The Truth and it isn't the Black Horse Newsletter: the real expose.

[Chief Stipe]

Who is driving the stories of Peter Profit and Black Horse?  Why is their motivation?

Is there any foundation to the allegations of doping in NZ Harness Racing?

The conspiracy that has no foundation is about to unravel. 

Coming soon.....

[Chief Stipe]

Perception is not Reality.  Perception is only a mental impression often driven by confirmation bias.

Reality is based on facts - things that actually exist.

When perception becomes your reality then it is no more than fantasy.

So the reality is that some harness trainers and drivers are doing much better than others.  They are that is the reality - facts such as premiership tables and win rates prove that.  It has always been like that.

Some perceive that the reason they are doing better is because they must be cheating.  Yet there are no facts to support that therefore it cannot be reality.  Unfortunately we are seeing perception now bordering on delusional.

The aggrieved or those that struggle to compete gravitate towards the perception rather than the reality.  The reality being that they aren't yet as good as those competing at the top.  

In an age where information is readily accessible it is very easy to find unrelated facts to support one's perception hypothesis.  For example "Lance Armstrong used EPO and his performance improved therefore it must follow that horse trainers are using EPO to improve their horse's performance."  But where is the evidence that that is happening?  Other than some trainers are doing better than others which has always happened.  "Oh but Lance Armstrong didn't return a positive and was tested all the time."  Well the reality is as it turns out he wasn't tested when he was using EPO.  "Oh they must be using EPO that is untraceable".....and so on and so on.

Then we have a large doping case in the USA - "there told you so - it must be happening in NZ that explains how some trainers are better than others".  Of course no facts to support that just perception.  No consideration of the differences between racing jurisdictions nor a comparison of the money involved in the USA (NZ is nickel and dimes by comparison) nor the fact that the charges didn't relate to actual doping but the mislabelling and adulteration of known drugs.

Meanwhile the proponents of perception is reality are doing the very thing that they claim they are trying to stop and that is bring racing into disrepute and turn people off the sport of harness racing.

Watch this space - Peter Profit and his NZ owner source plus the Black Horse Newsletter exposed.....

 

[Robalan]

Chief you are espousing your perception of reality. you have presented no facts to support your claims. there are some hodse trainers who have the ability to increase the performance of their horses exponentially when racing at Premier meetings. How is this done. Horses that seem ordinary, or above average, at trials and minor meetings suddenly grow another leg and improve lengths. why is that unless, they are getting extra assistance which is not permissable within the rules of racing

[Chief Stipe]

On 3/02/2022 at 10:51 AM, Robalan said:

Chief you are espousing your perception of reality. you have presented no facts to support your claims

I'm not making claims that leading Trainers are cheating by doping.

Why should I provide facts that they aren't when there are no facts (evidence) that they are? 

On 3/02/2022 at 10:51 AM, Robalan said:

 there are some hodse trainers who have the ability to increase the performance of their horses exponentially when racing at Premier meetings. How is this done. 

By doing simple things very well based on decades of experience and institutional knowledge.  The fact is the majority of Trainers are very average.  That's always been the case.  From time to time they will shine when they happen upon a horse of extreme natural ability.

On 3/02/2022 at 10:51 AM, Robalan said:

Horses that seem ordinary, or above average, at trials and minor meetings suddenly grow another leg and improve lengths. why is that unless, they are getting extra assistance which is not permissable within the rules of racing

Again doing the simple things well.  Take the recent example of Stella's Delight which has caused some more unfounded finger pointing.

The mare was for most of its care in the hands of a part-time trainer Ms R Low.  A Trainer that has never ever set the world on fire with her training exploits.

The owners had probably given up and retirement was on the cards.  I would say it probably still is.

Now some facts:

1.  The mare is by Bettors Delight - there have been numerous cases of his horses coming right late in age.  Probably not a big factor but no doubt some smart Trainers keep a look out for them.

2.  The horse had shown flashes of ability - nothing startling but had placed and paced the odd good sectional in 23 starts.

3.  It was evident in races prior to the stable change that it wasn't 100% in its racing.  It was hanging and pacing a tad rough indicating an underlying niggle.  From experience it doesn't take much for a horse to be sore and not put in. 

4.  Gavin Burgess took over the training of the mare around the middle of last year.  I'm not sure exactly when but for arguments sake let's say 6 months prior to it first win in his care.  Her first race start in his care was 198 days after its last in Low's care.  John Dunn drove it in that race.  

5.  The horse is NOT trained by the Dunn's.  It is still in Gavin Burgess care.  However it is "domiciled" at Dunn's stable at Woodend Beach.  All that means for the non-conspirators is that instead of Burgess floating the horse to Woodend Beach to work it he just bowls up to the stable.

6.  If a horse has a niggle working them in a straight line on a forgiving surface can work the Oracle.  The beach is great for that as is walking them in the sea afterwards.  Attitude wise horses love it.  They get bored shitless going round and round and round a dirt circle.  Many top trainers use the beach regularly - e.g. in Melbourne they regularly take their horses to Mornington for a swim for post race recovery.

7.  Stella's Delight opened I think at $9 on Fixed Odds.  The TAB bookies are known for their caution.  Smart punters saw the price at big unders and also climbed on.  The price quickly dropped to $3.50 and hovered there.  Yep someone got some.  It wouldn't have been much as the TAB are risk averse and the pools here are very small.  I hope the patient owners the Prendergasts got some.

8.  The race setup.  The big grass Methven track.  Forgiving surface and no camber.  Perfect draw 1 on the second row.  Speed map put it no further back than 3 back on the rail.  Soft run throughout and didn't use any gas at any stage.  Some comments have been made about John Dunn looking around a lot with a lap to go.  That's what makes him a good driver - spatial awareness and knowing who and where the threats are.  Methven has been racing recently where unless you were on the pace you couldn't make much ground from behind.  Very hard to do on uncambered big grass tracks at the best of times.  The average bunch of maidens didn't run that fast but steady.  Stella's Delight won but hardly a stunning victory.  It was also noticeable that it paced better and didn't hang.

So good training, great thinking, great setup, great driving, happy horse and owners.  Cheating?  Yeah na!

[Robalan]

A well thought out response Chief, with many relevant facts. One fact that you have overlooked however is that these trainers that seem to be able to lift horses for major meetings, all have a history of using performance enhancers

[Chief Stipe]

34 minutes ago, Robalan said:

all have a history of using performance enhancers

For example in the last 10 years?

[Chief Stipe]

I guess those calling the Dunn's cheats are calling the following owners cheats:

Mark Dunnett 

B(Bruce) R Negus, Mrs C P Negus, G R J Anderson

 

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, Robalan said:

A well thought out response Chief, with many relevant facts. One fact that you have overlooked however is that these trainers that seem to be able to lift horses for major meetings, all have a history of using performance enhancers

I thought @Robalan and @the galah you would both have those "facts" at your fingertips?

 

[the galah]

6 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

 

Then we have a large doping case in the USA - "there told you so - it must be happening in NZ that explains how some trainers are better than others".  Of course no facts to support that just perception.  No consideration of the differences between racing jurisdictions nor a comparison of the money involved in the USA (NZ is nickel and dimes by comparison) nor the fact that the charges didn't relate to actual doping but the mislabelling and adulteration of known drugs.

 

Do you live in a cave chief?

[Unhinged]

4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

I'm not making claims that leading Trainers are cheating by doping.

Why should I provide facts that they aren't when there are no facts (evidence) that they are? 

By doing simple things very well based on decades of experience and institutional knowledge.  The fact is the majority of Trainers are very average.  That's always been the case.  From time to time they will shine when they happen upon a horse of extreme natural ability.

Again doing the simple things well.  Take the recent example of Stella's Delight which has caused some more unfounded finger pointing.

The mare was for most of its care in the hands of a part-time trainer Ms R Low.  A Trainer that has never ever set the world on fire with her training exploits.

The owners had probably given up and retirement was on the cards.  I would say it probably still is.

Now some facts:

1.  The mare is by Bettors Delight - there have been numerous cases of his horses coming right late in age.  Probably not a big factor but no doubt some smart Trainers keep a look out for them.

2.  The horse had shown flashes of ability - nothing startling but had placed and paced the odd good sectional in 23 starts.

3.  It was evident in races prior to the stable change that it wasn't 100% in its racing.  It was hanging and pacing a tad rough indicating an underlying niggle.  From experience it doesn't take much for a horse to be sore and not put in. 

4.  Gavin Burgess took over the training of the mare around the middle of next year.  I'm not sure exactly when but for arguments sake let's say 6 months prior to it first win in his care.  Her first race start in his care was 198 days after its last in Low's care.  John Dunn drove it in that race.  

5.  The horse is NOT trained by the Dunn's.  It is still in Gavin Burgess care.  However it is "domiciled" at Dunn's stable at Woodend Beach.  All that means for the non-conspirators is that instead of Burgess floating the horse to Woodend Beach to work it he just bowls up to the stable.

6.  If a horse has a niggle working them in a straight line on a forgiving surface can work the Oracle.  The beach is great for that as is walking them in the sea afterwards.  Attitude wise horses love it.  They get bored shitless going round and round and round a dirt circle.  Many top trainers use the beach regularly - e.g. in Melbourne they regularly take their horses to Mornington for a swim for post race recovery.

7.  Stella's Delight opened I think at $9 on Fixed Odds.  The TAB bookies are known for their caution.  Smart punters saw the price at big unders and also climbed on.  The price quickly dropped to $3.50 and hovered there.  Yep someone got some.  It wouldn't have been much as the TAB are risk averse and the pools here are very small.  I hope the patient owners the Prendergasts got some.

8.  The race setup.  The big grass Methven track.  Forgiving surface and no camber.  Perfect draw 1 on the second row.  Speed map put it no further back than 3 back on the rail.  Soft run throughout and didn't use any gas at any stage.  Some comments have been made about John Dunn looking around a lot with a lap to go.  That's what makes him a good driver - spatial awareness and knowing who and where the threats are.  Methven has been racing recently where unless you were on the pace you couldn't make much ground from behind.  Very hard to do on uncambered big grass tracks at the best of times.  The average bunch of maidens didn't run that fast but steady.  Stella's Delight won but hardly a stunning victory.  It was also noticeable that it paced better and didn't hang.

So good training, great thinking, great setup, great driving, happy horse and owners.  Cheating?  Yeah na!

9 .New shoe's every month needed or

 not.

10. Vet there every week. 

11. Teeth don't quote me every three month's. 

12.Horses extremely fit, fast work involves 900m trail walk, 2400 warm up, 2400m fast work, 5-10 min paddle in surf, 900m walk home then washed with warm water then massage.

13. Jog days 30min on lead or in cart,not on jog frame.

14. All fast work behind galloping pace makers. 

If horse ties up it is worked everyday.

15 From paddock to track 3 months. 

16 Couldn't tell you when John last had a day off.

17 Weather changes day or night covers are changed. 

18 Horse's are fed best feed available with feeds custom per horse.

19 Staff , would have no problem leaving any of their staff in charge of one of my horse's 

This is a small sample of what goes on , how would I know I'm there every Saturday. 

[Chief Stipe]

5 minutes ago, Unhinged said:

16 Couldn't tell you when John last had a day off.

According to Peter Profit and his NZ Owner source it was the day after John attended a mates wedding and drunk too much at the after match.  I mean who hasn't been there in our working life!!!!  Although I never missed a day for that excuse but then we were never drug tested as a requirement for work.  If it was a Friday just had to hang in there until the work drinks started mid afternoon!!!!

[Unhinged]

29 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

According to Peter Profit and his NZ Owner source it was the day after John attended a mates wedding and drunk too much at the after match.  I mean who hasn't been there in our working life!!!!  Although I never missed a day for that excuse but then we were never drug tested as a requirement for work.  If it was a Friday just had to hang in there until the work drinks started mid afternoon!!!!

Over lock down I worked at the Stables for two weeks trying to keep staff members down yes It was OK thru HRNZ rules.

[Chief Stipe]

@Unhinged do the Dunn's regularly weigh their horses?

[Unhinged]

8 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

@Unhinged do the Dunn's regularly weigh their horses?

No

[Unhinged]

Just now, Unhinged said:

No

Heart rate done after every fast work

[Chief Stipe]

7 minutes ago, Unhinged said:

No

Not weighing their horses.  That surprises me as most of the Top Thoroughbred trainers do it regularly.

Confirms something else though - the volume of in competition medication administered would require knowledge of a horses weight.

[Chief Stipe]

15 hours ago, the galah said:

Do you live in a cave chief?

Nope.  But what's your point?

[Unhinged]

There is a interesting article in the HARNESSXPRESS this week with Bruce Negus talking about Mark Dunnett and it's turnaround. 

[Unhinged]

20. John Dunn would be the best judge of pace I know, when working a horse if he wanted to run three 30sec quarters he can no watch .He usually drives the galloping pacemaker and the other drivers carry the watch .

[Gammalite]

3 hours ago, Unhinged said:

There is a interesting article in the HARNESSXPRESS this week with Bruce Negus talking about Mark Dunnett and it's turnaround. 

Have seen snippets of HarnessXPress on facebook. Looks a U-Beaut publication !!. 

In Australia we had something called 'Black Saturday' once . A very 'nasty and unforgiving 'day with bush fires.

I think the 'Black horse' and profit site rubbish mentioned at start of this thread, should be  consigned the same fate, and all thrown in the fire where they belong.