Chief Stipe

That is an observation based on her previous races her last one particularly. The 1 draw narrows your options in my opinion. What if the inside of the track is off by Race 9? My point is that drawing 1 is not the best draw tactically. Anyway we are all still waiting for a description of how you incorporate "luck" as a variable into pre-race assessment.

That's not correct however again you miss the point. I said a draw between 2 and 8 would have been better for La Crique.

So which one is perfect? Can you explain why the %'s add to more than 100?

Nope. I cringed everytime I saw a capacity Derby field race to that bend. Given the calibre of our Jockey's at the moment even 13 is too many.

Look forward to seeing your "lucky" speed map for the Derby @holy ravioli.

That said La Crique has the tactical speed at both ends of the race to hold a position from the 1 draw. Plus the field isn't a capacity field so hopefully there won't be that mad dash and dodgems at the first bend.

How can 1 be perfect? Draw 1 at the 2400m at Ellerslie is a tricky draw - that is my observation over years of watching 2400m races at Ellerslie. Just as 11 is tricky over 2200m.

It is just a saying. You haven't explained how you measure your "luck variable" before a race in assessing a horses chance. I haven't mentioned any factors or variables. You've mentioned one - "luck" when it isn't a variable. That's opinion and or (in your case) excuses for why a horse didn't perform up to expectations. LUCK isn't a measurable variable either before or after. Many horses get knocked over or bumped and still win. Was their "luck" a different type of "luck" to those that didn't win?

I disagree. She'll have to be used early to keep her position in the mad dash to the first bend. She has that tactical speed. But then she will either be stuck in front or could be shuffled back. A "perfect draw" would have been between 2 and 8.

It is clearly evident that they have a Stipendiary Steward sitting behind TV screens watching videos of the race and then recommending charges based on technical interpretation of rules. A bit of a revenue gathering exercise if you ask me. Bit like issuing traffic tickets. In this case Noel McCutcheon wouldn't have seen the Crawford misdemeanour and would have been alerted by the studio video Stipe.

La Crique has drawn 1. Not an ideal draw in this field.

The Judgement says Crawford "has a clear record".

It isn't bad luck. More often a better horse wins on the day because it either performed above its assessment or the favourite performed below theirs or both. The point is you can't measure your variable of "luck" before a race.

It's not a variable. What is "luck"? You can't measure it before the race and you can't measure it after the race. The fact that you can't measure it before the race means you can't include it in your assessment of chance. No you are. If you can't measure a variable then it isn't worth worrying about or it isn't actually a variable e.g. luck! At least 1 in 3 favourites do. Odds and prices are assessments of chance based on measurable variables (unless you use your methods).

Heartbreaking images: Flood shock for racing participants in NSW Murwillumbah racetrack submerged under water (image: Melinda Turner/Twitter) By Adam Dobbin 06:37pm • 01 March 2022 0 Comments Leading trainer Matt Dunn was preparing to jump on a Jet Ski on Tuesday afternoon in a bid to reach his flood-ravaged Murwillumbah stables to assess the damage. Like much of Northern NSW, Murwillumbah has been the subject of major flooding, the extent laid bare in photos that have emerged of Murwillumbah Race Club where the winning post is almost completely submerged with water. The Tweed River peaked at a staggering 6.5m. “The water is beginning to recede now so I’m about to jump on a jetski and get to the stables and assess the fallout,” Dunn said. Murwillumbah has been the subject of major flooding (pic: Melinda Turner/Twitter) “Thankfully we are a bit higher where we are located to some of the other trainers which had to relocate to Ballina and other areas. “This flooding has peaked higher than back in 2017 and there were definitely some anxious moments. “Now the clean-up job begins but when you look at what the people in Lismore are experiencing it seems like nothing at all.” Dunn was in Melbourne on Monday when receiving word about the imminent flood threat before flying back to the region this morning to be on deck for the recovery mission with his staff. A horse in a stable with rising floodwaters (pic: Melinda Turner/Twitter) “It got quite anxious yesterday just because of how quickly it all happened,” Dunn said. “Yesterday morning the staff were working horses on the treadmill then a few hours later it’s all completely underwater. “The horses though are incredibly resilient. Most people would think that having significant water in their boxes would have them highly strung and panicking but they really do take in their stride. “I remember back in 2017 when we went through it we had winners six days later.” Trainer Matthew Dunn. In the coming days, Dunn will be on hand to aid his nine-strong staff at his Murwillumbah stables in picking up the pieces. “I’m not sure how much I can do but we’ll all get in and do our bit,” Dunn said. “To see images of the track and winning post underwater is pretty confronting and unfortunately when you live in these parts flooding like this is a part of life. “It’s a very emotional time for a lot of people. And when you see the devastation it is causing in areas like Lismore it puts it all in perspective. “Cleaning out stables and replacing some carpet doesn’t seem as significant.”

Luck isn't a variable. You can't measure "luck". Next. You're the type of punter the TAB wants.

Why bother? You're the idiot telling us that every horse has the same chance regardless of variables.

Not WILL but LIKELY to. You don't appear to be able to do that as you price them all the same. Numbers 1 through 40 are all paying $1.50!

They don't all have an equal chance of winning like a Lotto Ball. You just stick to choosing random numbers.

So back on topic..... Theoretically Crawford could have let his horse be pushed down onto the pegs and then could have pushed out again as long as he didn't break his horse up! What a dumb dumb dumb rule!

If TAB NZ couldn't run pokies then revenue would be down 10m+. That's how the RIB is funded.

Go Brodster!!!!

He is still interested. Obviously has a passion for harness racing and from what I've heard scares every bookie in the industry. He just needs to work around the system.

In the first instance it isn't HRNZ it's the RIB. But I agree HRNZ should stand up and take a position. Otherwise the RIB will kill harness racing. Hell a couple of weeks ago we had the CEO of the RIB saying that banning whips was inevitable. It isn't his call and if that happens then you may as well hand over all assets to the Thoroughbreds!

How's Glenda doing?