barryb

You label a lot too T, all of them on Monday 2 days late.

No I dont factor n weight in any race, I have no idea how to calculate it effectively to be able gain any value out of it. I dont do blanket removals, like never backing No1 or back markers on so called bias surfaces, blinkers on makes them run faster, the trainer says so and so or any other absurd theory I have read from you and T. I have data from over 30,000 races across Australasia and it shows me weight is not a factor that is worth me spending any time on. My energy is better spent on Predicted Pace and in running positions.

So no 2 that is .5kg below no 1 you don't put a line through?

Have a read of this, sums it up perfectly. https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-premium/simon-rowlands/myth-busting-weight-does-not-matter-180313-43.html

So on the basis of 2 races you conclude that weight is a very important factor in racing?. Please advise how much stock you put in it? is it 10% or 20% or higher?.

https://www.rita.org.nz/racing-industry-transition-agency-established

Its to do with a concept called value which you would struggle to understand T, I will try and make it as basic as possible so you can at least get the gist. 1 or 2 bookies offer place odds significantly above competitiors and miles above NZ TAB. for example: NZ TAB might be $7.50 Other bookies between $7.50 & $10.00 These 1 or 2 $12.00 - $14.00 Now that is an opportunity to exploit T, which I have done, now the amounts they will take is low before moving so its often first in first served, it was a nice little earn whilst it existed.

Thats not nice Thomass. You are a bitter person T.

Haha, classic. So a few cups races make it gospel then. Your brother Thomass will be along shortly to support your looney theory.

What a load of drivel Thomass, I wouldn’t know Mardigras if I bumped into him on the street, Mardi is right though, you are a site destroyer.

PS: dont bother replying as I have given up on this thread as a lost cause.

Thats rich, when you post swearing constantly at people whom disagree with you.

In the price range I put up that would be a given that you will take some serious hits, thanks anyway Thomass for pointing it out. It is interesting that you have now resorted to creating another identity to have someone to converse with.

You dumb C, it is me v everyone else, again showing you have NFI. I canteven be bothered explaining it to you, you are not smart enough to absorb it anyway.

Thats becuase most punters are like you, a Loser. The fact you even made that mad statement says that you just have NFI.

Worst track for what? Its a super track for punting, smart punters whom understand tempo and positioning can clean up there. The facilities are horrible and it’s cold as hell there, however for a shitty winters day there was a huge crowd of locals there today and it’s bloody sad the day couldn’ continue.

You 100% sure the track was responsible?. I was at the track and to me she was up near the lead and looked to be crowded and fell. I heard that quite a few of the jockeys wanted to continue.

Race 3 #5 at huge odds

Winner at $8 Race 2 #17 at $19 fixed

On course at TA today. Race 1 8 and 10 are standouts in the cage.

As I suspected, no one willing to place selections up today.

Correct, direct to them, a few of my accounts have virtually never had a winning bet with them. Constantly topping them up, uncanny how losing bets keep falling at the same bookie so often. I am sure you can even understand that.

To help you even further, I dont have a heck of a lot seperating Rikki Tikki Tavi & Rocanto, except ones paying $2.50 and the other $12.00, I am wrong about 88% of the time but at $2.50 I need to be right a bloody lot more than at $12. I am happy to put up all my bets for NZ tomorrow & prices & where taken if you and Sunlineboy do the same before the races start. My current stats are for the last 2 yrs 394 winners, 3367 bets (11.7%), av divi $10.74, 25.7% POT My current run of outs is 40.

ok here we go, education process for you. Lets look at Rocanto's race. Tempo slow/mid In running positions I have predicted 2,8,3,6,5,4,1 Rocanto rated $6.50 by me current fixed $12 significant overlay for me, slow pace predicted, sitting most likely behind the leader in either 2 or 8, has a quality jockey to give it every winning hope. For me the most important factor in determining the outcome of the race is the tempo, now unlike your bias factoring which is pure guess work, I can predict with some certainty (around 65% accuracy) the likely tempo based on the last 10 runs of each runner in the race. Under what I mentioned above, the 1 Seventh Up is terribly placed to win the race, it may well do so as its the class act of the field but its going to need every single favour going its way & at $4.40 it can go around without mine on it.

Signed up many more losers have you, fingers crossed they lose this weekend so you have a winning one.