Business Case - CJC Riccarton All Weather Track - here it is!

[Chief Stipe]

22 minutes ago, Pitman said:

NO NEED 300 X $120 X !2MONTHS = $432,000  

I don't quite understand your formula here.  Please explain.

Are you saying 300 horses will trial twelve times in one season on the AWT?

Or is the CJC proposing a set yearly fee to use ALL the facilities?

[Pitman]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

I don't quite understand your formula here.  Please explain.

Are you saying 300 horses will trial twelve times in one season on the AWT?

Or is the CJC proposing a set yearly fee to use ALL the facilities?

monthly track fees generated, rent and trial fees over and above these figures

[Pitman]

1 hour ago, Chief Stipe said:

And the worst "Premier" Turf Track in New Zealand.  

Not when it is a good three, its the best firm track in NZ

[Chief Stipe]

18 minutes ago, Pitman said:

Not when it is a good three, its the best firm track in NZ

Rubbish!  No one with a decent horse want's to run on a G3 at Riccarton which in reality is closer to G2!

Especially when it looks like this.

Where is the plan to fix it?  If there is a plan will it be done before November?

 

[Chief Stipe]

Still waiting for an explanation to what your formula means.

 

2 hours ago, Pitman said:

NO NEED 300 X $120 X !2MONTHS = $432,000  

I don't quite understand your formula here.  Please explain.

Are you saying 300 horses will trial twelve times in one season on the AWT?

Or is the CJC proposing a set yearly fee to use ALL the facilities?

[Freda]

45 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Still waiting for an explanation to what your formula means.

 

I don't quite understand your formula here.  Please explain.

Are you saying 300 horses will trial twelve times in one season on the AWT?

Or is the CJC proposing a set yearly fee to use ALL the facilities?

The amount will be for trackfees.

300 horses @ $120 per month x 12 months = $432,000.

Then you have to factor in stable rent, currently  $65 per box/yard per month times as many horses incumbent, so work on the already mentioned 300 and we have a further 234,000 per annum .

Rent and trackfees /300 horses =  $666,000 per annum.

However, on current numbers - 200?   the place is bleeding  money , so I'm told.   

Go figure.

[nomates]

1 hour ago, Freda said:

The amount will be for trackfees.

300 horses @ $120 per month x 12 months = $432,000.

Then you have to factor in stable rent, currently  $65 per box/yard per month times as many horses incumbent, so work on the already mentioned 300 and we have a further 234,000 per annum .

Rent and trackfees /300 horses =  $666,000 per annum.

However, on current numbers - 200?   the place is bleeding  money , so I'm told.   

Go figure.

Going on those numbers i see you and Mr P aren't on the same page . I'm pretty sure i know which one is painting the pretty picture . History shows no track makes large amounts of money , Cambridge possibly .

[Chief Stipe]

2 hours ago, Freda said:

The amount will be for trackfees.

300 horses @ $120 per month x 12 months = $432,000.

Then you have to factor in stable rent, currently  $65 per box/yard per month times as many horses incumbent, so work on the already mentioned 300 and we have a further 234,000 per annum .

Rent and trackfees /300 horses =  $666,000 per annum.

However, on current numbers - 200?   the place is bleeding  money , so I'm told.   

Go figure.

So that total income is now required to maintain and renovate ALL training facilities at Riccarton.  A low cost model has now been replaced by a high cost model. The increase in expenses has to come from somewhere.  Will the % of revenue earned from TAB that currently goes to administration and other opex items be reduced?  Currently 80% of revenue earned from TAB (after they and NZTR deduct their costs) goes back to stakeholders via stakes payments.  It must reduce if Riccarton is to break even.

[Freda]

32 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

So that total income is now required to maintain and renovate ALL training facilities at Riccarton.  A low cost model has now been replaced by a high cost model. The increase in expenses has to come from somewhere.  Will the % of revenue earned from TAB that currently goes to administration and other opex items be reduced?  Currently 80% of revenue earned from TAB (after they and NZTR deduct their costs) goes back to stakeholders via stakes payments.  It must reduce if Riccarton is to break even.

The thoughts are that costs will be no more and possibly less, given that the number of training tracks to be maintained will be reduced.

No more staff are required either, as I understand. 

 

Edited April 16, 2021 by Freda

[Chief Stipe]

32 minutes ago, Freda said:

The thoughts are that costs will be no more and possibly less, given that the number of training tracks to be maintained will be reduced.

No more staff are required either, as I understand. 

 

Yeah right!  Firstly they don't appear to have been maintaining what they had/have now!  Geez look at the main racing surface!

Secondly they are seriously underestimating what it takes to keep an AWT up to scratch.  You only have to look at OZ to see what is required.

Costs will be more and the maintenance is underfunded now.

FFS they don't even have an irrigation system that effectively and easily covers everywhere it is required.  

[nomates]

What happens if numbers drop by say 25% , that's a lot of revenue gone , what then , everybody else get a fee increase maybe .

This is what happens when no structured financial plan is in place , everything becomes conjecture .

Pam you say 200 horses in work , Mr P says the model is 300 , huge difference considering the figures involved , what happens if your numbers are correct ?

[Chief Stipe]

15 minutes ago, nomates said:

What happens if numbers drop by say 25% , that's a lot of revenue gone , what then , everybody else get a fee increase maybe .

This is what happens when no structured financial plan is in place , everything becomes conjecture .

Pam you say 200 horses in work , Mr P says the model is 300 , huge difference considering the figures involved , what happens if your numbers are correct ?

They are closing Rangiora so are I guess expecting the Trainers there to move to Town.  But that will require building new stables and my understanding is that the current setup leaves a lot to be desired.

 

[nomates]

3 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

They are closing Rangiora so are I guess expecting the Trainers there to move to Town.  But that will require building new stables and my understanding is that the current setup leaves a lot to be desired.

 

How many horses at Rangiora ? And they wont all go to Riccarton , not everyone wants to live in the big smoke . There's Ashburton so some will go there . What about the ones that own their own property , what do they do , sell up , hard selling stables when no track to train on . What if some of them and/or their parners have supplimentary employement to get buy , or kids at school . Lots of if's and maybe's .

They are spending money that isn't guaranteed to come in , the whole thing is based on shaky supposition . As ever .

[Freda]

37 minutes ago, nomates said:

What happens if numbers drop by say 25% , that's a lot of revenue gone , what then , everybody else get a fee increase maybe .

This is what happens when no structured financial plan is in place , everything becomes conjecture .

Pam you say 200 horses in work , Mr P says the model is 300 , huge difference considering the figures involved , what happens if your numbers are correct ?

I'm estimating 200 based at Riccarton currently in work, that doesn't take into account those stabled on private property and brought in to work daily,  or several times a week.

300 is the number expected, possibly more.

[Chief Stipe]

2 minutes ago, Freda said:

I'm estimating 200 based at Riccarton currently in work, that doesn't take into account those stabled on private property and brought in to work daily,  or several times a week.

300 is the number expected, possibly more.

300 isn't enough to sustain the number of meetings that one particular trainer has forecast will be run at Riccarton.  

[Freda]

13 minutes ago, nomates said:

How many horses at Rangiora ? And they wont all go to Riccarton , not everyone wants to live in the big smoke . There's Ashburton so some will go there . What about the ones that own their own property , what do they do , sell up , hard selling stables when no track to train on . What if some of them and/or their parners have supplimentary employement to get buy , or kids at school . Lots of if's and maybe's .

They are spending money that isn't guaranteed to come in , the whole thing is based on shaky supposition . As ever .

How many horses at Rangiora?  Not sure, but the biggest teams would be Woodsford,  Kenny Moore, Paul.Harris, John Blackadder,  and a few with smaller numbers.

Only Stephen Woodsford is actually stabled there of those I have mentioned. 

[Freda]

1 minute ago, Chief Stipe said:

300 isn't enough to sustain the number of meetings that one particular trainer has forecast will be run at Riccarton.  

Well, if those meetings are pulled from other provincial clubs, they might.

[Chief Stipe]

21 minutes ago, Freda said:

Well, if those meetings are pulled from other provincial clubs, they might.

Still not enough.  By my calculations two thirds of the total race population are based in three Waikato locations.  How many horses racing in the South Island?

[nomates]

50 minutes ago, Freda said:

Only Stephen Woodsford is actually stabled there of those I have mentioned. 

So there is the problem , the rest have to sell properties before they can move , if the want to , if they can up root family , if they don't have partners that don't have other employement that subsidizes the training .

I'm sure NZTR aren't going to subsidize any loss of income or moving costs .

[nomates]

31 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

Still not enough.  By my calculations two thirds of the total race population are based in three Waikato locations.  How many horses racing in the South Island?

They are going to run shuttles between Awapuni and Riccarton to make sure fields are full .

[Freda]

12 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Still not enough.  By my calculations two thirds of the total race population are based in three Waikato locations.  How many horses racing in the South Island?

 I think it is envisaged  - hoped - that trainers may set up satellite stables?   The Marsh operation currently has one, which is doing a good job of turning around some former northerners..mind you, Pitty has been doing just that for years.  But, using an existing barn and local staff.

As for Canterbury trainers relocating...hmm. Not sure on that.  From Rangiora,  which will close - when? no one seems to know, but the CJC are determined to see the back of it.   Woodsford maybe?  but, as mentioned by NM,  there are other things to factor in,  such as the cost of commuting from Rangiora daily, or maybe selling a house and moving into ChCh..?   with the current insanity surrounding house prices/availability, good luck with that.     The other three mentioned have properties off the Rangiora track, so...I'm sure they must be having plenty to think about.

Will make little difference to Parsons/Coulbeck,  the Frye's, Centaine Spittles...inconvenient if not available for jumpouts, but  the beach isn't going anywhere.

Timaru trainers?      That track is down for closure eventually, shame, it is a really suitable venue, nice and central to all, good track and facilities.  I don't see Steph Clark [ child at school, partner employed ]  Bruce Tapper [ farmer ] Warwick Coles, Philip Inglis, Len/Lacey Stewart, or any of the others based there wanting to move.  I just can't.

And, as well as the above, those trainers thinking of relocating also have to factor in the business reality of increased cost - not just housing, travel, etc  - but the increased basic costs of rental/track fees, which will be considerably more than what they are facing now.

[Freda]

12 hours ago, nomates said:

So there is the problem , the rest have to sell properties before they can move , if the want to , if they can up root family , if they don't have partners that don't have other employement that subsidizes the training .

I'm sure NZTR aren't going to subsidize any loss of income or moving costs .

Damn right it won't.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I'm sure I read that Caulfield-based trainers were given, or will be given,  a significant incentive to help relocate once Caulfield is closed for training.

[Huey]

1 hour ago, Freda said:

Damn right it won't.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I'm sure I read that Caulfield-based trainers were given, or will be given,  a significant incentive to help relocate once Caulfield is closed for training.

Surprise surprise another ill thought out decision, been saying this since the M report anyone who thinks things especially horse numbers and participation will stay the same or increase is dreaming. But then perhaps thats what they want? 

[Pitman]

chiefy

FYI Freda and I calculated this morning that there is approx 250 horses training regularly at Riccarton so it will not take much to increase to the figure I am suggesting of 300

I presume your comment re numbers of meetings forecast was directed at me - so how many did I say?  - Seeing you think you know everything

 

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, Pitman said:

FYI Freda and I calculated this morning that there is approx 250 horses training regularly at Riccarton so it will not take much to increase to the figure I am suggesting of 300

 

But costs are not covered now nor does it seem enough is spent on maintaining existing surfaces so the increase in maintenance costs from the AWT will not be offset by an additional 50 horses!!!!  Simple maths really isn't it?

Strangely as evident in the ambiguity of your responses that you, as the leading trainer at Riccarton, are not privy to the business plan/case for the AWT.  Which begs the question was there one?  If there is one why hasn't the CJC been transparent by publishing it?

A bit like the flawed premise that the AWT's were built on i.e. that they would stop the losses from abandoned meetings.  That was a myth.

As for the number of "extra" meetings I believe you mentioned 14+ on the AWT.  I guess they will be bled from the regions.  Where the horses and more importantly the new owners are going to come from is anyone's guess.  

However at this stage of the exercise we are still working on the costs not revenue.

As for me knowing everything given the number of questions I'm asking (and getting ambiguous answers) would contradict that!!!!  Sadly you don't seem to have the answers either!