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By All The Aces · Posted
How does a horse push past it's ability?? -
thank you for all your thoughts on the runners above. excellent stuff as usual. I can't see any prices , (they're not up till tomorrow in Aus) so likewise very surprised at the Bar Louis Price. I would think it is a Mr Stockman Punt ?. being a Telfer runner. yeah a 15 horse stand is a Big BIG ask. Looks a good chance with Blair on , and a last start winner . Gets 30m handicap though in the Kurow Trotters Cup ? Is that a bit too much ? If I was Wilson House in that trot, I'd go like mad up in front and the MUSCLE horse would have to trot 3 seconds quicker than you to Win it off 30m. Wilson drives very well too. (probably gallop away now 😂 with Moz on it) I thought we established it was on an earlier thread. ? where Brodie did a thread in June 13th on a ridiculous 40k Bet on a Telfer horse . and we discussed a lot of the Big Bets going on the Telfer runners.? seems to reason a Millionaire Connection of the stable would be the instigator of such actions.? I have no problem with Millionaires supporting the Industry with revenue. and getting some winners too. All good stuff -
What poll are you talking about that I did? If you are talking about the cafe whip use one, it probably mostly includes responses from industry folk doesn't it? Owners, trainers, punters and administrators? Maybe a few bots you think? -
Not about putting on big boy pants….. im not a compulsive gambler, can take it or leave it. Incentives are everywhere, just not gambling, -
interesting take on things. How do we know its mr stockman punting on the telfer horses? maybe it is but wouldn't he want that kept private if he was. as brodie said,whoever it is has to be a losing punter otherwise the tab would restrict that person. also they highlight lots of big bets and you can tell some have to be from people who don't know that much, as they are backing horses at silly odds. As to tu tangata,i agree with you there. Whoever backs that horse these days or tips it,must be eternal optimists. i think i highlighted its record earlier this year on a bit of a yarn. Its one of those horses that has shown for its last 50 starts,in which it has only had 1 win,it adjusts its performances downwards,depending on the grade it runs in. el conqueror another like that from that stable. Really el conqueror and tu tangata should be driven by a claiming junior and once thay get back into that r 40 grade then they can do a buffy northstains and be cash flow machines. the biggest asset to the tab is the whale in my opinion.Not because hes not a good tipster,but because they market him in a way that encourages punters to bet on his horses at unrealistically short odds which they know will mean,in the big picture,they will always come out ahead. buffy northstains did look the winner i thought last night. But at $2.50 not that inviting.A horse that has won 15 races and over 200,000 ,running against 1-2 win horses ,it seemed a bit of a siitter. B negus has things sussed with that horse. Wins a race,gets the half penalties,so all it takes is 3 or 4 misses and its back racing the very same horses its proven time and again for the last 3 years it can beat.the key is the junior claiming driver and driving it quiet for the 3 or 4 runs after it wins,then drive it to give it a chance and ka ching,it will win again . i thought cormoran strike was a flop the week before like you gammalite and couln't have it on that run but it got the ideal run last night and maybe the form in the race the week before may have been stronger after all. dreams pat being tipped by the whale was a very strange tip. Its a horse that loves to break at least 3 times y every time. Its so consistent in being a breaker that no one could possibly tip it with any confidence,but the whale had it in his top 3 bets for the night. Really strange,but the tab must have loved seeing that.why it wasn't stood down again by the stipes was a mystery. actually dream pat is by father patrick.Horses by father patrick, i have posted many times,start off really good when 2 or 3,but then many seem to get some sort of mental issues and like to gallop or just be ignorant once they get to 4 or older.i seehis stud fee is only $5000 this year. i'm similar to brodie,in that i would rather pick something out on a sunday than a friday night,becuase i have more confidence about the form of the sunday horses,except for southland horses. I struggle to follow the southland horses these days due to so many drivers down there being inconsistent in their driving performances. Like down there you have the likes of r mcilwrick. Hes a driver who you simply have no idea what hes going to do.He mostly seems to have a pre race plan to get hopelessly placed and wait for next week,then after doing that about 5 or 6 times he will burst into life and drive them aggressively. Maybe its what he has for breakfast . anyway. i see you've mentioned bar louie in the kurow cup as a possible bet . Its now only paying $2 on fixed odds. To me thats a ridculous low price. Event the $3.20 it opened at seemed much too short.I'm not saying it can't win with the perfect run,just no one should back it at such short odds. And remember the telfer horses also have a lot that break in stands so thats even more of a risk. if i had $1000,which i haven't i would probably be backing bring on the muscle or passendale or maybe miles away. i think to make money you have to be backing horses that pay more than 2 or 3$.
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