Left field question.

[Walt]

I appreciate Franco Marek has only won 3 races but the horse clearly has a stack of ability and a lot in the tank to call on. ....but

Could we see him in a big two mile race on the second Tuesday in November five months away?

[Chief Stipe]

Well they might have to drop the entry requirements to get a full field!  So anything could happen!

 

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Walt said:

I appreciate Franco Marek has only won 3 races but the horse clearly has a stack of ability and a lot in the tank to call on. ....but

Could we see him in a big two mile race on the second Tuesday in November five months away?

Personally dont think Franco Marek is  that good!

Yes all you can do is win but to be fair it hasnt beaten anything of any class,
It has looked pretty good on the grass but the big test will be tonight at Addington against better horses than it has raced before!

It has a quite high pacing action in the front which tends to suggest it will be better on the grass surfaces.

Probably have egg on my face but from what I have seen it will struggle to win many more races including tonight!

[Walt]

12 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Personally dont think Franco Marek is  that good!

Yes all you can do is win but to be fair it hasnt beaten anything of any class,
It has looked pretty good on the grass but the big test will be tonight at Addington against better horses than it has raced before!

It has a quite high pacing action in the front which tends to suggest it will be better on the grass surfaces.

Probably have egg on my face but from what I have seen it will struggle to win many more races including tonight!

No problem having a different perspective Brodie. It's always easy to be wise after the event so we've both made a big call here. The more people that underestimate the ability of FM, the better price he will pay.

No he hasn't beaten much but his method is what got my attention. The link Chief put up highlighted a horse with a lot of bottom but it was his first up win at Methven in early March that really got my attention. Was punted like he was past the post. Began beautifully from a difficult draw. Worked but took the lead as he liked on the big Mt Harding track. Was never going to get beaten and won for fun. Not many can do that first up after a spell at Methven. If we assume natural improvement, he's only going to get better. Seems a natural Cup horse in the making to my eye. Time will tell. I may be a year early but ...........

 

https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=5F2157BE-7ECC-478A-A5A1-E1C3803848C5&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

 

I wonder what the TAB would offer me today? 200-1 ? 500-1?

Futures Winner-IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup

 

 

Book closes 2022-11-08T14:00:00+13:00

Self Assured2.00

Copy That6.00

Spankem7.50

South Coast Arden9.00

Krug13.00

Akuta15.00

Pembrook Playboy21.00

Hot And Treacherous26.00

Cranbourne31.00

Bettor Twist34.00

Alta Wiseguy41.00

B D Joe41.00

Shan Noble41.00

Classie Brigade51.00

Franco Indie51.00

Kango51.00

The Falcon51.00

Laver67.00

Bad To The Bone101

Christianshavtime101

Corravalley Star101

Di Caprio101

Henry Hubert101

Steel The Show101

Terry101

Samhara151

Taipo151

 

[Brodie]

11 minutes ago, Walt said:

No problem having a different perspective Brodie. It's always easy to be wise after the event so we've both made a big call here. The more people that underestimate the ability of FM, the better price he will pay.

No he hasn't beaten much but his method is what got my attention. The link Chief put up highlighted a horse with a lot of bottom but it was his first up win at Methven in early March that really got my attention. Was punted like he was past the post. Began beautifully from a difficult draw. Worked but took the lead as he liked on the big Mt Harding track. Was never going to get beaten and won for fun. Not many can do that first up after a spell at Methven. If we assume natural improvement, he's only going to get better. Seems a natural Cup horse in the making to my eye. Time will tell. I may be a year early but ...........

 

https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=5F2157BE-7ECC-478A-A5A1-E1C3803848C5&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

 

I wonder what the TAB would offer me today? 200-1 ? 500-1?

Futures Winner-IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup

 

 

Book closes 2022-11-08T14:00:00+13:00

Self Assured2.00

Copy That6.00

Spankem7.50

South Coast Arden9.00

Krug13.00

Akuta15.00

Pembrook Playboy21.00

Hot And Treacherous26.00

Cranbourne31.00

Bettor Twist34.00

Alta Wiseguy41.00

B D Joe41.00

Shan Noble41.00

Classie Brigade51.00

Franco Indie51.00

Kango51.00

The Falcon51.00

Laver67.00

Bad To The Bone101

Christianshavtime101

Corravalley Star101

Di Caprio101

Henry Hubert101

Steel The Show101

Terry101

Samhara151

Taipo151

 

Of course it would be very boring if everyone agreed with everyone  All the time.

Just from watching Franco Marek’s allweather track runs showed to me that it was a good horse but nothing very glod.

The win at Rangiora it ran the last quarter in 29.9 and did not appear to have much left in the tank?

It also only best some very ordinary horses after having an economical run.
At the end of the day it may well prove Brodie wrong and you correct and I will not be on the money.

Always be a first! Lol

[Walt]

3 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Of course it would be very boring if everyone agreed with everyone  All the time.

Just from watching Franco Marek’s allweather track runs showed to me that it was a good horse but nothing very glod.

The win at Rangiora it ran the last quarter in 29.9 and did not appear to have much left in the tank?

It also only best some very ordinary horses after having an economical run.
At the end of the day it may well prove Brodie wrong and you correct and I will not be on the money.

Always be a first! Lol

I respect your judgment Brodie but disagree. Seems we read races differently.

FM didn't set the pace at Rangiora so had little control over the overall time. The way he took the lead turning in was nice. It said "this race is mine, thanks for coming". As a punter, I crave that look

Not sure how much he had left at the end but seemed comfortable enough. No extra $$ for winning by a bigger margin and we don't know how nailed down he was for that fairly ordinary race. Just looked like a horse comfortably going through the grades. He seems to be being managed well. Can't keep peaking them if you want a longish campaign?

https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=27334517-DC5A-407A-A2DF-60B193157CCA&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

[Brodie]

40 minutes ago, Walt said:

I respect your judgment Brodie but disagree. Seems we read races differently.

FM didn't set the pace at Rangiora so had little control over the overall time. The way he took the lead turning in was nice. It said "this race is mine, thanks for coming". As a punter, I crave that look

Not sure how much he had left at the end but seemed comfortable enough. No extra $$ for winning by a bigger margin and we don't know how nailed down he was for that fairly ordinary race. Just looked like a horse comfortably going through the grades. He seems to be being managed well. Can't keep peaking them if you want a longish campaign?

https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=27334517-DC5A-407A-A2DF-60B193157CCA&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

No problem, time will tell Walt.

Rangiora win didnt impress me too much at all lol

It beat some less than average horses by buggerall and last quarter it ran in 29.9 which is not flash.

Anyway let us see how it performs tonight at Addington

[Walt]

1 hour ago, Brodie said:

No problem, time will tell Walt.

Rangiora win didnt impress me too much at all lol

It beat some less than average horses by buggerall and last quarter it ran in 29.9 which is not flash.

Anyway let us see how it performs tonight at Addington

Debate is healthy Brodie.

I also put value on sectional and overall times but feel when a winning horse is only controlling the final 200 metres of the race the time is virtually irrelevant. 

FM's first run and with no money on him was in March 2021 when trained by Norm Leacock-Jones? Ran ok for third but did work a bit. The winner was a Dunn horse who enjoyed the trail. Seems a much stronger horse when he reappeared a year later for a new trainer at Methven.

His main opposition tonight is the John Hay trained runner that goes well and ran home in better than 56 last start but I feel FM has him covered despite giving away 10 metres. FM is a good standing start horse so I feel it's just a matter of time before he comes calling. Pending on the track condition he will run home in much better than 59.

Even if he does get beat tonight, I stand by my opinion that he is a cup class horse in the making. You don't win first up like he did at Methven by fluke especially with a flood of money on.

[Gammalite]

3 hours ago, Walt said:

I wonder what the TAB would offer me today? 200-1 ? 500-1?

Futures Winner-IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup

 

 

Book closes 2022-11-08T14:00:00+13:00

Self Assured2.00

Copy That6.00

Spankem7.50

South Coast Arden9.00

Krug13.00

Akuta15.00

Pembrook Playboy21.00

Hot And Treacherous26.00

Cranbourne31.00

Bettor Twist34.00

Alta Wiseguy41.00

B D Joe41.00

Shan Noble41.00

Classie Brigade51.00

Com, on Walt ?? You are seriously picking something obscure to stop the ALLSTARS NZ Cup winning streak. ??

Zip, Zero, Nought, Buckleys and almost none I rate your chance . 

Granted I got surprised by ' Copy That'  did stop the brilliant run of 6 Allstars wins in a row,  last year 2021 , so I lost my little investment. SELF ASSURED a clear 2nd on that occasion (thought he was a certainty)  as defending Champion without a handicap. (unlikely to happen again.. lol very likely SA win this year.)

SPANKEM 2nd for the previous 2 years has come back in good order . Hope he goes close as always gives his best.

My question for you (Brodie, Ranga or other) is " Why hasn't NZ's leading Stable got any chances in this race ??  The NZ Cup.

Classie  Brigade still there ? as (Dunn;'s)  best ? as a 9 year old ? after running 3rd in 2019 . Now 50-1 ???  lol.... Where are their Up and Comers ? Or do they just do 'Big Trots' these days and leave the Pacing to Nat and Mark to keep gathering the wins ?

[Walt]

9 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

Com, on Walt ?? You are seriously picking something obscure to stop the ALLSTARS NZ Cup winning streak. ??

Zip, Zero, Nought, Buckleys and almost none I rate your chance . 

Granted I got surprised by ' Copy That'  did stop the brilliant run of 6 Allstars wins in a row,  last year 2021 , so I lost my little investment. SELF ASSURED a clear 2nd on that occasion (thought he was a certainty)  as defending Champion without a handicap. (unlikely to happen again.. lol very likely SA win this year.)

SPANKEM 2nd for the previous 2 years has come back in good order . Hope he goes close as always gives his best.

My question for you (Brodie, Ranga or other) is " Why hasn't NZ's leading Stable got any chances in this race ??  The NZ Cup.

Classie  Brigade still there ? as (Dunn;'s)  best ? as a 9 year old ? after running 3rd in 2019 . Now 50-1 ???  lol.... Where are their Up and Comers ? Or do they just do 'Big Trots' these days and leave the Pacing to Nat and Mark to keep gathering the wins ?

Hey Gammalite,

I'm not seriously saying he'd beat any of the Blue Army in the NZ Cup. If FM made the cup field he'd need to go an extended unbeaten run. Even if he was able to do that he'd still start at long odds. I enjoy math's and gambling. Truth be known, with FM only being a 3 race winner it would be a miracle if he even made the field. Because I rate him highly, if the TAB offered me 300-1 on him to win the Cup today, I'd happily put a couple of hundred each way on him and then cash out on half my wagers when he starts at 25-1 and ride out the rest. Still be a very nice earner. You will know about the glorious uncertainty of sport. 

I'm now in danger of looking like a fool at about 6.55 pm tonight

[Davis]

36 minutes ago, Gammalite said:

Com, on Walt ?? You are seriously picking something obscure to stop the ALLSTARS NZ Cup winning streak. ??

Zip, Zero, Nought, Buckleys and almost none I rate your chance . 

Granted I got surprised by ' Copy That'  did stop the brilliant run of 6 Allstars wins in a row,  last year 2021 , so I lost my little investment. SELF ASSURED a clear 2nd on that occasion (thought he was a certainty)  as defending Champion without a handicap. (unlikely to happen again.. lol very likely SA win this year.)

SPANKEM 2nd for the previous 2 years has come back in good order . Hope he goes close as always gives his best.

My question for you (Brodie, Ranga or other) is " Why hasn't NZ's leading Stable got any chances in this race ??  The NZ Cup.

Classie  Brigade still there ? as (Dunn;'s)  best ? as a 9 year old ? after running 3rd in 2019 . Now 50-1 ???  lol.... Where are their Up and Comers ? Or do they just do 'Big Trots' these days and leave the Pacing to Nat and Mark to keep gathering the wins ?

The Dunns have not got any top pacers. Classie Brigade is their best as you point out mate. The horse is consistent but is unlikely to win a G!. Henry Hubert is Ok but not really the type of horse to feature in G1 races. 

There are not many up comers because many are sold, or sent to Australia to race. I don't blame them for either selling or sending to Aust to race because the horses have more chance of earning over there. The Tellers have some handy horses working through the grades. I think the stable is the one most likely to challenge the All Stars in the next two or three seasons. 

[Brodie]

Walt, the damp track will probably help Franco Marek tonight!

You could well have the last laugh tonight lol

[Brodie]

Very tough win by Franco Marek and sin is all he had to do.

Rough going pacer and the wet track helped him tonight.

While the tracks are soft he will go well lets see whether he goes on a hard track?

[Nowornever]

15 minutes ago, Brodie said:

Very tough win by Franco Marek and sin is all he had to do.

Rough going pacer and the wet track helped him tonight.

While the tracks are soft he will go well lets see whether he goes on a hard track?

Getting to the front helped the most. The track bias is such that you get the front you run top three

[Davis]

47 minutes ago, Nowornever said:

Getting to the front helped the most. The track bias is such that you get the front you run top three

Definitely. Get in front and stay in front, look at Bright Glow led and bolted in looked like Sundee's Sun! 😆

[Gammalite]

3 hours ago, Davis said:

The Dunns have not got any top pacers. Classie Brigade is their best as you point out mate. The horse is consistent but is unlikely to win a G!. Henry Hubert is Ok but not really the type of horse to feature in G1 races. 

Was asking as last year Classie Brigade had the trail behind Copy That in the NZ Cup and couldn't take advantage.

STEEL THE SHOW (who trailed 3 back the fence) ran past him into 4th for the 'Diamond Dunn'  team and wasn't too. far from the top ones in Self Assured and South Coast Arden who filled the placings.

4 hours ago, Walt said:

NZ Cup. If FM made the cup field he'd need to go an extended unbeaten run.

Good picking tonight then Walt ! you're on a winner. As for the Cup , he'd have to be HANDS DOWN like to qualify from loose class in Autumn to get in the Cup and win in the Spring. Hand's Down only one I can think of who did it .

[Brodie]

1 hour ago, Nowornever said:

Getting to the front helped the most. The track bias is such that you get the front you run top three

You are correct it certainly helps greatly but it was a gutsy run by it though!

Will be interesting to see how it goes when the track is fast as I very  much doubt it could pace like that on a hard track and win against good nags!

Appeared to possibly be a bit sore or maybe that is what it normally does?

Edited May 20, 2022 by Brodie

[Walt]

We can all see the same thing differently to fit our perspective. Some may minimize the win of FM while others see it differently.

FM again began beautifully from the stand which will be a huge asset to him along the way especially in Cup races should he make it that far. I do enjoy the way he monsters around the field. That gives him a huge advantage to control a race either from the top or with a sit.

He did work to get past Carana who he gave away 10 metres to at the start. Carana seems a decent enough horse who then smoked his pipe behind FM who was worked over by the Dunn trained Sam's Town. Carana couldn't get past FM in the run home who was entitled to be tired late  but still dug deep to win. That determination will serve him well but if he's going to keep on winning he won't need gut busters like that every time he goes to the races. Ran home in 57 which was solid enough after working on a slushy track.

There was a track bias but that didn't make anything easier for him. I don't believe the slushy track suited him either any more than other runners. He is more than a grass tracker. He looks a horse that is equally comfortable on both surfaces but only time will prove that statement right or wrong. 

Will be interesting to see where he goes next and what their plans are with the horse.

 

https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=97F82741-1F33-49C8-AA19-74650E842750&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

[Walt]

11 hours ago, Brodie said:

You are correct it certainly helps greatly but it was a gutsy run by it though!

Will be interesting to see how it goes when the track is fast as I very  much doubt it could pace like that on a hard track and win against good nags!

Appeared to possibly be a bit sore or maybe that is what it normally does?

I did wonder about his gait Brodie but I put it down to his size etc rather than being sore. I recall some big horses doing great things on the track. 

I've looked at the gait of many trotters and pacers over the years and thought they looked like they could blow to bits at any moment but they still went on to win many races.

Will be an interesting watch in upcoming months.

As an aside, did you get on Over and Under in the first at Addington? Anyone who saw his trial would have been on board. Stable is in form so looked the winner and so it proved. May win a couple more at short notice. 

[Chief Stipe]

The latest win.  Only 4 or is it 5 more to get a NZ Cup start?  They won't get easier.

 

 

[Chief Stipe]

11 hours ago, Brodie said:

Will be interesting to see how it goes when the track is fast as I very  much doubt it could pace like that on a hard track and win against good nags!

I think you might be off the money on this one @Brodie.  He ran some nice sectionals last night so has got some speed.  Did it tough and didn't throw in the towel.

11 hours ago, Brodie said:

Appeared to possibly be a bit sore or maybe that is what it normally does?

I don't think he is sore.  A slushy track and the fact that he has broken in other races previously giving him unruly status would have meant they'd likely have brought his hobbles in a notch.

A big horse with a loping gait he didn't look sore to me but look more constrained within his gear.  That said when a horse came alongside him down the back he smartened up.

[Brodie]

4 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I think you might be off the money on this one @Brodie.  He ran some nice sectionals last night so has got some speed.  Did it tough and didn't throw in the towel.

I don't think he is sore.  A slushy track and the fact that he has broken in other races previously giving him unruly status would have meant they'd likely have brought his hobbles in a notch.

A big horse with a loping gait he didn't look sore to me but look more constrained within his gear.  That said when a horse came alongside him down the back he smartened up.

I am bound to be wrong at some stage, however personally can not see him continuing to win.

The slushy track suited him last night and will have to wait and see how he goes on a good track ar Addington.

There have been some rough going pacers over the years but they dont tend to end up as topliners!

Dick Caskey had a shockingly rough going one, Torle I think it was but all of his were rough as lol

[Walt]

3 hours ago, Brodie said:

I am bound to be wrong at some stage, however personally can not see him continuing to win.

The slushy track suited him last night and will have to wait and see how he goes on a good track ar Addington.

There have been some rough going pacers over the years but they dont tend to end up as topliners!

Dick Caskey had a shockingly rough going one, Torle I think it was but all of his were rough as lol

I've seen some very good horses over the years that had a gait like a dromedary. I may be getting confused but didn't the top trotter Stig have a very ungamely action? I've seen numerous but memory is not what it was.

Funny you mention Dick Caskey with Torle. I remember the horse well. She was out of Torpi a Caskey mare. Then a few years later Toris arrived on the scene also out of Torpi. Torle won 6 and Toris 5. Peter Shand was the usual driver of Toris. I backed Toris in all 5 of his wins after being given the heads up leading into raceday. He won a double at a long weekend meeting. Memory lane stuff.