Chief Stipe

What we've figured is you can't use the quoting system. Part of your obfuscation strategy. Private Eye did run the fastest last 600m. He made up more ground than the winner and just got pipped on the line. As I said the run of the race in my opinion.

@curious doesn't actually. His method is very much a standard betting strategy although his weighting of certain variables may differ from others he is essentially still looking for value.

What Is Value Betting? A value bet is when you calculate the true odds of an event happening. Then you compare this to the bookmaker’s odds to see if you can make a positive return on a wager. This approach to sports betting requires knowledge of expected value (EV bets) and the bookmaker margin. First, the EV of any wager is the difference in probability placed by the bettor and the bookmaker. Second, the bookmaker margin is the difference between true probability of an event happening and the odds set by the betting brand. Or in 101 terms for the Pasta: If you price a horse at $1.60 and a bookie offers you $2.15 then that is a value bet.

Do you understand the concept of "value" in a punting strategy?

Well then FFS learn how to use the quoting system properly!

Towkay pictured with stallion groom Helen Phinney. Photo: Supplied Vale Towkay LOVERACING.NZ News Desk 2 November 2023 Father time finally caught up with the seemingly ageless Towkay, who was retired from stallion duties at Little Avondale in 2017, and the decision was made earlier in the week to humanely euthanise the son of Last Tycoon. Full of personality and character, Towkay endeared himself to all the staff at Little Avondale Stud after arriving at the Masterton operation in 1999. For LA studmaster Sam Williams, who got on with Towkay “like a house on fire”, the decision was personally very tough, despite the inevitability. “He is the reason the farm is what it is today, we owe him a huge debt of gratitude," Williams said. "Not only was he a most successful sire, but he was so endearing to everyone whose path he crossed." Towkay sired 28 black type performers including three individual Group One winners highlighted by the multiple elite-level winner Viadana. Perhaps his best performer, although he never won an officially recognised Group One, was the outstanding miler Armada. Bred by Tom Jamieson, Armada won some of the most prestigious mile races in Hong Kong in an era when the former British colony was blessed with some great milers, although arguably his best performance came when running second to the Champion Japanese mare Vodka in the Gr.1 Yasuda Kinen (1600m). His progeny adapted perfectly to the training regime and climate in Hong Kong. He had a mortgage in the top five on the Hong Kong sires premiership for years, and one year he had three runners in the Hong Kong Derby. Towkay did it the hard way, his biggest crop was 59 foals, and in the days well shy of today’s astronomical prizemoney levels, his progeny earnings totalled over $34 million. Today his legacy continues through his daughters highlighted by this weekends A$10 million Golden Eagle (1500m) runner Legarto, who is out of the Towkay mare Geordie Girl. Towkay was 29 years of age, something which Williams is proud of and that he attributes to the wonderful care and attention the horse received from LA’s longtime Head Stallion Groom, Helen Phinney.

$2.15 on Boombet (whatever that is!). Best on offer for In Secret is $5.00 at Neds.

Yes $2 would be a backable price. Currently $1.95 on TABAU.

Obviously you are not a student of sectionals. I said it was the run of the race. The winner had a much softer run. Private Eye took it right to Think About It. Got no idea what this gobbledygook means. Where did you get $6.00? I thought you were "waiting until closer to the race"?

I'm not sure what the math is but what are suggesting is there are 16 combinations.

Private Eye ran the fastest last 600m. Only beaten a short half head.

He looked to be grinding a bit in my opinion. The real run of that race was Private Eye. Perhaps The Everest form isn't that good.

Last win over 1200m was October 2021 - over two years ago. Carried 51.5kg. Now 56.5kg at WFA. 1st win in over a year. Ran 12th in the Newmarket. Dropping back to 1200m. Think It Over About It now looking for further (bred to be a miler!).

@curious was spot on with his In Secret price.

Don't Greyhounds have dew claws?

A homeless man in New Zealand has remarkably won NZ$106,000 ($97,781.29 AUD) from a $5 bet on the Melbourne Cup. The man from Wellington — who is only known by his first name Robert — placed the bet at the Petone Working Men’s Club the day before the race, not knowing that the small wager on the $8.4 million Cup, won by Without A Fight, would turn his life upside down. Robert checked his account after the race, and had to look twice when he noticed five extra zeros next to his account balance. “It was quite, quite an emotional process, mate,” he told the NZ Herald, understandably gobsmacked by the result. “I couldn’t believe it, and I thought to myself, ‘there must be something wrong here’.” Robert investigated further before realising that it was no mistake, with a green tick next to his $5 first four easybets and NZ$106,000 in winnings. It was a result that could see Robert turn his life around, and that’s the way he intends to spend the money, after enduring the last nine months living in a garage. “I’ve gone from being homeless, sitting in a garage to finally being able to afford a deposit on a house now,” he said. Due to privacy reasons TAB was unable to disclose further details of the wager. Robert watched the race at the Petone Working Men’s Club with friends, as Mark Zahra piloted $8 chance Without A Fight to Melbourne Cup glory for Anthony and Sam Freedman, securing Zahra’s second win in as many years in the race that stops the nation.

15 combinations. I'd say he took an Easy Bet F4 although I can't recall the % that gives you. I know the person who was involved in setting up the Easy Bet in the old Jet Bet system (is it still in use?) It isn't (wasn't?) a completely random selection but used an algorithm that factored in the favouritism of each horse. So you'd always end up with some favoured horses in your ticket. He advised me that the best chance of success was to wait until closer to start time to get the best chance. If I recall correctly 1 in 3 tickets win.

About 32%. It is possible. You put your bet amount ($5) in the stake box and the system calculates the percentage. I think they round down so 15 combinations.

What about the Quaddie? It was $69,500.40.

I'm guessing the first 2000m of 2023 Cup was the fastest its ever been run. The winner put in a couple of 11.5 second splits between the 2600m and the 3000m. Many horses were gasping a long way out.

It's about 0.12 of a second every 200m. Anything under 3:19 is quick especially on the refurbished Flemington track. That said some trainers and jockeys have referred to the fast pace of yesterday's race. Ciaron Maher called it "hectic"!

In the top 5 fastest times in the last 30 years. The hurdlers couldn't go quick enough let alone stay.

🙂

That's inconsistency.

What was McInerney's level?