigras said:

What is strange about using actual known information to assess a horse when punting. Just because you like to introduce a while bunch of unknowns, you think punters that work with facts are 'strange'.

I'm sorry you can't understand basic English...still

You and your bff said "what's the point in everyone having GPS info...it would offer no advantage if they all had it"

Yet you said pen. Readings should be made available to everyone...not just the Track Manager who took them...

...make up your mind Mr. confusion...

You should be rejoicing the fact your superior use of known information for all....gives you an edge on the 5th at Gundy Guy...

Edited by Thomass
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I don't recall saying what you claim. However, information that falls within the typical use, will generally not be of any value. 

Since most punters do form that way and therefore it will not provide 99% an edge. Information provided that is considered contra to the way most think of it is where you can obtain value.

So I'm all for information being given out but it has to be on the basis that someone has to pay for that. 

And you as the major person who seems to want it, would still be none the wiser based on how you apply the information. You have shown us that. You will never have enough information because you don't know what you are doing with it.

 

 

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So you finally disagree with your bff??

Mark that down in history

btw...what's the contra info you want provided that the rest of the ignorami hoi polloi  won't know how to use...

...so you can obtain 'value'....

...weighing up the horse/s a neddys produced overnight??

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Contra. The view that the 'info' does NOT affect performance/outcome in the way the vast majority of punters believe. 

Which therefore means the punters affect the price due to their view, and the value is obtained either because they lower the price, others become higher - or because they think the impact is against the horse, which results in an increase to its price.

Info like believing blinkers increases the chance of a horse because you rate it on top. Stuff like that.

Things like GPS. You would look at  horse that travelled further, watch the video and think it was 3 wide without cover, and then bring the price of the horse down based on that. I would take the contra view that the extra distance and being wide means nothing. And back something else that now has a higher price because of you putting more on the other one. Simple.

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Oh that's right...

You don't worry about a neddys recent form do you?

You treat a neddy having every chance from the trail position...the same as one caught wide throughout in the open...and finishing equal distance from the winner...

....ones called 'in form' the other 'out of form'

...but you think they're all robots

Seriously bizzare...

...You and Wally make great bed companions...now you've got 3 in a bed

enjoy

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2 hours ago, Thomass said:

You think everyone thinks the same obviously??

Punters use various pieces of info in very different ways...

You and yours have a very strange take on things 'punting'

Maybe why you've restricted your 'punting' to just maidens here?

Or have you branched out to amateur riders events?

Nope, I obviously don't think everyone thinks the same. That's my point I think. I like to use whatever information differently from the majority. That's how you find value when the majority interpretation is wrong and causes a price adjustment that makes that horse or other horses better value.

I haven't had a bet on NZ racing in 3 or 4 years, not even maidens or amateur events. Track consistency is too unreliable. Haven't been to a NZ race meeting in that time either though I'm planning to go to one next January and may be tempted to have a bet there.

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Onya...before you go with the tail between the legs...

I'll leave you with this from Mark Walker...

“I thought the horse that won yesterday was our best hope and with Kingsman we tried something different and put the blinkers on and that made a big difference.

Gee who knew BO makes horses go faster...after you've trusted the trainer...on a neddy you've analysed...that they've trialled in BLINKERS

..and they really do go faster.."a big difference" faster

Not you...good riddance 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Thomass said:

Onya...before you go with the tail between the legs...

I'll leave you with this from Mark Walker...

“I thought the horse that won yesterday was our best hope and with Kingsman we tried something different and put the blinkers on and that made a big difference.

Gee who knew BO makes horses go faster...after you've trusted the trainer...on a neddy you've analysed...that they've trialled in BLINKERS

..and they really do go faster.."a big difference" faster

Not you...good riddance 

 

 

thanks for that tommy    blinkers actually make horses go faster really    well then they wont need cobalt or any other drugs just good old blinkers  there was a day i recall at the races where a horse raced twice in blinkers  the jockey advised the trainer after its second start in them to remove them  low and behold guess what happened it won.    but   ill take your advice they make the horse go faster so in advance of the rush by trainers this morning to buy them i stayed up all night and produced a 100 of them ill give you a tip tommy i made 2 coloured ones they make them go even faster would  you like them gotta go the phones jumping of the hook

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52 minutes ago, wally said:

thanks for that tommy    blinkers actually make horses go faster really    well then they wont need cobalt or any other drugs just good old blinkers  there was a day i recall at the races where a horse raced twice in blinkers  the jockey advised the trainer after its second start in them to remove them  low and behold guess what happened it won.    but   ill take your advice they make the horse go faster so in advance of the rush by trainers this morning to buy them i stayed up all night and produced a 100 of them ill give you a tip tommy i made 2 coloured ones they make them go even faster would  you like them gotta go the phones jumping of the hook

Do you listen to the rapper LUDICROUS by chance willy??

Lets get this thread back to normal intell lect rural chat she'll wee?

Of course Blinkers don't work on every neddy ludicrous...that's plain stupidity 

Lets take one Blinker 'nuance' of following well respected Trainers though shall wee?

You would have read my posts..post to post...with one stand out nuance of...

..neddys first up...with Blinkers

David Haworth and Nigel Tiley's horses RED SIERRA and LUPELANI...first up BLINKERS

Top Trainers don't normally start their charges first up in Blinkers...you can be fairly sure it's not a last throw of the dice then...

...what it does indicate is they're ON THE JOB..

Maybe pink would make them go faster as you say...but that's up to you to decide willy

 Both won...RS at 26's....

So Blinkers are the number one go fast...for certain neddys in certain circumstances ...only a fool like you and Mardi would 'get on ' every Blinkin' neddy...

hope that helps a wee bit in your understanding of horse psychology wills

best

 

 

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