One for the Conspiracists! Nothing found at the Telfers.

[Chief Stipe]

4 hours ago, Forbury said:

No one is that good of a trainer like Jason Grimson.when I've seen people like him getting the results he is getting there is only one thing behind it.undecteable drugs 100%.i know it's not fact or to slender his image that's just my opinion with no evidence expect he's improving horses two laps lol

No such thing has an undetectable drug.  Grimson's stable has had more scrutiny than any stable in history.  Nothing found.  So you must be suggesting the Stipes are either in on it or are incompetent.

[Basil]

13 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

You base your estimate on what data?  Does every stable report the deaths of horses in work?  

250 meetings a season with an average of 100 horses per meeting (probably on the low side), so that's 25000 horse-starts per season. I can only remember one other standardbred dropping dead like the Telfer-3 in 45+ years, but let's be really conservative and say it's actually 1 per season. So that's a 1 in 25000 chance. Let's be generous and reduce it a bit on the grounds that the Telfer stable has 2.5 times as many horses as the mean stable. So that leaves a 1-season probability of a horse dropping dead in a race conditional on being from a stable the size of the Telfers equal to 1 in 10000, i.e., 0.0001. The probability of this happening to three horses from the same stable in the same season is therefore (0.0001)^3 = 0.

Even if the 1-horse estimate of 0.0001 is out by an order of magnitude, the 3-horse probability is still 1 in 1 billion! The tyranny of mathematics trumps delusional denial.

[Basil]

12 hours ago, the galah said:

I have done a bit of goggling.Theres many studies that you can read the results of.

First you had to define what it was. -sudden athletic death-defined as comprising all fatalities in which there is acute collapse and death in a healthy horse during or immediately after exercise.. That seems to fit what happened to the telfers.

As relates to racetrack incidences of sudden athletic death.

an australian study last year found there was 1-3 deaths per 10,000 starts.

A californian study found 1 per 9,000 starts or 1 per 160,000 training days.

in norway and sweden in 6 years from 2014-1019 they had  a total of 30 sudden athletic horse deaths from pulmonary or cardiac causes. That was from 816,085 race starts.

And here in NZ we had the telfer stable have 3 deaths from not much over 100 starts in the mentioned timeframe.

How anyone could say what happened with the telfer stable is not unusual defies common sense.

As to the RIB's findings.

One study of sudden athletic horse deaths involving 6 countries and different racing jurisdictions found that pathologists were only able to make a definitive diagnosis in 53% of cases.25% were presumed and 22% unknown.

As to treatments being to blame,one study concluded no one can say for certain as yet. Some drugs were believed to be factors,as evidenced by certain trainers having a run of deaths, and treating their horses the same,but their was no definitive proof as yet. Just suggestions their is a link.

So,why should we believe the RIB's  vets,when other expert equine pathologists and researchers have found what i have mentioned above.

 

It's almost certain that at least some of these deaths were not 'clean', i.e., not an accident. I also  suspect at least some of the data come from thoroughbreds. So the Telfer situation is even more of an outlier than the evidence you cite suggests.

But you surely know by now that facts are irrelevant when it comes to the Chief and horse welfare.

[Chief Stipe]

5 minutes ago, Basil said:

250 meetings a season with an average of 100 horses per meeting (probably on the low side), so that's 25000 horse-starts per season. I can only remember one other standardbred dropping dead like the Telfer-3 in 45+ years, but let's be really conservative and say it's actually 1 per season. So that's a 1 in 25000 chance. Let's be generous and reduce it a bit on the grounds that the Telfer stable has 2.5 times as many horses as the mean stable. So that leaves a 1-season probability of a horse dropping dead in a race conditional on being from a stable the size of the Telfers equal to 1 in 10000, i.e., 0.0001. The probability of this happening to three horses from the same stable in the same season is therefore (0.0001)^3 = 0.

Even if the 1-horse estimate of 0.0001 is out by an order of magnitude, the 3-horse probability is still 1 in 1 billion! The tyranny of mathematics trumps delusional denial.

You haven't proven anything other than a statistical anomaly.  Even then there are flaws in your analysis.

You can only remember 1 standardbred dropping dead isn't the basis of a good statistical analysis.

You also appear to have limited your analysis to not include the entire standardbred population in work.  How many horses die of natural causes in a year?  You don't know this figure

But putting your poor statistical analysis to one side you ignore the results of the three post mortems.  Obviously because they don't support your narrative.

 

[Chief Stipe]

4 minutes ago, Basil said:

It's almost certain that at least some of these deaths were not 'clean', i.e., not an accident. I also  suspect at least some of the data come from thoroughbreds. So the Telfer situation is even more of an outlier than the evidence you cite suggests.

But you surely know by now that facts are irrelevant when it comes to the Chief and horse welfare.

Facts are relevant but you overlook the majority of them and focus and misuse a few to support your narrative.

Clearly your agenda is not about animal welfare but is entirely anti-racing.

[paleface adios]

Seadown juice

[Chief Stipe]

8 minutes ago, Basil said:

It's almost certain that at least some of these deaths were not 'clean', i.e., not an accident.

They were ALL clean.  The post mortems found nothing.

Dying of natural causes isn't an accident either  but then you aren't particularly aux fait with definitions.

[Chief Stipe]

BTW there were 139 reported Thoroughbred Deaths at race meetings in Australia last year.  That doesn't include those that died in training.

11 of those 139 deaths were non-catastrophic limb injuries I.e. cardiovascular in origin.

[Forbury]

6 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

No such thing has an undetectable drug.  Grimson's stable has had more scrutiny than any stable in history.  Nothing found.  So you must be suggesting the Stipes are either in on it or are incompetent.

No not all.as you said the stewards even know but cannot find anything.incompetent yes for sure but doing there best to find why his horses are improving laps.i believe he will be caught sooner or later there for you are right about no such thing as undetectable drugs.ive never seen anyone improve horses so much in history and that includes all the biggest cheats of all time.this beats blue magic juice

[Kane21]

20 hours ago, paleface adios said:

Seadown juice

Would they grow an extra leg?

[Gammalite]

23 hours ago, Forbury said:

best to find why his horses are improving laps.i believe he will be caught sooner or later there for you are right about no such thing as undetectable drugs.ive never seen anyone improve horses so much in history and that includes all the biggest cheats of all time

Mate , this young Grimson bloke sure has something going on. We can all hope it's 'above board' but man , you have to wonder. The stewards even locked down the whole stable in the isolation barn once for a month at Menangle to see what was going on .(under cameras and that)  but found nothing. I agree the speed and stamina of these horses defies history as well as belief. Some of the biggest cheats were running with the elephant juice (especially at the gallops) late last century .Now that was a strong mix and did crazy things to the horses. (n.b not administered anywhere I was) but there were several cases in Qld . did it make it to Nz ?

The Perth Cup story with Rocket Racer , one of the greatest hidden stories ever lol...😂 check that one out , incredible.

[Postman]

In Regards to Alta Debonair I think you will find his full brother Warhol dropped dead as did his half Brother Alta Las Vegas And other full brother Alta Maestro but he had something different to the others.

[Chief Stipe]

14 hours ago, Postman said:

In Regards to Alta Debonair I think you will find his full brother Warhol dropped dead as did his half Brother Alta Las Vegas And other full brother Alta Maestro but he had something different to the others.

What does that do to your statistical analysis @Basil?

I see you are blaming an RIB member for the egg supply crisis.  Interested to know how you arrived at that conclusion.

[Chief Stipe]

On 10/01/2023 at 9:52 AM, Basil said:

250 meetings a season with an average of 100 horses per meeting (probably on the low side), so that's 25000 horse-starts per season. I can only remember one other standardbred dropping dead like the Telfer-3 in 45+ years, but let's be really conservative and say it's actually 1 per season. So that's a 1 in 25000 chance. Let's be generous and reduce it a bit on the grounds that the Telfer stable has 2.5 times as many horses as the mean stable. So that leaves a 1-season probability of a horse dropping dead in a race conditional on being from a stable the size of the Telfers equal to 1 in 10000, i.e., 0.0001. The probability of this happening to three horses from the same stable in the same season is therefore (0.0001)^3 = 0.

Even if the 1-horse estimate of 0.0001 is out by an order of magnitude, the 3-horse probability is still 1 in 1 billion! The tyranny of mathematics trumps delusional denial.

Probably rate this analysis as a C- at undergraduate level.

[Honestjohn]

I'm hearing formaline . Don't know how it's administed  though?  Hearing it for 6months or so. 

 

Hj

[Chief Stipe]

29 minutes ago, Honestjohn said:

I'm hearing formaline . Don't know how it's administed  though?  Hearing it for 6months or so. 

 

Hj

Absolute bollocks.

[Honestjohn]

On 1/13/2023 at 1:49 PM, Chief Stipe said:

Absolute bollocks.

Just saaaaying,  what I'm Hearing.  No harm in that.  Chill man. 

 

Hj

[Chief Stipe]

4 hours ago, Honestjohn said:

Just saaaaying,  what I'm Hearing.  No harm in that.  Chill man. 

 

Hj

[Blossom lady]

On 13/01/2023 at 1:49 PM, Chief Stipe said:

Absolute bollocks.

What is absolute bollocks regarding formaline/ formaldehyde?

[Chief Stipe]

25 minutes ago, Blossom lady said:

What is absolute bollocks regarding formaline/ formaldehyde?

The inference that the Telfers are using it and it was the cause of the 3 deaths.  That's bollocks.  Are you suggesting it is a PED in widespread use?  

[Blossom lady]

8 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

The inference that the Telfers are using it and it was the cause of the 3 deaths.  That's bollocks.  Are you suggesting it is a PED in widespread use?  

I agree that would not be the cause of those deaths. 
never heard of a horse dying from being treated for formaldehyde especially if used as recommended. 
yes it is used but not as widespread as what that owners group claim on Facebook. 

[Honestjohn]

16 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

The inference that the Telfers are using it and it was the cause of the 3 deaths.  That's bollocks.  Are you suggesting it is a PED in widespread use?  

No inference by me,  I'm in Canterbury not Auckland.  I have a mate that has horses with the telfers in akld,  I've been there and met them.  I don't think they are cheats,  as I said its what I'm hearing. 

 

Hj

[Honestjohn]

16 hours ago, Blossom lady said:

I agree that would not be the cause of those deaths. 
never heard of a horse dying from being treated for formaldehyde especially if used as recommended. 
yes it is used but not as widespread as what that owners group claim on Facebook. 

I'm aware of that site and I'm not on it. 

 

Hj

[Chief Stipe]

@Basil is at it again.  

 

 

[the galah]

6 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

@Basil is at it again.  

 

 

In my opinion,it was obvious that there was more to the troubles the stable had,than just an unfortunate run of bad luck.Anyone who ignored that simply doesn't rate the issue of animal welfare as high as they should. 

Compare the scrutiny some drivers get when policing the whip rule,to the apparent lack of scrutiny the telfer stable got when this was occuring.When it comes to the issue of animal welfare,i know what is the more important issue.

Having said that,its my opinion the telfer stable has paid a price.

Apart from the obvious unwanted attention,one of the most obvious things any current harness racing followers must have noticed,had they given it any thought,is the  significant reduction in number of horses the stable has been lining up,in particular the North island branch of the stable. Also the recent drop off in performances of many of the horses that raced from that stable last year.Compare their starter numbers and udrs from last year to this.

Also as an indicator,look at the udr of what i thought was the number 1 north island stable driver.James stormont reportedly begun work at the telfer stable at the end of last year. In 2022 he had a udr of 2.173,with 19 wins from 158 starts. This year his udr is 1.111,with 3 wins from 52 starts.

One consistent pattern when it comes to matters like this,you see what i have mentioned above occur after scrutiny,whatever the stable in question may be.Theres been so many examples in history that it's an undeniable fact. 

Currently. I think the telfer stable has made changes and they are doing their best to not make any mistakes that could compromise their horses health.They have recognised their horses health is their top priority. 

As to the issue of the fella who presides over cases and is related to t williams. I don't see that as an issue myself. If there was any preferential treatment,then there should be several instances to refer to as proof. But there seems no pattern of that.

I think discussion on the the telfer thing has almost done its dash,but time will tell. Thats my opinion.

One other sort of related thing,was i happened to catch the box seat for the first time in months and saw our old mate,mickey g,refer to comments that people make on social media, as being a waste of time being listened to or considered. Well,hes right in a lot of ways, peoples opinions are just that.But isn't that what he does on the box seat,give opinions?

Only difference is,people are more inclined to say what they actually are thinking on social media,than he is on the box seat.

Edited May 8, 2023 by the galah