mardigras Posted August 12, 2018 Author Share Posted August 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Thomass said: I wrote the Blue Print for you years ago Wal... Shatin form 4 starts ago...in a 14 horse field..Baker..say no more Very Elleegant in an open 2yo against winners..in a huge run.. Nulli Secundus... last 2 starts with very good PERFORMANCES read FORM...against winners with big reputations...Von Trapp and Tiny Terror... Not Usual Current in a good G1 effort last start back to mid week maidens...home track ...Alphastar in a 16 horse Premier field close up just 5 starts back...to midweek class with 3kgs off... Amazing Az...special maiden form against winners last start...back to maiden... North Island form killed them yesterday as well.... ...Hk/Australian form better than here...Sth Island form inferior to North...Black Type superior any which way....Spec mai You know the Blue Print Wal...just get on or get out Thanks. I'll update the formula. I do love how a special maiden performance suddenly trumps a G2 second - with BLINKERS ON, even though Black Type is superior in every way. I also love a last placing in a G1 is assessed as a good effort. Very PC that. Good for coming last - well done. Here's the comment from NZTR "Trld mod pace, wknd 200m". Sounds good for sure. And HK placings over a distance 700m different to today. That is really going to make the new formula brilliant. Thanks. So I'll add runs like Nulli Secundus. Races with mostly maidens running around. I didn't realise you would include those as superior form. There were truckloads of those today. With the new rules - only about 120 horses raced this weekend in NZ down in grade. Especially if one is to count running down the track - just for showing up because it was a G1. No surprises here Wally - when you have that many to choose from post race, it's pretty easy to come on after the event as there will always be some that win. All Thomass does is pick them post race and put them up as if they are such a guide. he's an embarrassment to punters. Thankfully, I have all the data and will keep putting these up everytime he persists in claiming how good they are POST race. And I will tabulate the results. Everyone will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 12, 2018 Author Share Posted August 12, 2018 Results for today (using the new formula). 30 starters, 6 winners Tatts win divs totalling $28.70. Didn't quite bring the bacon home. Even including Nulli Secundus, Not Usual Current, Indigenous Union and Verry Elegant. Just have to incorporate Pi and we are away! Weekend 100+ starters, 14 winners, $77 - not bad - slightly less than a dartboard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, mardigras said: Results for today (using the new formula). 30 starters, 6 winners Tatts win divs totalling $28.70. Didn't quite bring the bacon home. Even including Nulli Secundus, Not Usual Current, Indigenous Union and Verry Elegant. Just have to incorporate Pi and we are away! Weekend 100+ starters, 14 winners, $77 - not bad - slightly less than a dartboard. Ouch. Glad I didn't go again today. Had to work to replenish the bank. Guess we have some more refinement to do to get this sorted. Might be because we didn't have a heavy track today and couldn't use the 3kg claim factor? The -23/24% ROI is seeming consistent though. I hope it wasn't too windy up there in Northland Wally. The Armourguard van could have blown off the road with so little weight on. At least you would have been able to second a toddler to push the barrow from the back of the tote. Edited August 12, 2018 by curious 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barryb Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 More likely Wally is still there, as he can't afford the cab fare back to Whangarei. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 (edited) 17 hours ago, mardigras said: Thanks. I'll update the formula. I do love how a special maiden performance suddenly trumps a G2 second - with BLINKERS ON, even though Black Type is superior in every way. I also love a last placing in a G1 is assessed as a good effort. Very PC that. Good for coming last - well done. Here's the comment from NZTR "Trld mod pace, wknd 200m". Sounds good for sure. And HK placings over a distance 700m different to today. That is really going to make the new formula brilliant. Thanks. So I'll add runs like Nulli Secundus. Races with mostly maidens running around. I didn't realise you would include those as superior form. There were truckloads of those today. With the new rules - only about 120 horses raced this weekend in NZ down in grade. Especially if one is to count running down the track - just for showing up because it was a G1. No surprises here Wally - when you have that many to choose from post race, it's pretty easy to come on after the event as there will always be some that win. All Thomass does is pick them post race and put them up as if they are such a guide. he's an embarrassment to punters. Thankfully, I have all the data and will keep putting these up everytime he persists in claiming how good they are POST race. And I will tabulate the results. Everyone will see. The trouble with your 'formula'...is it's a 'wouldn't have a f in clue' one... Fy ignorant I...the former HK neddy finished 3rd fresh up over 1400M in HK...after being a winner over 2K at Leopardstown...and you're thinking Baker put him in the wrong race...and should be in the 1400m? FFS.. Ever heard of stayers sprinting well fresh?? Na didn't think so Harness statsman Seriously...it just shows how little you know... ...an all round ignoramus you is... And of course ADIS was caught 4 wide...in the Open... the whole trip...on a poorly cambered track...that's 'facing the breeze' in your Harness terminology that you love so much... Of course it was in my mix though... ..and you're so arrogant that you think I can't price ALL horses that fit moi's criteria...but you can? Every runner you have a price for....thinking every horse can win..at a price Idiot...at least I know horses aren't robots, haven't got the class, or are simply not fit enough to win.. ...some are out of form...or caught wide...but you treat every runner as 'in form' fool... And then you simply ignore the distance from the winner in a G 1...stating "but it finished last" No f in idea territory...again So...7L from the winner in a G1 at set weights...on an unsuitable track...for a mid week maiden...is very good form... Had the pace to trail in a G1...then outsprinted by 2 outstanding horses... coming home the last 600 6L quicker than its previous good unlucky debut... The Chinese owners knew how fast this horse is...$10 just before the jump with 27k in the pool..closed to 5.5 with 40k at the end Trainer Gibbs after the race..." he came into the race with some very good form around him" Oh yep... Woddy wank..." but he finished last" ...yea na Edited August 12, 2018 by Thomass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 12, 2018 Author Share Posted August 12, 2018 You didn't need to write a book to show us your rules are for clowns. I didn't care about last in a G1, I cared about the performance which was average at best. A beaten horse in a slow time. The last just emphasised it was so beaten and slow, it couldn't even beat any other runner in a dawdle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 13, 2018 Author Share Posted August 13, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Thomass said: ..and you're so arrogant that you think I can't price ALL horses that fit moi's criteria...but you can? Idiot...at least I know horses aren't robots, haven't got the class, or are simply not fit enough to win.. I've never said you can't price your horses. You've just NEVER shown you can BEFORE the race. And one of the issues with your ideas, is the punter doesn't know what you mean by 'haven't got the class' or 'simply not fit enough to win'. Which means you just put up any nag after they've won. No one else can use your theories because no one else will use the all important post race result to validate them. Of course the main issue with your theories is that they are flawed. You didn't realise why previously so that won't change now. You call that arrogance when it is simply common sense. Edited August 13, 2018 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkyMark Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 3 hours ago, Thomass said: The trouble with your 'formula'...is it's a 'wouldn't have a f in clue' one... Fy ignorant I...the former HK neddy finished 3rd fresh up over 1400M in HK...after being a winner over 2K at Leopardstown...and you're thinking Baker put him in the wrong race...and should be in the 1400m? FFS.. Ever heard of stayers sprinting well fresh?? Na didn't think so Harness statsman Seriously...it just shows how little you know... ...an all round ignoramus you is... And of course ADIS was caught 4 wide...in the Open... the whole trip...on a poorly cambered track...that's 'facing the breeze' in your Harness terminology that you love so much... Of course it was in my mix though... ..and you're so arrogant that you think I can't price ALL horses that fit moi's criteria...but you can? Every runner you have a price for....thinking every horse can win..at a price Idiot...at least I know horses aren't robots, haven't got the class, or are simply not fit enough to win.. ...some are out of form...or caught wide...but you treat every runner as 'in form' fool... And then you simply ignore the distance from the winner in a G 1...stating "but it finished last" No f in idea territory...again So...7L from the winner in a G1 at set weights...on an unsuitable track...for a mid week maiden...is very good form... Had the pace to trail in a G1...then outsprinted by 2 outstanding horses... coming home the last 600 6L quicker than its previous good unlucky debut... The Chinese owners knew how fast this horse is...$10 just before the jump with 27k in the pool..closed to 5.5 with 40k at the end Trainer Gibbs after the race..." he came into the race with some very good form around him" Oh yep... Woddy wank..." but he finished last" ...yea na you would give yourself much more credit, if you could actually put forward atleast one of your tips pre race. I have been following your posts on this site (because its great entertainment) (and you must be just taking the piss) ts just a lil rich for you to discredit someones formulas when the person your discrediting has had the balls to put pre race their selections, were as you dont Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 39 minutes ago, MarkyMark said: you would give yourself much more credit, if you could actually put forward atleast one of your tips pre race. I have been following your posts on this site (because its great entertainment) (and you must be just taking the piss) ts just a lil rich for you to discredit someones formulas when the person your discrediting has had the balls to put pre race their selections, were as you dont Well I'd suggest you put your nappies on if you don't like it being stolen... I'd tipped any number of winners on the old site before this Rid hill came along...and shown my 2 Hundy into 10k ..on a slow Friday after continual b/s..."why don't you prove it"...which I did It ain't about tipping...it's helping the likes of Wal to help himself...instead of continually asking for tips....boring az ...feed a f'er for a day and he keeps asking...show him how to actually trawl...fed for a life time... He knows the Blue Print now...just follow his tips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkyMark Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Thomass said: Well I'd suggest you put your nappies on if you don't like it being stolen... I'd tipped any number of winners on the old site before this Rid hill came along...and shown my 2 Hundy into 10k ..on a slow Friday after continual b/s..."why don't you prove it"...which I did It ain't about tipping...it's helping the likes of Wal to help himself...instead of continually asking for tips....boring az ...feed a f'er for a day and he keeps asking...show him how to actually trawl...fed for a life time... He knows the Blue Print now...just follow his tips but this is a diffent site, with different people. its just very rich of you to criticize someone putting their neck on the line with their selections, but you dont have the balls to do the same. makes you look rather stupid, your doing a very good job of that, however it is very ammusing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, MarkyMark said: but this is a diffent site, with different people. its just very rich of you to criticize someone putting their neck on the line with their selections, but you dont have the balls to do the same. makes you look rather stupid, your doing a very good job of that, however it is very ammusing. I don't give a flying f what you think...and I'm tipping being a newbie...you're just one of the other continual posters from the lock up...where your other inmates have been shooting blanks all weekend...while others are out enjoying a thing called life ...but feel free to post your tips if your so inclined...best 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkyMark Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Thomass said: I don't give a flying f what you think...and I'm tipping being a newbie...you're just one of the other continual posters from the lock up...where your other inmates have been shooting blanks all weekend...while others are out enjoying a thing called life ...but feel free to post your tips if your so inclined...best thats ok, i would be concerned if you cared about what i would think of you,. no, im a new member, and i am also a member of racecafe too, however i have no beef or trouble with anyone. i had a lovely weekend thanks, i certainly made the most of it. i have a young son that is learning to ride, he is asking me if he can take the horse to jump over the fence, my son is not even 5 yet. im only saying this as im still very very proud. i certainly will, you should try doing the same 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 13, 2018 Author Share Posted August 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Thomass said: I'd tipped any number of winners on the old site before this Rid hill came along...and shown my 2 Hundy into 10k ..on a slow Friday after continual b/s..."why don't you prove it"...which I did Sure you did. Did you use a dartboard? As for winning one day in the space of what is now around 3 years, a dartboard would do better. One day does not a punter make - yet you continually think it does. 2 hours ago, Thomass said: ..it's helping the likes of Wal to help himself...instead of continually asking for tips....boring az ...feed a f'er for a day and he keeps asking...show him how to actually trawl...fed for a life time... He knows the Blue Print now...just follow his tips This is the problem. The blue print which is what is being discussed is not worth the web page it is written on. The blue print relates to things like Good performance in higher grade, black type form is superior. Blinkers on 3kg claimers are gold. They are all worthless - since every selection I put up that matches the 'blueprint', you claim isn't meeting something else - but no one knows what that something else is. Every horse I put up will be the top selection of someone out there in punter land. And then when they apply your blueprint thinking it is now even better - what happens? Nothing - because the blue print is nothing. So if Wally listened to your tripe, you are right in one respect. He wouldn't keep asking. He'd have no money left for punting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 Oh dear... I well remember you tipping the SLOWEST maiden winner of the day from a Tauranga meeting...over a Black Type performer doing sweet sectionals and PERFORMING... ...read FORM...against other Black Typers...at HQ You haven't got the foggiest about NZ times...let alone realising that Black Type form beats slowest Maiden winners all day every day... Are you sure you don't want to re-assess the G1 7L last placed horse before I pants you...again?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 13, 2018 Author Share Posted August 13, 2018 (edited) 7 hours ago, Thomass said: Oh dear... I well remember you tipping the SLOWEST maiden winner of the day from a Tauranga meeting...over a Black Type performer doing sweet sectionals and PERFORMING... ...read FORM...against other Black Typers...at HQ You haven't got the foggiest about NZ times...let alone realising that Black Type form beats slowest Maiden winners all day every day... Are you sure you don't want to re-assess the G1 7L last placed horse before I pants you...again?? You make this too easy. Let's look at your stupid G1 performance. You claimed the performance was good because of running down the track in a G1. I would claim its performance was good when it ran 3rd at Counties. At Ellerslie on a track rated '3' where times were fast all day. Counties on a track rated '5'. He ran faster at Counties. Maybe you didn't realise that. Counties isn't even as fast a track as Ellerslie - yet he still went quicker. You use black type, when it's performance that counts. A horse doesn't know it is racing in a G1. And I love this " realising that Black Type form beats slowest Maiden winners all day every day". It's just more baseless crap. Don't forget good ole Firebird Flyer will you. No doubt that is why you'll try and suggest running slow in a G1 is good form. Heck, only 18 R65 runners the same day ran faster than Not Usual Current over the same distance. And still, I priced Not Usual Current on Sunday at $2.76 given I ignored its back type run. Why can't you just debate a topic. Instead of trying to discredit others in some fashion as if you think that bolsters your view on the topic (which it doesn't), try and actually debate what is the topic in various threads. If you want to debate my methods, start a thread on them. You don't know what my methods are so it will be a short thread. This thread is a debate on the assertion that horses having raced in higher grade, now racing down in grade is an indicator of better chance in a future race. I say it is rubbish since there is no relationship. Why? Because the horse doesn't know the class of race it was or is in. It doesn't know things like what stake they are racing for. They are just racing. The misconception is based around being too lazy to work out performance since generally better class of races will attract better horses and those horses will generally deliver better performances. But every time the performance is poor, you still get on, because you aren't able to assess performance. So you make typical claims that don't relate to the reality. Edited August 13, 2018 by mardigras 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Stipe Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 22 minutes ago, mardigras said: The misconception is based around being too lazy to work out performance since generally better class of races will attract better horses and those horses will generally deliver better performances. But every time the performance is poor, you still get on, because you aren't able to assess performance. So you make typical claims that don't relate to the reality. You could argue that this is what is wrong with our handicapping system as well. If a horse thrashes a field on a Wednesday where half the field ran a good time shouldn't it be handicapped more than a horse just beating a field in an average time run under similar conditions except it is on a premier Saturday? It gets more skewed now that our normally better class races are struggling to get the numbers and quality of horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 13, 2018 Author Share Posted August 13, 2018 Yep - handicapping by rote is not good. I prefer assessment based handicapping. All maiden winners basically going to the same level is a farce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said: You could argue that this is what is wrong with our handicapping system as well. If a horse thrashes a field on a Wednesday where half the field ran a good time shouldn't it be handicapped more than a horse just beating a field in an average time run under similar conditions except it is on a premier Saturday? It gets more skewed now that our normally better class races are struggling to get the numbers and quality of horses. Don't get me started on the handicapping system CS. I agree with you though, having the likes of rote rating penalties for maiden wins is a joke. It's not even really a handicapping system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, mardigras said: Yep - handicapping by rote is not good. I prefer assessment based handicapping. All maiden winners basically going to the same level is a farce. Oops, sorry mardigras. Snap! Thommo will probably now be convinced we are the same person ...lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poisoned Dwarf Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 19 hours ago, curious said: Oops, sorry mardigras. Snap! Thommo will probably now be convinced we are the same person ...lol. The bum bandit trifecta-------Curiass, Thomass, Mardigrass ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murray Fish Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 4 hours ago, mardigras said: This thread is a debate on the assertion that horses having raced in higher grade, now racing down in grade is an indicator of better chance in a future race. I say it is rubbish since there is no relationship. would it be true to say that black type races are run and won in faster times? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 3 hours ago, mardigras said: You make this too easy. Let's look at your stupid G1 performance. You claimed the performance was good because of running down the track in a G1. I would claim its performance was good when it ran 3rd at Counties. At Ellerslie on a track rated '3' where times were fast all day. Counties on a track rated '5'. He ran faster at Counties. Maybe you didn't realise that. Counties isn't even as fast a track as Ellerslie - yet he still went quicker. You use black type, when it's performance that counts. A horse doesn't know it is racing in a G1. And I love this " realising that Black Type form beats slowest Maiden winners all day every day". It's just more baseless crap. Don't forget good ole Firebird Flyer will you. No doubt that is why you'll try and suggest running slow in a G1 is good form. Heck, only 18 R65 runners the same day ran faster than Not Usual Current over the same distance. And still, I priced Not Usual Current on Sunday at $2.76 given I ignored its back type run. Why can't you just debate a topic. Instead of trying to discredit others in some fashion as if you think that bolsters your view on the topic (which it doesn't), try and actually debate what is the topic in various threads. If you want to debate my methods, start a thread on them. You don't know what my methods are so it will be a short thread. This thread is a debate on the assertion that horses having raced in higher grade, now racing down in grade is an indicator of better chance in a future race. I say it is rubbish since there is no relationship. Why? Because the horse doesn't know the class of race it was or is in. It doesn't know things like what stake they are racing for. They are just racing. The misconception is based around being too lazy to work out performance since generally better class of races will attract better horses and those horses will generally deliver better performances. But every time the performance is poor, you still get on, because you aren't able to assess performance. So you make typical claims that don't relate to the reality. Incredible ignorance/arrogance is you...but that's the norm No wonder you don't invest on NZ racing... For a start HQ is known as a very average course for fast times...ever walked up the straight and the RISE?? ...whereas Puke has been re-measured a number times since their re-build after constant queries re fast times...but you wouldn't know that.. Lets do apples with apples...fruitcake... All on a G3 surface at HQ... NUC ran 1.10.78 ...Last 600 ...34.12 in the G 1 Avantage winning the Karaka 1.10.54...34.91 Just a length from the experienced Avantage and a faster last 600 section Avantage winning an open 2yo the previous start at HQ.. 1.11.38 ...last 600 34.78 Melody Belle winning the previous Karaka 1.10.95....34.84 Stakes performer Felton Road 3rd in 1.11.45...34.92 A host of comparable times for class 2yo's on the same course and track rating And an even better comparison NUC just 0.3 secs away from Stakes performers The Reel Beel and Melt in the G1...at level weights Vastly inexperienced having its 2nd start... Thats the kind of performance you need to factor in when assessing PERFORMANCE read FORM Woddy but you think in your fantasy world...they're not related and unable to be compared ignoramous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomass Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Murray Fish said: would it be true to say that black type races are run and won in faster times? Good point Murray... 9.9/10 they are...and he admitted that... But he thought the slowest maiden on a mid week day at Tauranga didn't beat a G 3 performance after excuses... ...then he thinks there's no unlucky runs..caught 3 wide in the open is ok...apparently they do it in Harness racing ...wtf Harness has anything to do with it f knows But he knows everything... Youll never win with this clown Murray...he keeps lying and massaging facts...and curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 13, 2018 Author Share Posted August 13, 2018 Apples with apples. You're not even using the same day. You know the day when 18 R65 horses ran faster AT Ellerslie. And a bunch of R85 did too. Just about every horse that day over 1200m ran faster. It's pointless since you can't present why black type is superior. I can at least present why it isn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 13, 2018 Author Share Posted August 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Murray Fish said: would it be true to say that black type races are run and won in faster times? No, generally only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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